Florida State Drama

[ZooCougar]

Nah. In fact, I recall you dumping on Maryland every chance you got. Almost like some kind of entitlement that you are displaying now. Good for a laugh and all.

My point was that a supermajority of the ACC wants Stanford and Cal, additive or otherwise, and Florida St. basically said tough (unless the ACC presumably would agree to cut them loose). Fine by me. Frankly, if Florida St. wants out that bad, they should be able to strike a deal.

In any case, what is Florida St’s plan? What conference has said they will take them?

Oh Maryland, My Maryland. FSU’s options are the ACC and independence.

 

[Pat125]

Listening to some Dylan...seems relevant...

Once upon a time you dressed so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn't you?
People call say 'beware doll, you're bound to fall'
You thought they were all kidding you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hanging out
Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging your next meal

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone




Making stuff up....link to supermajority of ACC wanting Stanford-Cal...

I didn't dump on Maryland...just said they were not competition (2-22 vs FSU), were in debt and cutting sports....Maryland did what they needed to do, and I hope that FSU does as well.

I saw your subsequent posts. By supermajority, I meant at least 10/15 (but short of the 12 needed). Frankly, I thought it was common knowledge.

If your comments (mentioned a number of times) weren’t dumping, then I don’t see how my comment would be considered dumping.

But it does sound like you really don’t know what is going to happen. Any guesses?

 

[Vowelguy]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

I want these “experts” to enter betting markets. Im not a gambler but I’d love to take the other side on “2024 will definitely be FSUs last year in the ACC.”

 

[billybud]

I saw your subsequent posts. By supermajority, I meant at least 10/15 (but short of the 12 needed). Frankly, I thought it was common knowledge.

If your comments (mentioned a number of times) weren’t dumping, then I don’t see how my comment would be considered dumping.

But it does sound like you really don’t know what is going to happen. Any guesses?

I don't know any more than anyone on this board...

But...2024 is definitely in ACC...After ? Anyone's guess.

 

[JeepCSC]

I heard an FSU YouTube guy say that the ACC GOR only covers home games and that if they moved to the BIG they would make more than enough to cover the fee.

Also he said that since ESPN has the SEC contract the fees would stay within the network which ultimately is tied to the GOR. So in this scenario there would be no penalty to. FSU.

I have no clue, but we'll all know soon enough.

This is all different from 8 schools dissolving the conference which is another scenario

The GOR is between the conference and schools. ESPN will pay FSU’s share to the ACC and not their new conference if it came about. I don’t know what the home games matter (the media rights don’t suddenly became half off or something) but it’s technically true.

 

[JMick]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

If someone is coming in to pay $500mm to get FSU out of the ACC why dont they just give FSU $500mm to make up the difference between the ACC and B1G/SEC media payouts...?

Isn't that just like.. a whole lot simpler? Does FSU really think they're going to have such a better team in a more competitive conference?

 

[billybud]

$120 million

 

[JMick]

$120 million

There's zero chance they get out for "only" $120mm unless something forbids the ACC from recouping damages.

 

[hoopsfan22]

So FSU will pay $120 million and burn bridges just to go suck in some other conference? Seems counterproductive to me.

 

[billybud]

$120 million was eveidently the donor pledge...equal to the exit fee...GOR is another subject.

 

[billybud]

So FSU will pay $120 million and burn bridges just to go suck in some other conference? Seems counterproductive to me.

Maybe they will suck..maybe not.....Making such an assumption may be presumptive....

I do know that history hasn't bee kind to conference changers...UConn to AAC, BC and Cuse to ACC, Mizzou and South Carolina to the SEC, and on...but each team will make its future or not.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Maybe they will suck..maybe not.....Making such an assumption may be presumptive....

I do know that history hasn't bee kind to conference changers...UConn to AAC, BC and Cuse to ACC, Mizzou and South Carolina to the SEC, and on...but each team will make its future or not.

We have three national championships in three different conferences under three different coaches in the last dozen years. I think we've done OK.

 

[billybud]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but the AAC was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

 

[WestCoastHusky]

U get what the networks will pay for...

In doing so, Smith has essentially confirmed that Fox was the driving factor for this move and gave the green light. This previously wouldn’t have been something that the rest of the conference greenlit, as splitting more of the revenue with two more schools isn’t exactly an attractive option. And according to Smith’s latest comments, it was Fox that produced more money, approximately $30-35 million per year for each of those two schools to make their way from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.

So Fox is trying to steal FSU from ESPN and put them into the B1G.

Just like Fox probably also B12 not to take UConn since they already got UConn on the cheap.

UConn needs to find a way to get away from Fox and ESPN.

 

[Hamms30]

I wonder if a few ACC teams are planning to leave and FSU took the lead and agreed to be "the bad guy" to see what the numbers etc. would come out to. Aside from that, how would FSU or any other schools afford the buyout? Finance it? Seems like a lot to put at the feet of donors and ask for their support. At that point, how long would it take to recoup the buy out costs + interest with the incremental surplus they get from the new conference. And separately, what conference agreed to take them? If NC State is looking at this to move to the Big12.. why would they go through the buyout costs to land in a conference that is less geographically appealing and pays less than they are getting in the ACC. It seems like by the time the payback period is over if they have to take on debt to finance the exit fees and whatever is included with the GOR, they'll be a decade down the road when leaving the ACC would have been the time to go anyways.

Me thinks the cable networks have created a bubble and it's about to go pop. How many other schools are in a situation like Oregon St. where they have invested in huge capital expenditures to upgrade facilities based on the expectation of future cashflows from a conference that now is on the brink of non-existence? How many ACC schools would this happen to if the conference dissolves?

 

[billybud]

I agree about the sports rights payment bubble...

 

[hoopsfan22]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but the AAC was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

If you count the women's team, UConn basketball won 4 national championships in 7 years of AAC membership. We weren't in the conference long enough for it to kill us. That's just a piss poor excuse for bad coaching hires.

 

[billybud]

Maybe, with streaming, the importance of football will be diminished from its current 80 percent of conference value...I probably won't still be around to see where we are 10 years from now...so I live in the present and near present.

Basketball viewership is improving...but it is March Madness that is the main draw vs regular season. If basketball becomes more monetized, that will be a tectonic shift.

 

[WestHartHusk]

If you are the BIG or SEC, do you really want the drama FSU brings? Maybe 15 years ago you suck it up, but if I had a vote I wouldn’t today.

 

[Vowelguy]

If you are the BIG or SEC, do you really want the drama FSU brings? Maybe 15 years ago you suck it up, but if I had a vote I wouldn’t today.

The SEC now has Texas, TAMU, Bama, LSU, Florida — FSU wouldn’t even be the biggest diva.

As much as everyone talks about the BiG bring top dog, it has a long term demographics problem. It needs access to growing areas, with big pipelines of HS athletes.

 

[John]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but a checked-out coach who was mailing it in was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

IFYPFY

 

[Vowelguy]

If Stan/Cal don’t get taken now, but are very confident that FSU is gone in a year, then they will go Independent. That will be the true indicator of whether folks think FSU has the juice to pull it off.

 

[billybud]

The fact that reportedly UNC was a NO vote for Stanford is strange and maybe telling...UNC is proud of its non revenue sports...like Stanford reels in.

UNC's 22 straight Women's Soccer NC's ...10 Field Hockey NC's...

I would have thought that the guys in chino's and sweater vests would be huge supporters of a like academic school with so many non revenue sports achievements.

 

[CL82]

So Fox is trying to steal FSU from ESPN and put them into the B1G.

Just like Fox probably also B12 not to take UConn since they already got UConn on the cheap.

UConn needs to find a way to get away from Fox and ESPN.

NBC deal ?

 

[ramses 2.0]

The fact that reportedly UNC was a NO vote for Stanford is strange and maybe telling...UNC is proud of its non revenue sports...like Stanford reels in.

UNC's 22 straight Women's Soccer NC's ...10 Field Hockey NC's...

I would have thought that the guys in chino's and sweater vests would be huge supporters of a like academic school with so many non revenue sports achievements.

What's strange about it? I'm sure in theory UNC would love to have Stanford but maybe UNC wants are stronger commitment from the conference, from ND, from ESPN or maybe they just don't see the benefit of the adds

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I thought a little more about what could be viewed as the equivalency of something like a long term GOR and I’m beginning to think it could be far worse for a school attempting to buy out of it than I initially believed, as from what we understand, there is no language in the agreement to address a school leaving early.

I believe the closest business comparison would be a long term office lease in a commercial building (depending on the quality of space and total square footage being leased, these normally run anywhere from ten to thirty years with built in escalations) where if it were a large enough building, there would be multiple tenants each with long term leases.

If the tenant is sufficiently perceptive, they will have payout terms written into the lease in the case of early termination (a penalty and a discounted lump sum payment for remaining term of the lease, normally a discounted cash flow calculation covering future lease payments). More often than not there is no language in the lease covering this so the tenant breaking the lease is on the hook for the remaining rent payments (unless a bankruptcy is in play, but often there are higher level guarantees to protect the landlord from an LLC filing for bankruptcy as a way out of a lease). This would be the case even if the space was subsequently rented after being abandoned. For the record, I’ve spent the past 23 years in this industry and there have been suits (and countersuits) that have led to the tenant a) being on the hook for the entire remainder of an early departed lease even if the space had been subsequently leased, b) the tenant being responsible to reimburse the landlord for all legal costs to pursue payment of the remaining rent term and c) the tenant being responsible to reimburse the landlord for costs incurred in securing a new (replacement) tenant (this part is almost adding insult to injury).

This is the standard judgement as this is accepted as normal practice in the industry and the punitive nature generally forces the departing tenant into seeking settlement without getting the court system involved.

I’m not claiming that this would apply equally to for example FSU leaving the ACC and saying “Let the courts decide” but, if it would apply similarly, FSU could be facing all of their media rights belonging to the ACC regardless of where FSU plays and, if the ACC were to replace FSU with another school, leading to the media partners reducing the total payment to the conference (for example, by $30 million annually due to the lesser product), FSU could be on the hook to cover that reduction and be required to cut the ACC a check for $30 million each year until the GOR expires.

In what would be purely a case of intellectual curiosity, I would be fascinated by a situation where a school attempted to leave and both sides held firm on refusing to negotiate a settlement.

 

[billybud]

What's strange about it? I'm sure in theory UNC would love to have Stanford but maybe UNC wants are stronger commitment from the conference, from ND, from ESPN or maybe they just don't see the benefit of the adds

ahhh...like FSU then.

 

[businesslawyer]

The SEC now has Texas, TAMU, Bama, LSU, Florida — FSU wouldn’t even be the biggest diva.

As much as everyone talks about the BiG bring top dog, it has a long term demographics problem. It needs access to growing areas, with big pipelines of HS athletes.

To be clear, it’s not just that it has a long term demographics problem. It has a problem that its publicity and monetization far, far, far exceeds its performance on the field. If we end up with just a Big 2, and I’d ever bother watching it after they killed college sports, why would I pick a Big Ten game over a SEC game.

 

[businesslawyer]

I thought a little more about what could be viewed as the equivalency of something like a long term GOR and I’m beginning to think it could be far worse for a school attempting to buy out of it than I initially believed, as from what we understand, there is no language in the agreement to address a school leaving early.

I believe the closest business comparison would be a long term office lease in a commercial building (depending on the quality of space and total square footage being leased, these normally run anywhere from ten to thirty years with built in escalations) where if it were a large enough building, there would be multiple tenants each with long term leases.

If the tenant is sufficiently perceptive, they will have payout terms written into the lease in the case of early termination (a penalty and a discounted lump sum payment for remaining term of the lease, normally a discounted cash flow calculation covering future lease payments). More often than not there is no language in the lease covering this so the tenant breaking the lease is on the hook for the remaining rent payments (unless a bankruptcy is in play, but often there are higher level guarantees to protect the landlord from an LLC filing for bankruptcy as a way out of a lease). This would be the case even if the space was subsequently rented after being abandoned. For the record, I’ve spent the past 23 years in this industry and there have been suits (and countersuits) that have led to the tenant a) being on the hook for the entire remainder of an early departed lease even if the space had been subsequently leased, b) the tenant being responsible to reimburse the landlord for all legal costs to pursue payment of the remaining rent term and c) the tenant being responsible to reimburse the landlord for costs incurred in securing a new (replacement) tenant (this part is almost adding insult to injury).

This is the standard judgement as this is accepted as normal practice in the industry and the punitive nature generally forces the departing tenant into seeking settlement without getting the court system involved.

I’m not claiming that this would apply equally to for example FSU leaving the ACC and saying “Let the courts decide” but, if it would apply similarly, FSU could be facing all of their media rights belonging to the ACC regardless of where FSU plays and, if the ACC were to replace FSU with another school, leading to the media partners reducing the total payment to the conference (for example, by $30 million annually due to the lesser product), FSU could be on the hook to cover that reduction and be required to cut the ACC a check for $30 million each year until the GOR expires.

In what would be purely a case of intellectual curiosity, I would be fascinated by a situation where a school attempted to leave and both sides held firm on refusing to negotiate a settlement.

So this is to me, not being expert in this, believes a court could go one of two ways on this, and which way a court rules on this has huge consequences. Can FSU lock out ESPN, to which the ACC assigned the GOR, and prevent it from teleconferencing FSU’s home games in, say the Big Ten, and let Fox’s crew in to show them? Yes, that would be a clear breach of contract, but generally parties to a contract are allowed to breach it and just pay damages. If that is allowed, the ACC and/or ESPN in this instance could sue for damages, but that would be actual damages, after the ACC in good faith tries to cover them by bringing in a less powerful replacement. On the other hand, if a court says FSU can’t lock out ESPN and has to let ESPN and only ESPN broadcast the game, then neither the Big nor FSU is getting any money from FSU home games so why would the Big pay FSU anything? (That is rhetorical — they wouldn’t.). I have from the beginning not been sure how a court would rule (and, to be clear, it’s not like I’ve spent free time researching this), and thus whether FSU can get out by writing a huge check, but based on the precedent in the music industry I can’t see another conference writing FSU a check and taking this risk unless and until FSU can resolve it in court.

 

[UCFBfan]

I still agree with Zoo when asking where is FSU going? If FSU can get out of the GOR, then other ACC teams can too. At that point, I don't see the B1G having any interest in them and instead heading to UNC and UVA. The SEC has UF and likely has little desire to add FSU. The same can be said about Clemson and if they need a second South Carolina school. However, the Big 12 just showed with both Utah schools that if you can corner a state you gotta do it!

I just don't see a spot for FSU. They're doing the dirty work and I feel like if they successfully break out of the GOR, they allow other ACC schools to do the same and the B1G gets who they really want and the SEC likely takes a pass.

There's a reason the SEC isn't expanding. They are the premier football conference and just added OU and UT. They rekindled the UT - A&M game and have zero need to add anyone. They can up their deal with their current makeup just because people want to watch their teams. I don't know if they have any desire to divy up the pot anymore than they need to.