Game Analysis - Game 16 - UConn vs Xavier

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

UConn will face a Big East Bottom dweller on Wednesday without their All-American Paige Bueckers. I must admit it was one scary moment when Paige had her leg and ankle rolled over by a Providence player. I watched the video over and over and I was convinced that it was a season-ending injury. My heart sank to my feet. I think Paige, the UConn Huskies, and the Husky Nation were all given a blessing. The fact that she may only miss 0ne to two weeks (a couple of games) was frankly much better than I expected. I do not believe that Paige will be needed for this game. It will give the bench players and the current role players a chance to work out some kinks as we move toward better competition and the postseason.

For Xavier: - THE GOOD: They can go 8 deep, I suspect with the way UConn pressures the ball they are going to need all of them. They have 4 players who can hit the three: Meri Kaverva (1.43 / game); Daniela Lopez (1.0 / game); Aizhanique Mayo (1.43 / game); Petra Oborilova (1.2 / game). They may be somewhat pesty on the defensive end causing 17.6 turnovers on their opponents. THE BAD: They are 5 and 9 on the season so far. Their opponents average 2 more steals per game than they do; They only hit 6.4 three-pointers per game; Their opponents average 4 points more off-turnovers than they do; Their opponents average 10 more rebounds per game than they do; They are a small team with starters being 6'3", 6'2", 5'9", 5'7", 5'7". THE UGLY: They only average 56.7 per game; Their RPI is 291 and their SOS is 234; They only average 28.8 rebounds per game; They turn the ball over 18 times per game.

RPI / SOS:

Xavier - RPI = 291
Opponent's RPIs: 10, 55, 67, 81, 100, 103, 144, 145, 159, 292, 309, 315, 322, 362

UConn - RPI = 4
Opponent's RPIs: 12, 14, 17, 35, 54, 55, 65, 92, 105, 120, 122, 126, 128, 157, 240

Xavier SOS = 234
Opponent's SOS: 15, 24, 54, 73, 82, 101, 129, 146, 203, 245, 275, 328, 356, 358

UConn - SOS = 7
Opponent's SOS: 5, 11, 17, 18, 23, 24, 29, 34 35, 70, 223, 247,280, 306,316

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Jana El-Alfy, 6'5" - R-Freshman - Center vs Loren Christie, 6'3" - Graduate - Forward - Loren is Xavier's biggest player at 6'3". Loren averages 10.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .6 steals, and 2.2 blocks per game. Unfortunately, she is turnover prone committing 4.14 per game. Loren will be facing Jana El-Alfy who is playing better each game she plays. I hope that this game will allow Jana to build on what she has been doing of late. Jana averages: 5.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, .7 assists, and .5 steals per game. I would expect we will see Ice Brady splitting time with Jana in this game as I would expect to see Irune Orio splitting time with Loren. ADVANTAGE - XAVIER

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Freshman - Forward vs Petra Oborilova, 6'2" - Petra plays about 25 minutes per game and is averaging 5.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and .5 steals per game. Petra also hits 1.21 three-pointers per game. Unfortunately for Petra is will played by Sarah Strong who I believe is on track to becoming an All-American by the end of the season. Sarah is averaging 17.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. She also hits on 1.9 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11' - Graduate - Guard vs Meri Kanerva, 5'9" - Freshman - Guard - Junior - Forward - Meri only a freshman is Xavier's most productive player. She averages 11.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and makes 1.43 three-pointers per game. She will be guarded by Azzi who I believe has a great opportunity in this game with Paige more than likely not playing as being UConn's number two scoring option. I am looking for Azzi to get back on track as being the most dangerous three-point shooter in the college game. Azzi averages 8.3 points, 2.3 rebounds 1.7 assists, 1 steal, and hits on 1.44 three-pointers per game. Given the level of competition Azzi has faced versus Meri and Azzi's overall experience...
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Sophomore - Guard vs Tae'lor Purvis, 5'7" - Graduate - Guard - With Paige probably sitting this game out...I wondered if Geno would go with Ashlynn or KK Arnold. After thinking about it...I think Geno feels that KK is already rounding out into form and that Ashlynn is lagging slightly behind her play of last year. So, I figured he just might want to give Ashlynn the start and help build her confidence as he knows he will need both KK and Ashlynn in the postseason. Tae'lor Purvis is averaging: 6.1 points; 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Ashlynn is averaging 8.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and hits on 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen, 5'9" - Graduate - Guard vs Julia Garcia Roig, 5'7" - Sophomore - Guard - Julia 5'7" became a starter 4 games ago after Irune Orio 6'2" went to the bench after starting in 6 games. Given the height disparity between the two players, I have to think the coach wanted more speed on the floor. Julia averages 5.2 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Kaitlyn averages: 6.1 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn's bench players should see a lot of minutes in this one. With Paige out of the game and Ashlynn in the starting role, the UConn bench will bring 18 points and 9.8 rebounds into the game. Xavier's bench will bring 20.1 points and 12. 1 rebounds into the game. Given that UConn plays much stronger competition than Xavier I don't see Xavier's 2 points and 3 rebounds as much of an advantage.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Hall of Fame coaches Geno Auriemma and Chris Daly along with their cracker-jack coaching staff will have the Huskies prepared to play without their super-star All-American shooting guard. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn playing in front of the home crowd at the XL Center... Too much height, skill, and experience.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 92
Xavier - 41
MOV - 51

 

[my2cents]

It seems so far this year that the entire Bg East could be classified as "Bottom Dwellers"

 

[cferraro04]

It seems so far this year that the entire Bg East could be classified as "Bottom Dwellers"

My2cents you aren't going to get any change on this transaction. Given that there are 362 teams in women's basketball The "entire Big East Conference could hardly be classified as bottom dwellers. The RPI of the Big East Conference Teams are as follows: UConn 4; Creighton 10; Seton Hall 46; Villanova 54; Georgetown 55; St. John's 59; Providence 120; Marquette 122; Butler 140; DePaul 159; Xavier (the Big East Bottom Dweller) 291.

 

[Glenn]

Xavier looks to be a fair bit worse than the rest of the conference. The first column are the national rankings from Massey.

ank	Team	Record	PF	PA	Record	PF	PA	Record	PF	PA	Record	PF	PA
5	Connecticut	13-2 0.867	79.2	53.1	6-1 0.857	80.1	47.3	2-1 0.667	76.0	58.7	4-0 1.000	76.5	45.5
27	Creighton	12-3 0.800	73.9	64.1	4-0 1.000	76.0	67.5	6-2 0.750	73.3	62.5	4-0 1.000	71.3	55.0
56	Seton Hall	12-3 0.800	66.4	57.5	9-1 0.900	68.7	51.5	3-0 1.000	64.7	57.3	4-0 1.000	62.5	53.8
61	Marquette	10-4 0.714	69.3	56.1	7-1 0.875	74.3	54.4	2-3 0.400	60.4	60.4	2-1 0.667	60.0	63.3
66	Villanova	7-8 0.467	64.7	65.8	4-4 0.500	64.9	66.3	2-2 0.500	72.0	68.5	1-2 0.333	59.3	65.3
81	St John's	10-4 0.714	63.9	53.9	5-2 0.714	65.0	52.0	5-2 0.714	62.7	55.9	0-3 0.000	55.0	68.3
108	Georgetown	8-6 0.571	64.6	60.4	4-1 0.800	70.0	50.8	3-3 0.500	61.5	68.2	1-2 0.333	59.7	64.7
109	Butler	10-7 0.588	67.0	61.1	6-2 0.750	71.3	53.5	2-4 0.333	60.2	67.0	0-4 0.000	52.5	65.0
118	DePaul	7-9 0.438	64.8	69.1	5-4 0.556	66.0	65.1	2-3 0.400	62.8	68.6	2-1 0.667	63.3	60.3
126	Providence	8-9 0.471	57.0	58.4	5-3 0.625	62.3	58.4	2-4 0.333	51.3	58.0	1-3 0.250	46.5	57.5
245	Xavier	5-9 0.357	56.7	64.0	4-4 0.500	55.4	58.1	0-4 0.000	57.3	75.8	0-3 0.000	51.7	70.

 

[my2cents]

My2cents you aren't going to get any change on this transaction. Given that there are 362 teams in women's basketball The "entire Big East Conference could hardly be classified as bottom dwellers. The RPI of the Big East Conference Teams are as follows: UConn 4; Creighton 10; Seton Hall 46; Villanova 54; Georgetown 55; St. John's 59; Providence 120; Marquette 122; Butler 140; DePaul 159; Xavier (the Big East Bottom Dweller) 291.

So far we have played 4 games with a margin of victory 34 points a game, BEFORE we play the worst team in the league. If MOV of 32 is the closest game we play, the Big east is more like watching the Washington Generals play the Harlem Globetrotters.

 

[HuskyNan]

For Xavier: - THE BAD: They are 5 and 9 on the season so far. Their opponents average 2 more steals per game than they do; They only hit 6.4 three-pointers per game;

Which means some little-used player will go off from the perimeter. It happens every time

 

[HuskyNan]

It seems so far this year that the entire Bg East could be classified as "Bottom Dwellers"

 

[Zarathustra]

Xavier is rebuilding: A new H.C., 10 foreign students from
8 counties (England, Finland, Australia, Spain (3), Serbia,
Germany, Croatia, and Slovakia.) The Xavier roster includes 6 transfer
students. In about 2 -3 years (perhaps) they will be in a
more competitive position, e.g. like the improved Butler team.
A digression here: While I was thinking about Xavier I was
reminded about a quote by Sydney "Bean" Douglas once gave to
a sport's reporter. "BEAN" said: "You never lose. You
either win or you learn" (a quote from Nelson Mandela). So
also with Xavier?? Since the "BEAN" is coming to UCONN for
a visit, here is another " Bean" quote.
She once said: "Trusting
the journey and embracing the unexpected". To my way of
thinking, from that last quote, Sydney and Paige have a lot in common.
I hope "BUCKETS" and the "BEAN" hit it off during "Bean's" unofficial visit
in about 11 days (Seton Hall game). Another interesting set of data:
FYI Bean's date of birth is September 16, 2008, so by age, she is more like someone in the class of 2027 than her current class 2028. EG. Jordyn Palmer was
born November 6, 2008, less than two months later than Sydney and
Jordyn one of UCONN's "offers" for the class of 2027. Could the
"Bean" leave Ontario Christian with her teammate Kaleena Smith, who is in the
Class of 2027?? Sorry about that transgression...it is just how my
mind sometimes works (or doesn't work.... as my wife tells me!!)

 

[donalddoowop]

Which means some little-used player will go off from the perimeter. It happens every time

Some little used player and a veteran who has hit only one three pointer this season.

 

[HuskyNan]

Some little used player and a veteran who has hit only one three pointer this season.

Who has been 1-8 in the first 15 games

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!

I like your thinking, except for your conclusion about Jana (and Ice) having a disadvantage against Christie and Orio. She’s just too much bigger and stronger than either of the Xavier players. As Geno is undoubtedly telling Jana right now, “They don’t have Olajuwon on their roster.“ Could Jana have a double-double tomorrow? That would be interesting, and encouraging for her.

I am also very curious to see how KK’s newfound offensive confidence plays out in this game. I expect Ash and Azzi are likely to step up, but KK could ‘go off’. It could be a big game for her.

 

[cferraro04]

Bone Dog...I can't say enough prayers of thanks that Paige's injury was such that we only lost her for 1 or 2 weeks. I believe this team is nowhere near hitting its potential this season. I feel strongly that another gear hasn't kicked in yet.

1. At least one of our bigs will have that "break out game" that will define them going forward...it is just a matter of time.

2. Paige and Azzi have yet to play with each other when they are both at optimal efficiency.

3. As we watch KK Arnord rounding out into form, one must wonder when Ashlynn Shade will hit her Sophomore leap.

4. We know we have a great point guard in Kaitlyn Chen...she showed it at Fairfield University. She is getting more and more comfortable in the UConn system. I think better days are coming for her.

5. Sarah Strong has quietly shown the world why she was the number one recruit coming out of high school last year. Don't you just feel like there is still another level for her?

6. Aubrey will be returning very soon...after she gets her sea legs under her have people forgotten how athletic she is, who will contain her when she is on the court with what could likely be three All-American players?

7. Morgan and Allie are great freshmen guards...we know that Allie is a flat-out assassin from three-point land. Morgan is beginning to prove she belongs on the court. She is a 6'2" guard...you rarely get that kind of size in a guard...she is going to be a complete mismatch at some point.

8. Then there is Qadence it is a mystery why she isn't catching on sooner...she is talented, and she has a nose for the ball...watch her on defense she is a menace and she can rebound the hell out of the ball. We also know that she can shoot. Will the real Qadence please show up?

9. Lastly, I haven't forgotten about Caroline. I don't know what the hold-up is for her getting back on the court...but, can you imagine UConn with a healthy Caroline Ducharme? Nobody, but nobody is going to want to face UConn in March.

 

[Bone Dog]

2. Paige and Azzi have yet to play with each other when they are both at optimal efficiency.

I’ve wondered about this for a while. What would it be like to have both Paige and Azzi firing on all cylinders next to Sarah? Are there enough possessions in a game to allow the three of them to really break out? Paige averages ~20ppg and Sarah is around 17ppg and they both shoot around 56%. We saw in her shortened sophomore year that Azzi is perfectly capable of putting up similar numbers.

In a typical game, UConn manages ~60 fg attempts. For Paige Azzi and Sarah to produce ~60ppg while shooting a little above 50% they’ll use roughly 50 attempts. This doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities for the rest of the team, maybe 15-20 if I’m being optimistic.

What I’m getting at is that it may be unrealistic to expect the big three to score a combined 60 pts every game. My guess is that Azzi will yield opportunities to Paige and Sarah most games and may end up averaging closer 10-12ppg.

 

[HopJim]

Not sure I understand the comments such as Shade is running behind last year's performance. Her defense is improved and she is a 3-point threat every time she gets the ball. Her 20point quarter several games ago is one of the top performances in the history of UConn. Given less playing time, her stats are not the same as last year but you expect that since she had played almost every minute of every game. Geno's lack of negative comments are perhaps the greatest compliment Ashlynn can receive.

 

[Dogdude]

Not sure I understand the comments such as Shade is running behind last year's performance. Her defense is improved and she is a 3-point threat every time she gets the ball. Her 20point quarter several games ago is one of the top performances in the history of UConn. Given less playing time, her stats are not the same as last year but you expect that since she had played almost every minute of every game. Geno's lack of negative comments are perhaps the greatest compliment Ashlynn can receive.

And her steals are up, and her boxing out and rebounding are very effective. Look at the +- after each game, and many times, she's the leader. She's totally fine, and with all the scorers on the team, there's not a lot of space for her to get 10 shots a game. If she's getting the minutes she's playing, she's obviously looking great in Geno's eyes.

 

[meyers7]

Xavier is rebuilding: A new H.C., 10 foreign students from
8 counties (England, Finland, Australia, Spain (3), Serbia,
Germany, Croatia, and Slovakia.) The Xavier roster includes 6 transfer
students. In about 2 -3 years (perhaps) they will be in a
more competitive position, e.g. like the improved Butler team.
A digression here: While I was thinking about Xavier I was
reminded about a quote by Sydney "Bean" Douglas once gave to
a sport's reporter. "BEAN" said: "You never lose. You
either win or you learn" (a quote from Nelson Mandela). So
also with Xavier?? Since the "BEAN" is coming to UCONN for
a visit, here is another " Bean" quote.
She once said: "Trusting
the journey and embracing the unexpected". To my way of
thinking, from that last quote, Sydney and Paige have a lot in common.
I hope "BUCKETS" and the "BEAN" hit it off during "Bean's" unofficial visit
in about 11 days (Seton Hall game). Another interesting set of data:
FYI Bean's date of birth is September 16, 2008, so by age, she is more like someone in the class of 2027 than her current class 2028. EG. Jordyn Palmer was
born November 6, 2008, less than two months later than Sydney and
Jordyn one of UCONN's "offers" for the class of 2027. Could the
"Bean" leave Ontario Christian with her teammate Kaleena Smith, who is in the
Class of 2027?? Sorry about that transgression...it is just how my
mind sometimes works (or doesn't work.... as my wife tells me!!)

Well let's hope Xavier learns a lot tonight.

 

[ERWUC65]

And her steals are up, and her boxing out and rebounding are very effective. Look at the +- after each game, and many times, she's the leader. She's totally fine, and with all the scorers on the team, there's not a lot of space for her to get 10 shots a game. If she's getting the minutes she's playing, she's obviously looking great in Geno's eyes.

The next couple of games without Paige will give her the minutes. As stated above and in previous posts, we all know her positives. Any doubts are in her offensive prowess, specifically in the (1) catch and shoot threes, (2) short post up jumper, and (3) drive to the basket and score on a layup.

 

[Bone Dog]

The next couple of games without Paige will give her the minutes. As stated above and in previous posts, we all know her positives. Any doubts are in her offensive prowess, specifically in the (1) catch and shoot threes, (2) short post up jumper, and (3) drive to the basket and score on a layup.

I remember Ash from high school — a number of her games are still findable on YouTube. She was the consummate team player and leader. She did whatever was needed, little or big, to get them a state title. And when needed she put the team on her shoulders and carried them across the finish line.

I think of Ash in the same way i think of Aubrey. As one tv commentator said, Aubrey is “the queen of the little things.” So is Ash. Neither one would routinely dazzle us. But if you watch carefully you see the substantial impact both of them have on games in all the little things they do.

 

[HuskyNan]

Xavier defense will key in on Sarah and Azzi - triangle and two? Who will step up?

 

[Zarathustra]

Xavier defense will key in on Sarah and Azzi - triangle and two? Who will step up?

Answer: The Huskie player who passes up a good shot for a " GREAT SHOT".
I think that this means just about the whole team!

 

[Huskee11]

It would be nice to see a good shooting game from the Huskies.

Thus far this season they have shot it better at Gampel and Mohegan Sun than at XL.

How about 60% or more from the field and at least 12 threes?