Game Analysis - Game 13 - Uconn vs Providence

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Providence is an offensively challenged team only averaging 58.8 points per game, however, they would appear on paper at least to be pretty tough defensively holding their opponents to only 58.1 points per game. While Providence does play a very experienced starting 5: 3 graduate students and 2 seniors I do not feel they will be successful in holding UConn under 60 points. I don't expect UConn to come off the Christmas holiday firing on all cylinders either. If the past is prologue then the first half will be low scoring and they will pick it up in the second half. It won't have as much to do with Providence's defense as it will with UConn shaking off the holiday rust and returning to its rhythm. UConn will be trying to reintegrate Azzi Fudd into its line-up, which will also present some challenges. Providence dresses 14 players but realistically only goes 8 deep. UConn can go 11 deep and still bring quality off the bench. UConn averages 80 points per game and limits its opponents to 55 points per game. This does not bode well for Providence who will have some holiday doldrums to work off themselves.

RPI / SOS:

Providence's RPI - 115
Opponents RPI: 307, 298, 226, 206,190, 133, 127, 82, 81, 78, 76, 48, 35

UConn's RPI - 6
Opponents RPI: 222,175, 154, 138, 111, 97, 90, 55, 37, 22, 17, 14

Providence's Strength of Schedule - 83
Opponent's Strength of Schedule: 353, 171, 162, 145, 143, 134, 122, 112, 100, 88, 87, 82, 76

UConn's Strength of Schedule - 8
Opponent's Strength of Schedule: 311, 309, 252, 167, 153, 33, 30, 38, 21, 20, 19, 10

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady - 6'3" R-So., Forward vs Olivia Olsen - 6'3" Senior, Forward - Olivia does a little of everything, averaging 7.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1.6 blocks per game. Ice is emerging as somewhat of an enigma. If you look at her high school stats or watch footage of her in high school...you would think she would be somewhat more productive. Sure you could say that she is playing on a whole different level now but technically so is every other big from every other team. Maybe, she just needs more games and playing time under her belt before she blossoms into the player we thought we were getting. I remember Tina Charles her first two years...before she became the force that she was. Anyway currently, Ice is averaging 5.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. Both Ice and Olivia are capable of stepping out and knocking down a three.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

Sarah Strong - 6'2" Freshmen, Forward vs Emily Archibald - 6'0" Senior, Forward - Emily averages 4.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Emily is not much of a three-point threat averaging only .38 per game. Sarah is turning heads around women's college basketball. She is in the conversation for being selected as an All-American. She is a stat-stuffer averaging 17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Sarah can also hit the three averaging 2.0 per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" R-Senior, Guard vs Grace Efosa - 5'11" Graduate, Guard - Grace is Providence's most productive player. She averages 16 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game...she is not much of a threat from deep only averaging .64 threes per game. Paige is UConn's only All-American averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and knocks down 2 threes per game. I think now that we are entering conference play we will begin to see the more assertive/aggressive Paige that she vowed to be at the beginning of the season.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" Sophomore, Guard vs Brynn Farrell - 6'0" Graduate, Guard - Brynn averages 8.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 steal per game. She almost averages 1 three-pointer per game as well. Ashlynn lately is beginning to show that all her hard work is paying off. Ashlynn averages 8.8 points per game 2.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.7 steals per game while knocking down 1.67 threes per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs MacKayla Scarlett - 5'10" Graduate, Guard - Mackayla averages 4.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, and knocks down 1 three-pointer per game. Kaitlyn has begun to feel more comfortable in the UConn sets. She is averaging 6.7 points, 1.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. She is also averaging .75 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn's bench is averaging 27 points, and 14.2 rebounds while Providence's bench is averaging 20.2 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played at the Hartford Civic Center in front of UConn's home crowd. Azzi will be looking to get back into playing shape and UConn goes much deeper with quality players than Providence.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Chris along with their incredible coaching staff will have this one under control.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn -88
Providence - 45
MOV - 43

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, Sensei!!! What leaps off the page about Providence is the veterans. The entire starting lineup is seniors or grad students.

I have a feeling Ice will rise to the challenge of defending Olivia, who is an experienced, tough minded player. And when Jana spells her, I think the strength difference will be telling. This one looks like Advantage UConn to me.

The more important question will be Brynn Farrell, Grace Efosa and Emily Archibald. These are all veterans with a lot of experience playing together. They may not pack a scoring punch, but they defend pretty well and play a version of aggressive [physical?] basketball. Can Paige and Sarah take the game away from them? I think so.

And what of Azzi? Are we expecting her to play, and to be back to full strength? If she does, I don’t see how Providence can even stay close.

 

[Centerstream]

Dumb question: is the Civic Center just an older version of the XL Center?

 

[Centerstream]

Another great analysis of an upcoming game. I am not jumping on anyone's "play XXX more" bandwagon but I am curious to see in the coming month exactly how KK, Azzi (or Ashlynn?), Jana and Morgan are blended into the games. Each of these four players have played, except Azzi obviously, meaningful minutes over the last few games. And then there's the unknown...is Aubrey going to be available in this game or in the next couple of games. I would really, really like her first game back to be at a home game tho. She deserves the ovation.

 

[cferraro04]

Dumb question: is the Civic Center just an older version of the XL Center?

Ooops...guess I am dating myself...yes, since the cave-in and repair it is called the XL Center.

 

[Puppy Love]

Dumb question: is the Civic Center just an older version of the XL Center?

Wasn’t laughing at you…but to most long term nutmeggers, it will always be the Civic Center.

 

[Centerstream]

Wasn’t laughing at you…but to most long term nutmeggers, it will always be the Civic Center.

No problem, I have driven through Hartford many times over the last 25+ years and don’t remember when the change in the name appeared on traffic signs.

 

[Stagnant]

Do you guys think Ice is starting? Or will it be Jana versus Olivia Olsen?

 

[Blond D.]

Do you guys think Ice is starting? Or will it be Jana versus Olivia Olsen?

I think Ice will start (not sure why) and then Jana will come in but in the end and for the most part, Morgan will take that spot.

 

[Bald Husky]

Wasn’t laughing at you…but to most long term nutmeggers, it will always be the Civic Center.

Home of the Hartford Whalers, yeah

 

[Tonyc]

Originally it was as Kibitzer used to remind us Veterans Memorial

 

[HopJim]

I think Ice will start (not sure why) and then Jana will come in but in the end and for the most part, Morgan will take that spot.

Morgan boxes out well and always moves to the ball on both offense and defense. Jana is more of a stationary player that takes up space but still seems a bit stiff from last year's injury. I originally thought UConn needed a true big to do well but with Strong turning into a great rebounder and Morgan performing at all levels, wondering is Morgan will continue to get more minutes with starters.

 

[Bone Dog]

Morgan boxes out well and always moves to the ball on both offense and defense. Jana is more of a stationary player that takes up space but still seems a bit stiff from last year's injury. I originally thought UConn needed a true big to do well but with Strong turning into a great rebounder and Morgan performing at all levels, wondering is Morgan will continue to get more minutes with starters.

Will Morgan get more prime rotation minutes? This is an excellent question. If she does, it means Geno is taking seriously the sort of small lineup he used out of necessity last season. Sifting the minutes to find out how Geno thinks is an imprecise art. But it is tempting. I thought we lost in the FF last season because Paige was worn out by a taxing season, not because we lacked a true big. If that’s right, the true benefit of the deeper lineup may not be more size, but having another big guard.

A lot of folks wondered if Morgan could play in one of the guard spots at UConn. It’s clear Geno sees a role for her at the 4 and at the 3. It may be only a matter of time before we see her at the 2 or even the 1. Of course, these position designators are a loose fit for Geno’s often much of the time. I mean, if KK or Kaitlyn is on the floor, you kinda have to call them the 1 — yeah, Kaitlyn shoots well enough to count as a 2. But what about a unit consisting of Paige Azzi Morgan Sarah and Ice? Clearly Paige and Azzi are 2s or 1s, and it would be easy enough to call Morgan a wing, unless she obviously starts to run the transition game. And we’ve already seen her do this a few times this season. And I have no idea how long Geno would keep both KK and Kaitlyn off the floor before garbage time.

Now substitute Allie or Q for Ice. In a lineup like Paige Kaitlyn Allie Morgan and Sarah, Morgan might look like a traditional 4 next to Sarah, while Allie or Q are pretty obvious traditional 3s. But Geno would likely run something much less positional with a lineup like that, something more like the Gabby-led teams. I still remember how odd it seemed that the starting 6’3” player on those teams occupied the wing as a shooter, and the two post players were 5’11” and 6’1”. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sarah on the wing and Morgan and Allie boxing out the opposing post players.

 

[JellyBean]

Solid game analysis as always @cferraro04. Games like this, where you have the edge on paper in talent, you would hope that the team would show up and show out. We will see how a few days of practice & rest help or hurt the team. I do hope the game plan is to let the post players eat a little out there. Ice gets 2-5 touches a game. Same with Jana. But folks always wanting more from them. SMH. The guards don't look for them on the screen & roll action. Ice has a decent pick and pop/fade game, but she only gets 1-2 looks on that shot. Jana, I forgot which game, was in the dunker spot, open a lot. She got that one look, and they never went back to her on that play again. But folks want more productivity from the post. SMH. We will see what develops.

 

[Skeets]

Wasn’t laughing at you…but to most long term nutmeggers, it will always be the Civic Center.

I think at one point it was called the Memorial Coliseum at the Hartford Civic Center. I think it still might say "Memorial Coliseum" over the door ways. I'll have to check it out tomorrow.

 

[JoePgh]

It's a more radical move than Geno usually makes, but if he is in "send a message" mode, he just might start the lineup that won the second half against Southern Cal by 11 points: Sarah, Morgan, Paige, Ashlynn, and Kaitlyn, with Azzi and KK as the first subs off the bench. If Aubrey is available, she will be next after that. Only then would we see Ice or Jana -- if that is the message that Geno is intending to send.

I'd say that there is about a 30% chance that he does this.

 

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Providence is an offensively challenged team only averaging 58.8 points per game, however, they would appear on paper at least to be pretty tough defensively holding their opponents to only 58.1 points per game. While Providence does play a very experienced starting 5: 3 graduate students and 2 seniors I do not feel they will be successful in holding UConn under 60 points. I don't expect UConn to come off the Christmas holiday firing on all cylinders either. If the past is prologue then the first half will be low scoring and they will pick it up in the second half. It won't have as much to do with Providence's defense as it will with UConn shaking off the holiday rust and returning to its rhythm. UConn will be trying to reintegrate Azzi Fudd into its line-up, which will also present some challenges. Providence dresses 14 players but realistically only goes 8 deep. UConn can go 11 deep and still bring quality off the bench. UConn averages 80 points per game and limits its opponents to 55 points per game. This does not bode well for Providence who will have some holiday doldrums to work off themselves.

RPI / SOS:

Providence's RPI - 115
Opponents RPI: 307, 298, 226, 206,190, 133, 127, 82, 81, 78, 76, 48, 35

UConn's RPI - 6
Opponents RPI: 222,175, 154, 138, 111, 97, 90, 55, 37, 22, 17, 14

Providence's Strength of Schedule - 83
Opponent's Strength of Schedule: 353, 171, 162, 145, 143, 134, 122, 112, 100, 88, 87, 82, 76

UConn's Strength of Schedule - 8
Opponent's Strength of Schedule: 311, 309, 252, 167, 153, 33, 30, 38, 21, 20, 19, 10

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady - 6'3" R-So., Forward vs Olivia Olsen - 6'3" Senior, Forward - Olivia does a little of everything, averaging 7.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1.6 blocks per game. Ice is emerging as somewhat of an enigma. If you look at her high school stats or watch footage of her in high school...you would think she would be somewhat more productive. Sure you could say that she is playing on a whole different level now but technically so is every other big from every other team. Maybe, she just needs more games and playing time under her belt before she blossoms into the player we thought we were getting. I remember Tina Charles her first two years...before she became the force that she was. Anyway currently, Ice is averaging 5.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. Both Ice and Olivia are capable of stepping out and knocking down a three.
ADVANTAGE - PROVIDENCE

Sarah Strong - 6'2" Freshmen, Forward vs Emily Archibald - 6'0" Senior, Forward - Emily averages 4.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Emily is not much of a three-point threat averaging only .38 per game. Sarah is turning heads around women's college basketball. She is in the conversation for being selected as an All-American. She is a stat-stuffer averaging 17.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Sarah can also hit the three averaging 2.0 per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" R-Senior, Guard vs Grace Efosa - 5'11" Graduate, Guard - Grace is Providence's most productive player. She averages 16 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal per game...she is not much of a threat from deep only averaging .64 threes per game. Paige is UConn's only All-American averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and knocks down 2 threes per game. I think now that we are entering conference play we will begin to see the more assertive/aggressive Paige that she vowed to be at the beginning of the season.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" Sophomore, Guard vs Brynn Farrell - 6'0" Graduate, Guard - Brynn averages 8.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 steal per game. She almost averages 1 three-pointer per game as well. Ashlynn lately is beginning to show that all her hard work is paying off. Ashlynn averages 8.8 points per game 2.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.7 steals per game while knocking down 1.67 threes per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9" Graduate - Guard vs MacKayla Scarlett - 5'10" Graduate, Guard - Mackayla averages 4.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, and knocks down 1 three-pointer per game. Kaitlyn has begun to feel more comfortable in the UConn sets. She is averaging 6.7 points, 1.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. She is also averaging .75 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn's bench is averaging 27 points, and 14.2 rebounds while Providence's bench is averaging 20.2 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played at the Hartford Civic Center in front of UConn's home crowd. Azzi will be looking to get back into playing shape and UConn goes much deeper with quality players than Providence.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Chris along with their incredible coaching staff will have this one under control.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn -88
Providence - 45
MOV - 43

AMENDMENT: Ashlynn as per Geno will go to the bench and Azzi will start. It doesn't change the ADVANTAGE at all. UConn will still win this match-up...Azzi Fudd averages 8.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 Assists, and .7 steals. She is shooting the three at 1.17 per game but we all know that will improve. There are not many changes with Ash coming off the bench. She has the potential to be an impact player coming off the bench...when you put that together with Morgan and KK and eventually Aubrey our bench should give us a lift going. forward

 

[Next 12]

The BE games are practice games as far as Uconn is concerned. Uconn will use these games to put together the players that work well with each other and therefore becoming the cohesive unit that Geno wants. I have said many times that Uconn will be undefeated in the BE. Quality play at every position. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[JellyBean]

The BE games are practice games as far as Uconn is concerned. Uconn will use these games to put together the players that work well with each other and therefore becoming the cohesive unit that Geno wants. I have said many times that Uconn will be undefeated in the BE. Quality play at every position. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

I just hope that Coach G goes deep with the bench during some of these Big East games. We got a wealth of talent. All the bench players need is that on court game experience and whatever they do in practice.