Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC | Page 3 | The Boneyard
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Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC

cferraro04 said:
I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6


​
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Thank You, Sensei! I love your insights!!!! Go Huskies! Z
 
Thanks, sensei for the analysis that always starts the dialogue!

My thoughts on both sides of the ball:

When the Huskies are on defense, I expect them to hold the Trojans to under 30 for the first half. I believe they will accomplish this by mixing up the defensive schemes like they have done so far this season, trying to keep the Trojans off-balance by showing them small ball looks and full court pressure before ultimately switching to a softer zone when the end of the bench comes in. I agree with several posters who believe Jazzy will get several people covering her (primarily Ash, Azzi, and Blanca), whereas KK and K9 will be focused on shutting down Samuels and Jones. In the meanwhile, I expect Serah, Jana and Sarah to effectively neutralize the USC bigs.

Sounds like a dominant defensive effort, correct? Maybe, maybe not. I think we will see USC try a lot of high screens in order to free up 3 point shots and create driving lanes to the basket. Therefore, the Huskies will have to be communicating very well in order to switch off on screens and to support on drives/slashes to the basket. If they are not communicating well and moving their feet constantly (like the UConn teams of 20-30 years ago discussed on other threads), the huge defensive advantage goes away. In that event, this game becomes (and stays) a LOT closer than it should. Taking that defensive imperatives lapse one step further, if USC gets hot from three, or the refs call a game tight, then we could easily see a single digit score differential the entire game.

Offensively, I expect the Huskies to score north of 80 unless everybody comes out cold from behind the arc like we witnessed in the 3rd quarter during the Michigan game. UConn has just too many offensive weapons for USC. Furthermore, the Huskies inside game on offense has improved dramatically from where it was last year, whereas the Trojan inside game on defense is weaker.

Regardless of which officiating crew works the game, I do NOT think they will take a "let the players play" mentality for the entire game. Either they will call it tight right from the beginning, or they will switch to calling a tighter game after half-time.

I would not be surprised if the home team's style of play dictates how the refs approach the game. Sort of like what we saw a few days ago when Iowa played at Iowa State. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as it will force the Huskies to adjust accordingly, which will be useful down the road against good teams in the NCAA tourney.

IMO, if UConn simply stays with a nine person rotation, this is a 30+ point win. That said, I believe Geno will be rotating end-of-the-bench players into the game which will keep the final MOV under 30.
 
As the game approaches, one thought -- watch out for fouls. If Sarah gets a couple in the first quarter, or even the first half, it may affect her ability to influence the outcome. Same for KK and Ashlynn. UConn is in the other guy's house, and some of those "could have gone either way" calls that UConn has benefited from (Let's face it: Sarah occasionally knocks people over and hasn't gotten called for it very much) are likely to go the other way.
 
Live Stats &1:
&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games (through 12/31/2025) are available via this schedule.
  • The link is removed for played games.
  • The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.
 
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tomcat said:
As the game approaches, one thought -- watch out for fouls. If Sarah gets a couple in the first quarter, or even the first half, it may affect her ability to influence the outcome. Same for KK and Ashlynn. UConn is in the other guy's house, and some of those "could have gone either way" calls that UConn has benefited from (Let's face it: Sarah occasionally knocks people over and hasn't gotten called for it very much) are likely to go the other way.
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I would add: and/or people flop in the wake of her drives...
 
I agree that in this game, Shade's statistics outperformed Dunn's; however, that does not alter the fact that on paper, Dunn should have had the advantage over Shade. That is where the analysis on a player-by-player basis falls short, as team dynamics come into play. No system of analysis is perfect and infallible. However, when examining the full body of work, many of the conclusions drawn in the player-by-player analysis were ultimately confirmed. For example, starting at the top:

Serah Williams vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, even though Gottlieb threw a monkey wrench into the analysis by starting Gerda Raulusaityte, worked out as forecasted. Serah Williams had 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 21 minutes of play. The combination of Vivian and Gerda (USC's twin 6'3" towers) produced 2 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, and 1 steal in 24 minutes of play. Clearly - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong vs Davidson...well Gottlieb and Geno threw us a curve on that one too...Azzi played Davidson for most of the game, and she did a great job holding Davidson to single-digit scoring until there were only 3 minutes left in the game. I felt holding Jazzy to single-digit scoring was one of the keys to winning the game, as in USC's two losses this season, Jazzy was held to single-digit scoring. But the question is, how did Strong fare in her match-up with Kennedy Smith? Keeping in mind, Sarah did not have a stellar game; in fact, her game was subpar. Yet, she had 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, and she hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-4 in 31 minutes of play. Kennedy, who had a better-than-average game, had 16 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-6 in 36 minutes of play. This match-up ended up being a push statistically. ADVANTAGE - EVEN. When you factor in impact on the game, one could argue that Sarah would have a slight advantage UConn in this game.

Azzi Fudd vs Kennedy Smith, as discussed above, Azzi did not match up with Kennedy; she instead went head-to-head with Jazzy. Luckily, the results were as forecasted, and Azzi dominated at that position and, in my opinion, was the key to this victory. Azzi had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She was all over Jazzy on defense for the entire game. Jazzy had 10 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 4 blocks, and hit on 2 of 3 three-pointers in 37 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlyn Shade vs Kara Dunn, Ashlynn had one of her best games offensively this year while having her usual good game defensively. She had 15 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She also only had one turnover. Kara Dunn had a tough day playing below her seasonal statistics, and yes, as many here mentioned in the comments on this thread, much of it had to do with Ashlynn's defense on her. Kara had 5 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, and shot 1-3 three-pointers. She also only had one turnover in 33 minutes of play...clearly in this game it was.... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold vs Malia Samuels, KK was played by committee in this game. Malia had her for 17 minutes, and Londynn Jones had her for 23 minutes. KK had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. The combination of Malia and Londynn had 16 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 6 turnovers in 40 minutes of play. While KK played tremendous defense offensively, it was... ADVANTAGE - USC

So, while I had it wrong with the advantage going to USC in the Shade match-up, it was offset by my also having it wrong with the advantage going to KK in her match-up. And, I would be remiss if I didn't bring up that the anticipated big advantage for UConn in the Sarah Strong match-up did not come to fruition, but I would attribute that to an anomaly, and if this game were played ten times, 9 out of ten times, Sarah would hold the advantage over Kennedy Smith. I would suggest that Blanca's dominant performance was as forecasted, and it impacted the game, giving UConn the momentum when she came into the game.

I also kind of felt it for Kaliegh Heckel...it was very difficult for her going up against her former team...the audience, I thought, overall were kind to her...I expected worse.

As far as the bench was concerned, as forecasted...ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Once again, it all comes out in the wash, and the overall player-by-player match-up analysis proves to be useful.
 
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KK was not outplayed by anyone on the court. She dominated defensively and that controlled the game. She ran the offense and didn't get turned over. I understand your pregame metrics but after the game eyes tell the tale.
 
cferraro04 said:
I agree that in this game, Shade's statistics outperformed Dunn's; however, that does not alter the fact that on paper, Dunn should have had the advantage over Shade. That is where the analysis on a player-by-player basis falls short, as team dynamics come into play. No system of analysis is perfect and infallible. However, when examining the full body of work, many of the conclusions drawn in the player-by-player analysis were ultimately confirmed. For example, starting at the top:

Serah Williams vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, even though Gottlieb threw a monkey wrench into the analysis by starting Gerda Raulusaityte, worked out as forecasted. Serah Williams had 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 21 minutes of play. The combination of Vivian and Gerda (USC's twin 6'3" towers) produced 2 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, and 1 steal in 24 minutes of play. Clearly - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong vs Davidson...well Gottlieb and Geno threw us a curve on that one too...Azzi played Davidson for most of the game, and she did a great job holding Davidson to single-digit scoring until there were only 3 minutes left in the game. I felt holding Jazzy to single-digit scoring was one of the keys to winning the game, as in USC's two losses this season, Jazzy was held to single-digit scoring. But the question is, how did Strong fare in her match-up with Kennedy Smith? Keeping in mind, Sarah did not have a stellar game; in fact, her game was subpar. Yet, she had 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, and she hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-4 in 31 minutes of play. Kennedy, who had a better-than-average game, had 16 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-6 in 36 minutes of play. This match-up ended up being a push statistically. ADVANTAGE - EVEN. When you factor in impact on the game, one could argue that Sarah would have a slight advantage UConn in this game.

Azzi Fudd vs Kennedy Smith, as discussed above, Azzi did not match up with Kennedy; she instead went head-to-head with Jazzy. Luckily, the results were as forecasted, and Azzi dominated at that position and, in my opinion, was the key to this victory. Azzi had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She was all over Jazzy on defense for the entire game. Jazzy had 10 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 4 blocks, and hit on 2 of 3 three-pointers in 37 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlyn Shade vs Kara Dunn, Ashlynn had one of her best games offensively this year while having her usual good game defensively. She had 15 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She also only had one turnover. Kara Dunn had a tough day playing below her seasonal statistics, and yes, as many here mentioned in the comments on this thread, much of it had to do with Ashlynn's defense on her. Kara had 5 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, and shot 1-3 three-pointers. She also only had one turnover in 33 minutes of play...clearly in this game it was.... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold vs Malia Samuels, KK was played by committee in this game. Malia had her for 17 minutes, and Londynn Jones had her for 23 minutes. KK had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. The combination of Malia and Londynn had 16 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 6 turnovers in 40 minutes of play. While KK played tremendous defense offensively, it was... ADVANTAGE - USC

So, while I had it wrong with the advantage going to USC in the Shade match-up, it was offset by my also having it wrong with the advantage going to KK in her match-up. And, I would be remiss if I didn't bring up that the anticipated big advantage for UConn in the Sarah Strong match-up did not come to fruition, but I would attribute that to an anomaly, and if this game were played ten times, 9 out of ten times, Sarah would hold the advantage over Kennedy Smith. I would suggest that Blanca's dominant performance was as forecasted, and it impacted the game, giving UConn the momentum when she came into the game.

I also kind of felt it for Kaliegh Heckel...it was very difficult for her going up against her former team...the audience, I thought, overall were kind to her...I expected worse.

As far as the bench was concerned, as forecasted...ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Once again, it all comes out in the wash, and the overall player-by-player match-up analysis proves to be useful.
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Sensei, I gotta agree with Bedford fan in that your post-game review of KK's match-up is a wee bit wonky. Setting aside the defensive side where I think we all agree that KK was exceptional, she was clearly superior on the offensive side as well.

Just the offensive numbers: KK seven points on 2-5/0-1/3-4 (FG/3PT/FT) - Samuels two points on 1-2/0-0/0-2; KK six assists and two turnovers (one of which was an offensive foul) - Samuels one assist and two turnovers.

Since you are going to add in Jones' offensive numbers (16 points on 3-10/0-6/8-9, zero assists and four turnovers) - presumably seen as favorable due to the eight free throws made - then it would only be fair to point out that of her nine free throw attempts, none were at the expense of KK: four from K9, four from Ashlynn and one from Jana. Furthermore, one of Jones two FGs came when KK was wasn't even on the court.

Simply put, although Jones often subbed in for Samuels, offensively she matched up against other Huskies.

Hence, looking back at the offense between KK and Samuels/Jones, the Trojan numbers look quite poor: six points, one assist and six turnovers.

That said, your pre-game analysis is very insightful, and I always enjoy reading it. Keep 'em coming!
 
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YKCornelius said:
Sensei, I gotta agree with Bedford fan in that your post-game review of KK's match-up is a wee bit wonky. Setting aside the defensive side where I think we all agree that KK was exceptional, she was clearly superior on the offensive side as well.

Just the offensive numbers: KK seven points on 2-5/0-1/3-4 (FG/3PT/FT) - Samuels two points on 1-2/0-0/0-2; KK six assists and two turnovers (one of which was an offensive foul) - Samuels one assist and two turnovers.

Since you are going to add in Jones' offensive numbers (16 points on 3-10/0-6/8-9, zero assists and four turnovers) - presumably seen as favorable due to the eight free throws made - then it would only be fair to point out that of her nine free throw attempts, none were at the expense of KK: four from K9, four from Ashlynn and one from Jana. Furthermore, one of Jones two FGs came when KK was wasn't even on the court.

Simply put, although Jones often subbed in for Samuels, offensively she matched up against other Huskies.

Hence, looking back at the offense between KK and Samuels/Jones, the Trojan numbers look quite poor: six points, one assist and six turnovers.

That said, your pre-game analysis is very insightful, and I always enjoy reading it. Keep 'em coming!
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Well said, @YKCornelius

I also thought something was off by adding Jones into the matchup postgame. That’s not how the pregame analyses work. But you really spelled out the problem.

That said, I eagerly await your next pregame analysis, @cferraro04 !
 
YKCornelius said:
Sensei, I gotta agree with Bedford fan in that your post-game review of KK's match-up is a wee bit wonky. Setting aside the defensive side where I think we all agree that KK was exceptional, she was clearly superior on the offensive side as well.

Just the offensive numbers: KK seven points on 2-5/0-1/3-4 (FG/3PT/FT) - Samuels two points on 1-2/0-0/0-2; KK six assists and two turnovers (one of which was an offensive foul) - Samuels one assist and two turnovers.

Since you are going to add in Jones' offensive numbers (16 points on 3-10/0-6/8-9, zero assists and four turnovers) - presumably seen as favorable due to the eight free throws made - then it would only be fair to point out that of her nine free throw attempts, none were at the expense of KK: four from K9, four from Ashlynn and one from Jana. Furthermore, one of Jones two FGs came when KK was wasn't even on the court.

Simply put, although Jones often subbed in for Samuels, offensively she matched up against other Huskies.

Hence, looking back at the offense between KK and Samuels/Jones, the Trojan numbers look quite poor: six points, one assist and six turnovers.

That said, your pre-game analysis is very insightful, and I always enjoy reading it. Keep 'em coming!
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I only added Jones to the post-game analysis because, given the criticism of the pre-game analysis, I thought examining the positions after the game and comparing them to my pre-game assessment would reveal where the errors may have occurred. Keep in mind KK played 30 minutes, and Malia only played 17, so someone picked up the other minutes. It appeared that Londynn Jones was that player. Therefore, it seemed logical to examine both Londynn's and Malia's production, as the position was covered by the committee. I thought it was a similar situation with regards to the twin 6'3" towers (Gerda and Vivian) that Gottlieb played interchangeably during the game. Gottlieb employed a by-committee approach to some of the positions during this game.

With regards to my pre-game analysis it seems that many of the posters here seem to think I had it right: KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Malia Samuels, 5'6" Junior Guard - This will be a match-up between two fast guards and should be interesting. Malia averages 3.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. KK is averaging 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN. I would agree with the consensus if the match-up was between KK and Malia for the entire game...but, based on the minutes each played, I can't say that was the case. It was KK Arnold vs Malia Samuels and Londynn Joness.

I would say that at this point it doesn't matter...I am sure I will have some more misstated forecasts in future pregame analysis. We can only look at the data and try to draw some conclusions from it. The reality is, things don't always work out the way they are predicted...that is why they play the games.
 
I'm pretty sure that there will be difficulties in predicting matchups in the future, if only for reasons of opposing team's strategy. In a David Vs. Goliath situation, David can't play to their traditional pattern, or the end results will be predictable. David has to break with their predictable pattern for there to be any chance to succeed. If David plays to their scouting reporting from the opposition, it's over. To that end, no matter which UConn player you pick, they will almost always face a committee. I'd say it's hard to do a better pre-game analysis than you're already doing based on the disruption model that other teams need to use.
 
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