Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC

[Bone Dog]

By the numbers I can see the advantage to whoever’s matched up against Ash. . . However, I think there must be a reason that she gets a lot of minutes.

On more than one occasion, Geno has said he doesn't like to take Ash off the floor unless he has to. He has a lot of comical ways of explaining this, but in the end it's probably sort of like with Nika, as you suggest.

 

[cferraro04]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the past five games and compare my analysis of Ashlynn Shade's match-ups.

UConn vs DePaul - I said slight advantage Shade - Results: Shade: 3 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals; Nelson: 2 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal. I think I got this one right

UConn vs South Florida - I said advantage Stefanie Ingram - Results: Shade 10 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, Ingram: Had a bad shooting night 1-7 (Shade may have something to do with that); 3 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal...I was right in the other metrics except for points scored...so, no anti-Shade bias detected there

UConn vs Xavier - I said Advantage Shade...so, I think I get a pass on that one.

UConn vs Utah - I said Advantage Even...Results: Shade 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals. Maty: 5 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 rebound. Results...I wasn't far off on this one either

UConn vs Mich - I said Advantage Michigan (Swords): Was I ever right on this one... Shade 8 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; Swords - 29 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists.

I don't see any Anti-Shade bias in these anaylsis.

 

[DEpup]

I think this analysis is great to generate thought and discussion. I have some thoughts:
1. I agree that Sarah will mostly defend Smith.
2. Jazzy will get the full defensive treatment and I think they will mix defenders constantly so she can't get a rhythm. That's what makes the analysis tough with a UConn team. I suspect she'll get a terrorizing heavy dose of Ash, Azzi, Blanca, Sarah, and even KK and K9 if she goes into PG mode to try and get the offense going.
3. There is no good reason to all of the sudden change the starting line up for a big game. It will undermine their confidence and just confuse everything. You want your players just playing and not thinking through a new rotation. Blanca will come in at the 5 minute mark like usual. UConn players are taught to defend taller players.
4. The stat comparisons are sort of apples and oranges since Jazzy and Smith especially are in the 35+ minute club where Sarah and Azzi are cheerleaders by around their 22nd minute...
5. Don't forget about Jones in the PG discussion since she averages more minutes than their starting PG. However, neither one has weapons to really hurt KK or K9 if they keep their cool.

I think it is going to be hard for them to initiate offense if KK and company can bring on the trap before the little speedy guards can get going.

I'm sure though they will shoot more 3s then they ever have and the score will be closer than it should be... UConn gets everyone's best shot.

 

[JoePgh]

Interesting discussion (and defense) regarding Ashlynn's standing in these evaluations. I would say that I'm with the OP here -- I don't detect systematic anti-Shade bias. BUT ...

I do detect an overemphasis in all of these match-up predictions on (1) raw height; and (2) individual statistical comparisons. The problem with height is that unless the disparity is large (5 inches or more), speed / quickness / athleticism / wingspan dominate the 1-on-1 matchups much more than raw height. How much has Sarah been disadvantaged because she is 2 or 3 inches smaller than most of the players that she guards? Answer: hardly at all.

The other complicating factor is that UConn does so much switching on defense that judging an opponent's offensive chances based on how she may match up against one specific UConn player is not very informative. At the other end, UConn's offense forces so many switches by the opponent that the same is true on that end.

I agree that this is a game where Blanca may well get 25 minutes or more -- it seems tailor-made for her skills. I will be interested to see if her stat line matches that of Jazzy Davidson -- I think that may be possible if she stays out of foul trouble. (Big IF!)

The other sub-story that I will be watching is how K9 plays against her former team. Can she play against USC better than she played against UConn in two games last year? She played pretty well in last year's games, so if she plays better than that (and gets more minutes, which is likely), it could be a decisive factor in the game.

 

[Bone Dog]

I need to adjust a couple of my remarks, because I had understated Jazzy's rebounds and Malia's minutes. I had only been able to watch the first few games of the season. Now having had a chance to watch a couple of later games, I can see my mistake. Malia was getting 25-30 mins early on this season. But she seems to have given up some minutes to Londynn Jones and is down to 20 mins. And what I hadn't recognized is how central Jazzy is to USC's rebounding. She leads the team. I had focused only on her scoring.

In light of this, I have a feeling Sensei may be right to see her ending up playing against Sarah more than against the smaller guards. Of course, the consequence of this will probably be the same, that her game will suffer the more she has to muscle up against Sarah. If this happens and her rebounding numbers decline, this will put a lot of pressure on Vivian and Gerda Raulusaityte (try typing that name from memory!) to take up the slack. Since they’re both only 6'3", I have a feeling they'll struggle against our front court, which can be both bigger and quicker by turns

 

[HopJim]

One comment stands out: 'Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring'. I expect this to be the focus of the team and coaching staff and the key to an important victory against a ranked opponent.

Suggest Blanca gets her season high minutes, spending most of it trailing Jazzy. Would not want to have her guard me tightly for most of the game. Guessing that this will be primarily a small lineup game for UConn with minimal minutes for Williams.

 

[Majic Hands]

I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the past five games and compare my analysis of Ashlynn Shade's match-ups.

UConn vs DePaul - I said slight advantage Shade - Results: Shade: 3 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals; Nelson: 2 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal. I think I got this one right

UConn vs South Florida - I said advantage Stefanie Ingram - Results: Shade 10 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, Ingram: Had a bad shooting night 1-7 (Shade may have something to do with that); 3 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal...I was right in the other metrics except for points scored...so, no anti-Shade bias detected there

UConn vs Xavier - I said Advantage Shade...so, I think I get a pass on that one.

UConn vs Utah - I said Advantage Even...Results: Shade 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals. Maty: 5 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 rebound. Results...I wasn't far off on this one either

UConn vs Mich - I said Advantage Michigan (Swords): Was I ever right on this one... Shade 8 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; Swords - 29 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists.

I don't see any Anti-Shade bias in these anaylsis.

I’m not disagreeing with the numbers you’re comparing.

GollyGee my mind melts just a bit whenever I think about the work that’s done putting it together.

Having said that. Ash’s contribution resulted in a National Championship. And went through, what 3 #1 ranked teams to do so?

It kinda bugged me every time it gets to Ash and. . .

I’m not going to beat a dead horse.

 

[Centerstream]

I feel for you @cferraro04
Even though I have pointed out items you have posted in your analysis of each game, some of which that could be considered disagreements, I really, really respect the effort that you put into each one and appreciate that you posted every single one of them.
Keep up the effort and I will try my best to show you the proper appreciation that you deserve.
The same appreciation applies to you, @oldude and your Postgame threads.

 

[Dugway]

This game has me pondering many things. USC is a good team, even without the star. UConn has to travel to them; look at a map, could not travel too much further and still be in the lower 48. And, I don’t see us stumbling at all throughout the Big East schedule, so if there is going to be a blemish it would likely come around this point of the season. What if maybe one of our players has an illness and another just doesn’t play well at all?

In the “Prediction” thread, several weeks ago I was certain that UConn would beat Michigan by 25 … um, an over/under of 2.5 would have been a better prediction. UConn with a big lead at the half, then lost the third quarter by sixteen points or something like that. And, that 3rd quarter still tends to be our Achilles heel!

The flip side, last year I was predicting 23 to 28 point MOV regularly and was right there virtually every game. This season? Geez, we are beating teams by 50 to 60 points! Literally double the margin of victory from last season. And those huge blowouts are primarily a result of the way we play aggressive defense, forcing turnovers which leads to running the floor at a very fast pace.

Is this going to be an evenly matched game with a single digit MOV? Can the Trojans slow the tempo and keep it close providing them a chance to win it in the end?

No, I don’t see that. My gut is telling me UConn 85, USC 49; something like a 35 point MOV, and that is only because we are going to coast on a big lead down the stretch. The dawgs are gonna eat!

 

[Bone Dog]

I agree -- everyone should stop criticizing @cferraro04! What sensei does is an invaluable service. It's not that the analysis gets everything right or wrong. It's that it lays out who the opposition is, what they've done so far, and offers a guess about how each matchup will play out. The point is to allow us to disagree or agree with each other as we chew on the prospects. I am always grateful for the work that went into these and look forward to the next one every week of the season.

Yay, Sensei!

 

[MooseJaw]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

Agree 100%, why I called out another bit he wrote on a Game did nothing to tell the story on Ash. She is the most active player on the court for UConn. No need to go into all she does most people except sensei, don't understand the constant overlooking what Ash brings to the court, just diminishes your contributions.

 

[MSGRET]

In comparison between last years game and this years game UConn has a major advantage. They have 32 of the 70 points returning from last years team, while USC has only 9 of their 72 points returning. UConn's additions to the team is contributing more than their counterparts on USC. The Trojans are averaging 59.75 points a game, while giving up 62 points against Massey's Top 100 rated teams., while UConn is averaging 88 points vs giving up only 60.3 points. Vegas currently has UConn between 13 and 15+ point favorite over USC. If I remember correctly they had the Huskies as only 20 points favorite against FSU, 23 against Ohio State and 29 against Utah. I think they were a little off on those games. USC has not played a team as quick as UConn nor a team that has a smothering defense like the Huskies.

 

[Inthepaint]

The analysis lets me know who the players are on the opposing team
This way, when I watch the game I have an idea of what to look for.
Any conclusions regarding match ups are obviously subject to changing circumstances during the game
Thank you Sensai for your efforts

 

[ERWUC65]

Agree 100%, why I called out another bit he wrote on a Game did nothing to tell the story on Ash. She is the most active player on the court for UConn. No need to go into all she does most people except sensei, don't understand the constant overlooking what Ash brings to the court, just diminishes your contributions.

I, for one, thank Sensai for all his efforts in preparing and publishing his post. He deals in facts and figures that are consistent and mostly accurate. These numbers mostly do not factor in emotions, heart, and other intangibles. If he was to try to do this he would never get something out to us in a timely fashion as he does now. If any of the critics here think they can do better, please feel free to start a similar thread with content specific to your interests.

 

[asuwish]

Agree completely. Ashlynn is the best defensive player on this team. She always manages to either block a passing lane, tip a pass, rebound, or help double-up on a ball-handler. The person she's guarding never has an easy or wide-open shot.

In what world is she the best defensive player?

 

[MooseJaw]

I, for one, thank Sensai for all his efforts in preparing and publishing his post. He deals in facts and figures that are consistent and mostly accurate. These numbers mostly do not factor in emotions, heart, and other intangibles. If he was to try to do this he would never get something out to us in a timely fashion as he does now. If any of the critics here think they can do better, please feel free to start a similar thread with content specific to your interests.

If you are so smart you do better. If you don't like my opinion, you are free to ignore. I did not mention things you did. You are free to turn my words anyway you want. I and many others feel he has given Ash the short shift. I never said his posts were for the most part not accurate. Many times I have praised his efforts, this is the only area where I have differences. Boring life if we were always in agreement on every issue. You are free to agree with me as you have done. Saying he is mostly accurate. I mention one area where I disagree, there are areas where you disagree also, or you would not have written mostly accurate.

 

[Dogdude]

After thinking about the whole thing, I'm not sure that a pre-game analysis could be done any better. The minute you start trying to factor in intangibles, it becomes nothing more than a discussion on subjective qualities, better left for subjects like who really does make the best chili dog. You can't come up with anything concrete enough to call it analysis, it's merely another bunch of opinions. As for the head-to-head comparisons, we all know (or should know by now) that we switch defenses during the course of just about every possession. Same with offenses: those having a poor shooting night, or a night where they're covered well, are only too happy to pass to an open shooter. We don't see a lot of 6-20 shooting nights, as our players are smart enough to know that if they're double teamed, someone is open. We don't force shots, as opposed to many opponent's top players. But you have to start somewhere, or else, once again, it's just a bunch of chatter. Don't change, cferraro04, it's as good a job as can be done.

 

[cferraro04]

I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6

​

 

[trisailin]

The shortcoming of any "one on one" analysis is that basketball is a team game. If you look at the player combinations listed after each game show repeatedly the same thing. Ash is a vital part to the most effective combination. The starting 5 is the most effective group. Any player change from that group results in a reduction.

Charlies analysis good and helpful. I appreciate it.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I for one really look forward to Sensai's forecast!
I don't know all the players on opposing teams, so his presentation prepares me for the game ahead!
When people complain about his presentation after awhile it's not fun anymore, it's a chore!
He shouldn't have to explain his reasoning for match ups!
He does it because he's a stats/match up fanatic like I am!
I used to do the pre-seeding for the ECC Wrestling Tournament.
Keeping track of all matches wrestled in the conference then handing out copies of my paperwork of each weight class at the seed meeting, cutting time for the meeting down by at least 1 1/2 hours!
I told them there's nothing to complain about it's all results driven!
When I predict the seeds earned its what their results tell me!
So sensai keep up your great work keeping me and the rest prepared for the upcoming game!

 

[BrianUC]

I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6

​

The pregame analysis is always valuable -- thanks cferraro04!.

Now, as to the last argument, the stats are a bit selective. Ashlynn Shade is shooting 36% while all the other players (starter and bench, except Fisher and Ducharme) are hitting 50% plus. Last year Shade was 48%. Of course she's in a slump. A shooting slump, anyway.

 

[Pharos]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Hard to believe that with this game, we are looking at the first third of the regular season and the first quarter of the entire season, including the postseason. The first thing that comes to mind when I think of this game is Juju Watson and how different this game would be if she were playing. The second thing I think of is a 4-guard lineup, albeit some pretty big guards, and the difficulties that that presents. Then the third thing I think of is Geno may be in a position where he has no choice but to tinker with the starting lineup.

USC will be playing at home, and they should be starting the following players: Vivian Iwachukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward; Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard; Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard; Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Malia Samuels, 5'6" - Senior Guard. As you may see, there are some height advantages and some possible matchup problems for UConn. This leads me to think that Geno may tinker with the starting line-up...he may move Ashlynn to coming off the bench and use Blanca in the starting lineup. This will give him the benefit of more height in the starting five. On the other hand, Geno is a creature of habit in that he likes to stick with his starting five. So, in this analysis, I will stick with the five he has been using but with the caveat that we may see Blanca brought in earlier than usual.

UConn will face a nationally ranked opponent (#16) in this one. USC has dropped two games so far this season. They lost to South Carolina early in the season by 17 and to Notre Dame by 2. In both losses, Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring. I am quite sure that this fact isn't lost on Geno and his staff. USC is currently ranked 10th in RPI and 15th in SoS. UConn is ranked 3rd in RPI and 18th in SoS. UConn is 1st in the NET ratings while USC is 20th. No matter what marker you use to rank these teams, the result is that we should see a pretty good game, and it should be a good test for UConn.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward - Vivian started in 7 of 9 games. She averages 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. She is currently USC's most productive big. Serah is averaging 7.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 block per game. This is a good opportunity for Serah to have a good game in the paint.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard - This should be an interesting matchup. Jazzy, a big guard, has been USC's most productive player, and when Juju comes back, these two are going to wreak havoc on their opponents. However, USC seems to go as Jazzy goes. If Jazzy has an off-scoring day, USC usually loses. So, Sarah's defense in this game is crucial. Hopefully, she will not pick up fouls and have to go to the bench. Jazzy averages 16.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 1.56 three-pointers per game. Her steals and 2.3 blocks belie her quick hands on defense. Sarah Strong averages 17.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 3.4 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. Sarah hits 1.1 three-pointers per game. This really should be a great match-up and should provide some exciting moments in this game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard - Here we have another big guard, which is why I think we will see Blanca early and Azzi will switch over to guard Kara Dunn as Ashlynn goes to the bench. However, we will analyze this match-up with Azzi vs Kennedy. Kennedy averages 10.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Azzi is averaging 18.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. Azzi hits 3.44 three-pointers per game while shooting an incredible .534 on three-point attempts. This is a good match-up, and Kennedy's size could cause Azzi some problems, which bringing in Blanca and moving Azzi over to Kara would fix. Regardless of the match-up issues that Kennedy may present to Azzi, I still think Azzi will prevail in this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Senior Guard - We may see an early substitution with Blanca coming into the game and Ashlynn going to the bench, which would move Azzi Fudd over to defending Kara. We don't know what adjustments Geno may have in mind. However, in this match-up, Kara averages 11.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.6 steals, and averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and hits on 1.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - USC

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Malia Samuels, 5'6" Junior Guard - This will be a match-up between two fast guards and should be interesting. Malia averages 3.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. KK is averaging 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

USC brings 31 points and 19 rebounds off the bench, while UConn brings 36 points and 15.6 rebounds off the bench
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played in CA and is a home game for USC. A long lay-off for UConn, almost a week, could see some players working off some rust. Both teams have talent and experience at the guard position. UConn enjoys a height advantage in the post.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

USC has a veteran coaching staff with Lindsey Gottlieb as the head coach. Lindsey has faced UConn before she knows what to expect; she has former UConn starter Willnett Crockett on her staff. Gottlieb has Beth Burns as her Associate Coach, who was the Defensive Special Assistant Coach for Louisville and helped bring them to the final four two times and two times to the elite eight. UCONN's coaching staff speaks for itself. 12 national titles and forever final four appearances, the most tenured Associate Coach in women's basketball in Coach Dailey, two former coaches in Jamelle Elliot and Tonya Cardoza. You throw in Morgan Valley and you have what is probably the best coaching staff in women's college basketball. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 85
USC - 62
MOV - 23

Kara Dunn does as well as she does when Ashlynn Shade isn't guarding her. Advantage: UConn.

 

[Pharos]

Maybe you should rethink this comment, as I only endeavor to present fair analysis. If I am biased, it is pro-UConn; sometimes it is difficult to take off my blue colored glasses. In this case, as in many of the other cases where I have Ashlynn losing the match-up it is because there is more than one metric that works against Ashlynn in the match-up. In this one, Ashlynn starts with a 3-inch deficit in height. The game statistics are as follows: Kara averages 11.4 points, Ashlynn 7.6 points (check for Kara) Kara 5.4 rebounds, Ashlynn 3.2 rebounds (check for Kara); Kara 1.3 assists, Ashlynn 2.6 assists (check for Ashlynn); Kara 1.6 steals, Ashlynn 1.6 steals (in this case we have a push) and Kara averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. (a very slight check for Kara). So you can see the conclusion was based on more than one matrix. Ashlynn's defensive stats do not differentiate themselves from Kara's; therefore, a non-factor in this analysis. For the record, Ashlynn is one of my favorite players, gives 100 percent all the time. She is sometimes in match-ups that don't favor her in a head-to-head comparison.

Guess we'll see...

 

[HopJim]

Serah and Vivian. Don't know how you can rate one higher than the other. Serah's stats are mainly from games where she was guarded by a 3+ inches shorter player. Virtually all shots from under basket. Even against these shorter players, Serah got pushed around and did not have strong rebounding games. While I expect Serah to get better throughout the year, her start has been bumpy.

 

[Skeets]

The shortcoming of any "one on one" analysis is that basketball is a team game. If you look at the player combinations listed after each game show repeatedly the same thing. Ash is a vital part to the most effective combination. The starting 5 is the most effective group. Any player change from that group results in a reduction.

Charlies analysis good and helpful. I appreciate it.

I was going to say the same thing. The problem is it's not 5 1-on-1 games, it's 1 5-on-5 game. There is no way to quantify this. I don't know of any solution. The analysis is about as good as it could be.