cferraro04
Sensei
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 2,276
- Reaction Score
- 11,444
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Well, finally, we are here at the start of a new season. How could you not be excited about this group? Yes, we lost one of UConn's best players in its storied history. However, between the returning players who missed so many games due to injury, our returning stars, and the newbies, there is surely a lot to be excited about. It is always difficult to do game analysis early in the season, as it is difficult to know with certainty who will be starting and who will be getting most of the minutes. The transfer wire further complicates early-season analyses. I will try my best to guess who will start for each team. Additionally, my style of analysis is based on head-to-head competition by position. Every year, someone objects to this method, often with valid reasons; however, the methodology does spark conversation, and at the end of the day, it has been relatively accurate. Many of the early-season errors are usually corrected by the time we enter December games. So, warts and all, we will dive right into it.
Tim Walz hit the transfer portal hard, but I believe the starters for the Louisville Cardinals will be Grace Mbugua, 6'4" Freshman Forward, St. Joseph Transfer, Laura Zieglar, 6'2" Sr. Forward, Arizona Transfer, Skylar Jones, 6'0" Junior Guard/Forward, Freshman Phenom, Peyton Bradley, 5'8" Freshman Guard, and Returning Guard, Tajianna Roberts, 5'10" Sophomore Guard. If this turns out not to be his starters for this game, I believe it will eventually be Walz's starting line-up. On paper, this seems to be his best line-up, and since this is the first game, there is no way to know for certain. I will do the match-ups using this starting line-up.
PLAYER ANALYSIS:
Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Grace Mbugua, 6'4 - Freshman Forward - This will be Serah's first official game with UConn. We already know that she can play quality starter minutes from her past play at Wisconsin. She is working hard to pick up the CT system, and there is no better way to do that than to log some gametime minutes. Geno will need her to be on her A game later on in the season...So, I expect him to start her. At Wisconsin, Serah put up great numbers, averaging 19.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Louisville: In high school, Grace was a power to be reckoned with. She averaged 22.3 points, 2,7 rebounds, 3 steals, and even hit 1 three-pointer per game. The big question here is, will it translate to the college game? I think Grace has a chance to develop into a great player at the college level. However, I believe this game is too early in the learning curve. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Laura Zieglar, 6'2" - Senior Forward - Sarah has had a somewhat slow start during the pre-season exhibition games, but given the competitive spirit that we have come to know her by, I look to see her get back to her usual dominant self in this game. Sarah will be virtually unstoppable this season. She will more than likely be a first-team All-American at the end of the season. I look for her to pick up right where she left off last season and begin to improve on those numbers. Sarah was a stat stuffer last season, and she averaged 16.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.55 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.65 blocks per game while also averaging 1.5 three-pointers per game. Laura transferred from St. Joseph's, and it appears that Walz got a good one. At St. Joes, Laura averaged 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, .74 steals, and .9 blocks per game. She can step out and hit the three, as she also averaged 1.53 three-pointers per game. This could be a fun match-up to see, but I believe at the end of the day, Ms. Strong will prove to be too much for Ms.Zieglar. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Azzy Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Peyton Bradley, 5'9" Freshman Guard - Azzy Fudd came back because so far her UConn experience has not had the opportunity to showcase her talents for an entire season. I expect that her swan song final year is going to be record-breaking. In this match-up, she will be playing against a freshman phenom. Peyton may not yet be ready to play against an upperclassman like Azzi, but on the other hand, you never know. She was a tremendous high school player; her numbers were off the charts good. Azzi's numbers last year were slightly skewed lower as she needed to work herself back into shape. I expect them to be much higher this year. Azzi finished the year at 13.6 points, 2 rebounds, 1.79 assists, and 1.35 steals per game. She also shot the 3-ball at 43.6 percent and averaged 2.32 three-pointers per game. Again, I expect these numbers will improve this season, probably starting with this game. Peyton was truly a remarkable high school player. Enough can't be said about this kid. She averaged 28.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.6 steals, and .5 blocks per game. She knocked down an incredible 3.8 three-pointers per game. If Peyton can raise her game to the college level, she is going to be a handful on the offensive end of the court. I believe it is too early for Peyton, but it is sure going to be fun watching this kid grow.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Skylar Jones, 6'0" Junior Guard/Forward - Ashlynn is probably the hardest working Husky. Her minutes were somewhat down last year as she transitioned from starter minutes to coming off the bench. As a result, her stats were somewhat compressed when compared to her freshman year. Ashlynn averaged 7.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.33 assists, 1.44 steals, and was able to hit 1.33 three-pointers in 22 minutes of playing time per game. Skylar transferred from Arizona, where she averaged 10.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in her Sophomore outing. This could be a great match-up, and it is hard to say that one of these players might outplay the other. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Tajianna Roberts, 5'10" Sophomore Guard. KK is going to have to do a better job this year in scoring the basketball. Her defense is All-Conference caliber, and you can be sure that she is every guard's nightmare. If KK can get her offensive game to come around, she will be hard to keep off the court. She also had to play fewer minutes last year than she did during her freshman year. A lot of players returned to the line-up who were on the IR list. KK averaged 5.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.55 steals while playing 21 minutes per game. Tajianna is one of the few returning players to Tim Walz's team who will see significant minutes. Tajianna averaged 12.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in her freshman outing with the team. She was also able to knock down 1.6 threes per game. I don't think that Tajianna has had to play against someone like KK very often. KK is capable of holding Tajianna below her averages so it will be interesting to see how Tajianna handles the pressure. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Bench:
UConn's bench this year is going to be its strength. There is just so, so much talent on UConn's bench. I expect the UConn bench will far outplay the Louisville bench. Blanca, Ice, Caroline, Ayanna, Jana, and Allie, that is an awful lot of firepower. Walz will not be able to match UConn's bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Intangibles:
The game is being played at a neutral site... there's no advantage to either team. Height, talent, experience, and UConn's fan base will travel, and it will surely make its presence known. Those are the intangibles that will tilt the game towards UConn.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Coaching:
Tim and his staff do an excellent job year in and year out. However, Geno has 12 titles and Louisville doesn't. Geno's coaching staff is probably the best in the country. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Score:
UConn will start its engines early, it will keep on revving it up, and there won't be much of a letdown as Geno brings in the bench. I believe this one will be a high-scoring event for UConn
UCONN - 92
LOUISVILLE - 64
Well, finally, we are here at the start of a new season. How could you not be excited about this group? Yes, we lost one of UConn's best players in its storied history. However, between the returning players who missed so many games due to injury, our returning stars, and the newbies, there is surely a lot to be excited about. It is always difficult to do game analysis early in the season, as it is difficult to know with certainty who will be starting and who will be getting most of the minutes. The transfer wire further complicates early-season analyses. I will try my best to guess who will start for each team. Additionally, my style of analysis is based on head-to-head competition by position. Every year, someone objects to this method, often with valid reasons; however, the methodology does spark conversation, and at the end of the day, it has been relatively accurate. Many of the early-season errors are usually corrected by the time we enter December games. So, warts and all, we will dive right into it.
Tim Walz hit the transfer portal hard, but I believe the starters for the Louisville Cardinals will be Grace Mbugua, 6'4" Freshman Forward, St. Joseph Transfer, Laura Zieglar, 6'2" Sr. Forward, Arizona Transfer, Skylar Jones, 6'0" Junior Guard/Forward, Freshman Phenom, Peyton Bradley, 5'8" Freshman Guard, and Returning Guard, Tajianna Roberts, 5'10" Sophomore Guard. If this turns out not to be his starters for this game, I believe it will eventually be Walz's starting line-up. On paper, this seems to be his best line-up, and since this is the first game, there is no way to know for certain. I will do the match-ups using this starting line-up.
PLAYER ANALYSIS:
Serah Williams, 6'4" - Senior Forward vs Grace Mbugua, 6'4 - Freshman Forward - This will be Serah's first official game with UConn. We already know that she can play quality starter minutes from her past play at Wisconsin. She is working hard to pick up the CT system, and there is no better way to do that than to log some gametime minutes. Geno will need her to be on her A game later on in the season...So, I expect him to start her. At Wisconsin, Serah put up great numbers, averaging 19.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Louisville: In high school, Grace was a power to be reckoned with. She averaged 22.3 points, 2,7 rebounds, 3 steals, and even hit 1 three-pointer per game. The big question here is, will it translate to the college game? I think Grace has a chance to develop into a great player at the college level. However, I believe this game is too early in the learning curve. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Sarah Strong, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward vs Laura Zieglar, 6'2" - Senior Forward - Sarah has had a somewhat slow start during the pre-season exhibition games, but given the competitive spirit that we have come to know her by, I look to see her get back to her usual dominant self in this game. Sarah will be virtually unstoppable this season. She will more than likely be a first-team All-American at the end of the season. I look for her to pick up right where she left off last season and begin to improve on those numbers. Sarah was a stat stuffer last season, and she averaged 16.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.55 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.65 blocks per game while also averaging 1.5 three-pointers per game. Laura transferred from St. Joseph's, and it appears that Walz got a good one. At St. Joes, Laura averaged 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, .74 steals, and .9 blocks per game. She can step out and hit the three, as she also averaged 1.53 three-pointers per game. This could be a fun match-up to see, but I believe at the end of the day, Ms. Strong will prove to be too much for Ms.Zieglar. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Azzy Fudd, 5'11" - Graduate Guard vs Peyton Bradley, 5'9" Freshman Guard - Azzy Fudd came back because so far her UConn experience has not had the opportunity to showcase her talents for an entire season. I expect that her swan song final year is going to be record-breaking. In this match-up, she will be playing against a freshman phenom. Peyton may not yet be ready to play against an upperclassman like Azzi, but on the other hand, you never know. She was a tremendous high school player; her numbers were off the charts good. Azzi's numbers last year were slightly skewed lower as she needed to work herself back into shape. I expect them to be much higher this year. Azzi finished the year at 13.6 points, 2 rebounds, 1.79 assists, and 1.35 steals per game. She also shot the 3-ball at 43.6 percent and averaged 2.32 three-pointers per game. Again, I expect these numbers will improve this season, probably starting with this game. Peyton was truly a remarkable high school player. Enough can't be said about this kid. She averaged 28.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.6 steals, and .5 blocks per game. She knocked down an incredible 3.8 three-pointers per game. If Peyton can raise her game to the college level, she is going to be a handful on the offensive end of the court. I believe it is too early for Peyton, but it is sure going to be fun watching this kid grow.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" - Junior Guard vs Skylar Jones, 6'0" Junior Guard/Forward - Ashlynn is probably the hardest working Husky. Her minutes were somewhat down last year as she transitioned from starter minutes to coming off the bench. As a result, her stats were somewhat compressed when compared to her freshman year. Ashlynn averaged 7.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.33 assists, 1.44 steals, and was able to hit 1.33 three-pointers in 22 minutes of playing time per game. Skylar transferred from Arizona, where she averaged 10.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in her Sophomore outing. This could be a great match-up, and it is hard to say that one of these players might outplay the other. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
KK Arnold, 5'9" - Junior Guard vs Tajianna Roberts, 5'10" Sophomore Guard. KK is going to have to do a better job this year in scoring the basketball. Her defense is All-Conference caliber, and you can be sure that she is every guard's nightmare. If KK can get her offensive game to come around, she will be hard to keep off the court. She also had to play fewer minutes last year than she did during her freshman year. A lot of players returned to the line-up who were on the IR list. KK averaged 5.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.55 steals while playing 21 minutes per game. Tajianna is one of the few returning players to Tim Walz's team who will see significant minutes. Tajianna averaged 12.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game in her freshman outing with the team. She was also able to knock down 1.6 threes per game. I don't think that Tajianna has had to play against someone like KK very often. KK is capable of holding Tajianna below her averages so it will be interesting to see how Tajianna handles the pressure. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Bench:
UConn's bench this year is going to be its strength. There is just so, so much talent on UConn's bench. I expect the UConn bench will far outplay the Louisville bench. Blanca, Ice, Caroline, Ayanna, Jana, and Allie, that is an awful lot of firepower. Walz will not be able to match UConn's bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Intangibles:
The game is being played at a neutral site... there's no advantage to either team. Height, talent, experience, and UConn's fan base will travel, and it will surely make its presence known. Those are the intangibles that will tilt the game towards UConn.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Coaching:
Tim and his staff do an excellent job year in and year out. However, Geno has 12 titles and Louisville doesn't. Geno's coaching staff is probably the best in the country. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Score:
UConn will start its engines early, it will keep on revving it up, and there won't be much of a letdown as Geno brings in the bench. I believe this one will be a high-scoring event for UConn
UCONN - 92
LOUISVILLE - 64
