Game Analysis - Game 10 - UConn vs USC

[cferraro04]

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Hard to believe that with this game, we are looking at the first third of the regular season and the first quarter of the entire season, including the postseason. The first thing that comes to mind when I think of this game is Juju Watson and how different this game would be if she were playing. The second thing I think of is a 4-guard lineup, albeit some pretty big guards, and the difficulties that that presents. Then the third thing I think of is Geno may be in a position where he has no choice but to tinker with the starting lineup.

USC will be playing at home, and they should be starting the following players: Vivian Iwachukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward; Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard; Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard; Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Malia Samuels, 5'6" - Senior Guard. As you may see, there are some height advantages and some possible matchup problems for UConn. This leads me to think that Geno may tinker with the starting line-up...he may move Ashlynn to coming off the bench and use Blanca in the starting lineup. This will give him the benefit of more height in the starting five. On the other hand, Geno is a creature of habit in that he likes to stick with his starting five. So, in this analysis, I will stick with the five he has been using but with the caveat that we may see Blanca brought in earlier than usual.

UConn will face a nationally ranked opponent (#16) in this one. USC has dropped two games so far this season. They lost to South Carolina early in the season by 17 and to Notre Dame by 2. In both losses, Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring. I am quite sure that this fact isn't lost on Geno and his staff. USC is currently ranked 10th in RPI and 15th in SoS. UConn is ranked 3rd in RPI and 18th in SoS. UConn is 1st in the NET ratings while USC is 20th. No matter what marker you use to rank these teams, the result is that we should see a pretty good game, and it should be a good test for UConn.

PLAYER MATCHUPS:

Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Vivian Iwuchukwu, 6'3" - Sophomore Forward - Vivian started in 7 of 9 games. She averages 5.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1 assist per game. She is currently USC's most productive big. Serah is averaging 7.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 block per game. This is a good opportunity for Serah to have a good game in the paint.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Serah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Jazzy Davidson, 6'1" - Freshman Guard - This should be an interesting matchup. Jazzy, a big guard, has been USC's most productive player, and when Juju comes back, these two are going to wreak havoc on their opponents. However, USC seems to go as Jazzy goes. If Jazzy has an off-scoring day, USC usually loses. So, Sarah's defense in this game is crucial. Hopefully, she will not pick up fouls and have to go to the bench. Jazzy averages 16.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 1.56 three-pointers per game. Her steals and 2.3 blocks belie her quick hands on defense. Sarah Strong averages 17.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 3.4 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. Sarah hits 1.1 three-pointers per game. This really should be a great match-up and should provide some exciting moments in this game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Azzi Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Kennedy Smith, 6'1" - Sophomore Guard - Here we have another big guard, which is why I think we will see Blanca early and Azzi will switch over to guard Kara Dunn as Ashlynn goes to the bench. However, we will analyze this match-up with Azzi vs Kennedy. Kennedy averages 10.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Azzi is averaging 18.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. Azzi hits 3.44 three-pointers per game while shooting an incredible .534 on three-point attempts. This is a good match-up, and Kennedy's size could cause Azzi some problems, which bringing in Blanca and moving Azzi over to Kara would fix. Regardless of the match-up issues that Kennedy may present to Azzi, I still think Azzi will prevail in this match-up. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Kara Dunn, 5'11" - Senior Guard - We may see an early substitution with Blanca coming into the game and Ashlynn going to the bench, which would move Azzi Fudd over to defending Kara. We don't know what adjustments Geno may have in mind. However, in this match-up, Kara averages 11.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.6 steals, and averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 7.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and hits on 1.3 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - USC

KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Malia Samuels, 5'6" Junior Guard - This will be a match-up between two fast guards and should be interesting. Malia averages 3.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. KK is averaging 7.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.6 steals per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH:

USC brings 31 points and 19 rebounds off the bench, while UConn brings 36 points and 15.6 rebounds off the bench
SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES:

This game is being played in CA and is a home game for USC. A long lay-off for UConn, almost a week, could see some players working off some rust. Both teams have talent and experience at the guard position. UConn enjoys a height advantage in the post.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING:

USC has a veteran coaching staff with Lindsey Gottlieb as the head coach. Lindsey has faced UConn before she knows what to expect; she has former UConn starter Willnett Crockett on her staff. Gottlieb has Beth Burns as her Associate Coach, who was the Defensive Special Assistant Coach for Louisville and helped bring them to the final four two times and two times to the elite eight. UCONN's coaching staff speaks for itself. 12 national titles and forever final four appearances, the most tenured Associate Coach in women's basketball in Coach Dailey, two former coaches in Jamelle Elliot and Tonya Cardoza. You throw in Morgan Valley and you have what is probably the best coaching staff in women's college basketball. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE:

UCONN - 85
USC - 62
MOV - 23

 

[ERWUC65]

One comment stands out: 'Jazzy Davidson was held to single-digit scoring'. I expect this to be the focus of the team and coaching staff and the key to an important victory against a ranked opponent.

 

[Next 12]

We are UCONN 25/26 marching on to NO.13. ANYONE in our way is going DOWN. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!

 

[sno-cat]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

 

[Huskee11]

Great analysis as always, much appreciated!

However, I doubt that USC will score 67 points. UConn's defense is ferocious. USC scored 59 against Washington (at home, including a four point first quarter), 59 against Notre Dame, and 52 against South Carolina.

Davidson is a great player, but she is a Freshman and she has never seen what she will see on Saturday. If she gets her average, it will take her a lot of shots to do so.

And USC's shooting percentages as a team are 42% overall, 31% from three, and 66% from the line. Very unlikely they will reach those unimpressive numbers against UConn.

 

[Kat]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

Agree completely. Ashlynn is the best defensive player on this team. She always manages to either block a passing lane, tip a pass, rebound, or help double-up on a ball-handler. The person she's guarding never has an easy or wide-open shot.

 

[Centerstream]

If I remember correctly from last season, Kennedy Smith is a pretty good defensive player. If so, Azzi will have to work to get her shot just as Paige had to do in the Elite Eight game.
Also, we had better have a really good lead in the 4th quarter because we know Coach Gottlieb is a proponent of having opponents score from the FT line instead of the floor in the 4th quarter. It almost worked in the Elite Eight game, we shot 9 of our 17 FTs in the 4th quarter.

 

[Boreifs]

Agree completely. Ashlynn is the best defensive player on this team. She always manages to either block a passing lane, tip a pass, rebound, or help double-up on a ball-handler. The person she's guarding never has an easy or wide-open shot.

There is so much more to analysis than just comparing individual stats. Team defense for starters.

 

[darkstar1]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

Absolutely agree. Actually, I’d give the advantage to any of KK, Ash, K9 or Blanca over any of their guards. We lose nothing when these 4 are interchanged in the lineup. Indeed I think the team has looked the best when Blanca and Kayleigh are in with Sarah, Azzi and Ash. Small lineup but play so well together.

 

[EricLA]

Good analysis! I think the MOV sounds about right to me. I was thinking a 20 point win. But honestly, this team is very very good, and if we are hitting on most (not all) cylinders, it could be ugly for USC.

I don't see why, though, Geno would tinker with the starters. It's not like Ash is giving up 5" and he needs height. Ash is a warrior and a total blue collar dog with a bone type of player. She will be intense every second she's out there. Her defense is top notch, and anything we get from her on offense is a bonus. I see her averaging 8 or so PPG the rest of the season with some big games and some 2 point output games.

I don't disagree that Blanca is going to be sensational, but to start her over Ash seems wrong at this time. Next year, with Azzi and Serah gone, I expect Blanca to be a starter while Jana battles Olivia for the 5 spot, but for this year, I think these starters take us all the way to April...

 

[Cuango]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

A bit unfair! When doing an analysis of a game you are basing that analysis largely on the statistical outputs of the various players. It would not be much of an analysis if the author simply said, “well, so and so averages this many points less than the opponent, less rebounds, less assists and less steals but “I’ve got a good feeling that this lesser player stat wise is going to have a good game so…let’s ignore the stats!” I’m not sure how valid that analysis would be.

 

[darkstar1]

A bit unfair! When doing an analysis of a game you are basing that analysis largely on the statistical outputs of the various players. It would not be much of an analysis if the author simply said, “well, so and so averages this many points less than the opponent, less rebounds, less assists and less steals but “I’ve got a good feeling that this lesser player stat wise is going to have a good game so…let’s ignore the stats!” I’m not sure how valid that analysis would be.

One way to look it may be that if a player, like Ash, who’s defense is stellar and that is what makes her so valuable on a team with many offensive minded players, holds her opponent(s) to less than normal production while carrying her own weight, then she has won the match up. In other words Ash (or Haeckel or KK) doing their normal job and causing the opposing player to perform below normal.

 

[EricLA]

A bit unfair! When doing an analysis of a game you are basing that analysis largely on the statistical outputs of the various players. It would not be much of an analysis if the author simply said, “well, so and so averages this many points less than the opponent, less rebounds, less assists and less steals but “I’ve got a good feeling that this lesser player stat wise is going to have a good game so…let’s ignore the stats!” I’m not sure how valid that analysis would be.

I'm not sure if Charlie "always downplays" Ash's defense - I've not read all of his analyses. But I don't disagree with sno-cat that to give an advantage to the other team when comparing Ash without taking her defense into account isn't fair to her.

Having said that, it's not like Charlie has seen all of our opponents play so it's gotta be tough to analyze any of the defensive prowess UConn players have. It's a thankless job that he does, for sure, but I'm grateful as it gives a good starting point to know what is likely coming!

 

[Big Fan]

How many minutes a game does Shade play versus Dunn? Points scored etc not a fair comparison

 

[Basingstoke]

Having watched USC's game vs Washington, I was struck by 2 things.
Even with having faced Washington, USC has never experienced anything defensively like what they will face on Saturday.
I think that Jazzy is a great player (& more of a team-first player than Juju), but I would not overdo trying to stop her. I think you try to contain her from going full nova while stopping the rest of the team from hurting us (IMO they are not dangerous unless we throw too many resources at Jazzy).
One other thing to keep in mind is that, although they now have Jazzy, they no longer have Iriafen or Marshall (who had the game of her life vs us in the tournament).

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis again, Sensei! So much to think about here. And this may be the most interesting game of the preseason.

I think there may be an offense/defense distinction that has to be made with Jazzy and Kennedy. It’s possible Lindsay will want Kennedy to guard Azzi most of the time, as you have it here. Last season, especially in March, she tasked Kennedy with face guarding Paige to some good effect.

The problem with this assignment is that it leaves Jazzy guarding Sarah which seems to be a severe mismatch in terms of strength. This makes me wonder if Lindsay might have Kennedy guard Sarah as much as possible, since she is stronger than Jazzy. This would leave Jazzy to guard Azzi, which isn’t such a mismatch. I also thinks it’s likely that Azzi will end up defending Jazzy at least some of the time. Also, Kennedy seems more like a small forward in terms of her skills.

Of course, I have a feeling — as you do too — that Blanca will get significant minutes guarding Jazzy, thus freeing up Azzi to help out on Kara. That matchup seems more in UConn’s favor. The great thing about Blanca is that she has guard quickness in a big body. Jazzy probably can’t handle her, which leaves Kennedy stuck with the assignment. In the small lineup this means Vivian will have to guard Sarah which seems like another mismatch in UConn’s favor.

As for Ash, she gives up a few inches to either Jazzy or Kennedy. But she gives up nothing in intensity to either of them, and may have a lot more ferocity than Jazzy. I think she’ll get her minutes, if only because Lindsay will look to have someone cheat to help defend either Sarah or Azzi. If it’s Ash they cheat off, Ash needs to burn them for it.

As for KK vs Malia, this is definitely speed on speed. I thought Malia was severely underutilized last season — yet another Juju side effect — and she may prove a handful for KK alone. But I have a feeling Kayleigh will see some important minutes if only to keep the pressure on Malia. If Lindsay risks taking her out, Allie is waiting in the wings.

When I look at USC’s lineup, I don’t see four guards. I see two guards and two small forwards. But Geno’s lineup features four guards and three small forwards. If Jazzy gets in foul trouble and Malia tires out, this will be a very press-vulnerable team.

 

[bkart1978]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

I was going to post the same complaint when Ashlyn got only "slight advantage UCONN" against DePaul; I chalked it up to just something done to spice up the discourse against top-to-bottom overmatched teams. Just a shame that Ash always seems to be the victim of that generous-to-the-opposition analysis.

(And for what it's worth, Ashlyn has outscored both of her USF and DePaul counterparts, and even that is despite only scoring 3 points against DePaul. Previous analyses had her as worse than USF's Ingram and slightly better than DePaul's Nelson).

 

[rugbymate]

when comparing Ash to others through statistics there is always a glaring omission. It’s called basketball IQ. She wins that part of the match up every time.

 

[cferraro04]

No matter who we play you always seem to downplay Ashlynn Shade's role. You constantly point out that the opposing team players scores more points per game then Ash. Do you not count her great defense, aggressiveness and desire to win? Perhaps you don't notice your own bias coming through against Ash.

Maybe you should rethink this comment, as I only endeavor to present fair analysis. If I am biased, it is pro-UConn; sometimes it is difficult to take off my blue colored glasses. In this case, as in many of the other cases where I have Ashlynn losing the match-up it is because there is more than one metric that works against Ashlynn in the match-up. In this one, Ashlynn starts with a 3-inch deficit in height. The game statistics are as follows: Kara averages 11.4 points, Ashlynn 7.6 points (check for Kara) Kara 5.4 rebounds, Ashlynn 3.2 rebounds (check for Kara); Kara 1.3 assists, Ashlynn 2.6 assists (check for Ashlynn); Kara 1.6 steals, Ashlynn 1.6 steals (in this case we have a push) and Kara averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. (a very slight check for Kara). So you can see the conclusion was based on more than one matrix. Ashlynn's defensive stats do not differentiate themselves from Kara's; therefore, a non-factor in this analysis. For the record, Ashlynn is one of my favorite players, gives 100 percent all the time. She is sometimes in match-ups that don't favor her in a head-to-head comparison.

 

[kidfrom360]

I'll be at this game, which I am pumped about. Calling a blowout here. If we shut down Jazzy, they have no other scorers. Nobody to guard Sarah, Sarah, Blanca, Azzi. This is going to be a clinic.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Thanks for your work!

 

[ERWUC65]

Maybe you should rethink this comment, as I only endeavor to present fair analysis. If I am biased, it is pro-UConn; sometimes it is difficult to take off my blue colored glasses. In this case, as in many of the other cases where I have Ashlynn losing the match-up it is because there is more than one metric that works against Ashlynn in the match-up. In this one, Ashlynn starts with a 3-inch deficit in height. The game statistics are as follows: Kara averages 11.4 points, Ashlynn 7.6 points (check for Kara) Kara 5.4 rebounds, Ashlynn 3.2 rebounds (check for Kara); Kara 1.3 assists, Ashlynn 2.6 assists (check for Ashlynn); Kara 1.6 steals, Ashlynn 1.6 steals (in this case we have a push) and Kara averages 1.44 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. (a very slight check for Kara). So you can see the conclusion was based on more than one matrix. Ashlynn's defensive stats do not differentiate themselves from Kara's; therefore, a non-factor in this analysis. For the record, Ashlynn is one of my favorite players, gives 100 percent all the time. She is sometimes in match-ups that don't favor her in a head-to-head comparison.

We are all waiting for Ash to have a breakout game. I do not think she has lost anything, just adjusting to starting, new offensive responsibilities, now playing without Paige who often got all the attention and as such opened up the floor for her teammates. Ash does not have the benefit of a quick catch and release like Azzi and requires more time to set and shoot. Opponents know this and are concentrating on more closely guarding her, unlike last year.

 

[Majic Hands]

By the numbers I can see the advantage to whoever’s matched up against Ash. . . However, I think there must be a reason that she gets a lot of minutes.

I was thinking that Geno said she has to be in there for the team to Flo (my word) or perhaps I’m just remembering his multiple comments about Nika.

PS tuned in to Croatia vs Greece replay on you tube. When Nika came in she drove the lane for 2. Next possession she brought the ball up, they backed off and she knocked down a 3. Watched a few more minutes but Croatia isn’t enough to grab my attention regardless how much a fan I was for Nika.

 

[Dogstar]

Agree completely. Ashlynn is the best defensive player on this team. She always manages to either block a passing lane, tip a pass, rebound, or help double-up on a ball-handler. The person she's guarding never has an easy or wide-open shot.

WOW!...better thn Sarah, Kk, or KP? Thts a pretty bold statement. I' definitely disagree with this based on my eyes and the stats.

 

[CL82]

We are UCONN 25/26 marching on to NO.13. ANYONE in our way is going DOWN. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!

Sigh...