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Great analysis. Really appreciate your doing this every game, especially in front of a tough audience! Go Huskies.
Bleed Blue.
Bleed Blue.
Game Analysis - Game 12 - UConn vs Iowa
- Thread starter cferraro04
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cferraro04
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I don't disagree with you that more minutes means elevated stats. But, I do have a question for you to ponder: What do you see changing in this game with regard to allocated minutes? I think it might be more likely, assuming Heiden doesn't get into foul trouble, that she may see more minutes. Also, what does the loss of Emaly Rodriguez do to Iowa's distribution of minutes?
cferraro04
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Since this analysis took some incoming fire...I thought it would be interesting to compare the pregame analysis with the postgame results. The comparison was indeed interesting.
Pregame - Williams vs Heiden - ADV. Iowa (folks took issue with Williams being 2x all conference and minutes played vs Heiden's mins)
Post game: Williams - 23 minutes, 7 pts., 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers
Heiden - 19 minutes, 8 pts., 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Conclusion - given the shortened minutes for Heiden due to foul trouble and that she outperformed Williams in 4 out of 5 different categories...I would say the pregame analysis was correct.
Pregame - Strong vs Stuelke - ADV UConn (no disagreements there)
Post game: Strong - 34 minutes, 23 points, 7 RBs, 4 assists, 6 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Stuelke - 30 minutes, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was correct
Pregame - Fudd vs McCabe - ADV UCONN (no one disagreed with this prediction)
Post game: Fudd - 36 minutes - 27 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 5-13 from 3
McCabe - 28 minutes - 3 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 TOs
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was patently correct
Pregame - Shade vs Feuerbach (you would have to add in Stremlow after Feuerbach's injury)...ADV UCONN
Post game: Shade - 24 minutes 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Feuerbach - 9 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Stremlow - 27 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 6 TOs
Conclusion - Given that Feuerbach and Stremlow played collectively 3 6 minutes to Shades 24 minutes. I would have to say that the pregame analysis was, for the most part, correct.
Pregame - KK vs Wright: Some thought that my pregame prediction of ADV - EVEN was incorrect because of KK's relentless defense. Well, I think we saw some evidence of Wright being a tough assignment for KK...especially when "Chit-chat broke KK's ankles on the cross-over change of direction dribble.
Post game: KK - 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, 2-2 (three-pointers).
Wright - 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 turnovers, 4-8 (three-pointers)
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was incorrect, calling this a push...This was more accurately ADV - IOWA
BENCH:
Pregame - the prediction was ADV - EVEN
Post game - UConn - 21 points, 8 rebounds
Iowa - 20 points, 13 rebounds
Conclusion - The pregame analysis for the most part was correct.
Pregame - Williams vs Heiden - ADV. Iowa (folks took issue with Williams being 2x all conference and minutes played vs Heiden's mins)
Post game: Williams - 23 minutes, 7 pts., 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers
Heiden - 19 minutes, 8 pts., 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Conclusion - given the shortened minutes for Heiden due to foul trouble and that she outperformed Williams in 4 out of 5 different categories...I would say the pregame analysis was correct.
Pregame - Strong vs Stuelke - ADV UConn (no disagreements there)
Post game: Strong - 34 minutes, 23 points, 7 RBs, 4 assists, 6 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Stuelke - 30 minutes, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was correct
Pregame - Fudd vs McCabe - ADV UCONN (no one disagreed with this prediction)
Post game: Fudd - 36 minutes - 27 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 5-13 from 3
McCabe - 28 minutes - 3 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 TOs
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was patently correct
Pregame - Shade vs Feuerbach (you would have to add in Stremlow after Feuerbach's injury)...ADV UCONN
Post game: Shade - 24 minutes 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Feuerbach - 9 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Stremlow - 27 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 6 TOs
Conclusion - Given that Feuerbach and Stremlow played collectively 3 6 minutes to Shades 24 minutes. I would have to say that the pregame analysis was, for the most part, correct.
Pregame - KK vs Wright: Some thought that my pregame prediction of ADV - EVEN was incorrect because of KK's relentless defense. Well, I think we saw some evidence of Wright being a tough assignment for KK...especially when "Chit-chat broke KK's ankles on the cross-over change of direction dribble.
Post game: KK - 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, 2-2 (three-pointers).
Wright - 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 turnovers, 4-8 (three-pointers)
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was incorrect, calling this a push...This was more accurately ADV - IOWA
BENCH:
Pregame - the prediction was ADV - EVEN
Post game - UConn - 21 points, 8 rebounds
Iowa - 20 points, 13 rebounds
Conclusion - The pregame analysis for the most part was correct.
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Good on you, sensei! You deserve kudos again.
I would only quibble about one thing. Chit Chat didn’t “break KK’s ankles,” though the announcer described it that way. But the replay showed clearly that KK’s shoe merely slid on a slippery part of the midcourt logo, the very same spot Kylie Feuerbach had slipped on earlier. In fact, KK was lucky not suffer a similar injury.
That said, Chit Chat had a good game, though some of her points came in garbage time and none of KK’s did. More importantly however, she was as valuable to Iowa as KK was to UConn today. She was able to play the game Iowa needs from her and we weren’t able to prevent it. I’d say the same about Hannah Stuelke. Sarah outplayed her in absolute terms. But Hannah did what she usually does for her team. Iowa was dominated in the second half, but it wasn’t the fault of these two.
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I would say Williams vs Heiden was even
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You should call this a stat sheet comparison. KK ran the offense and defense for the best team in the country. Blanca also disrupted the entire game. There is no credit for these things on the stat sheet. KK pleases Geno, that's all you can ask.
.-.
I really like your analysis but I am not buying your justifications. They are heavily based on points only...
1. Hayden-- If you are a leading scorer for your team and you are on the bench with fouls, I think Serah/Sarah were doing their job and took the advantage away from her.
2. So if Fuerbach gets a helper regardless of her situation then you need to add Blanca's stats on to Shade
3. Really? KK? So you are saying you'd take Wright over KK? KK's defense and pace along with no turnovers affected the game in a way Wright's points did not obviously. And those 3's that KK put down were significant when they happened.
I've been defending your analysis in posts and still enjoy it but this is over the top. UConn wins by 26 and it was more before the end and you are going to say 3/5 positions go to Iowa? That doesn't pass the smell test. I just have to call this out.
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I’m sorry you feel the need to justify your opinions. Maybe you should simply leave off the advantage part since the players don’t just play against that other player. The rest is informative.
MSGRET
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@cferraro04 keep on doing what you wish to do. If some people don't agree with what you're doing tough, others like your input. I always enjoy info on the opposition, it makes it easier to watch the opposing team without having to dig it up myself. Thanks for you input and keep up the good work.
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I love the advantage part most of all. Those pregame guesses are where all the interesting discussions come from. That’s what all of us are always trying to anticipate and sensei gives us all really good starting points for speculation even if we disagree.
cferraro04
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"3/5 positions go to Iowa?" That is not the way I read the post-game analysis above. I see that three of the six are going to UConn, two are even, and one is going to Iowa—just a small point (no pun intended). Defense leads to offense (in other words, points). Points still are the best quantitative indication as to who wins the game. If your team scores more points than the other team, then you win. If you score more points in your match-up with your opponent, then you win the match-up, and the net result is that more members of your team score more points than their opponents, then you generally win. The only time this isn't true is if the opponent, whose individual player match-up scores more points than the opponent's collective matchups, then a team can win the game with only one player winning their matchup. Finally, the reason I did not add in Blanca's points is that Blanca was not Shade's replacement...she replaced Williams. Keep in mind that Williams had more minutes than her matchup opponent, Heiden, had, and she did not outperform Heiden despite playing more minutes. Also, Heiden's fouls were a conglomerate of defending Williams and trying to provide weakside help when UConn penetrated the paint. Not all of Heiden's fouls were caused by Williams. Hey, bottom line...I don't think I am going to get my crystal ball predictions correct all the time, even if based on historical statistics; however, I did get this one pretty close to being right. Finally, I really don't think there is a better way to compare teams prior to a game
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You are 100% right on KK slipping on the logo.. ChitChat is a great player, but she can not break KK's ankles. I thought it was the logo when it happened.
These oversized center ice logos are printed on a rubbery/stretchy vinyl paper and slapped down for the camera. I've seen countless men and women slip on them. Bad for the game. I have a few small similar logos on my SUV and Motorhome and I'm here to tell you, they are slick.
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I love and appreciate your post before each game. Now for my objection. I look at determining who has the advantage this way: would that player start on auconn. If the answer is no, how can you give them an advantage? No way chit chat should be viewed as having an advantage over KK or Ash, or I say Bianca or Kayleigh either. Only after determining if they would start on UConn, would I look at the matchup to see who has the advantage. And defense is as important as offense! Just my opinion. I look forward to your next posting.
In hindsight of course, but after watching Baylor and Iowa State today, although not stiffs , not great either. I wish Iowa State was on UConn’s schedule, just to see how Audi Crooks would handle the speed and defensive pressure. I think not well. Once allowed to receive the ball in the post, if not double teamed, she seems unstoppable against lesser teams.
You should not feel you need to justify your opinion, just because many, like me, don’t agree with some of you analysis. Keep ‘em coming, please. I will say though that I agree less with your post game analysis than your pre game one. Why don’t use Bianca or avian w and Serah as one entry, since she plays as much as Serah? Same with Ash or Kk with Kayleigh, although Kayleigh did play less last game? To me, none of the guards have to provide much offense in order to have the advantage in every game I’ve seen played. Especially when the player (in this case chit chat) played more minutes and much of the offensive stats were when the game was ostensibly over?