Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, UConn, SMU
One of these teams is going to feel very bummed at being squeezed out of the tourney.
Hope it's not UConn.
Memphis has a neutral site win over Ok State and now a road win over Louisville to go with a top 20 RPI. I would say they are going to make the tournament solidly. Also remember the conference tournament is on their home floor.
Cincinnati has 6 top 100 RPI wins including a road win over Memphis, home win vs NC State and neutral site win over Pittsburgh. RPI is currently in the top 20. Cincinnati might just end up winning the league (which is way more than I expected, I thought bubble team). However, the schedule is back loaded...I would say another injury or something occurs and UC could stumble but at this point they are pretty solidly in.
Among the remaining 3, UConn currently has the advantage because of the good OOC wins over Florida and Harvard plus the wins over fellow bubblish teams Maryland & Indiana. Neither SMU or Louisville have an OOC win as good as the Florida win...in fact neither have anything at all. Louisville is in especially big trouble as their best win to date is over RPI-manipulator Southern Miss (they just play a bunch of bad teams on the road/neutral sites and play DII opponents that don't count against the RPI).
The two Louisville/SMU, Louisville/UConn and the one UConn/SMU games very well could determine NCAA at-large bids. Also, the 4th and 5th place teams are going to play the first game of the conference tournament and it could easily be a rematch for a 3rd time with two of those three...