Game Analysis - Game 12 - UConn vs Iowa | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 12 - UConn vs Iowa

cferraro04

cferraro04

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GENERAL COMMENTS:

Here we have a much-anticipated game against a team that features two really good bigs in the middle who can finish, a team that shoots threes at a pace of about 8-9 per game, and a team that gets out on offense and plays decent transition basketball. However, in the full scheme of things, they will have their hands full with the speed at which UConn plays the game. They are not as fast as UConn and will likely struggle to keep up with them. They will also have to face one of the toughest defenses in the country. That being said, given Iowa's attributes, I think this will be a good test for our defense, and it should tell us just how good it is.

Because of the discrepancies in the match-ups, I took the liberty of being a little creative in pairing up players in what I believe would be the most effective game plan.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Ava Heiden, 6'4" - Sophomore Center: Ava will be a challenge for Serah, but given Serah's past in the Big 10, she could very well rise to the occasion. Statistically, Ava has an advantage over Serah. Ava averages 15.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Her stats show her to be a multi-dimensional center who will present a challenge for Serah on many levels. Serah averages 7.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .8 steals, and 1.0 blocks. ADVANTAGE - IOWA

Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Senior Forward - Hannah averages 13.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals per game. Sarah is UConn's girl Friday...You need it; she brings it! Sarah is averaging 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 3.3 steals, 2.0 blocks, and she hits 1.27 three points per game. I think Sarah will be too much for Hannah, and I think Hannah will play below her averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Assi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Taylor McCabe, 5'9" - Senior Guard - This should be reminiscent of the "shoot-out at the A-OK Corral". A couple of 3-point snipers matched up against each other...should be interesting. Taylor averages 9.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, .4 steals, and hits 3.0 three-pointers per game. All Azzi needs to do is defend the three-point shot because Taylor shoots almost exclusively three-pointers. Azzi, on the other hand, has proven to be much more versatile than simply a three-point shooter. She can pull up for two, she can drive the lane, and she is a pretty efficient three-point assassin, shooting threes at .529 percent. Azzi averages 17.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.2 steals, and hits on 3.27 threes per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Kylie Feuerback, 6'0" - Graduate Guard - Kylie averages 5.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and hits .9 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn is averaging 7.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and hits 1.36 three-pointers per game. Besides Ashlynn being statistically better than her opponent, I believe her defense is going to cause Kylie to play below her season averages. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Chazadi Wright, 5'4" - Sophomore Guard - Besides having probably the "coolest" name I have come across so far this year, Chazadi is a speed demon on the court. This will be a speed vs speed match-up. KK's 5-inch height advantage may prove to be impactful in this matchup. Chazadi averages 11.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 steals. Chazadi also hits about 2 three-pointers per game. KK averages 6.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.4 steals. Statistically, Chazadi has the advantage over KK; however, KK's defense will probably take Chazadi off her averages. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

INTANGIBLES:

This is a home game for Iowa; UConn may start the game flat and have to hit their rhythm in the second quarter. UConn hasn't faced two quality bigs as of yet, so this may be a test for their interior players. UConn is faster and more talented overall. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

While Iowa has an excellent coach, I will take Geno and his staff over just about anybody. I think Geno will have scouted Iowa, he will have a strong game plan, and they will get the job done. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

Iowa will bring 37.3 points and 20.1 rebounds off the bench, while UConn will bring 35.5 points and 16.3 rebounds off the bench. Overall, statistically, there is not enough difference between the two benches. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE:

UCONN - 84
IOWA - 69
MOV - 15
 
Great job, sensei.

Although you provide a matchup analysis offensively I think you need to add a defensive factor into your write-up. As an example, whoever Azzi is guarding will not be as effective as she was against the opponents she has faced season to date so her stats are not as compelling. Maybe think about Team Defense as an area to compare like you do with Intangibles, Coaching and Bench. If you think back to last season stifling team defense was probably the biggest reason we won the national championship.
 
Three questions: 1) How does Wright have a statistical advantage over Arnold? Arnold leads in 3 of 4 categories and is the superior defensive player. 2) How is this a home game for Iowa in NYC? 3) Bench: These numbers mean nothing. Do you think Iowa’s bench is going to produce 37 pts and 20 rebounds against UConn? They’ve produced these numbers against a schedule of stiffs other than Baylor and Iowa St. and they only scored 57 total against Baylor as a team.
 
Thanks again., Sensei. Well done!

One thing that strikes me about this post is that the general category of “Bench” doesn’t allow you enough nuance to capture what Blanca brings to every game. She’s one of those players whose contributions aren’t really captured by simple stats. It’s not just points rebounds steals or blocks with Blanca. There’s also the general mayhem and chaos that her size and speed introduces into a game when she enters.

Maybe we need a category called “Blanca.” We have one Blanca and most opponents have none.
 
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Centerstream said:
I hate autocorrect: Assi vs Azzi.
By "coolest" name, are you referring to Chazadi, or as I have seen her referred to, Chit Chat?
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I think her name Chazadi, has a certain amount of "pizazz" to it. But, the "Chit Chat" nickname is hilarious...And, I think we have our own "Chit Chat" in KK. lol :)
 
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BobbyJ said:
Three questions: 1) How does Wright have a statistical advantage over Arnold? Arnold leads in 3 of 4 categories and is the superior defensive player. 2) How is this a home game for Iowa in NYC? 3) Bench: These numbers mean nothing. Do you think Iowa’s bench is going to produce 37 pts and 20 rebounds against UConn? They’ve produced these numbers against a schedule of stiffs other than Baylor and Iowa St. and they only scored 57 total against Baylor as a team.
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1. Hey Bobby...let's just chalk up the home game screw-up to a major SNAFU on my part. 2. With regards to KK's defense, I think I covered it in the analysis by saying the following: "KK's defense will probably take Chazadi off her averages." 3. I've been thinking about how I can tweak the BENCH metric. I think I will see what combination of players actually plays 75-80 percent of the minutes from each team. Then I will compare stats from there. Have a nice holiday.
 
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cferraro04 said:
1. Hey Bobby...let's just chalk up the home game screw-up to a major SNAPFU on my part. 2. With regards to KK's defense, I think I covered it in the analysis by saying the following: "KK's defense will probably take Chazadi off her averages." 3. I've been thinking about how I can tweak the BENCH metric. I think I will see what combination of players actually plays 75-80 percent of the minutes from each team. Then I will compare stats from there. Have a nice holiday.
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I agree on #2. However, since Arnold has the advantage statistically and defensively, I'd say the overall advantage goes to Arnold. Happy holidays to you too.
 
Cferraro, you clearly put a lot of research and writing effort into your game analyses. Thank you for these ongoing contributions. They educate me.

Of course, there are other predictive ways to analyze a game than by mano a mano matchups. One could just state the offensive and defensive points per possession of both teams and conclude that UConn will win. But that would omit all the player details, stats and nuances your method elucidates. Frankly, I can't even name most of the starting lineups of most of UConn's opponents, much less be familiar with the rich details you provide.

Keep up the good fight, and too bad that fight often seems to require a bulletproof vest against friendly fire.
 
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I’m confused as to why you think Seiden is better than Williams, who was 2x all B1G and defensive player of the year in the same conference Iowa plays in. Did she become that much better over the summer?
 
uconnfan68 said:
I’m confused as to why you think Seiden is better than Williams, who was 2x all B1G and defensive player of the year in the same conference Iowa plays in. Did she become that much better over the summer?
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UConnfan68: Under no circumstances in the comparison do I try to say my own player is better than another one. If I were coaching UConn, would I trade Serah for Heiden? Hell No! I only have statistics to work from. One could look at both KK and Shade and say that they are not performing as well as they did when they were freshmen, and conclude that they are not as good as they once were. But, we all know that isn't true; they are both better players as juniors than they were as freshmen. Their roles have changed, there are more pieces around them, etc.

The same could be said about Williams, yes, she was 2x Big 10 defensive player of the year in the same league as Seiden. However, Williams is still trying to get comfortable in the UConn basketball system, and Heiden is in familiar territory, playing under the same system she played under last year. She has enjoyed a sophomore leap; she is comfortable in a familiar system while we all wait patiently for Serah Williams to feel comfortable in her new settings and have a breakout game. So the stats being what they are, Heiden averages 7.6 more points, 3.0 more rebounds, matches her in assists, averages .3 more steals, and averages .3 more blocks per game than does Serah. Until Serah starts putting up better numbers in a head-to-head matchup at this time, I have to go with Heiden. Maybe this will be the breakout game we have been waiting for...if it is, then it couldn't come at a better time, and I am always looking forward to my predictions being wrong if it means that UConn is the beneficiary of my mistakes.
 
Iowa is just another A-list team that is good, BUT not as good as Uconn. Uconn beat Iowa 3 times when they had Caitlyn Clark and Uconn lost in the last 5 seconds in the Final 4 game. by 2 points. Iowa has never faced the relentless defence that Uconn has and that makes all the difference we need. Does anybody believe that Iowa has the defence to stop Uconn? GO HUSKIES!!!!!!
 
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Just one more small point in Serah vs Heiden: Whatever difference in stats, figure in that Heiden plays 23.5 minutes per game as opposed to 18 per game for Serah.
 
Blanca is a true wild card.Opposing teams have very little scouting info on her. Even Geno has acknowledged her moves going to the basket are unpredictable.
 
Live Stats &1:
&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games (through 12/31/2025) are available via this schedule.
  • The link is removed for played games.
  • The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.
 
cferraro04 said:
UConnfan68: Under no circumstances in the comparison do I try to say my own player is better than another one. If I were coaching UConn, would I trade Serah for Heiden? Hell No! I only have statistics to work from. One could look at both KK and Shade and say that they are not performing as well as they did when they were freshmen, and conclude that they are not as good as they once were. But, we all know that isn't true; they are both better players as juniors than they were as freshmen. Their roles have changed, there are more pieces around them, etc.

The same could be said about Williams, yes, she was 2x Big 10 defensive player of the year in the same league as Seiden. However, Williams is still trying to get comfortable in the UConn basketball system, and Heiden is in familiar territory, playing under the same system she played under last year. She has enjoyed a sophomore leap; she is comfortable in a familiar system while we all wait patiently for Serah Williams to feel comfortable in her new settings and have a breakout game. So the stats being what they are, Heiden averages 7.6 more points, 3.0 more rebounds, matches her in assists, averages .3 more steals, and averages .3 more blocks per game than does Serah. Until Serah starts putting up better numbers in a head-to-head matchup at this time, I have to go with Heiden. Maybe this will be the breakout game we have been waiting for...if it is, then it couldn't come at a better time, and I am always looking forward to my predictions being wrong if it means that UConn is the beneficiary of my mistakes.
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Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
 
Basingstoke said:
Just one more small point in Serah vs Heiden: Whatever difference in stats, figure in that Heiden plays 23.5 minutes per game as opposed to 18 per game for Serah.
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Yup, I with you. I looked up the minutes per game stats too. I, for no specific reason, was surprised because both are below what I was expecting.
 
One last observation, based on rewatching the USC game this morning. This is kinda obvious, I guess, but there were times when Jazzy -- who is very talented -- just seemed lost on the court. This is what Geno's schemes are intended to produce. The ball moves so crisply on offense that defenders always seem out of place. It wasn't just that Azzi outplayed Jazzy, though she surely did. But it was really the whole team that contributed to this effect. Jazzy got a couple of good defensive stops against Azzi, including one block from the side coming around a screen. But mostly she was already a step behind, a step too late, not in the right position to defend Azzi.

But Geno's schemes take immense energy to make work, and this is why it sometimes seem like we run out of gas in the second half of games. It's also why we get whistled for more fouls then too. Ideally, Geno could use subs to mitigate this effect. But it takes time to get everyone on the same page. I suspect we're still a month away from having 10 players fully up to speed in the system. Ash and KK have an immense advantage over the newcomers in experience of the system. They always know where to be and where to expect others to be. When Kayleigh and Blanca enter the game, we lose a little bit of this crisp experience. They can make up for it, at least partially, by their athleticism. This is especially true of Blanca, who seems to shine in broken plays. At moments like that, she simply improvises, and this is both awesome given her skills and also a shortcoming, at least compared to what she'll be able to do in a month once she's totally internalized the system.

I realize that no simple matchup-based comparison can fully capture this aspect of the team. For example, Ash is much more important than any of her stats ever show. She may have a good shooting night or a bad one, but this is just the tip of the iceberg of her contributions. As Geno has said often, she makes things happen on the court. This is why he doesn't like sitting her down. But we don't have a direct way of quantifying this effect for individual players. BPM sort of gets at this, but only indirectly, and it needs a very large data set to make it really useful. In the absence of other stat-alternatives, individual matchups are pretty much all we have to go by.
 
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Basingstoke said:
Just one more small point in Serah vs Heiden: Whatever difference in stats, figure in that Heiden plays 23.5 minutes per game as opposed to 18 per game for Serah.
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I don't disagree with you that more minutes means elevated stats. But, I do have a question for you to ponder: What do you see changing in this game with regard to allocated minutes? I think it might be more likely, assuming Heiden doesn't get into foul trouble, that she may see more minutes. Also, what does the loss of Emaly Rodriguez do to Iowa's distribution of minutes?
 
Since this analysis took some incoming fire...I thought it would be interesting to compare the pregame analysis with the postgame results. The comparison was indeed interesting.

Pregame - Williams vs Heiden - ADV. Iowa (folks took issue with Williams being 2x all conference and minutes played vs Heiden's mins)
Post game: Williams - 23 minutes, 7 pts., 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers
Heiden - 19 minutes, 8 pts., 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Conclusion - given the shortened minutes for Heiden due to foul trouble and that she outperformed Williams in 4 out of 5 different categories...I would say the pregame analysis was correct.

Pregame - Strong vs Stuelke - ADV UConn (no disagreements there)
Post game: Strong - 34 minutes, 23 points, 7 RBs, 4 assists, 6 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Stuelke - 30 minutes, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was correct

Pregame - Fudd vs McCabe - ADV UCONN (no one disagreed with this prediction)
Post game: Fudd - 36 minutes - 27 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 5-13 from 3
McCabe - 28 minutes - 3 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 TOs
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was patently correct

Pregame - Shade vs Feuerbach (you would have to add in Stremlow after Feuerbach's injury)...ADV UCONN
Post game: Shade - 24 minutes 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Feuerbach - 9 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Stremlow - 27 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 6 TOs
Conclusion - Given that Feuerbach and Stremlow played collectively 3 6 minutes to Shades 24 minutes. I would have to say that the pregame analysis was, for the most part, correct.

Pregame - KK vs Wright: Some thought that my pregame prediction of ADV - EVEN was incorrect because of KK's relentless defense. Well, I think we saw some evidence of Wright being a tough assignment for KK...especially when "Chit-chat broke KK's ankles on the cross-over change of direction dribble.
Post game: KK - 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, 2-2 (three-pointers).
Wright - 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 turnovers, 4-8 (three-pointers)
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was incorrect, calling this a push...This was more accurately ADV - IOWA

BENCH:
Pregame - the prediction was ADV - EVEN
Post game - UConn - 21 points, 8 rebounds
Iowa - 20 points, 13 rebounds
Conclusion - The pregame analysis for the most part was correct.
 
cferraro04 said:
Since this analysis took some incoming fire...I thought it would be interesting to compare the pregame analysis with the postgame results. The comparison was indeed interesting.

Pregame - Williams vs Heiden - ADV. Iowa (folks took issue with Williams being 2x all conference and minutes played vs Heiden's mins)
Post game: Williams - 23 minutes, 7 pts., 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers
Heiden - 19 minutes, 8 pts., 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Conclusion - given the shortened minutes for Heiden due to foul trouble and that she outperformed Williams in 4 out of 5 different categories...I would say the pregame analysis was correct.

Pregame - Strong vs Stuelke - ADV UConn (no disagreements there)
Post game: Strong - 34 minutes, 23 points, 7 RBs, 4 assists, 6 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Stuelke - 30 minutes, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was correct

Pregame - Fudd vs McCabe - ADV UCONN (no one disagreed with this prediction)
Post game: Fudd - 36 minutes - 27 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 5-13 from 3
McCabe - 28 minutes - 3 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 TOs
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was patently correct

Pregame - Shade vs Feuerbach (you would have to add in Stremlow after Feuerbach's injury)...ADV UCONN
Post game: Shade - 24 minutes 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Feuerbach - 9 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Stremlow - 27 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 6 TOs
Conclusion - Given that Feuerbach and Stremlow played collectively 3 6 minutes to Shades 24 minutes. I would have to say that the pregame analysis was, for the most part, correct.

Pregame - KK vs Wright: Some thought that my pregame prediction of ADV - EVEN was incorrect because of KK's relentless defense. Well, I think we saw some evidence of Wright being a tough assignment for KK...especially when "Chit-chat broke KK's ankles on the cross-over change of direction dribble.
Post game: KK - 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, 2-2 (three-pointers).
Wright - 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 turnovers, 4-8 (three-pointers)
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was incorrect, calling this a push...This was more accurately ADV - IOWA

BENCH:
Pregame - the prediction was ADV - EVEN
Post game - UConn - 21 points, 8 rebounds
Iowa - 20 points, 13 rebounds
Conclusion - The pregame analysis for the most part was correct.
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Good on you, sensei! You deserve kudos again.

I would only quibble about one thing. Chit Chat didn’t “break KK’s ankles,” though the announcer described it that way. But the replay showed clearly that KK’s shoe merely slid on a slippery part of the midcourt logo, the very same spot Kylie Feuerbach had slipped on earlier. In fact, KK was lucky not suffer a similar injury.

That said, Chit Chat had a good game, though some of her points came in garbage time and none of KK’s did. More importantly however, she was as valuable to Iowa as KK was to UConn today. She was able to play the game Iowa needs from her and we weren’t able to prevent it. I’d say the same about Hannah Stuelke. Sarah outplayed her in absolute terms. But Hannah did what she usually does for her team. Iowa was dominated in the second half, but it wasn’t the fault of these two.
 
cferraro04 said:
Since this analysis took some incoming fire...I thought it would be interesting to compare the pregame analysis with the postgame results. The comparison was indeed interesting.

Pregame - Williams vs Heiden - ADV. Iowa (folks took issue with Williams being 2x all conference and minutes played vs Heiden's mins)
Post game: Williams - 23 minutes, 7 pts., 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers
Heiden - 19 minutes, 8 pts., 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 0 blocks, 1 turnover
Conclusion - given the shortened minutes for Heiden due to foul trouble and that she outperformed Williams in 4 out of 5 different categories...I would say the pregame analysis was correct.

Pregame - Strong vs Stuelke - ADV UConn (no disagreements there)
Post game: Strong - 34 minutes, 23 points, 7 RBs, 4 assists, 6 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover.
Stuelke - 30 minutes, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 turnovers
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was correct

Pregame - Fudd vs McCabe - ADV UCONN (no one disagreed with this prediction)
Post game: Fudd - 36 minutes - 27 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 5-13 from 3
McCabe - 28 minutes - 3 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 4 TOs
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was patently correct

Pregame - Shade vs Feuerbach (you would have to add in Stremlow after Feuerbach's injury)...ADV UCONN
Post game: Shade - 24 minutes 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Feuerbach - 9 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 1 TO
Stremlow - 27 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 6 TOs
Conclusion - Given that Feuerbach and Stremlow played collectively 3 6 minutes to Shades 24 minutes. I would have to say that the pregame analysis was, for the most part, correct.

Pregame - KK vs Wright: Some thought that my pregame prediction of ADV - EVEN was incorrect because of KK's relentless defense. Well, I think we saw some evidence of Wright being a tough assignment for KK...especially when "Chit-chat broke KK's ankles on the cross-over change of direction dribble.
Post game: KK - 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks, 0 turnovers, 2-2 (three-pointers).
Wright - 35 minutes, 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 3 turnovers, 4-8 (three-pointers)
Conclusion - The pregame analysis was incorrect, calling this a push...This was more accurately ADV - IOWA

BENCH:
Pregame - the prediction was ADV - EVEN
Post game - UConn - 21 points, 8 rebounds
Iowa - 20 points, 13 rebounds
Conclusion - The pregame analysis for the most part was correct.
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I would say Williams vs Heiden was even
 
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