Friend of Boneyard Doug Gottlieb says KenPom is BS...

[ec33]

Was creighton the better team than uconn in 2024?

Ken Pom is forward facing. If New England were to beat Seattle Sunday, they would still correctly be underdogs if they played again the following week.

All models are wrong. Some are useful. Ken pom is useful

So you guys believe that UConn is now worse than those teams. And even the addition of Reed and Mullins to the lineup would be insufficient to make up the difference with Arizona?

Based on UConn's loss of zero games since any of those games?

Ok.

Edit to add: All because UConn doesn't look pretty when opponents hold them motionless on offense in whatever sport the Big East play under the guise of it being basketball?

 

[Pmurph678]

KenPom is a great predictive metric, but as some pointed out already, should not even factor into Tournament Selection.

Tournament selection should be strictly done on resume metrics IMO.

 

[phillionaire]

people are so obsessed with these predictive metrics, why even play the games? just let a computer decide who is better.

 

[2014DualCs]

people are so obsessed with these predictive metrics, why even play the games? just let a computer decide who is better.

I always poke fun in my friends’ group chat that we should crown the winner after conference tourneys based on kenpom

 

[7774]

What I don't like about KenPom is that I think it contributes to a lack of sportsmanship.

I remember when years ago, we or other teams up by 20-30, starters pulled at 4-5 minutes mark. Now teams leave foot on gas until the end. It is KenPom and trying to game the system.

I agree with his points in that it's imperfect for sure. I would love to see however, KenPom be analyzed over the last 10 years. How accurate has it really been. Were the sweet 16 in top 16 according to KenPom prior to start of tourrney? I don't expect it to be perfect but would love know - some analysis..

I'd love to hear some specific game examples of what's bolded happening, because people say it but I don't really see it. I watched Carolina/Cuse this week and Carolina took their starters out with like 8-10 minutes left in the game and then had to put them back in when Cuse cut the lead to single digits.

 

[jfreeds]

The OP’s point is clearly the metrics don’t show true rankings of teams as UConn has beaten two teams higher than them and since they only have 1 loss basically means the head to head is meaningless. KenPom is at a point it eliminates the things that matter, how teams perform against each other.

The point of KenPom is to show you that how a team performs against another doesn't actually determine who is better or in the grand scheme of an entire season, any singular performance doesn't really matter. It takes away the eye test. Again, that's the point because more often or not the the human eye test is wrong more than it is right.

There's a reason why Vegas now uses KP as part of their own equation in determining lines, becuse it is for more accurate than the human eye or other lesser metrics used.

What if Team A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C and Team C beat Team A. Who's better?

 

[willie99]

If you use KenPom to wager, you lose

If a mathematical formula can beat the spread, KenPom would be a billionaire already

 

[businesslawyer]

The point of KenPom is to show you that how a team performs against another doesn't actually determine who is better or in the grand scheme of an entire season, any singular performance doesn't really matter. It takes away the eye test. Again, that's the point because more often or not the the human eye test is wrong more than it is right.

There's a reason why Vegas now uses KP as part of their own equation in determining lines, becuse it is for more accurate than the human eye or other lesser metrics used.

What if Team A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C and Team C beat Team A. Who's better?

The answer to your last question is easy. The team I like the most.

 

[jfreeds]

Ask him to recite how many teams he was playing against were missing starters or resting guys or had weird travel stuff.

People only think of their own perspective. That kind of stuff usually balances out in the long run.

Exactly. And that's why KenPom is much more accurate than any eye test.

 

[uh-no]

If you use KenPom to wager, you lose

If a mathematical formula can beat the spread, KenPom would be a billionaire already

let me introduce you to my friend: the juice.
let me introduce you to my other friend: getting kicked off platforms if your edge is too big

 

[kcc1442]

I don't read full threads anymore so I apologize if I'm repeating someone else's stuff here but the biggest issue with our ratings is that we a are a very slow paced team. Why? Because Hurley believes in making a defense work, the more off ball screens and actions you can run the more tired a team gets and they will eventually mess up and give us a mismatch or easy back door cut. So this limits the possessions of a game and our potential to score crazy offensive numbers. It also wears on the other team's offense too because they are limited in possessions and tired on the offensive end. With that said, our potential for bigger margins of victory is smaller. We have to be uber efficient on the offensive end, which we aren't quite like the natty years. Thus, we have closer games, even against teams that KenPom and the likes have rated lower. So therefore our numbers drop because KenPom seems to be all in relation to expected margins. That's my thought. None of it matters because most of these even somewhat close games I never feel like we are in jeopardy of losing them. We know how to win. The end of the year will be most important if we can boost our offensive efficiency which I think we will if we can field a completely healthy squad which we have not been all the time. Which like captain D-B in the video in the OP said is a factor that is not considered.

 

[uh-no]

I don't read full threads anymore so I apologize if I'm repeating someone else's stuff here but the biggest issue with our ratings is that we a are a very slow paced team. Why? Because Hurley believes in making a defense work, the more off ball screens and actions you can run the more tired a team gets and they will eventually mess up and give us a mismatch or easy back door cut. So this limits the possessions of a game and our potential to score crazy offensive numbers. It also wears on the other team's offense too because they are limited in possessions and tired on the offensive end. With that said, our potential for bigger margins of victory is smaller. We have to be uber efficient on the offensive end, which we aren't quite like the natty years. Thus, we have closer games, even against teams that KenPom and the likes have rated lower. So therefore our numbers drop because KenPom seems to be all in relation to expected margins. That's my thought. None of it matters because most of these even somewhat close games I never feel like we are in jeopardy of losing them. We know how to win. The end of the year will be most important if we can boost our offensive efficiency which I think we will if we can field a completely healthy squad which we have not been all the time. Which like captain D-B in the video in the OP said is a factor that is not considered.

tell me you don't understand tempo-free metrics without telling me you don't understand tempo-free metrics.

kenpom does not evaluate margins, he evaluates the numberof points you score each posession...so it inherently accounts for the fact that we are slower. The "expected scoring margin" doesn't factor into....anything....except human eye tests.

That said, what a slower tempo DOES mean is higher varianace of outcomes. An extra 3 pointer made or missed matters so much more in a game with 50 posessions than in a game with 80. This is one of the reasons uva bombed out of so many tournaments. Uconn's offensive efficiency tanked because they scored barely more than a point per possession against some mediocre teams

72 points in 68 posessions against depaul (1.05)
73 points in 68 possessions against marquette (1.07)
72 in 65 against depaul (1.1)
69 in 65 against seton hall (1.06)
64 in 59 against georgetown (1.08)

Sure, shu has a good defense...but gtown and marquette are outside the top 100.

To give a sense of scale, a top 10 offense should be scoring something like 1.25 points a possession. so we're talking 5-10 points a game fewer than we should have scored AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE NUMBER OF POSSESSIONS.

 

[Pmurph678]

I don't read full threads anymore so I apologize if I'm repeating someone else's stuff here but the biggest issue with our ratings is that we a are a very slow paced team. Why? Because Hurley believes in making a defense work, the more off ball screens and actions you can run the more tired a team gets and they will eventually mess up and give us a mismatch or easy back door cut. So this limits the possessions of a game and our potential to score crazy offensive numbers. It also wears on the other team's offense too because they are limited in possessions and tired on the offensive end. With that said, our potential for bigger margins of victory is smaller. We have to be uber efficient on the offensive end, which we aren't quite like the natty years. Thus, we have closer games, even against teams that KenPom and the likes have rated lower. So therefore our numbers drop because KenPom seems to be all in relation to expected margins. That's my thought. None of it matters because most of these even somewhat close games I never feel like we are in jeopardy of losing them. We know how to win. The end of the year will be most important if we can boost our offensive efficiency which I think we will if we can field a completely healthy squad which we have not been all the time. Which like captain D-B in the video in the OP said is a factor that is not considered.

Kenpom is by possession, no punishment for slow pace

 

[jfreeds]

If you use KenPom to wager, you lose

If a mathematical formula can beat the spread, KenPom would be a billionaire already

If you use KenPom to wager, you lose

If a mathematical formula can beat the spread, KenPom would be a billionaire already

People did make millions with KP. The books caught on and started using KP to influence their own lines which reduced the leverage people had on the books. That's how good KP is - vegas acknowledged he had something on them. Think about that.

 

[willie99]

let me introduce you to my friend: the juice.
let me introduce you to my other friend: getting kicked off platforms if your edge is too big

Haha, so you think KenPom has been kicked off platforms?

So many ways around this if it were true, not even worthy of a discussion

Anyhow, prove me wrong, post some picks using KenPom BEFORE the games are played

 

[willie99]

People did make millions with KP. The books caught on and started using KP to influence their own lines which reduced the leverage people had on the books. That's how good KP is - vegas acknowledged he had something on them. Think about that.

I could use a citation, any citation

Then I'll "think about that"

Vegas should be picking the field. Not KenPom, and not the committee that uses the type of metrics KenPom provides

They put their money where there mouth is. They actually watch games, know coaches, and know talent

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Why is Doug Gottleib considered a "friend of the boneyard"?

 

[businesslawyer]

I could use a citation, any citation

Then I'll "think about that"

Vegas should be picking the field. Not KenPom, and not the committee that uses the type of metrics KenPom provides

They put their money where there mouth is. They actually watch games, know coaches, and know talent

No, Vegas should NOT be picking the field. Vegas cares about who would be favored the next day. Teams should be selected for the tournament based on what has already happened. A team that goes 0-31, and then has five All Americans who missed the entire regular season ready for the tourney should not get a bid just because they would be favored going forward. Wins and losses have to matter. Like they do — I don’t know — in any other sport.

 

[freescooter]

And... ? I have no idea what point that is supposed to be making

They're RATED higher. Not ranked higher

Kenpom or really any of these programs,
is bs is the point. It tries to distinguish differences where there really are none. Everybody knows the top 5 are much better than the 75-150. But really some statistical analysts is going to tell you that #2 is superior to #4? And by the way, #75 might just beat #4 in any given game.

I don’t agree with Nelson exactly though. If you want to say coaches schedule to beat these systems, I think that’s right but once games begin, unpredictable things often happen. You can’t “coach” to the metric.

 

[jfreeds]

I could use a citation, any citation

Then I'll "think about that"

Vegas should be picking the field. Not KenPom, and not the committee that uses the type of metrics KenPom provides

They put their money where there mouth is. They actually watch games, know coaches, and know talent

KenPom's 'profound' influence on the CBB betting market

A former weatherman disagreed with announcers on Air Force's quality of defense in a 2004 game. After that, Ken Pomeroy unintentionally changed the world of college basketball betting.

www.espn.com

This is one from a while back. There are tons of short documentaries and literature about how much he influenced the market and helped betters.

Also vegas does not watch games. Today, all their lines are made by their own models similar KenPom. Why? Because they understand that probably the worst thing you can do to be a good better and make bets based on what you see. The computer models are so much more accurate than any coach, player or whoever over a large sample size.

 

[willie99]

No, Vegas should NOT be picking the field. Vegas cares about who would be favored the next day. Teams should be selected for the tournament based on what has already happened. A team that goes 0-31, and then has five All Americans who missed the entire regular season ready for the tourney should not get a bid just because they would be favored going forward. Wins and losses have to matter. Like they do — I don’t know — in any other sport.

Well, I think the moon is made of swiss cheese, other people think it's provolone, that's life

Are you having a bad day? Maybe hallucinating? You are so much smarter than whatever poppycock you just posted
😊

 

[willie99]

KenPom's 'profound' influence on the CBB betting market

A former weatherman disagreed with announcers on Air Force's quality of defense in a 2004 game. After that, Ken Pomeroy unintentionally changed the world of college basketball betting.

www.espn.com

This is one from a while back. There are tons of short documentaries and literature about how much he influenced the market and helped betters.

Also vegas does not watch games. Today, all their lines are made by their own models similar KenPom. Why? Because they understand that probably the worst thing you can do to be a good better and make bets based on what you see. The computer models are so much more accurate than any coach, player or whoever over a large sample size.

I did say any citation, so that's on me

I simply don't think ESPN news worthy, I don’t care what they say, I just watch live programming. Sometimes with the volume off

There would be so much more out there, from people involved in the industry, people that actually know something beyond a fluff piece. If that's your only citation, I would argue that helps my argument

 

[UCan3]

I'd love to hear some specific game examples of what's bolded happening, because people say it but I don't really see it. I watched Carolina/Cuse this week and Carolina took their starters out with like 8-10 minutes left in the game and then had to put them back in when Cuse cut the lead to single digits.

Well, I’ve noticed it with us over the past few years And even Hurley I think is on record talking about how winning isn’t enough - it’s the total # of points. That was interesting comment.
But you are right in the sense even ChatGPT threw its hands up with no date to prove/dissprove. This may forever stay in the “think” category until ChatGPT gets a bit smarter

 

[businesslawyer]

Well, I think the moon is made of swiss cheese, other people think it's provolone, that's life

Are you having a bad day? Maybe hallucinating? You are so much smarter than whatever poppycock you just posted
😊

I hate to break this to you, but just be cause someone calls something an opinion doesn’t s..top it from being stupid.

 

[Greg]

LOL!!! This is classic. Here is old Doug talking smack about KenPom in regards to his mid major steaming pile

If Gottlieb is a friend of The Boneyard there needs to be a universal mute button.