Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC

ERWUC65 said:
One comment stands out: 'Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring'. I expect this to be the focus of the team and coaching staff and the key to an important victory against a ranked opponent.
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Suggest Blanca gets her season high minutes, spending most of it trailing Jazzy. Would not want to have her guard me tightly for most of the game. Guessing that this will be primarily a small lineup game for UConn with minimal minutes for Williams.
 
cferraro04 said:
I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the past five games and compare my analysis of Ashlynn Shade's match-ups.

UConn vs DePaul - I said slight advantage Shade - Results: Shade: 3 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals; Nelson: 2 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal. I think I got this one right

UConn vs South Florida - I said advantage Stefanie Ingram - Results: Shade 10 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, Ingram: Had a bad shooting night 1-7 (Shade may have something to do with that); 3 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal...I was right in the other metrics except for points scored...so, no anti-Shade bias detected there

UConn vs Xavier - I said Advantage Shade...so, I think I get a pass on that one.

UConn vs Utah - I said Advantage Even...Results: Shade 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals. Maty: 5 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 rebound. Results...I wasn't far off on this one either

UConn vs Mich - I said Advantage Michigan (Swords): Was I ever right on this one... Shade 8 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; Swords - 29 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists.

I don't see any Anti-Shade bias in these anaylsis.
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I’m not disagreeing with the numbers you’re comparing.

GollyGee my mind melts just a bit whenever I think about the work that’s done putting it together.

Having said that. Ash’s contribution resulted in a National Championship. And went through, what 3 #1 ranked teams to do so?

It kinda bugged me every time it gets to Ash and. . .

I’m not going to beat a dead horse.
 
I feel for you @cferraro04
Even though I have pointed out items you have posted in your analysis of each game, some of which that could be considered disagreements, I really, really respect the effort that you put into each one and appreciate that you posted every single one of them.
Keep up the effort and I will try my best to show you the proper appreciation that you deserve.
The same appreciation applies to you, @oldude and your Postgame threads.
 
This game has me pondering many things. USC is a good team, even without the star. UConn has to travel to them; look at a map, could not travel too much further and still be in the lower 48. And, I don’t see us stumbling at all throughout the Big East schedule, so if there is going to be a blemish it would likely come around this point of the season. What if maybe one of our players has an illness and another just doesn’t play well at all?

In the “Prediction” thread, several weeks ago I was certain that UConn would beat Michigan by 25 … um, an over/under of 2.5 would have been a better prediction. UConn with a big lead at the half, then lost the third quarter by sixteen points or something like that. And, that 3rd quarter still tends to be our Achilles heel!

The flip side, last year I was predicting 23 to 28 point MOV regularly and was right there virtually every game. This season? Geez, we are beating teams by 50 to 60 points! Literally double the margin of victory from last season. And those huge blowouts are primarily a result of the way we play aggressive defense, forcing turnovers which leads to running the floor at a very fast pace.

Is this going to be an evenly matched game with a single digit MOV? Can the Trojans slow the tempo and keep it close providing them a chance to win it in the end?

No, I don’t see that. My gut is telling me UConn 85, USC 49; something like a 35 point MOV, and that is only because we are going to coast on a big lead down the stretch. The dawgs are gonna eat!
 
I agree -- everyone should stop criticizing @cferraro04! What sensei does is an invaluable service. It's not that the analysis gets everything right or wrong. It's that it lays out who the opposition is, what they've done so far, and offers a guess about how each matchup will play out. The point is to allow us to disagree or agree with each other as we chew on the prospects. I am always grateful for the work that went into these and look forward to the next one every week of the season.

Yay, Sensei!
 
sno-cat said:
No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.
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Agree 100%, why I called out another bit he wrote on a Game did nothing to tell the story on Ash. She is the most active player on the court for UConn. No need to go into all she does most people except sensei, don't understand the constant overlooking what Ash brings to the court, just diminishes your contributions.
 
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In comparison between last years game and this years game UConn has a major advantage. They have 32 of the 70 points returning from last years team, while USC has only 9 of their 72 points returning. UConn's additions to the team is contributing more than their counterparts on USC. The Trojans are averaging 59.75 points a game, while giving up 62 points against Massey's Top 100 rated teams., while UConn is averaging 88 points vs giving up only 60.3 points. Vegas currently has UConn between 13 and 15+ point favorite over USC. If I remember correctly they had the Huskies as only 20 points favorite against FSU, 23 against Ohio State and 29 against Utah. I think they were a little off on those games. USC has not played a team as quick as UConn nor a team that has a smothering defense like the Huskies.
 
The analysis lets me know who the players are on the opposing team
This way, when I watch the game I have an idea of what to look for.
Any conclusions regarding match ups are obviously subject to changing circumstances during the game
Thank you Sensai for your efforts
 
MooseJaw said:
Agree 100%, why I called out another bit he wrote on a Game did nothing to tell the story on Ash. She is the most active player on the court for UConn. No need to go into all she does most people except sensei, don't understand the constant overlooking what Ash brings to the court, just diminishes your contributions.
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I, for one, thank Sensai for all his efforts in preparing and publishing his post. He deals in facts and figures that are consistent and mostly accurate. These numbers mostly do not factor in emotions, heart, and other intangibles. If he was to try to do this he would never get something out to us in a timely fashion as he does now. If any of the critics here think they can do better, please feel free to start a similar thread with content specific to your interests.
 
Kat said:
Agree completely. Ashlynn is the best defensive player on this team. She always manages to either block a passing lane, tip a pass, rebound, or help double-up on a ball-handler. The person she's guarding never has an easy or wide-open shot.
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In what world is she the best defensive player?
 
ERWUC65 said:
I, for one, thank Sensai for all his efforts in preparing and publishing his post. He deals in facts and figures that are consistent and mostly accurate. These numbers mostly do not factor in emotions, heart, and other intangibles. If he was to try to do this he would never get something out to us in a timely fashion as he does now. If any of the critics here think they can do better, please feel free to start a similar thread with content specific to your interests.
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If you are so smart you do better. If you don't like my opinion, you are free to ignore. I did not mention things you did. You are free to turn my words anyway you want. I and many others feel he has given Ash the short shift. I never said his posts were for the most part not accurate. Many times I have praised his efforts, this is the only area where I have differences. Boring life if we were always in agreement on every issue. You are free to agree with me as you have done. Saying he is mostly accurate. I mention one area where I disagree, there are areas where you disagree also, or you would not have written mostly accurate.
 
After thinking about the whole thing, I'm not sure that a pre-game analysis could be done any better. The minute you start trying to factor in intangibles, it becomes nothing more than a discussion on subjective qualities, better left for subjects like who really does make the best chili dog. You can't come up with anything concrete enough to call it analysis, it's merely another bunch of opinions. As for the head-to-head comparisons, we all know (or should know by now) that we switch defenses during the course of just about every possession. Same with offenses: those having a poor shooting night, or a night where they're covered well, are only too happy to pass to an open shooter. We don't see a lot of 6-20 shooting nights, as our players are smart enough to know that if they're double teamed, someone is open. We don't force shots, as opposed to many opponent's top players. But you have to start somewhere, or else, once again, it's just a bunch of chatter. Don't change, cferraro04, it's as good a job as can be done.
 
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I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6


​
 
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The shortcoming of any "one on one" analysis is that basketball is a team game. If you look at the player combinations listed after each game show repeatedly the same thing. Ash is a vital part to the most effective combination. The starting 5 is the most effective group. Any player change from that group results in a reduction.

Charlies analysis good and helpful. I appreciate it.
 
I for one really look forward to Sensai's forecast!
I don't know all the players on opposing teams, so his presentation prepares me for the game ahead!
When people complain about his presentation after awhile it's not fun anymore, it's a chore!
He shouldn't have to explain his reasoning for match ups!
He does it because he's a stats/match up fanatic like I am!
I used to do the pre-seeding for the ECC Wrestling Tournament.
Keeping track of all matches wrestled in the conference then handing out copies of my paperwork of each weight class at the seed meeting, cutting time for the meeting down by at least 1 1/2 hours!
I told them there's nothing to complain about it's all results driven!
When I predict the seeds earned its what their results tell me!
So sensai keep up your great work keeping me and the rest prepared for the upcoming game!
 
cferraro04 said:
I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6


​
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The pregame analysis is always valuable -- thanks cferraro04!.

Now, as to the last argument, the stats are a bit selective. Ashlynn Shade is shooting 36% while all the other players (starter and bench, except Fisher and Ducharme) are hitting 50% plus. Last year Shade was 48%. Of course she's in a slump. A shooting slump, anyway.
 
cferraro04 said:
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Hard to believe that with this game, we are looking at the first third of the regular season and the first quarter of the entire season, including the postseason. The first thing that comes to mind when I think of this game is Juju Watson and how different this game would be if she were playing. The second thing I think of is a 4-guard lineup, albeit some pretty big guards, and the difficulties that that presents. Then the third thing I think of is Geno may be in a position where he has no choice but to tinker with the starting lineup.

USC will be playing at home, and they should be starting the following players: Vivian Iwachukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward; Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard; Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard; Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Malia Samuels, 5'6" - Senior Guard. As you may see, there are some height advantages and some possible matchup problems for UConn. This leads me to think that Geno may tinker with the starting line-up...he may move Ashlynn to coming off the bench and use Blanca in the starting lineup. This will give him the benefit of more height in the starting five. On the other hand, Geno is a creature of habit in that he likes to stick with his starting five. So, in this analysis, I will stick with the five he has been using but with the caveat that we may see Blanca brought in earlier than usual.

UConn will face a nationally ranked opponent (#16) in this one. USC has dropped two games so far this season. They lost to South Carolina early in the season by 17 and to Notre Dame by 2. In both losses, Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring. I am quite sure that this fact isn't lost on Geno and his staff. USC is currently ranked 10th in RPI and 15th in SoS. UConn is ranked 3rd in RPI and 18th in SoS. UConn is 1st in the NET ratings while USC is 20th. No matter what marker you use to rank these teams, the result is that we should see a pretty good game, and it should be a good test for UConn.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward - Vivian started in 7 of 9 games. She averages 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. She is currently USC's most productive big. Serah is averaging 7.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 block per game. This is a good opportunity for Serah to have a good game in the paint.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard - This should be an interesting matchup. Jazzy, a big guard, has been USC's most productive player, and when Juju comes back, these two are going to wreak havoc on their opponents. However, USC seems to go as Jazzy goes. If Jazzy has an off-scoring day, USC usually loses. So, Sarah's defense in this game is crucial. Hopefully, she will not pick up fouls and have to go to the bench. Jazzy averages 16.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 1.56 three-pointers per game. Her steals and 2.3 blocks belie her quick hands on defense. Sarah Strong averages 17.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 3.4 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. Sarah hits 1.1 three-pointers per game. This really should be a great match-up and should provide some exciting moments in this game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard - Here we have another big guard, which is why I think we will see Blanca early and Azzi will switch over to guard Kara Dunn as Ashlynn goes to the bench. However, we will analyze this match-up with Azzi vs Kennedy. Kennedy averages 10.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Azzi is averaging 18.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. Azzi hits 3.44 three-pointers per game while shooting an incredible .534 on three-point attempts. This is a good match-up, and Kennedy's size could cause Azzi some problems, which bringing in Blanca and moving Azzi over to Kara would fix. Regardless of the match-up issues that Kennedy may present to Azzi, I still think Azzi will prevail in this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Senior Guard - We may see an early substitution with Blanca coming into the game and Ashlynn going to the bench, which would move Azzi Fudd over to defending Kara. We don't know what adjustments Geno may have in mind. However, in this match-up, Kara averages 11.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.6 steals, and averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and hits on 1.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - USC

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Malia Samuels, 5'6" Junior Guard - This will be a match-up between two fast guards and should be interesting. Malia averages 3.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. KK is averaging 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

USC brings 31 points and 19 rebounds off the bench, while UConn brings 36 points and 15.6 rebounds off the bench
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played in CA and is a home game for USC. A long lay-off for UConn, almost a week, could see some players working off some rust. Both teams have talent and experience at the guard position. UConn enjoys a height advantage in the post.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

USC has a veteran coaching staff with Lindsey Gottlieb as the head coach. Lindsey has faced UConn before she knows what to expect; she has former UConn starter Willnett Crockett on her staff. Gottlieb has Beth Burns as her Associate Coach, who was the Defensive Special Assistant Coach for Louisville and helped bring them to the final four two times and two times to the elite eight. UCONN's coaching staff speaks for itself. 12 national titles and forever final four appearances, the most tenured Associate Coach in women's basketball in Coach Dailey, two former coaches in Jamelle Elliot and Tonya Cardoza. You throw in Morgan Valley and you have what is probably the best coaching staff in women's college basketball. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 85
USC - 62
MOV - 23
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Kara Dunn does as well as she does when Ashlynn Shade isn't guarding her. Advantage: UConn.
 
cferraro04 said:
Maybe you should rethink this comment, as I only endeavor to present fair analysis. If I am biased, it is pro-UConn; sometimes it is difficult to take off my blue colored glasses. In this case, as in many of the other cases where I have Ashlynn losing the match-up it is because there is more than one metric that works against Ashlynn in the match-up. In this one, Ashlynn starts with a 3-inch deficit in height. The game statistics are as follows: Kara averages 11.4 points, Ashlynn 7.6 points (check for Kara) Kara 5.4 rebounds, Ashlynn 3.2 rebounds (check for Kara); Kara 1.3 assists, Ashlynn 2.6 assists (check for Ashlynn); Kara 1.6 steals, Ashlynn 1.6 steals (in this case we have a push) and Kara averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. (a very slight check for Kara). So you can see the conclusion was based on more than one matrix. Ashlynn's defensive stats do not differentiate themselves from Kara's; therefore, a non-factor in this analysis. For the record, Ashlynn is one of my favorite players, gives 100 percent all the time. She is sometimes in match-ups that don't favor her in a head-to-head comparison.
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Guess we'll see...
 
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Serah and Vivian. Don't know how you can rate one higher than the other. Serah's stats are mainly from games where she was guarded by a 3+ inches shorter player. Virtually all shots from under basket. Even against these shorter players, Serah got pushed around and did not have strong rebounding games. While I expect Serah to get better throughout the year, her start has been bumpy.
 
trisailin said:
The shortcoming of any "one on one" analysis is that basketball is a team game. If you look at the player combinations listed after each game show repeatedly the same thing. Ash is a vital part to the most effective combination. The starting 5 is the most effective group. Any player change from that group results in a reduction.

Charlies analysis good and helpful. I appreciate it.
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I was going to say the same thing. The problem is it's not 5 1-on-1 games, it's 1 5-on-5 game. There is no way to quantify this. I don't know of any solution. The analysis is about as good as it could be.
 
cferraro04 said:
I have said it numerous times on this board...I like Ashlynn Shade; she is one of my favorite players. I like her tenacity, her energy, and her never-say-die attitude. The way she and KK, as freshmen, stepped up when we got hit with the injury bug was epic. When doing a statistical analysis, one has to go with quantitative results. Ashlynn's statistics are what they are. It means that in many cases, the person she is matched up with has better quantitative results. I can never know for sure if a player from UConn is going to be matched up with a specific player for the opposing team. So, to come up with probable match-ups, I go with what position they play and what their size (Height). I don't always get the match-ups just right...as sometimes, instead of Sarah Strong getting forward A...the opposing coach goes with someone different, Forward B, for example, or G/F. Also, a coach may decide to go with a zone in order to force UConn into shooting from the outside. I have found that these nuances don't really make that much of a difference in the overall scheme of the game. The reason is that once you know who the starters are, who plays most of the minutes, and you can see what contributions they make on average to the team's overall performance over a sufficient quantity of games, then as long as you match the likely starters with their comparable counterpart you are accounting for the majority of minutes played in a game (5 X 40 = 200). Players are sometimes above or below their averages, but the overall team, for the most part, performs fairly consistently.

If Ashlynn, for example, is averaging 7.6 points per game and she plays above her average and her opponent plays below their average, then there is a good chance that I will get that positional match-up wrong. However, the likelihood of another player in the starting line-up playing below their average is pretty high...so, one players results can be counter-balanced by another player's results and the overall team performance stays pretty consistent. This is particularly evident in a team like UConn, which is likely to only face 4-5 teams that will actually give them a run. Technically, the margin of error is minimized in a player-by-player match-up scenario. You get one wrong by underestimating their performance, and you may get another match-up wrong by overestimating their performance. The intangibles of a game simply distribute the total average points scored by the starting five to each player based on the circumstances on the floor, which can vary somewhat from game to game.

That is why if I assign an advantage to Ashlynn's opponent, it isn't personal; it's statistical. It's not about whether or not I like Ashlynn. Ashlynn's on-paper statistics are not extraordinary, nor are they that different from her statistics from the 2024-25 season. Therefore, it happens often enough that her statistics on paper are not as good as the opponent she is matched up with. In the full scheme of the game, other players like Fudd and Strong are far superior to the opponent they are matched up with, so it all comes out in the wash.

To those who think that Ashlynn is in a slump, I think you will find the following statistics interesting.


................................Minutes..........................................Points..............Rebounds................Assists............Steals.............Blocks..........Turnovers
2024-25...................22.3................................................7.7.........................2.7............................1.3...................1.4....................0.2...................1.6
2025-26...................22.9................................................7.6.........................3.2............................2.6...................1.6.....................0.0...................1.6


​
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Thank You, Sensei! I love your insights!!!! Go Huskies! Z
 
Thanks, sensei for the analysis that always starts the dialogue!

My thoughts on both sides of the ball:

When the Huskies are on defense, I expect them to hold the Trojans to under 30 for the first half. I believe they will accomplish this by mixing up the defensive schemes like they have done so far this season, trying to keep the Trojans off-balance by showing them small ball looks and full court pressure before ultimately switching to a softer zone when the end of the bench comes in. I agree with several posters who believe Jazzy will get several people covering her (primarily Ash, Azzi, and Blanca), whereas KK and K9 will be focused on shutting down Samuels and Jones. In the meanwhile, I expect Serah, Jana and Sarah to effectively neutralize the USC bigs.

Sounds like a dominant defensive effort, correct? Maybe, maybe not. I think we will see USC try a lot of high screens in order to free up 3 point shots and create driving lanes to the basket. Therefore, the Huskies will have to be communicating very well in order to switch off on screens and to support on drives/slashes to the basket. If they are not communicating well and moving their feet constantly (like the UConn teams of 20-30 years ago discussed on other threads), the huge defensive advantage goes away. In that event, this game becomes (and stays) a LOT closer than it should. Taking that defensive imperatives lapse one step further, if USC gets hot from three, or the refs call a game tight, then we could easily see a single digit score differential the entire game.

Offensively, I expect the Huskies to score north of 80 unless everybody comes out cold from behind the arc like we witnessed in the 3rd quarter during the Michigan game. UConn has just too many offensive weapons for USC. Furthermore, the Huskies inside game on offense has improved dramatically from where it was last year, whereas the Trojan inside game on defense is weaker.

Regardless of which officiating crew works the game, I do NOT think they will take a "let the players play" mentality for the entire game. Either they will call it tight right from the beginning, or they will switch to calling a tighter game after half-time.

I would not be surprised if the home team's style of play dictates how the refs approach the game. Sort of like what we saw a few days ago when Iowa played at Iowa State. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as it will force the Huskies to adjust accordingly, which will be useful down the road against good teams in the NCAA tourney.

IMO, if UConn simply stays with a nine person rotation, this is a 30+ point win. That said, I believe Geno will be rotating end-of-the-bench players into the game which will keep the final MOV under 30.
 
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As the game approaches, one thought -- watch out for fouls. If Sarah gets a couple in the first quarter, or even the first half, it may affect her ability to influence the outcome. Same for KK and Ashlynn. UConn is in the other guy's house, and some of those "could have gone either way" calls that UConn has benefited from (Let's face it: Sarah occasionally knocks people over and hasn't gotten called for it very much) are likely to go the other way.
 
Live Stats &1:
&1 Live Stats for yet-to-be-played games (through 12/31/2025) are available via this schedule.
  • The link is removed for played games.
  • The schedule links are useful as to when pre-published links don’t work (as the case was for MI and Utah) as the game is in-progress.
 
tomcat said:
As the game approaches, one thought -- watch out for fouls. If Sarah gets a couple in the first quarter, or even the first half, it may affect her ability to influence the outcome. Same for KK and Ashlynn. UConn is in the other guy's house, and some of those "could have gone either way" calls that UConn has benefited from (Let's face it: Sarah occasionally knocks people over and hasn't gotten called for it very much) are likely to go the other way.
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I would add: and/or people flop in the wake of her drives...
 
I agree that in this game, Shade's statistics outperformed Dunn's; however, that does not alter the fact that on paper, Dunn should have had the advantage over Shade. That is where the analysis on a player-by-player basis falls short, as team dynamics come into play. No system of analysis is perfect and infallible. However, when examining the full body of work, many of the conclusions drawn in the player-by-player analysis were ultimately confirmed. For example, starting at the top:

Serah Williams vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, even though Gottlieb threw a monkey wrench into the analysis by starting Gerda Raulusaityte, worked out as forecasted. Serah Williams had 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 21 minutes of play. The combination of Vivian and Gerda (USC's twin 6'3" towers) produced 2 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 blocks, and 1 steal in 24 minutes of play. Clearly - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Sarah Strong vs Davidson...well Gottlieb and Geno threw us a curve on that one too...Azzi played Davidson for most of the game, and she did a great job holding Davidson to single-digit scoring until there were only 3 minutes left in the game. I felt holding Jazzy to single-digit scoring was one of the keys to winning the game, as in USC's two losses this season, Jazzy was held to single-digit scoring. But the question is, how did Strong fare in her match-up with Kennedy Smith? Keeping in mind, Sarah did not have a stellar game; in fact, her game was subpar. Yet, she had 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, and she hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-4 in 31 minutes of play. Kennedy, who had a better-than-average game, had 16 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and hit 1 three-pointer, going 1-6 in 36 minutes of play. This match-up ended up being a push statistically. ADVANTAGE - EVEN. When you factor in impact on the game, one could argue that Sarah would have a slight advantage UConn in this game.

Azzi Fudd vs Kennedy Smith, as discussed above, Azzi did not match up with Kennedy; she instead went head-to-head with Jazzy. Luckily, the results were as forecasted, and Azzi dominated at that position and, in my opinion, was the key to this victory. Azzi had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She was all over Jazzy on defense for the entire game. Jazzy had 10 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 4 blocks, and hit on 2 of 3 three-pointers in 37 minutes of play. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlyn Shade vs Kara Dunn, Ashlynn had one of her best games offensively this year while having her usual good game defensively. She had 15 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and hit on 3 of 6 three-pointers in 29 minutes of play. She also only had one turnover. Kara Dunn had a tough day playing below her seasonal statistics, and yes, as many here mentioned in the comments on this thread, much of it had to do with Ashlynn's defense on her. Kara had 5 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, and shot 1-3 three-pointers. She also only had one turnover in 33 minutes of play...clearly in this game it was.... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold vs Malia Samuels, KK was played by committee in this game. Malia had her for 17 minutes, and Londynn Jones had her for 23 minutes. KK had 7 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. The combination of Malia and Londynn had 16 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 6 turnovers in 40 minutes of play. While KK played tremendous defense offensively, it was... ADVANTAGE - USC

So, while I had it wrong with the advantage going to USC in the Shade match-up, it was offset by my also having it wrong with the advantage going to KK in her match-up. And, I would be remiss if I didn't bring up that the anticipated big advantage for UConn in the Sarah Strong match-up did not come to fruition, but I would attribute that to an anomaly, and if this game were played ten times, 9 out of ten times, Sarah would hold the advantage over Kennedy Smith. I would suggest that Blanca's dominant performance was as forecasted, and it impacted the game, giving UConn the momentum when she came into the game.

I also kind of felt it for Kaliegh Heckel...it was very difficult for her going up against her former team...the audience, I thought, overall were kind to her...I expected worse.

As far as the bench was concerned, as forecasted...ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Once again, it all comes out in the wash, and the overall player-by-player match-up analysis proves to be useful.
 
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