Five Thirty Eight's Prediction Model

[Redux]

Nate Silver's crew has the following teams with a 5% or better chance at the National Tiltle.

SC. 46%
Stanford. 16%
NCSt. 15%
Louisville 6%
UConn 6%
Baylor 5%

 

[jchusky]

the final that I see the most ppl pick is Stanford-SC, wouldn't that be fitting after last season's final 4 and the best reg season game of the wbb season.

 

[CB360]

I can't help to feel like the "Expert's" are not on board yet with UConn's improvement over the last month. I feel they are still thinking about the UConn team back in January/early Feb.......JMHO

 

[jchusky]

I can't help to feel like the "Expert's" are not on board yet with UConn's improvement over the last month. I feel they are still thinking about the UConn team back in January/early Feb.......JMHO

I think it's a combination of a few things. 1. They have no set lineup, the other ntl title contenders have basically rolled the same lineup all season reps together matter. 2. Paige is not 100%, what is Geno going to say "yea our best player is not 100% as the tournament starts" ? If they get bounced earlier than final 4 I expect known injuries to be known. Again I'm not a doctor, but I expect when season starts a few players will be known to have been playing through injuries. I can't recall the last time a team was this hurt and all of a sudden come tournament they rolled and won the title.

 

[oldude]

For what it’s worth, Vegas has UConn with the second best odds to win behind SC. That seems more realistic, although UConn’s road to a championship is much tougher.

 

[Conndog]

Except for when SC played UConn, I haven't seen SC any other time. Boston is a beast, containing her or limiting offensive rebounds is a key- but the rest of the team is solid too. The couple of losses they have had were only by a few points- actually, by one point in overtime to Missouri, and by two points to Kentucky. Boston is high scorer in 90 % of their games, Cooke and Henderson are next. Good coach who is apparently well-liked by players.

Haven't seen Stanford either, but their three losses have all been to top 25 teams- by 5 to Texas, by 4 to SC, and by 3 to USF. A tall team with good outside shooting, deep roster, legit good, actually not unlike UConn. Not sure if they are on UConn's defensive level. Coaching another strongpoint for them. Cameron Brink and Haley Jones are leading scorers, but on any given day, any number of players could be leading scorer.

Don't know anything about NC State, but from ESPN team stats, their 3 losses have been to #1 SC by 9 (first game of season), by 2 to #18 Georgia and by 3 to #20 Notre Dame. Their center Cunane is usually the top scorer but also leading them are guard Diamond Johnson and forwards Jakia Brown-Turner and Kayla Jones.

These three teams will be top challengers to UConn's chances of winning it all, and I too am surprised that 538 only thinks our chances are 6%. It must be based on season's body of work and not current state/health of the team. UConn now is playing best ball of season, and with my fingers crossed I hope Paige heals & returns to her abilities more & more. She looked shaky during Big East final against Villlanova, odd turnovers, didn't score or play much- just a hiccup, I think.

What I really like about UConn's chances, in addition to the team as a whole having lots of offensive weapons, is how strong a defensive unit it has become. If you can keep the opposite team from scoring easily and limit offensive rebounds, then we are as likely to win it all as anyone. Of the top 3 teams mentioned, I think Stanford is the weakest defensively- they are tall and score, but I think they don't have same defensive strength that SC has, and I don't know about NCSt, but I think they have reputation for being good defensively too.

For us, it is imperative to keep switching and defending well and also to secure the rebounds. I think the scoring will take care of itself. Limit turnovers, get rebounds, and we win it all.

 

[SLY63]

I believe 538 is a computer generated mathematical model. Not sure if it understands injurie and lineups

 

[HuskyNan]

For what it’s worth, Vegas has UConn with the second best odds to win behind SC. That seems more realistic, although UConn’s road to a championship is much tougher.

Las Vegas isn’t predicting the winner of any sports competition - it’s predicting bettor behavior. The odds just mean that Las Vegas thinks a lot of people will bet on UConn. That’s why odds change before any competition rather than remain fixed, they’re adjusting to ensure 50% of bettors are betting on each team.

 

[SVCBeercats]

I can't help to feel like the "Expert's" are not on board yet with UConn's improvement over the last month. I feel they are still thinking about the UConn team back in January/early Feb.......JMHO

For what it’s worth, Vegas has UConn with the second best odds to win behind SC. That seems more realistic, although UConn’s road to a championship is much tougher.

In my working life we were contracted by Fortune 500 companies to evaluate their methodologies and models for performance management and capacity planning of their computer and network systems. In almost all cases the models severely reflected the analysts' bias. I suspect 538 is guilty of the same error.

 

[HuskyNan]

In my working life we were contracted by Fortune 500 companies to evaluate their methodologies and models for performance management and capacity planning of their computer and network systems. In almost all cases the models severely reflected the analysts' bias. I suspect 538 is guilty of the same error.

Five Thirty Eight is making predictions based on statistics only. If you read the article, it points out that several teams that went into the tourney expected to win, didn’t. The site is well aware of the limitations of statistics when predicting human behavior.

 

[SVCBeercats]

Five Thirty Eight is making predictions based on statistics only. If you read the article, it points out that several teams that went into the tourney expected to win, didn’t. The site is well aware of the limitations of statistics when predicting human behavior.

Yeah just like 2016! Being mathematically aware does not disallow bias.

 

[CB360]

I can't recall the last time a team was this hurt and all of a sudden come tournament they rolled and won the title.

Well, That means there's going to be a first eventually. Why not this year!!

 

[Blakeon18]

Amen [!] to Nan's post.

You often read about how much Vegas knows about the quality of teams. Basically not true.
They make their considerable money by being very good at what teams will be bet on...what teams not.
They often think that well-known teams will get bet on not because they are better but because of their fame.
e.g. Yankees/GreenBay/Dallas/UConn.

They also have a constant Plan B...too much comes in on somebody...the odds go down. Too little and the bettor will get more favorable odds.

What I do not know...Nan, do you? If I bet on a race horse to win at 8-1 odds early in the day and suddenly a lot of money is bet on the same horse to win and the odds go down to 3-1. If he wins, do I get paid at 8-1 or 3-1?

My impression in other sports...right or wrong? If I bet on a bad baseball team to win the World Series in March at 200-1 and somehow in early September that team is doing great and the odds for a September bet are now 10-1, I think I would get a payoff at 'my' odds of 200-1...should they win the WS. True or not?

 

[jchusky]

Uconn odds are definitely public just betting on them because they are Uconn. Reminds me of ppl just betting the nets last season thinking they would win the finals cause of their "big 3" did not happen.

 

[oldude]

Las Vegas isn’t predicting the winner of any sports competition - it’s predicting bettor behavior. The odds just mean that Las Vegas thinks a lot of people will bet on UConn. That’s why odds change before any competition rather than remain fixed, they’re adjusting to ensure 50% of bettors are betting on each team.

Let me restate. Vegas odds reflect the “money line” created by individuals betting on the game. Right now the payout if UConn wins the championship is the second lowest to SC.

Those odds will likely change based on how much the money line moves leading up to the tournament. The “smart money” typically isn’t wagered until right before the start of the tournament. In addition, once the tournament starts, the betting line will continue to be adjusted based on team performance, upsets & injuries.

 

[Charliebball]

I can't help to feel like the "Expert's" are not on board yet with UConn's improvement over the last month. I feel they are still thinking about the UConn team back in January/early Feb.......JMHO

that's fine by me......being the favorite hasn't helped UConn in quite some time in the tournament............

 

[CB360]

that's fine by me......being the favorite hasn't helped UConn in quite some time in the tournament............

Under the radar is a good thing..........

 

[Urshurak]

Didn't Notre Dame win the Natty after a bunch of injuries that season?

 

[jchusky]

another tool that actually has been pretty accurate is BPI, I believe Baylor was 7% and Uconn was 8%. Interesting that Uconn was only 1% better than Baylor.

South Carolina	29%
Stanford	24%
NC State	14%

 

[and one]

Amen [!] to Nan's post.

You often read about how much Vegas knows about the quality of teams. Basically not true.
They make their considerable money by being very good at what teams will be bet on...what teams not.
They often think that well-known teams will get bet on not because they are better but because of their fame.
e.g. Yankees/GreenBay/Dallas/UConn.

They also have a constant Plan B...too much comes in on somebody...the odds go down. Too little and the bettor will get more favorable odds.

What I do not know...Nan, do you? If I bet on a race horse to win at 8-1 odds early in the day and suddenly a lot of money is bet on the same horse to win and the odds go down to 3-1. If he wins, do I get paid at 8-1 or 3-1?

My impression in other sports...right or wrong? If I bet on a bad baseball team to win the World Series in March at 200-1 and somehow in early September that team is doing great and the odds for a September bet are now 10-1, I think I would get a payoff at 'my' odds of 200-1...should they win the WS. True or not?

I'm sure you are right that the payout for a bet is based on the odds when the bet was made.

Is there a secondary market for bets? Say I bet $100 on the Giants to win next year's Superbowl at 1,000 to one odds. If I win I get $100,000 back right? Now it is late in the season and the Giants are 10 and 2 (this is obviously make-believe) and the odds are now 20 to one. Can I legally sell the rights to collect on my 1,000 to 1 bet to a third party through the betting company? You could do that informally by say contracting with your neighbor to sell the rights to a winning payoff for some amount less than the full payoff. Like factoring accounts receivable or the mortgage secondary market.

 

[npignatjr]

Didn't Notre Dame win the Natty after a bunch of injuries that season?

Lots of stripes help.

 

[Blakeon18]

And one: this is getting waaay over my head...not hard to do.

I'm not a betting person but I do read occasionally the betting column in the NY Post.
Their 'expert' has lots of info and strategies.

One is about 'Joes' and 'Sharks'. Joes are regular type fans and tend to bet lower amounts.
'Sharks' are bigtime gamblers who do lots of research and tend to bet much larger amounts.

Example: men's tourney...round one. Vermont [13 seed] plays Arkansas [4 seed] in Buffalo.
Arkansas is favored by a few points...say 5. The Post 'expert' says that most bets are coming in
are on Vermont...but they tend to be small bets....from Joes. He says that while there are fewer bets on Arkansas they are larger ones...coming from Sharks. More money is on Arkansas...not more bets....but more money.

Result: the odds went down some...maybe to 4 points for Arkansas...trying to urge more Vermont bets whether small or not....to even out the amount bet on each team.

Uhhh...glad I do not bet.

BTW: rooting for Vermont! They are from New England....and if UConn wins Rd 1, they would face the winner of Vermont/Arkansas on Saturday...I figure it would be harder to take down the Razorbacks.

 

[Zarathustra]

I can't help to feel like the "Expert's" are not on board yet with UConn's improvement over the last month. I feel they are still thinking about the UConn team back in January/early Feb.......JMHO

Then again some statistics do deceive! Let's consider Context and Chemistry...
The "W" is in the chemistry and the Boneyard has their pick of
multiple chemical catalysts: the entire coaching staff, plus = Geno,
Paige, Evina, Dorka, Christyn, Olivia, Aubrey, Aaliyah, Nika, Piath,
Amari, Azzi, and last, but not least, Caroline ( the charmer ).
Go Huskies!!

 

[Brewski]

Then again some statistics do deceive! Let's consider Context and Chemistry...
The "W" is in the chemistry and the Boneyard has their pick of
multiple chemical catalysts: the entire coaching staff, plus = Geno,
Paige, Evina, Dorka, Christyn, Olivia, Aubrey, Aaliyah, Nika, Piath,
Amari, Azzi, and last, but not least, Caroline ( the charmer ).
Go Huskies!!

Thus "Spake" Zarathustra!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Her Hoops Stats predicts UConn will reach the Final Four.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Her Hoops Stats predicts UConn will reach the Final Four.

Nice to get some positive results for my $20 annual subscription.

 

[Golden Husky]

And one: this is getting waaay over my head...not hard to do.

I'm not a betting person but I do read occasionally the betting column in the NY Post.
Their 'expert' has lots of info and strategies.

One is about 'Joes' and 'Sharks'. Joes are regular type fans and tend to bet lower amounts.
'Sharks' are bigtime gamblers who do lots of research and tend to bet much larger amounts.

Example: men's tourney...round one. Vermont [13 seed] plays Arkansas [4 seed] in Buffalo.
Arkansas is favored by a few points...say 5. The Post 'expert' says that most bets are coming in
are on Vermont...but they tend to be small bets....from Joes. He says that while there are fewer bets on Arkansas they are larger ones...coming from Sharks. More money is on Arkansas...not more bets....but more money.

Result: the odds went down some...maybe to 4 points for Arkansas...trying to urge more Vermont bets whether small or not....to even out the amount bet on each team.

Uhhh...glad I do not bet.

BTW: rooting for Vermont! They are from New England....and if UConn wins Rd 1, they would face the winner of Vermont/Arkansas on Saturday...I figure it would be harder to take down the Razorbacks.

A bit to unpack here:

First, unsophisticated bettors are called "squares." Sophisticated bettors are referred to as "sharps." A very sophisticated bettor is called a "triple sharp." (Don't ask me why there's no such thing as a "double sharp"). Of course, the Post journalist can use his own terminology but "squares" and "sharps" are the more widely used words.

Except for the Super Bowl, squares have little impact on the line; they just don't bet enough. Yes, it's the amount of money wagered that influences the line, not the amount of bets, @Blakeon18 .

Making and adjusting a line is a reasonably complicated task, which helps explain why today's bookmaker is far more likely to have a BA in sportsbook management and a working knowledge of mathematics than be some colorful character with a fedora and a diamond pinky ring. Adjusting the line involves concepts such as "the ladder principle," THP (theoretical hold percentage), PHP (practical hold percentage) and "extension" (the amount of money a book is willing to risk losing on a game).

As mentioned earlier in the thread, the line's purpose is to predict the wagering, not the outcome of a game. Oddsmakers work for the house, designing a structure that usually provides a profit for the house, irrespective of which team wins the game.

I hope this helps.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

In my working life we were contracted by Fortune 500 companies to evaluate their methodologies and models for performance management and capacity planning of their computer and network systems. In almost all cases the models severely reflected the analysts' bias. I suspect 538 is guilty of the same error.

Agree but in this case, the error is not just analysts' bias but the data used....historical for the season. UConn became a whole team after all their OOC games, the greatly improved performances of the team were against lesser teams....no analyst would include projections based on unknowns without publishing the expected error band. So, the prediction cannot reflect the expected performance of this team as it is now constituted against better opponents nor is it able to account for the intangible gains it made in surviving the ordeal.

Having said all that, given the UConn team where it is now, I feel much, much better about their chances than I did of the US Olympic Hockey team against the Soviets in 1960 at Lake Placid. We know what happened to all the predictions for that game.....

 

[GoUconn7961]

Didn't see this thread and posted the link to the article in another. I found the percentages interesting.

 

[LoboDays]

My local purveyor of probabilities who can be found in the back booth at O’Malley’s Bar has an easier way of determining odds and point spreads. He says if I want the favorite, I give 5 points. If I want the underdog, I get 4.