Game Analysis - Game 13 - UConn vs Butler

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

I hope everyone had a blessed Christmas with family and friends. Next up...Butler.

Butler plays an eight-player rotation with two forwards and three guards in the starting five. Their three most effective players off the bench are Navaeh Jackson, 6'0" Junior Guard, Addison Baxter, 5'9" - Freshman Guard, and Anna Wypych, 6'0" Freshman Guard. Butler is 7-6 overall and 1-2 in Conference play. Butler averages 68.2 points per game while holding their opponents to 65.4 points per game. They turn the ball over 16.5 times per game. Since they have not faced a defense like UConn's, it can be expected that the number of turnovers will go upwards into the 20s. They are not a great 3-point shooting team, averaging 6.9 three-pointers per game. Likewise, they are also not a great rebounding team either. They average 34.5 rebounds per game. Butler's RPI is 184, their SoS is 157. For comparison sake, UConn's RPI is 1, and they SoS is 3. Butler is capable of putting the ball in the basket, as evidenced by their 92-point performance against Dayton and their 101-point performance against Indiana State.

I am expecting UConn to flirt with 100 points in this game, and this is despite the holiday rust, which is sure to rear its head on Sunday. I think Butler will have a hard time getting through the forties for the game. I would not be surprised to see a 60 to 70 point win in this one.

PLAYER MATCH-UPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Mallory Miller, 6'4" - Redshirt Sophomore - Forward - Mallory is Butler's only big that is logging significant minutes (22.6 minutes). Lily Stoddard Butler's other 6'4 player only plays 12 minutes per game. Mallory is averaging a respectable 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Mallory can step out and hit the three as she has 10 three-pointers on the season. Serah is averaging 7.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .8 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Serah does not shoot the three much at all. Looking at these numbers, statistically, it looks like we are seeing two identical players. The difference here is that Serah is a much better defender than Mallory; she was the Big 10 defensive player of the year twice. UConn will force tempo, and that will result in increased turnovers. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Caroline Dotsey, 6'2" - Junior Forward - Caroline averages 9.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Caroline also averages 1 three-pointer per game. She will not be able to contain Sarah Strong. I am looking for Sarah to do her damage in about 20 minutes, and she will go to the bench while Geno plays the bench players. In her time on the court, Sarah will more than likely score a double-double. Sarah is currently averaging 18.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 3.5 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game in 27 minutes of play. Sarah also hits 1.4 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Lily Zienstra, 5'11" - Sophomore Guard - Lily is Butler's best offensive player. She is averaging 10.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, .8 steals, and she shoots the three-ball at 1.46 per game. Lily will be over her head trying to defend Azzi. Azzi is likewise UConn's best offensive weapon. Azzi averages 18.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 steals, .5 blocks, and hits on over fifty percent of her three-point attempts at 3.42 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Saniya Jackson, 6'0" - Redshirt Sophomore Guard - Saniya and her sister Nevaeh are a pair of 6'0" guards. Both are good players, with Saniya being just a little bit better. Saniya is averaging 9.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and hits on .85 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn is currently averaging 7.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and hits 1.33 three-pointers per game. While I am tempted to give the advantage to Butler here, I have to acknowledge Shade's individual defense and the team defense that she will face against UConn.
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Kennedy Langham, 5'7" - Junior Guard - Kennedy averages 6.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and .9 steals per game. I think we get a breakout game from KK in this one. KK is averaging 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.2 steals, and averages 1 three-point shot every other game. I think KK holds Kennedy below her averages and proves to be too much for Kennedy. KK's impact on the game will far exceed Kennedy's. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BEST 3 BENCH PLAYERS:

*I did something a little bit differently here. I broke up the bench play into two parts: Part 1 - the best three bench players who play significant minutes; Part 2 - the rest of the bench.

Butler: Nevrah Jackson, 6'0" - Junior Guard; Addison Baxter, 5'9" - Freshman Guard; Anna Wypych, 6'0" - Freshman Guard.
UConn: Blanca Quiones, 6'2" - Freshman Forward; Kayleigh Heckel, 5'9" - Sophomore Guard; Allie Ziebell, 6'0' - Sophomore Guard.

Collectively, Butler's best three off the bench are responsible for: 19 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.4 steals, and 2.1 three-pointers
UConn's best three off the bench are collectively responsible for 22.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 3.7 steals, and 2.7 three-pointers.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

REST OF THE BENCH:

Butler: 6.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, .7 steals, 1.5 blocks.
UConn: 10.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.1 steals, .5 blocks.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

No question, the UConn Hall of Fame coaching staff will get the job done and will not find this game a very difficult one to win.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

The only intangible in Butler's favor is the fact that this game will be played at the Indianapolis Field House. This will not be enough to offset UConn's talent, experience, size, and athleticism. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 97
BUTLER - 41
MOV - 56

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis sensei! It’s led me down some intriguing paths of thought. Thanks again. I like the new version of the bench section where you break out the top 3 bench players.

I’m also struck by your remark in the Williams-Miller matchup that the stats alone suggest a false similarity. You offer to qualify this by suggesting that Serah is the better defender, even though the stats don’t really distinguish them by a large margin. I think this is why you point out that Serah won a defense award. It isn’t obvious what else to look to for an explanation of the difference we expect is hidden by the stats. And yet the award is not an entirely satisfying explanation.

If we insist on another stat to explain this, we could turn to SoS and use it to develop a factor to adjust the other stats, namely 157/3. At this point in the season, SoS is a more informative number than it was in early November. But this still isn’t totally satisfactory since SoS is mainly ordinal, not cardinal. Maybe Massey has a raw-data expression of this. As you suggest in the Arnold-Langham matchup, we also ought to expect KK’s defense to hold Langham below her averages. This sounds right to me, even though it’s merely an ‘eyeball’ adjustment.

One other observation you make is suggestive of some sort of solution, though off the top of my head I don’t know how to devise a factor to express it. You observe that Butler has a 7-6 record and a slender 3 pt average MoV. These two numbers seem to correspond to each other very well. For this game you suggest an MoV favoring UConn of 56 points or more. This seems reasonable and also indicative of the fact that this game represents a step up in competition than what the rest of their season so far has exposed them to. But how can we quantify this sense of things? Some sort of SoS factor combined with an average MoV factor is tempting though I don’t know how exactly to develop one.

In this game, I expect to see more bench minutes, not only for the top 3 but also for Jana and Kelis as well as Ayanna and maybe Carol too, if she’s healthy. It will be thrilling as always to see Blanca flex her skills in this game. But I’d enjoy seeing the others stretch their basketball legs too. And this is a factor that could be factored in, if we were so inclined: the deviation from average bench minutes. Even without this, it will be fun to see them on the floor more.

Thank you again, sensei!

 

[DEpup]

I applaud the acknowledgement of Ash's complete game and how she plays her role at an elite level on the best team in the country in the analysis. I counted to 10 and took a deep breath at the use of the word "slight" and am focusing on the positive movement. Let's be real, this is a situation of girls playing full grown women. I "slightly" feel bad for Butler.

 

[Zarathustra]

Thanks for the INSIGHTS! I appreciate the distinction of
"Best 3 Bench Players". I sometimes think of the three
"First off the bench" players as the "COMBO" players at
Post, PG, and Shooting Guard. Though my reasoning
may be faulty (ask my wife about that!), I have Blanca
as my "6th" player (off the bench). Do I hear any
semantic issues coming?... OF COURSE, this is the BONEYARD!
Happy Boxing Day! Z

 

[Bone Dog]

Do I hear any
semantic issues coming?

Hold my beer

 

[MSGRET]

Great analysis on everything with one minor error. They are playing at the Hinkle Fieldhouse that's located in Indianapolis, IN. Hinkle Fieldhouse was built in 1928, it's on the Butler campus that's in Indianapolis. It's a historic landmark and is considered "Indiana's Basketball Cathedral". They play all four divisions of both the boys and girls high school semi and state championship games there. It originally cost over $750,000.00 to build which would be over $14,000,000.00 in today's money. It was also used for the movie Hoosiers back in 1986 which at the time was almost in the building original state. The first ever renovations was done in 1989 and the fieldhouse had major renovations done from 2011-2014. It was Butler Fieldhouse from 1928 - 1966, then the changed it to Hinkle Fieldhouse in honor of the Paul D. "Tony" Hinkle who coached 3 sports and the Atheletic Director for 50 years at Butler.

 

[Next 12]

Thank you cferrarro04 for the time and effort in your post. Very informative.I am not very analytical and pay little attention to size or ability of opposing players because whatever their achievements are, they will not achieve against Uconn's defensive shut down. This game will just be another step to winning the 13th N.C. in Uconn's history. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!

 

[cferraro04]

Great analysis on everything with one minor error. They are playing at the Hinkle Fieldhouse that's located in Indianapolis, IN. Hinkle Fieldhouse was built in 1928, it's on the Butler campus that's in Indianapolis. It's a historic landmark and is considered "Indiana's Basketball Cathedral". They play all four divisions of both the boys and girls high school semi and state championship games there. It originally cost over $750,000.00 to build which would be over $14,000,000.00 in today's money. It was also used for the movie Hoosiers back in 1986 which at the time was almost in the building original state. The first ever renovations was done in 1989 and the fieldhouse had major renovations done from 2011-2014. It was Butler Fieldhouse from 1928 - 1966, then the changed it to Hinkle Fieldhouse in honor of the Paul D. "Tony" Hinkle who coached 3 sports and the Atheletic Director for 50 years at Butler.

Thanks for the correction and the additional information on Hinkle Fieldhouse.