Game Analysis - Game 18 - UConn vs St. John's

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Every time we play St. John's I expect us to be playing at Madison Square Garden. No such luck! What an opportunity it would be if the women got to play in that venue. But, as luck would have it we will be playing this one in Queens at Carnesecca Arena. St. John's is a very small team with small pesty, quick guards. Will this bother UConn? We will have to see. Another big question hanging over this game is whether or not we will see the return of Paige Bueckers in this one. Purely speculation on my part...I am going to speculate that there is a possibility so I will do two separate player analysis one with Paige and one without.

St. John's goes about 7-8 players deep and will probably start: Kylie Levelle, a 6'3" - Junior - Forward; Phoenix Gedeon, a 6'0" - Senior - Forward; Lashae Dwyer, a 5'6" - Senior - Guard; Ber'Nyah Mayo, a 5'6" guard; Jailah Donald, a 5'7" - Junior - Guard. They will bring Ariana Vanderhoop, a 5'9" - Graduate - Guard, and Owen Skye, a 5'7" - Junior - Guard off the bench Because St. John's is height-challenged UConn should dominate the boards. The major thing UConn needs to do in this game is to take care of the basketball. St. John's is a defensive team...holding teams to only 53.8 points per game. They get after the basketball and cause an average of 18.9 turnovers per game with 9.3 steals per game. St. John's also averages 19 points per game of turnovers. Even though St. John's is 11-5 overall (1-4 in Conference Play), UConn should win this game quite easily with or without Paige.

RPI / SOS:

St. John's RPI - 86
St. John's SOS - 129

UConn's RPI - 6
UConn's SOS - 13

St. John's opponents' RPI - 7, 30, 52, 71, 119, 126, 136, 159, 171, 179, 223, 236, 239, 240, 267, 358
St. John's opponents' SOS - 8, 14, 42, 64, 74, 80, 111, 146, 176, 177, 179, 210, 220, 224, 235, 362

UConn's opponents' RPI - 5, 11 12, 31, 52, 62, 68, 80, 80, 89, 98, 126, 129, 132, 148, 266, 267
UConn's opponents' SOS - 6, 8, 15, 17, 22, 25, 25, 32, 34, 42, 71, 146, 162, 229, 232, 322, 356

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Scenario I (With Paige)

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS - Freshman - Center vs Kylie Levelle, 6'2" - Junior - Forward - Kylie is St. John's tallest player and she averages 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks. Jana should be able to assert herself in this game Jana averages 6.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Jana did get 4 blocks against Georgetown and it would be great to see her build off of that defensive performance. While statistically Jana and Kylie seem even...based on the tougher competition that Jana has faced. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Phoenix Gedeon, 6'0" - Senior - Forward - Phenix averages 6.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists. She will have her hands full trying to contain Sarah and more than likely will not be able to do so. Sarah averages 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Sarah also averages 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers. 6'0" - RS - Senior - Guard vs Lashae Dwyer, 5'6" - Senior - Guard - Lashae is St. John's most productive player. Lashae averages 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 3.3 steals, and hits one three-pointer per game. Paige is averaging 19.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.1 steals, and .5 blocks per game. Paige also hits 1.9 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate - Guard vs Ber'Nyah Mayo, 5'6" - Graduate - Guard - Ber'Nyah averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Azzi since Paige has been a DNP has stepped it up and I would expect her to continue to build upon that. Azzi is averaging 10.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and Azzi hits 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlynn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jailah Donald, 5'7" - Junior - Guard - Jailah averages about 30 minutes per game. Her stat line is 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and .8 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. While statistically, these two players have similar stats I believe that Kaitlyn will have a greater impact on the game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Scenario II (Without Paige Bueckers)

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - RS - Freshman - Center vs Kylie Levelle, 6'2" - Junior - Forward - Kylie is St. John's tallest player and she averages 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, .8 steals, .8 blocks. Jana should be able to assert herself in this game Jana averages 6.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists, .5 steals, and .7 blocks. Jana did get 4 blocks against Georgetown and it would be great to see her build off of that defensive performance. While statistically Jana and Kylie seem even...based on the tougher competition that Jana has faced. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Phoenix Gedeon, 6'0" - Senior - Forward - Phenix averages 6.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, .9 assists. She will have her hands full trying to contain Sarah and more than likely will not be able to do so. Sarah averages 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Sarah also averages 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzie Fudd, 5'11" Graduate - Guard vs Lashae Dwyer, 5'6" - Senior - Guard - Lashae is St. John's most productive player. Lashae averages 14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 3.3 steals, and hits one three-pointer per game. Azzi is averaging 10.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 steals, and Azzi hits 1.8 three-pointers per game. Azzie could go off for 20-plus points and could bang down a bunch of 3s but in the other statistical areas, Lashae has the advantage. Based on the way Azzie is playing of late.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" Sophomore - Guard vs Ber'Nyah Mayo, 5'6" - Graduate - Guard - Ber'Nyah averages 9.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Azzi since Paige has been a DNP has stepped it up and I would expect her to continue to build upon that. Ashlynn averages 8.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 steals, and hits 1.6 three-pointers per game. Given that Ashlynn has faced tougher competition this year than Ber'Nyah.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlynn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Jailah Donald, 5'7" - Junior - Guard - Jailah averages about 30 minutes per game. Her stat line is 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and .8 three-pointers per game. Kaitlyn averages 5.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and .6 three-pointers per game. While statistically, these two players have similar stats I believe that Kaitlyn will have a greater impact on the game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

If Paige is not playing then UConn will bring 18.7 points, and 10.2 rebounds off the bench. With Paige playing then UConn will bring 27.1 points, and 12.7 rebounds off the bench. St. John's will bring 15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game will be played at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, New York. While St. John's might be "New York's Team" I think the home-court advantage will not be enough for the Red Storm to pull off the upset. UConn is too big, too deep, too talented, and UConn's defense is sure to cause St. John's a lot of problems. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

It almost isn't fair to include this in the analysis because there are very few coaching staff in women's college basketball that could rival UConn's storied coaching staff. However, because coaching has a huge impact on how the game is played it must be included. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE: (With Paige)

UConn - 88
St John's - 45
MOV - 43

SCORE: (Without Paige)

UConn - 81
St. John's - 49
MOV - 32

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei! This is such a service and provides the starting point for lots of discussion.

A few things leap out at me, remembering last year‘s games against SjU.

First, Ber’Nyah Mayo is a very good scorer and a clutch player. So is Skye Owen. They don’t wilt under pressure. I don’t know how the matchups will play out defensively, and I’m sure there will be a lot switching. And this is a veteran group with a lot of experience in this system. In any event, I doubt any of the SjU guards will be able to overcome any of the UConn guards as scorers. Paige, Azzi Ash, KK, Kaitlyn, all will be able to score against them one on one. But this may not be the end of the story here.

Second, the SjU guards are scrappy, as you suggested, with quick feet and hands and a lot of nerve, and this will make it an interesting game. They will take lots of risks to get in the passing lanes and to collapse on anyone driving into the lane. This could be an issue for Jana and Ice if they are foolhardy enough to bring the ball down when they’re in the low post.

Third, I suspect the low post matchups may prove quite challenging for Jana and Ice (If she’s well enough to play). Sometimes, guarding a smaller player can be challenging, especially if they’re quick and confident. I also expect the SjU guards will collapse on Jana when she gets the ball in the low post. Defense is as much about moving one’s feet as one’s hands. It will be interesting to see how she responds to this challenge.

Finally, I’ve been thinking about your coaching comparison and I’m not sure how to understand it. Obviously, Geno has built a remarkable program, and knows how to develop individuals and a team. He also knows how to prepare them for a game and to make adjustments in a game. But the first part may not be all that relevant to this sort of analysis. Joe Tartamella hasn’t built a dominant program (yet), but he is an excellent coach in the other respects. If I only look at the things that are relevant to this matchup taken in isolation, I’m not sure there’s really an advantage we can grant to UConn because of Geno. I’d say the same for many of the BE coaches we’ll face. Denise Dillon is an excellent coach. So are Doug Bruno (with best hopes for his recovery), Austin Parkinson, Darnell Haney and Jim Flannery.

 

[MSGRET]

Thanks again, Sensei! This is such a service and provides the starting point for lots of discussion.

A few things leap out at me, remembering last year‘s games against SjU.

First, Ber’Nyah Mayo is a very good scorer and a clutch player. So is Skye Owen. They don’t wilt under pressure. I don’t know how the matchups will play out defensively, and I’m sure there will be a lot switching. And this is a veteran group with a lot of experience in this system. In any event, I doubt any of the SjU guards will be able to overcome any of the UConn guards as scorers. Paige, Azzi Ash, KK, Kaitlyn, all will be able to score against them one on one. But this may not be the end of the story here.

Second, the SjU guards are scrappy, as you suggested, with quick feet and hands and a lot of nerve, and this will make it an interesting game. They will take lots of risks to get in the passing lanes and to collapse on anyone driving into the lane. This could be an issue for Jana and Ice if they are foolhardy enough to bring the ball down when they’re in the low post.

Third, I suspect the low post matchups may prove quite challenging for Jana and Ice (If she’s well enough to play). Sometimes, guarding a smaller player can be challenging, especially if they’re quick and confident. I also expect the SjU guards will collapse on Jana when she gets the ball in the low post. Defense is as much about moving one’s feet as one’s hands. It will be interesting to see how she responds to this challenge.

Finally, I’ve been thinking about your coaching comparison and I’m not sure how to understand it. Obviously, Geno has built a remarkable program, and knows how to develop individuals and a team. He also knows how to prepare them for a game and to make adjustments in a game. But the first part may not be all that relevant to this sort of analysis. Joe Tartamella hasn’t built a dominant program (yet), but he is an excellent coach in the other respects. If I only look at the things that are relevant to this matchup taken in isolation, I’m not sure there’s really an advantage we can grant to UConn because of Geno. I’d say the same for many of the BE coaches we’ll face. Denise Dillon is an excellent coach. So are Doug Bruno (with best hopes for his recovery), Austin Parkinson, Darnell Haney and Jim Flannery.

I don't see St. John's giving UConn any challenges in this game. First of all if you just look at the head to head match-ups of the Big East teams that both have played.

Villanova - Massey #65
St. John's L 71-57 at Nova -14
UConn W 83-52 at Nova +31

Providence - #131
St. John's L OT 59-52 at Prov -7
UConn W 67-41 at XL Center +26

Xavier - 251
St. John's 60-39 at Xavier +21
UConn 81-27 at Gampel +54

St. John's other two Conference games are both losses, 75-56 to Creighton #28 and 67-60 to DePaul #107.

UConn's other Conference wins are 2x wins against # 131 Georgetown 79-44 and 73-55, then the 77-45 win at #53 Marquette.

UConn averages 76.7 pts a game while giving up only 44, while St. John's averages 57 pts on offense and gives up 62.2.

According to Massey UConn's rated #5 with a SOS of #5, while St. John's is #86 with a SOS or #116. He also has UConn as a 96% chance of winning and the score as 74-52. While ESPN has UConn as a 98.6 favorite vs a 1.4% for the Johnies.