Florida State Drama

[billybud]

Re plans...damned if I know...but I do know that folks are focused. May not be able to do anything for a while...but they aren't sitting on their hands.

If it makes financial sense for the conference, there will be additions...but only if the finances make sense.

 

[billybud]

And...if a supermajority wants Stanford-Cal...they are in. Only takes 12 of 15 votes.

 

[B1GEast]

I heard an FSU YouTube guy say that the ACC GOR only covers home games and that if they moved to the BIG they would make more than enough to cover the fee.

Also he said that since ESPN has the SEC contract the fees would stay within the network which ultimately is tied to the GOR. So in this scenario there would be no penalty to. FSU.

I have no clue, but we'll all know soon enough.

This is all different from 8 schools dissolving the conference which is another scenario

 

[billybud]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

 

[Dizzy21]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

I am pretty sure the ACC teams were not stupid enough to sign some documents that made it a lot harder to add some teams to the conference than dissolve the whole thing and get out of the GOR. Whoever is saying this garbage is simply not a smart person.

Think about needing like 13 votes to add another team, but only 8 to get out of the most important thing preventing the conference from going under and screwing everyone. I literally makes zero sense.

 

[ZooCougar]

Nah. In fact, I recall you dumping on Maryland every chance you got. Almost like some kind of entitlement that you are displaying now. Good for a laugh and all.

My point was that a supermajority of the ACC wants Stanford and Cal, additive or otherwise, and Florida St. basically said tough (unless the ACC presumably would agree to cut them loose). Fine by me. Frankly, if Florida St. wants out that bad, they should be able to strike a deal.

In any case, what is Florida St’s plan? What conference has said they will take them?

Oh Maryland, My Maryland. FSU’s options are the ACC and independence.

 

[Pat125]

Listening to some Dylan...seems relevant...

Once upon a time you dressed so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn't you?
People call say 'beware doll, you're bound to fall'
You thought they were all kidding you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hanging out
Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging your next meal

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone




Making stuff up....link to supermajority of ACC wanting Stanford-Cal...

I didn't dump on Maryland...just said they were not competition (2-22 vs FSU), were in debt and cutting sports....Maryland did what they needed to do, and I hope that FSU does as well.

I saw your subsequent posts. By supermajority, I meant at least 10/15 (but short of the 12 needed). Frankly, I thought it was common knowledge.

If your comments (mentioned a number of times) weren’t dumping, then I don’t see how my comment would be considered dumping.

But it does sound like you really don’t know what is going to happen. Any guesses?

 

[Vowelguy]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

I want these “experts” to enter betting markets. Im not a gambler but I’d love to take the other side on “2024 will definitely be FSUs last year in the ACC.”

 

[billybud]

I saw your subsequent posts. By supermajority, I meant at least 10/15 (but short of the 12 needed). Frankly, I thought it was common knowledge.

If your comments (mentioned a number of times) weren’t dumping, then I don’t see how my comment would be considered dumping.

But it does sound like you really don’t know what is going to happen. Any guesses?

I don't know any more than anyone on this board...

But...2024 is definitely in ACC...After ? Anyone's guess.

 

[JeepCSC]

I heard an FSU YouTube guy say that the ACC GOR only covers home games and that if they moved to the BIG they would make more than enough to cover the fee.

Also he said that since ESPN has the SEC contract the fees would stay within the network which ultimately is tied to the GOR. So in this scenario there would be no penalty to. FSU.

I have no clue, but we'll all know soon enough.

This is all different from 8 schools dissolving the conference which is another scenario

The GOR is between the conference and schools. ESPN will pay FSU’s share to the ACC and not their new conference if it came about. I don’t know what the home games matter (the media rights don’t suddenly became half off or something) but it’s technically true.

 

[JMick]

Update from Warchant owner...



The big question now is whether Florida State will officially declare its intentions to leave the ACC prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. Unlike last week, the feeling is now is that FSU will probably not announce prior the deadline. Here's why it's trending this way.

- Once the official declaration is made the clock starts ticking for FSU to pay the exit fee (approximately $120 million* More on this later). Declaring now also means FSU would need a new conference to play in by 2024. As of now, no deal has been done with the SEC or B1G so it would be taking a huge chance to declare now without a definite landing spot.

- Several other ACC schools are involved in informal discussion with other conferences. One of these schools is UNC and the B1G, which is interesting given the sanctimonious comments coming out of Chapel Hill towards FSU. Also heard that NC State is in talks with the Big 12. Anyways, once enough ACC teams have secured future homes (presumably eight) it would effectively end the conference and negate the Grant of Rights. If FSU left before this threshold was met, there could be a window where the GOR becomes an issue.

I know many were hopeful the official notice would come prior to the Aug. 15 deadline. While this may not happen, the good news is that I was told that 2024 will definitely be FSU's last season in the ACC. Also, just because FSU has a whole year before the next notice deadline, I've been told it will happen much sooner. FSU is prepared to give notice but feels it may not have all its ducks in a row by 2024, but will by 2025.

* I've heard a benefactor has come forward who is ready to step in to pay all or a good portion of the exit fee. I'm not at liberty to provide more details right now. But this is incredibly important to help fill FSU's short term financial shortcomings when it starts up in the SEC or B1G. It's likely that FSU will not receive a full share of the TV revenue in the first couple years. It's tough enough to receive a lesser share compared to the other conference teams, but would really be a strain to also have to pay back $120 million.

If someone is coming in to pay $500mm to get FSU out of the ACC why dont they just give FSU $500mm to make up the difference between the ACC and B1G/SEC media payouts...?

Isn't that just like.. a whole lot simpler? Does FSU really think they're going to have such a better team in a more competitive conference?

 

[billybud]

$120 million

 

[JMick]

$120 million

There's zero chance they get out for "only" $120mm unless something forbids the ACC from recouping damages.

 

[hoopsfan22]

So FSU will pay $120 million and burn bridges just to go suck in some other conference? Seems counterproductive to me.

 

[billybud]

$120 million was eveidently the donor pledge...equal to the exit fee...GOR is another subject.

 

[billybud]

So FSU will pay $120 million and burn bridges just to go suck in some other conference? Seems counterproductive to me.

Maybe they will suck..maybe not.....Making such an assumption may be presumptive....

I do know that history hasn't bee kind to conference changers...UConn to AAC, BC and Cuse to ACC, Mizzou and South Carolina to the SEC, and on...but each team will make its future or not.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Maybe they will suck..maybe not.....Making such an assumption may be presumptive....

I do know that history hasn't bee kind to conference changers...UConn to AAC, BC and Cuse to ACC, Mizzou and South Carolina to the SEC, and on...but each team will make its future or not.

We have three national championships in three different conferences under three different coaches in the last dozen years. I think we've done OK.

 

[billybud]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but the AAC was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

 

[WestCoastHusky]

U get what the networks will pay for...

In doing so, Smith has essentially confirmed that Fox was the driving factor for this move and gave the green light. This previously wouldn’t have been something that the rest of the conference greenlit, as splitting more of the revenue with two more schools isn’t exactly an attractive option. And according to Smith’s latest comments, it was Fox that produced more money, approximately $30-35 million per year for each of those two schools to make their way from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.

So Fox is trying to steal FSU from ESPN and put them into the B1G.

Just like Fox probably also B12 not to take UConn since they already got UConn on the cheap.

UConn needs to find a way to get away from Fox and ESPN.

 

[Hamms30]

I wonder if a few ACC teams are planning to leave and FSU took the lead and agreed to be "the bad guy" to see what the numbers etc. would come out to. Aside from that, how would FSU or any other schools afford the buyout? Finance it? Seems like a lot to put at the feet of donors and ask for their support. At that point, how long would it take to recoup the buy out costs + interest with the incremental surplus they get from the new conference. And separately, what conference agreed to take them? If NC State is looking at this to move to the Big12.. why would they go through the buyout costs to land in a conference that is less geographically appealing and pays less than they are getting in the ACC. It seems like by the time the payback period is over if they have to take on debt to finance the exit fees and whatever is included with the GOR, they'll be a decade down the road when leaving the ACC would have been the time to go anyways.

Me thinks the cable networks have created a bubble and it's about to go pop. How many other schools are in a situation like Oregon St. where they have invested in huge capital expenditures to upgrade facilities based on the expectation of future cashflows from a conference that now is on the brink of non-existence? How many ACC schools would this happen to if the conference dissolves?

 

[billybud]

I agree about the sports rights payment bubble...

 

[hoopsfan22]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but the AAC was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

If you count the women's team, UConn basketball won 4 national championships in 7 years of AAC membership. We weren't in the conference long enough for it to kill us. That's just a piss poor excuse for bad coaching hires.

 

[billybud]

Maybe, with streaming, the importance of football will be diminished from its current 80 percent of conference value...I probably won't still be around to see where we are 10 years from now...so I live in the present and near present.

Basketball viewership is improving...but it is March Madness that is the main draw vs regular season. If basketball becomes more monetized, that will be a tectonic shift.

 

[WestHartHusk]

If you are the BIG or SEC, do you really want the drama FSU brings? Maybe 15 years ago you suck it up, but if I had a vote I wouldn’t today.

 

[Vowelguy]

If you are the BIG or SEC, do you really want the drama FSU brings? Maybe 15 years ago you suck it up, but if I had a vote I wouldn’t today.

The SEC now has Texas, TAMU, Bama, LSU, Florida — FSU wouldn’t even be the biggest diva.

As much as everyone talks about the BiG bring top dog, it has a long term demographics problem. It needs access to growing areas, with big pipelines of HS athletes.