Friend of Boneyard Doug Gottlieb says KenPom is BS... | The Boneyard

Friend of Boneyard Doug Gottlieb says KenPom is BS...

Ask him to recite how many teams he was playing against were missing starters or resting guys or had weird travel stuff.

People only think of their own perspective. That kind of stuff usually balances out in the long run.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
Kenpom doesn't work anymore. Too many teams load manage their stars, or coach to the metric. Kenpom is capturing coaching styles of teams and their opponents as much as it is measuring relative quality or efficiency.
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LOL!!! Sure. SURE. I suppose this applies to ALL statistical measures, somehow. I do agree, though, that coaches are trying to score most efficiently and stop their opponents from scoring efficiently. That much is true.
 
DRBackup said:
And... ? I have no idea what point that is supposed to be making
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The OP’s point is clearly the metrics don’t show true rankings of teams as UConn has beaten two teams higher than them and since they only have 1 loss basically means the head to head is meaningless. KenPom is at a point it eliminates the things that matter, how teams perform against each other.
 
I prefer resume metrics (as does the committee).

In the average of the three metrics (KPI, SOR, WAB):

UConn is 4th (1 seed)
St. John's is 25th (7 seed)
Villanova is 31st (8 seed)
Seton Hall is 55th (OUT)

Miami (OH) is 37th (10 seed)
 
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Platt81 said:
The OP’s point is clearly the metrics don’t show true rankings of teams as UConn has beaten two teams higher than them and since they only have 1 loss basically means the head to head is meaningless. KenPom is at a point it eliminates the things that matter, how teams perform against each other.
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UConn is at #8 because they've struggled against mediocre teams like PC, G'Town, etc. Exactly as this board has observed multiple times in the post game threads. That is why they're #8 and not #1. If they had played like they did the last 2 games against those teams in January they wouldn't be #8. Precisely the exact opposite point from what Gotlieb is ranting about.

Miami(OH) is undefeated, but sits at #89 in KP. Should they be higher than everyone but Arizona ?

It is stunning to see how little people understand what it tells you. And, keep in mind, that's what they all do, if they're not a ELO style score comparison ranking like Sagarin. Sagarin stopped doing his, but I did find one out there. UConn #3, Miami(OH) #35.
 
Doug isn't wrong, its a flawed metric, especially when you have injuries etc. However, at his age he should know that making excuses doesn't go over well with the public.
 
DRBackup said:
LOL!!! This is classic. Here is old Doug talking smack about KenPom in regards to his mid major steaming pile

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What I don't like about KenPom is that I think it contributes to a lack of sportsmanship.

I remember when years ago, we or other teams up by 20-30, starters pulled at 4-5 minutes mark. Now teams leave foot on gas until the end. It is KenPom and trying to game the system.

I agree with his points in that it's imperfect for sure. I would love to see however, KenPom be analyzed over the last 10 years. How accurate has it really been. Were the sweet 16 in top 16 according to KenPom prior to start of tourrney? I don't expect it to be perfect but would love know - some analysis..
 
Kenpom isn't perfect, but it is the best predictive metric we have.

Aren't most spreads close to what KenPom says?
 
DRBackup said:
And... ? I have no idea what point that is supposed to be making

They're RATED higher. Not ranked higher
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KenPom is saying that those teams are better than UConn. They RANK them higher than UConn.

Despite the fact that when they actually played on a basketball court UConn proved to be the better team.
 
DRBackup said:
UConn is at #8 because they've struggled against mediocre teams like PC, G'Town, etc. Exactly as this board has observed multiple times in the post game threads. That is why they're #8 and not #1. If they had played like they did the last 2 games against those teams in January they wouldn't be #8. Precisely the exact opposite point from what Gotlieb is ranting about.

Miami(OH) is undefeated, but sits at #89 in KP. Should they be higher than everyone but Arizona ?

It is stunning to see how little people understand what it tells you. And, keep in mind, that's what they all do, if they're not a ELO style score comparison ranking like Sagarin. Sagarin stopped doing his, but I did find one out there. UConn #3, Miami(OH) #35.
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So your entire rant is just going to ignore the head to head component? I think in an odd way we’re both in agreement these metrics don’t paint an accurate picture.

But in the same light, how high should Miami (OH) be? They have zero quad one wins, three quad two wins. And the remainder of their schedule is all quad three or quad four teams. Going undefeated without a single power conference win doesn’t earn you anything, does it? If they are anything higher than a ten seed they will be getting smoked and called out for that schedule. So no, I don’t think them being undefeated should put them in the same category as Arizona.
 
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ec33 said:
KenPom is saying that those teams are better than UConn. They RANK them higher than UConn.

Despite the fact that when they actually played on a basketball court UConn proved to be the better team.
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Was creighton the better team than uconn in 2024?
 
ec33 said:
KenPom is saying that those teams are better than UConn. They RANK them higher than UConn.

Despite the fact that when they actually played on a basketball court UConn proved to be the better team.
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Ken Pom is forward facing. If New England were to beat Seattle Sunday, they would still correctly be underdogs if they played again the following week.

All models are wrong. Some are useful. Ken pom is useful
 
JCisthegoat said:
Ken Pom is forward facing. If New England were to beat Seattle Sunday, they would still correctly be underdogs if they played again the following week.

All models are wrong. Some are useful. Ken pom is useful
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It is useful for betting. Not sure how effective it is for ranking teams or tournament selection, and Ken Pimeroy would probably agree with that assessment.
 
UCan3 said:
What I don't like about KenPom is that I think it contributes to a lack of sportsmanship.

I remember when years ago, we or other teams up by 20-30, starters pulled at 4-5 minutes mark. Now teams leave foot on gas until the end. It is KenPom and trying to game the system.

I agree with his points in that it's imperfect for sure. I would love to see however, KenPom be analyzed over the last 10 years. How accurate has it really been. Were the sweet 16 in top 16 according to KenPom prior to start of tourrney? I don't expect it to be perfect but would love know - some analysis..
Expand ...

Within the next few years, I predict Pomeroy and other efficiency ratings will be able to weight efficiency based on what the score was when a basket was scored or given up and what the final score of a game was. That should not be that complicated to do and would reduce the gaming of the efficiency ratings.
 
Everyones fascination with the metrics is a bit comical to me. Especially during the middle of the season. All the gyrations on where we will be seeded etc. Who cares. Six games, there will be some good teams that need to be beaten dowm. I will take our team, I like what I see. I trust our staff and process. We are building to be our best when needed. Enjoy the ride.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
It is useful for betting. Not sure how effective it is for ranking teams or tournament selection, and Ken Pimeroy would probably agree with that assessment.
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It's very useful for rankings based on how good teams will be moving forward, if that is what you're are trying to measure (but that is only a piece of tournament selection).
 
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