Game Analysis - Game 11 - UConn vs Iowa State (Adjusted for Kelsey Joens replacing Kenzi Hare)

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Here we go again...we are facing another top-25 team when the Huskies meet #18 Iowa State on Tuesday. The Huskies had a pretty good bounce-back game after losing to the Irish. While the Hoyas were a scrappy team they were somewhat undersized against the Huskies. Both Sarah and Paige gave us what we expect from them. Ashlynn had a pretty good game. Our bigs still are a work in progress and Iowa State has a quality big in Audi Crooks. Iowa State's starting five bring some pretty good size. Outside of Crooks, Iowa's other big Addy Brown could also pose a challenge for UConn in the post. Emily Ryan is their floor general. I do not view Iowa State as a particularly deep team they go about 7 deep with their starting five doing most of the damage offensively. While Iowa is 9 and 3 it struck me that outside of South Carolina and Iowa University, they have not faced the level of competition that UConn has faced so far this season: Chicago State (RPI - 289; SOS - 70); Indiana State (RPI 263; SOS - 207); Southern (RPI - 167; SOS - 4); St. Thomas (RPI - 160; SOS - 215); University of Northern Illinois (RPI - 232; SOS - 287); Drake (RPI - 147; SOS - 103); South Carolina (RPI - 1; SOS - 1); Middle Tennessee (RPI - 87; SOS - 143); U Southern Carolina Upstate (RPI - 298; SOS - 163); Central Michigan (RPI - 250; SOS - 149); Iowa (RPI - 3; SOS - 3); Eastern Illinois (RPI - 220; SOS - 154).

Iowa State has three losses: South Carolina 76-36; Iowa 75 - 69; University of Northern Illinois 87 - 75. Iowa State's RPI is 114 and its SOS is 223 while UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 19. Suffice it to say that UConn's SOS will not be enhanced by playing Iowa State.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady - 6'3", R-Sophomore - Forward vs Audi Crooks 6'3" Sophomore - Center - Audi is Iowa State's first option on offense she is averaging 21.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game. I think this match-up will start with Ice but if Audi starts having her way with Ice then Geno will sub in Jana. This may be a match-up by committee. If UConn is successful in containing Audi then they will have this game going away. Ice is averaging 5.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. I would expect Jana and Ice to split time in this match-up. If the past is prologue then Audi should dominate in this position.
ADVANTAGE - IOWA STATE

Sarah Strong - 6'2", Freshman - Forward vs Addy Brown - 6'2", Sophomore - Forward - This is a great match-up. It will challenge our freshman phenom. Addy is Iowa's state's second option on offense. She averages 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists and she hits 1.5 three-pointers per game. She will be pitted against UConn's super-freshman Sarah Strong who is averaging 16.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, and hits 1.8 three-pointers per game. Sarah's stats are all American stats consistent across the board. Additionally, she has faced much stiffer competition to date this season.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0", R-senior - Guard vs Kelsey Joens - Kelsey averages 3.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and hits .75 three-pointers per game. Kelsey has only averaged 12.8 minutes but with Kenzi Hare going down to a season-ending injury will now be starting in her place if we adjust her totals for the 22.7 minutes that Kenzi was averaging we could expect that Kelsey will average 6.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Kelsey will face our All-American, future top WNBA draft choice Paige Bueckers. It won't be an easy night for Kelsey, I suspect she will be heavily overmatched in this match-up. Paige averages a team-best 20 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.3 steals, and she hits 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9", graduate - Guard vs Emily Ryan - 5'11", senior - Guard - Emily is Iowa's State's floor general she averages 7.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Kaitlyn averages 7.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Emily could be a handful for Kaitlyn. Kaitlyn has been impressive of late and I think that while Emily may have a slight edge in this match-up Kaitlyn will minimize her effectiveness will good on-ball defense.
ADVANTAGE - IOWA STATE

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10", sophomore - Guard vs Arianna Jackson - 5'9", sophomore - Guard - Arianna averages 4.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1 steal per game. She also hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn should continue her bounce-back from the ND game. Ashlynn averages 7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. She also hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. On paper this match-up looks even however, Ashlynn has faced much stiffer competition this year than Arianna has.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn brings 19.7 points and 12 rebounds off the bench per game while Iowa State brings 21.1 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. While this match-up looks even...I think that Iowa State's starters will play significant minutes and Iowa State's bench will play limited minutes while I think UConn's bench will play significant minutes. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at home and will be energized by the home crowd. Additionally, UConn is looking to build some momentum going into the game against USC. Furthermore, Iowa State has faced two top-25 teams, Iowa and South Carolina, UConn has consistently faced tougher competition and they will be ready for the challenges that Iowa State poses. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Daly and the excellent coaching staff of UConn will be prepared for Iowa State. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 82
Iowa State - 64
MOV - 18

 

[Blond D.]

If we are gonna win this game we are gonna have to prevent Crooks from getting the ball rather than try to guard her after she gets it.
Plus were gonna have to run their legs off.

 

[Zarathustra]

I thought that I read somewhere that Makenzie Hare
the 5'9" Junior Guard, 8.3 points and 22.7 minutes was
OUT for this game.
CONFIRMED on the IOWA STATE WEBSITE, I googled:
Makenzie Hare IOWA STATE BASKETBALL INJURY and
5 days ago, she decided to take a red-shirt year due
to a "hip injury" and will be OUT for the season.

 

[yhun89]

guard the entry pass. That’s how Audi gets points mainly. Cut off and deny Ryan and Brown and Audi isn’t doing anything but rebounds for the most part. In the press conference yesterday, Paige discussed the scouting report possibly including that.

Run them ragged too. Force a fast tempo. I assume ISU is going to try and slow that down for Audi but guards like KK and Chen can force them to play our game, not theirs.

 

[HuskyNan]

Iowa State’s game vs Iowa from 5 days ago

 

[HuskyNan]

Schedule

 

[ISUnorth]

I thought that I read somewhere that Makenzie Hare
the 5'9" Junior Guard, 8.3 points and 22.7 minutes was
OUT for this game.
CONFIRMED on the IOWA STATE WEBSITE, I googled:
Makenzie Hare IOWA STATE BASKETBALL INJURY and
5 days ago, she decided to take a red-shirt year due
to a "hip injury" and will be OUT for the season.

Looks like she will have hip surgery for an ongoing injury dating back to last year. Won't change the OP's position take much, just make the advantage for UConn and Bueckers larger. Lucy Olsen scored 24 pts versus this lineup and got to the line 9 times and had zero turnovers. If in man I am not sure who they will have trying to guard Page. Arianna Jackson is supposed to be the best guard defender.

Since Hare is out Sophomore Kelsey Joens started vs Iowa. Iowa City home town girl so maybe that's why she got the start. Freshman Ali Tanke started on Sunday versus the woeful Eastern Illinois. She is sort of an ace three point shooting one dimensional player and seems really slow on a team of slow guards. Fennelly seems to really like her so she could start versus UConn.

Something else to maybe throw into the hopper, Cyclones have not fared well away from the friendly home court in Ames, 1-3 away from home.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you again, Sensei! Excellent analysis.

This game is particularly of interest for me because I’ve long been a fan of Audi, since her high school days. She’s not just a big kid. She’s also a leader, or at least she was in high school and last year. It’s also worth noting that Ice played against her in AAU meets in high school. Neither one could stop the other from scoring, though it’s worth mentioning that in the game I saw, Ice didn’t have to guard Audi. That task was left to Kennedy Brown, who floundered in the role despite having a height advantage.

In the Iowa game, I noticed that Audi was significantly tired in several stretches and failed to contest a few plays from fatigue. I wonder if she hasn’t recovered her conditioning from last season yet. I suspect the advice a couple have already given in this thread is just right: make them run. If Audi can’t play at UConn’s pace, defending her in the low post won’t matter nearly as much.

Addy Brown is new to me and I didn’t know what to expect from her. But she‘s been impressive in a few games I was able to watch this season. I’m not so sure that Sarah has an obvious advantage, since Addy is a three-level scorer too. What this says to me is that our primary advantage will have to come from Paige Kaitlyn and Ash, and I have a feeling they won’t disappoint. This may even turn out to be a breakout game for Ash. And though Emily Ryan is a decent PG, she doesn’t look like she can really keep up with the combination of Kaitlyn and KK, and they don’t have a comparable backup for her. This is why the Ash-Arianna matchup may prove so decisive. A guard corps stretched to its limit elsewhere will start to crack trying to defend Paige and Ash. Of course, I have no expectation that Kelsey Joens can keep up with Paige. But it just looks like the stars may be aligning for Ash tomorrow.

 

[HopJim]

One data point that would be helpful is whether opponent is likely to throw a man to man or zone defense at the Huskies. Suspect Iowa State will mix in a zone to conserve energy versus UConn's speed. Some teams seem to do this praying that they get UConn on an off shooting night. In some past games, it took us a few minutes to adjust to this tactic. With UConn's relatively quick guards, I suspect Audi will see a lot of double teams when she gets the ball down low. If she could go full speed for an entire game, I would be more worried but after seeing the S. Carolina game where Iowa state faced a fast team, there is a reason Iowa State has 3 losses.

 

[HuskyNan]

One data point that would be helpful is whether opponent is likely to throw a man to man or zone defense at the Huskies. Suspect Iowa State will mix in a zone to conserve energy versus UConn's speed. Some teams seem to do this praying that they get UConn on an off shooting night. In some past games, it took us a few minutes to adjust to this tactic. With UConn's relatively quick guards, I suspect Audi will see a lot of double teams when she gets the ball down low. If she could go full speed for an entire game, I would be more worried but after seeing the S. Carolina game where Iowa state faced a fast team, there is a reason Iowa State has 3 losses.

I was happy to see UConn practicing trapping yesterday. It was Ransom that was trapped and she’s good enough to have eventually stepped between the defenders but it took a lot of time off the shot clock

 

[TC22]

Keep Crooks from getting deep in the paint and block out when they shoot so she doesn’t get the put back. That’s the game right there. Pretty simple.

 

[Bjbod]

Yeah, unless Crooks somehow puts up 35 ISU will be lucky to keep this within 20. Emily Ryan has been a real headscratcher this year, lots of dribbling and lots of turnovers. Really was a better player as a soph. Clones have some good shooters but really haven't produced as expected. Hansford girl shot 45% from 3 last year at Oregon St; so far 3/25 at ISU. Flaunt your superior athleticism and you'll be good.

 

[hart2hart]

Play like Sunday and we win! I’d like to see Morgan get more minutes.

 

[JellyBean]

Solid analysis as always. I am sure Iowa State players are looking to make a statement. Our players just have to continue that aggressive play they showed against Georgetown.

 

[Bone Dog]

Yeah, unless Crooks somehow puts up 35 ISU will be lucky to keep this within 20. Emily Ryan has been a real headscratcher this year, lots of dribbling and lots of turnovers. Really was a better player as a soph. Clones have some good shooters but really haven't produced as expected. Hansford girl shot 45% from 3 last year at Oregon St; so far 3/25 at ISU. Flaunt your superior athleticism and you'll be good.

Ryan had a major health scare over the summer. It was apparently tied to an eating disorder. It wasn’t clear she’d be able to return at all. I’m just glad to see her on the court.

 

[Zarathustra]

Yeah, unless Crooks somehow puts up 35 ISU will be lucky to keep this within 20. Emily Ryan has been a real headscratcher this year, lots of dribbling and lots of turnovers. Really was a better player as a soph. Clones have some good shooters but really haven't produced as expected. Hansford girl shot 45% from 3 last year at Oregon St; so far 3/25 at ISU. Flaunt your superior athleticism and you'll be good.

I truly appreciate the supportive thread note from a Hawkeye fan (note the insignia on #12 above.)
So, Bjbod, take care of that Big East girl, #33... the one with the big smile from
Penna!! Go Lucy!

 

[huskeynut]

Don't let the entry pass into Crooks. Force her to position farther out than she likes. You can also front her to deny the entry pass. Don't let their guards drive the lane to dish off. Control the boards.

Trap the guards, get steals and run as we did against Georgetown.

On offense, if Iowa State throws a zone up, get Paige, Ash, Sarah and Kaitlyn into the foul line area for shots. That is the weak point of zone defenses.

 

[Bald Husky]

Bottom line, Crooks is a handful and our Bigs will probably try to overpower her, but I think we know they can't. I hope Geno has Sarah stay away from her, let Ice and Jana deal with her. Sarah is our only reliable scorer besides Paige, and we can't afford to have her on the bench except for a small breather. If we can hold her to 20 than we will have a great night, if not, Paige and Sarah have to be on the floor to carry the team. Any contributions from the rest will be greatly appreciated and needed to win this game.

 

[OldSchooler]

Not trying to be nosy, but is there anything on Azzi (who didn't even dress for Sunday)?

 

[huskyd]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Here we go again...we are facing another top-25 team when the Huskies meet #18 Iowa State on Tuesday. The Huskies had a pretty good bounce-back game after losing to the Irish. While the Hoyas were a scrappy team they were somewhat undersized against the Huskies. Both Sarah and Paige gave us what we expect from them. Ashlynn had a pretty good game. Our bigs still are a work in progress and Iowa State has a quality big in Audi Crooks. Iowa State's starting five bring some pretty good size. Outside of Crooks, Iowa's other big Addy Brown could also pose a challenge for UConn in the post. Emily Ryan is their floor general. I do not view Iowa State as a particularly deep team they go about 7 deep with their starting five doing most of the damage offensively. While Iowa is 9 and 3 it struck me that outside of South Carolina and Iowa University, they have not faced the level of competition that UConn has faced so far this season: Chicago State (RPI - 289; SOS - 70); Indiana State (RPI 263; SOS - 207); Southern (RPI - 167; SOS - 4); St. Thomas (RPI - 160; SOS - 215); University of Northern Illinois (RPI - 232; SOS - 287); Drake (RPI - 147; SOS - 103); South Carolina (RPI - 1; SOS - 1); Middle Tennessee (RPI - 87; SOS - 143); U Southern Carolina Upstate (RPI - 298; SOS - 163); Central Michigan (RPI - 250; SOS - 149); Iowa (RPI - 3; SOS - 3); Eastern Illinois (RPI - 220; SOS - 154).

Iowa State has three losses: South Carolina 76-36; Iowa 75 - 69; University of Northern Illinois 87 - 75. Iowa State's RPI is 114 and its SOS is 223 while UConn's RPI is 5 and its SOS is 19. Suffice it to say that UConn's SOS will not be enhanced by playing Iowa State.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Ice Brady - 6'3", R-Sophomore - Forward vs Audi Crooks 6'3" Sophomore - Center - Audi is Iowa State's first option on offense she is averaging 21.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game. I think this match-up will start with Ice but if Audi starts having her way with Ice then Geno will sub in Jana. This may be a match-up by committee. If UConn is successful in containing Audi then they will have this game going away. Ice is averaging 5.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. I would expect Jana and Ice to split time in this match-up. If the past is prologue then Audi should dominate in this position.
ADVANTAGE - IOWA STATE

Sarah Strong - 6'2", Freshman - Forward vs Addy Brown - 6'2", Sophomore - Forward - This is a great match-up. It will challenge our freshman phenom. Addy is Iowa's state's second option on offense. She averages 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists and she hits 1.5 three-pointers per game. She will be pitted against UConn's super-freshman Sarah Strong who is averaging 16.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, and hits 1.8 three-pointers per game. Sarah's stats are all American stats consistent across the board. Additionally, she has faced much stiffer competition to date this season.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0", R-senior - Guard vs Kelsey Joens - Kelsey averages 3.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and hits .75 three-pointers per game. Kelsey has only averaged 12.8 minutes but with Kenzi Hare going down to a season-ending injury will now be starting in her place if we adjust her totals for the 22.7 minutes that Kenzi was averaging we could expect that Kelsey will average 6.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Kelsey will face our All-American, future top WNBA draft choice Paige Bueckers. It won't be an easy night for Kelsey, I suspect she will be heavily overmatched in this match-up. Paige averages a team-best 20 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.3 steals, and she hits 1.8 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Kaitlyn Chen - 5'9", graduate - Guard vs Emily Ryan - 5'11", senior - Guard - Emily is Iowa's State's floor general she averages 7.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Kaitlyn averages 7.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Emily could be a handful for Kaitlyn. Kaitlyn has been impressive of late and I think that while Emily may have a slight edge in this match-up Kaitlyn will minimize her effectiveness will good on-ball defense.
ADVANTAGE - IOWA STATE

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10", sophomore - Guard vs Arianna Jackson - 5'9", sophomore - Guard - Arianna averages 4.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1 steal per game. She also hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn should continue her bounce-back from the ND game. Ashlynn averages 7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. She also hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. On paper this match-up looks even however, Ashlynn has faced much stiffer competition this year than Arianna has.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

UConn brings 19.7 points and 12 rebounds off the bench per game while Iowa State brings 21.1 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. While this match-up looks even...I think that Iowa State's starters will play significant minutes and Iowa State's bench will play limited minutes while I think UConn's bench will play significant minutes. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

UConn will be playing at home and will be energized by the home crowd. Additionally, UConn is looking to build some momentum going into the game against USC. Furthermore, Iowa State has faced two top-25 teams, Iowa and South Carolina, UConn has consistently faced tougher competition and they will be ready for the challenges that Iowa State poses. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING:

Geno and Daly and the excellent coaching staff of UConn will be prepared for Iowa State. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UConn - 82
Iowa State - 64
MOV - 18

It would take a Teamster to guard Ms. Crooks.

 

[Jaml]

If Azzi is out again, that doesn't hurt UConn as much as Iowa State missing Kenzi Hare (and for the season no less). Our defense against 3 point shooters hasn't been great and they have that post presence with Crooks that can draw the defense into the paint, opening it up from the outside. Kenzi can absolutely light it up from 3. It is sad to see her gone for the year.