Final Four? - Redo | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Final Four? - Redo

The coach will have to see that the current group he is counting on can't be counted on. Geno will have to make some changes and I think he now realizes it. They don't need three guards and Sarah on the floor, it just doesn't make sense and it puts them at a huge disadvantage on defense and rebounding. Time to either commit to Jana or Ice and put Aubrey in to a starter role. With Paige running the offense, Azzi and Sarah spotting up on the perimeter they have all they need and no player currently playing brings anything they don't do better.

I do expect that Azzi and Paige will bring a much better game to SC next week than they did to Tennessee. This team still has the best roster in WCBB but they need to show they can raise their level of play when it is needed.
 
My wife and I were out of state on a short vacation at the time of Thursday night’s defeat at Knoxville. This has given me the opportunity to review the postings on the postgame thread and to reflect on the game and the season.

As far as the game was concerned, we can say that the Huskies could have won if a few breaks had gone our way, like for, example, the two late fouls that Strong received, one that negated a Fudd 3 and the second with just eleven seconds left in the game, and Paige’s missing a basket that would have tied the game late. And there were other specifics that one could point to, but as many have noted the team’s problems against good teams do not go away. The lack of a strong inside presence, missed layups, and poor three point shooting. Some posters have pointed out correctly that the team appears to lack the presence of a player who is determined not to lose and Jennifer Rizzotti embodies that tradition.

We all remember how much we were looking forward to the season and how all the preseason polls saw UConn as the 2nd best team in the nation. Most of us would agree that the team has underperformed this season and I have decided to approach the problem by assessing the performance of all the players who are at least a semi-part of the rotation. I have skipped those who do not play much and Aubrey Griffin who has been in only a handful of games and divided the players into three categories - exceeded expectations, met expectations, not met expectations.

Exceeded expectations - Sarah Strong. We all knew that she was supposed to be good but she is putting up an All-American season.

Met expectations - Arnold, Chelli. After a slow start KK Arnold has come on strong in recent games. Her speed is much needed, but she still makes forced drives to the basket that end badly. I didn’t expect much from Morgan Chelli, yet she has played more than expected, has had some good minutes, but is too tentative.

Not met expectations - Bueckers, Fudd, Shade, Chen, El Alfy, Brady. Paige has not met expectations because they are so high for her. Despite being the team leader, she does not shoot enough in big games. Granted, opponents realize that if you can control Bueckers, you can defeat UConn, but she often doesn’t look for he shot enough and the team does not work enough to set her up for good shots. Fudd, unfortunately, has not been the player we expected to see. As some have pointed out, she is often tentative. Ashlynn Shade’s motor is always running but she has not shot well in big games. Kaitlyn Chen has had some good games but has not performed at the level expected from her Princeton career. El Alfy and Brady do not appear to be ready for prime time.

As the season has played out, the general consensus is that in order to be successful against really good teams, the Huskies need solid performances from Strong, Bueckers, and Fudd or another third scorer. Against Tennessee, we had 1.5 out of 3 and still the game was winnable. The center position has been a problem all season. El Alfy has potential, but she is not quick, her rebounding has been under par, and she misses too many shots around the basket. The one bright spot is that Aubrey Griffin is rounding into shape and could be a difference maker. She played well in her limited minutes against the Volunteers and the “small” team was often effective.

It may well be that the best team the Huskies can put on the court is Strong, Griffin, Fudd, Bueckers, and Arnold. As TonyC continues to remind us, there are grounds for optimism, but as of now I am in the glass half empty camp..
I don’t think Ash has underperformed. I think the folks had overly high expectations for her.
She’s good at a lot of things but not great at any of them, except maybe effort. She’s a good 4th or 5th option, which is what she was last year.
 
I'm not a UCONN fan but I do think a Final Four is well within reach for this team if they get a good matchup, especially with the talent on the roster. The games they've lost have been:

-11 point loss to Notre Dame, UCONN shot 3-16 and was within 6 points with 3 minutes to go. Just got outplayed down the stretch and Notre Dame shot extremely well at home.

-2 point loss to USC, Juju Watkins had her best game of the season against a good team, UCONN shot just 6-23 from deep, and stormed back from 18 down to tie the game before USC made plays down the stretch to win. Strong missed FTs that could've tied it.

-4 point loss to Tennessee, similarly UCONN was down by 9, stormed back to tie the game before Tennessee made plays down the stretch. UCONN shot just 5-20 from 3, off day from Azzi and off day from Paige. Strong committed a bad foul that likely sealed the win but it was tied late.


The losses so far remind me a bit of the 2012-13 season, where most of the UCONN losses came down to things they messed up in the last minute or 2. All 3 Notre Dame losses in 2012-13 were self-inflicted, based on turnovers and missed FTs. The last 2 losses were self-inflicted IMO, and can be credited to missed FTs and poor play down the stretch. In 2013, once they got some confidence and found their rhythm, they throttled Notre Dame. If this team hits a few more open threes in the last 2 losses, they win both and are in line for a #1 seed. Players and teams learn more from moments like this than they do in wins.
 
I'm not a UCONN fan but I do think a Final Four is well within reach for this team if they get a good matchup, especially with the talent on the roster. The games they've lost have been:

-11 point loss to Notre Dame, UCONN shot 3-16 and was within 6 points with 3 minutes to go. Just got outplayed down the stretch and Notre Dame shot extremely well at home.

-2 point loss to USC, Juju Watkins had her best game of the season against a good team, UCONN shot just 6-23 from deep, and stormed back from 18 down to tie the game before USC made plays down the stretch to win. Strong missed FTs that could've tied it.

-4 point loss to Tennessee, similarly UCONN was down by 9, stormed back to tie the game before Tennessee made plays down the stretch. UCONN shot just 5-20 from 3, off day from Azzi and off day from Paige. Strong committed a bad foul that likely sealed the win but it was tied late.


The losses so far remind me a bit of the 2012-13 season, where most of the UCONN losses came down to things they messed up in the last minute or 2. All 3 Notre Dame losses in 2012-13 were self-inflicted, based on turnovers and missed FTs. The last 2 losses were self-inflicted IMO, and can be credited to missed FTs and poor play down the stretch. In 2013, once they got some confidence and found their rhythm, they throttled Notre Dame. If this team hits a few more open threes in the last 2 losses, they win both and are in line for a #1 seed. Players and teams learn more from moments like this than they do in wins.
The problem is that they consistently shoot poorly against the better teams. The numbers you show prove the point. They have lost these games because of the way they played. You can't just look at the numbers and say if we did this we would have won. Therefore we will win in the future. Sure, if we had made 1 more 3 and made 2 of those bunny layups, we win. Why didn't we? We get rattled far too easily in big games. Last year we had two strong senior leaders in Nika and Aaliyah. I haven't seen it from Paige in big games yet this year. Time is running out. Honestly, it will be harder to get to the FF this year than last and if we do it will be one of Geno's very best jobs ever. I lost a lot of confidence Thursday night. You can't coach character, resolve, focus and fortitude. You either have it or you don't. We have to beat SC now in my book to have any kind of a decent seeding.
 
My wife and I were out of state on a short vacation at the time of Thursday night’s defeat at Knoxville. This has given me the opportunity to review the postings on the postgame thread and to reflect on the game and the season.

As far as the game was concerned, we can say that the Huskies could have won if a few breaks had gone our way, like for, example, the two late fouls that Strong received, one that negated a Fudd 3 and the second with just eleven seconds left in the game, and Paige’s missing a basket that would have tied the game late. And there were other specifics that one could point to, but as many have noted the team’s problems against good teams do not go away. The lack of a strong inside presence, missed layups, and poor three point shooting. Some posters have pointed out correctly that the team appears to lack the presence of a player who is determined not to lose and Jennifer Rizzotti embodies that tradition.

We all remember how much we were looking forward to the season and how all the preseason polls saw UConn as the 2nd best team in the nation. Most of us would agree that the team has underperformed this season and I have decided to approach the problem by assessing the performance of all the players who are at least a semi-part of the rotation. I have skipped those who do not play much and Aubrey Griffin who has been in only a handful of games and divided the players into three categories - exceeded expectations, met expectations, not met expectations.

Exceeded expectations - Sarah Strong. We all knew that she was supposed to be good but she is putting up an All-American season.

Met expectations - Arnold, Chelli. After a slow start KK Arnold has come on strong in recent games. Her speed is much needed, but she still makes forced drives to the basket that end badly. I didn’t expect much from Morgan Chelli, yet she has played more than expected, has had some good minutes, but is too tentative.

Not met expectations - Bueckers, Fudd, Shade, Chen, El Alfy, Brady. Paige has not met expectations because they are so high for her. Despite being the team leader, she does not shoot enough in big games. Granted, opponents realize that if you can control Bueckers, you can defeat UConn, but she often doesn’t look for he shot enough and the team does not work enough to set her up for good shots. Fudd, unfortunately, has not been the player we expected to see. As some have pointed out, she is often tentative. Ashlynn Shade’s motor is always running but she has not shot well in big games. Kaitlyn Chen has had some good games but has not performed at the level expected from her Princeton career. El Alfy and Brady do not appear to be ready for prime time.

As the season has played out, the general consensus is that in order to be successful against really good teams, the Huskies need solid performances from Strong, Bueckers, and Fudd or another third scorer. Against Tennessee, we had 1.5 out of 3 and still the game was winnable. The center position has been a problem all season. El Alfy has potential, but she is not quick, her rebounding has been under par, and she misses too many shots around the basket. The one bright spot is that Aubrey Griffin is rounding into shape and could be a difference maker. She played well in her limited minutes against the Volunteers and the “small” team was often effective.

It may well be that the best team the Huskies can put on the court is Strong, Griffin, Fudd, Bueckers, and Arnold. As TonyC continues to remind us, there are grounds for optimism, but as of now I am in the glass half empty camp..
I agree with your starting team with the proviso that KC goes in quickly for KK if she tries to force and doesn't distribute well on the break or in transition. Small is the only way. Jana sadly, is not yet ready to play at the level she needed to Thursday night.
 
.-.
The coach will have to see that the current group he is counting on can't be counted on. Geno will have to make some changes and I think he now realizes it. They don't need three guards and Sarah on the floor, it just doesn't make sense and it puts them at a huge disadvantage on defense and rebounding. Time to either commit to Jana or Ice and put Aubrey in to a starter role. With Paige running the offense, Azzi and Sarah spotting up on the perimeter they have all they need and no player currently playing brings anything they don't do better.

I do expect that Azzi and Paige will bring a much better game to SC next week than they did to Tennessee. This team still has the best roster in WCBB but they need to show they can raise their level of play when it is needed.
Agree they need to ramp up Aubrey's playing time ASAP for rebounding, defense, and a bit of offense as well. Agree they need to re-balance the Jana / Ice playing time - in favor of Ice I would say, when she is ready (but keep Jana in the mix, as hope springs eternal with project bigs). If you were to rank roster for prime time potential impact it would look something like: Paige, Sarah, Azzi, KK, Aubrey, Ash or Chen, Brady, Jana, Frosh trio lead by Chelli. There is no one over 6" 2" in your best 7. You are almost never going to see Jana, Brady and Aubrey in the same lineup (where would "any" points come from). So we are destined to be a go-small team, particularly any time Jana is not on the court (which is most of the time)
 
Agree they need to ramp up Aubrey's playing time ASAP for rebounding, defense, and a bit of offense as well. Agree they need to re-balance the Jana / Ice playing time - in favor of Ice I would say, when she is ready (but keep Jana in the mix, as hope springs eternal with project bigs). If you were to rank roster for prime time potential impact it would look something like: Paige, Sarah, Azzi, KK, Aubrey, Ash or Chen, Brady, Jana, Frosh trio lead by Chelli. There is no one over 6" 2" in your best 7. You are almost never going to see Jana, Brady and Aubrey in the same lineup (where would "any" points come from). So we are destined to be a go-small team, particularly any time Jana is not on the court (which is most of the time)
Bingo!
 

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