Final Four? - Redo

[BfromCT]

Update. There has been a good deal of discussion on this subject in this and other threads. In my original post on December 23, I expressed skepticism about the prospects for the 2024-25 Husky team. UConn has had several more games under its belt and the regular season is well over half over, so I’m taking another look at this topic.

Whatever the Final Four prospects are, I have real doubts about the team’s ability to defeat South Carolina, UCLA, or Notre Dame, although the upcoming away games against Tennessee and the Gamecocks will tell us a lot about the team’s tournament potential. Quite frankly, UCLA and South Carolina are head and shoulders above everyone else.

The Final Four will likely still be a steep, although not impossible, hill to climb and several things need to happen to achieve this goal.

First, the draw. The picture looks bleak if the team is in the same bracket as the two best teams in the country. Assuming for the sake of argument that Southern Cal is 4th no. 1 seed, then UConn would have to be the 5th best team in order to face it. As of this moment, Texas and LSU are both probably ahead of UConn on the curve. By defeating TN at Knoxville and playing a competitive games against South Carolina on their home court the 5th overall seed is well within the realm of possibility.

Second, there must be no injuries among any of the players who are in the rotation.

Third, the team will need to have more than two scorers. The Huskies must get good shooting from Fudd, Shade, and Chen, at least one of them.

Fourth, the Huskies will have to have an inside presence, something that they lack now. We keep hoping that El Afry and Ice Brady will step up, but such is not yet the case. In the recent UCLA-Maryland game as an example Betts was unstoppable and scored 33 points with 14-15 from close to the basket. Can the Huskies bigs do any better?

In any case, hope springs eternal and we will see what happens. Go Huskies!

 

[Jonathan14]

Update. There has been a good deal of discussion on this subject in this and other threads. In my original post on December 23, I expressed skepticism about the prospects for the 2024-25 Husky team. UConn has had several more games under its belt and the regular season is well over half over, so I’m taking another look at this topic.

I agree that UCLA and South Carolina have distinguished themselves as the teams to beat this season. I think our Huskies would be the underdogs (no pun intended!) in either match-up. I'm not writing us off against South Carolina in a few weeks, as talented and well-coached as Dawn's team is, but it will take a great game and some good luck to beat SC at home.

I respectfully disagree about Notre Dame. I like our chances in a rematch, should it come. Yes, they beat us soundly when we faced them earlier this season, but that was without Azzi and Aubrey (and, yes, they were without Westbeld). But in the narratives I've read about how unstoppable they are, writers seem to overlook that they have, in fact, been stopped—twice—this season, and not by South Carolina or UCLA, but by TCU and Utah. They're a great team with tremendous talent, and I think Coach Ivey is doing a terrific job, but I think we match up well with them, especially with our full lineup.

As for Betts, she's a force to be reckoned with, and her performance yesterday was no exception. I'm unsure if you saw the game, but do you know who was guarding Betts for Maryland, at least to start? A former Husky, Amari DeBerry. As much as I loved Amari as a teammate and a person, I do think Jana and Ice, along with Sarah and Aubrey, might give Betts more of a challenge defensively. Would they stop her? I'm not sure anyone can, but they may put up more resistance. Or maybe I'm just being too optimistic.

Above all, I second your closing lines, "Hope springs eternal, and we will see what happens. Go, Huskies!"

 

[Bigboote]

Getting to the Final Four should be a steep hill to climb. If it's not, it's a down year for WCBB and probably not that much fun to watch.

All the points in the OP are valid, but open to interpretation -- half full, half empty and all that.

There are six, maybe seven if you count LSU, teams that are head and shoulders above the rest, and to go a step further, I think South Carolina and maybe UCLA are above most of those. So to make the Final Four, UConn's big challenge is going to be the round-of-eight game. That will depend strongly on the draw.

I don't think it's out of the question for UConn to get a #1 seed. I'm still not drinking the USC Kool-Aid even after they defeated UConn. I think they'll falter more than UConn will, and which winds up the higher seed will depend on the committee. Notre Dame has already lost to a couple of lower-ranked teams. They don't have a very challenging schedule the rest of the year, so are likely to win out. Again, it's up to the committee whether they've earned a #1 seed.

Yes, Betts is good, but I'd hesitate to use the Maryland game as an example. She was marked by Amari DeBerry for half the game and 6-2 Christina Dalce and 6-2 Saylor Poffenbarger for the other half. Yes, UConn can cover her way better than that with El Alfy, Brady, Strong, and maybe Griffin.

(ETA: Jonathan 14 posted while I was composing this message. I pretty much agree with that post.)

 

[Huskee11]

I don’t think anyone is unbeatable this year. UConn will have to shoot well from three to win from the Elite Eight on, possibly from the round of 16 on. There is little margin for error. But it is doable.

There is also the wild card in Aubrey. I was disappointed that she did not play against Creighton. There is still roughly two months for her to get to where she needs to be. Our current roster with her at least 90% will be a tough out.

A good draw wouldn’t hurt, preferably with USC if we are a number two. But there is a lot of basketball to play and some of these teams could show their vulnerabilities over the next six weeks.

 

[cabbie191]

I would like to be more optimistic but after watching Tennessee vs Texas and then UConn vs Creighton, it strikes me that our current ranking of 6th is quite reasonable, and if this is the case, then the Huskies will have a bit of an uphill battle to reach the FF.

Absolutely within reach if the team is playing close to its potential but alas, they have games or stretches of outings where they don’t seem to play as well as they could.

As an aside and apologies if this was addressed in the post-Creighton game thread, any insights as to why Aubrey didn’t play?

 

[Stagnant]

I think we can be better than last year’s team and still not make the final four.

 

[hookshot]

Assuming Azzi continues to make progress in getting her game back, and Aubrey progresses to make the 9 player rotation, Uconn is a bit better than either Texas or Southern Cal, questionable against ND, a stretch versus South Carolina and likely a bridge too far against UCLA. The main reason to question them against ND and SC is those teams seem to play their best in the biggest games and Uconn, not so much. The problem versus UCLA is obviously the post mis-match. The most talented line-ups that Uconn can put forth would involve only limited time from Ice and Jana, but wcould put Strong at risk of being fouled out. So Uconn would likely have to use a committee of Jana, Ice, Griffen, and Chelli, to harass and take fouls but that may not be enough anyway. I'd favor putting your best scoring lineup up out there, including Strong taking a lot to the rim and getting fouled herself. Anyway, in less they demonstrate the ability to shoot well against, high pace, high pressure opponents, we may not get see UCLA

 

[Rowdy831]

Geno really is stuck on the short group and I just don't think they are good enough with that group to beat a few teams. As I see it ND has a guard group way better than UConn so that is a tough win for the Huskies and they don't play a tall line up so you have a few teams that will be match up nightmares on the that end too.

I do think UConn has the players that can get the job done, I just don't know if they will be prepared to get the job done. It really makes it tough when your league has basically two decent teams. You never really see your limitations until SC and that is pretty late to make any meaningful changes in the lineup.

 

[Bone Dog]

Yeah, SC and UCLA look like world beaters, though for very different reasons. And yes, we lost to ND and USC. But I think we could beat either of them in a rematch, and heck, we almost beat USC the first time. So, yes, if we end up in the same regional as SC or UCLA, making it to the final four looks like a long shot.

What reason is there to hope against SC and UCLA closing everyone else out of a shot at the title? Well, for UCLA, it’s Cori and her signature tournament swoons. For whatever reason, she has not succeeded in March recently, and this is a trend that may continue. And for SC, it’s their frontcourt, which is small compared to recent years and compared to a number of their rivals. Heck, even Iowa is bigger than they are. Their hopes ride on their backcourt, which is formidable.

If anyone thinks SC can match up with UCLA in the frontcourt, then they should also think a lot of other teams can too. UConn may not be one of them as things stand right now. But things will change.

 

[BBallF]

If we are healthy, our defense is ratcheted down, we concentrate on and defer to Paige, Sarah and Azzi doing the shooting and Azzi is fully back by March which we hope and expect, we can beat anyone in a given game or two. That includes UCLA, SC, USC, ND, and anyone else. We will be a different team come March. We have to beat Tennessee though to maintain the ranking.

 

[Vowelguy]

As an aside and apologies if this was addressed in the post-Creighton game thread, any insights as to why Aubrey didn’t play?

My guess is that it was because he wants to ease her back via low-pressure situations. Additionally, he may have wanted 5 outside shooters on the floor.

 

[packwrap]

I'll wait til after TN and SC to really judge where UConn is, but we always only have to win 1 game against a good team in round of 8 to make a final 4, and have been reasonsbly persistent in doing that over the past 20 years, even with some flawed and injured teams.

I think our frontcourt against the top 7 teams will now be Aubrey/Morgan at #4 and Sarah at #5. Note: vs Creighton Geno used Paige/Azzi at #4 and Sarah at #5 for a lot of minutes.

I just assume Jana and Ice will be reserves due turnovers, slow footed defense, lack of rebounding, and poor outside shooting. They will keep developing for next year. Tall is good, but tall with bad play can't help us in 2025.

Still, with small frontcourts Geno has had success defending Griner, Boston, Cardoso, Wilson and McCowan and I trust he will have a plan to deal with Betts, Booker, Westbeld, Iriafen, Edwards, Morrow etc. Most likely just pack in the paint, and make opponents win with outside shooting like tiny Iowa did to Boston/Cardoso and SC in 2023.

We still have 2+ months til the elite 8 game. Plenty of time for Azzi and Aubrey to be game ready and for Kaitlyn, KK and Ash to up their scoring.

I still like our chances.

 

[tomcat]

Getting to the Final Four is not impossible. Gettig beyond that....well...... If UConn had a decent post presence it'd be one thing. But Jana has not progressed anywhere near as fast as we all would have liked., Not to say she won't be a player in a year or so, but she is not there yet. Ice is a mystery to me. She will make a good play and create and score on a good shot, and a minute later, do something that makes you question why she's on the floor at all. That is not how you beat Notre Dame, which still has Hidalgo (someone please convince me she is not the best player in the country), SC (land of the tall trees), or UCLA. Betts will eat them alive.

 

[Cuango]

Color me in as a “wait & see” on UCLA. Yes, they beat SC, but they haven’t really played anyone else. They played a depleted Louisville and won by 7 (to be fair, it was their first game), beat Wash. & Indiana by 11, and recently beat a decimated Maryland by 15. Sure, they are winning but they just don’t feel dominant to me. They do still have to play USC twice, MSU, & OSU, so I guess that will tell us something but I just can’t trust Close! I think in the end, her mediocrity (my opinion) as a game coach will show up at an inopportune moment and they will crash & burn!

 

[maple]

We only need to take it one game at a time come March. A lot can happen in the tournament.

Hell, a lot can happen before then.

 

[itsasport]

UConn will be a substantially better squad in two months, both individually and cohesively in team play offensively and defensively. They will improve more than the other top teams. Aubry alone will be a monumental addition.

UConn reminds me of the American rowing team in the 1936 Olympics. They would start slowly and be behind the field because they would first focus on getting into rhythm and then accelerate past the other boats.

UConn's singular advantage is the unrivaled coaching staff. They have the material to produce a great team. It took nearly a full season for Stewie to get it together.

 

[jdote33]

It's definitely hard to pick against Geno with Paige and Sarah. I just think for one game, they could be the two best players on the court against anyone. Nevertheless, I do have pretty big concerns, and really think there are some complete teams other than UConn. UCLA, USC, ND and SC are all great teams.
I've been high on UCLA since pre-season, and I still don't think it has really clicked for them yet. I think it's clicked for Betts and Rice which is refreshing, in that their now juniors, and had a lot of hype behind them. They are playing at a high level. But I feel like their role players who, I think are great, have been sort of hit and miss. I think if Uconn has the right strategy in terms of guarding Betts, and then players like Dugalic and Londyn Jones are off, I could definitely see UConn beating them. I do think Kiki Rice and Betts are not going to be scared of the moment or anything, and are as talented as anyone. Ultimately I do trust our role players more than any other teams (I'm bias).
USC has been really good this season, but they have had some clunky offensive performances. I do think they present a big challenge to UConn in that you can always have athletic, smart players on our two best players. Juju and Kennedy Smith are taller, and physically bigger than Paige. Marshall and Iriafen are taller and just as athletic as Sarah. They are another team with role players who have stepped up all year. Juju can definitely shoot them out of a game, and Iriafen can as well for that matter. I would be fairly confident if we rematched.
ND- To me they are the scariest team in the field. We've lost to them 3 straight times. They are 8 deep but the starting 5 is so talented and know how to play. Citron sometimes can be off as far as shooting. They don't have the 3 pt weapons UConn has. Still it would be my least favorite matchup.
SC- I'm about to watch the Tenn game as a treat after a long day. They obviously play as a complete team, with several players that can step up. They are probably the best team defensively, and have the most experience. I'm pretty sure we've lost to them like 5 straight, which brings me pain to even type. Unlike ND and USC who I feel have perfect defensive matchups for our stars, I actually don't think they have the best matchups for Paige and Sarah. I guess we will see in February. Even though they are not my favorite team to watch, Staley is one of the few coaches that really finds a way to let everybody eat. I mean of course with reason, but everyone just kinda plays there game. I'm sure they each want a bigger role, but they all look comfortable playing their own game.
Which kinda brings me back to UConn and my biggest fear with the team. I don't think everyone is playing their game. Ashlynn had an amazing freshman year, and stepped up against Iowa State. I know Azzi's back, but she is still getting significant minutes. When she's on the floor, sometimes you don't notice her, unless she flies to grab a rebound. But she doesn't seem to be looked for as a scorer anymore. Ice and Jana... Very similar. They are both in and out of the rotation. And when they do get in, they do not get post feeds consistently. So in my opinion, players who are truly playing their game - Sarah, Paige, KK. Players who are close to playing their game but still a little bit unsure of there spots - KC and Azzi.

 

[Bone Dog]

UConn will be a substantially better squad in two months, both individually and cohesively in team play offensively and defensively. They will improve more than the other top teams.

I think this is accurate. I don’t know if it will be enough to overtake SC or UCLA, but UConn is very likely to improve more than they will.

In fact, I suspect UCLA peaked around the end of December and SC peaked about two weeks ago. The challenge for each of them is to sustain this current peak during the tougher conference schedules ahead.

I have a bit more confidence in Dawn’s ability to keep her team motivated. She has the advantage of a tradition and team culture she’s built over almost two decades to inspire her kids.

Cori is more making it up as she goes. Something similar is likely true for USC as well. They may have peaked in the first half of their game against us and have been moving more or less sideways ever since.

Texas appears to be peaking right now, but they could get even better.

LSU appears to be already declining, judging from the last few games. I wonder if Kim can turn it around.

For UConn, by contrast, in addition to several rookies who are clearly still growing their games, even the main rotation players are still fitting their games to each other and to Geno’s system. As good as Sarah already is, I don’t think we’ve seen everything this season holds in store for her. I expect to see a couple of 30 point games as well as even more defensive mastery. Azzi also seems to be working to bring her full arsenal together. Ash KK and Kaitlyn also are likely to have more to show us in the coming couple months. Does Ash have a 30 point game in her? And I haven’t said anything about Aubrey yet, who may or may not return to form.

And here’s the most uncanny possibility: even Paige may still have another level to take her game to. Picture that!

It’s a hallmark of Geno’s teams that they look much different in March than they did in January. Only time will tell if this difference will be enough this season.

 

[The deacon]

In fact, I suspect UCLA peaked around the end of December and SC peaked about two weeks ago.

An interesting supposition, and one that I'm sure all of our BYers would hope comes to pass. I suspect neither team has close to its peak, especially South Carolina. We'll see...

I'm with you that Geno's teams generally ride an upward trajectory until well into the tournament, and probably will again.

For those on this thread who are looking past Notre Dame, beware the Irish.

 

[ConnMotors]

Would it have been awesome for our team if Edwards had taken her Covid year. Aaliyah at 5, Sarah at 4, Paige at 3, Azzi at 2 then Chen at the lead. Plus an awesome set of reserves.

 

[ConnMotors]

As for this years final four staying in the 6 hole is the perfect spot. We would avoid UCLA and South Carolina until the Final Four. An Elite Eight game against Southern Cal, Texas or Notre Dame is winnable.

 

[Bone Dog]

An interesting supposition, and one that I'm sure all of our BYers would hope comes to pass. I suspect neither team has close to its peak, especially South Carolina. We'll see...

I'm with you that Geno's teams generally ride an upward trajectory until well into the tournament, and probably will again.

For those on this thread who are looking past Notre Dame, beware the Irish.

Just to be clear, SC’s current peak is more than enough to win an NC. Same for UCLA. The question is whether they can sustain it. Maybe I should have said ‘plateau-ed’ instead of ‘peaked.’ Their current plateaus are really high. And obviously my assessment is merely an ‘eyeball’ test, so disagreement is welcome.

 

[oldude]

As for this years final four staying in the 6 hole is the perfect spot. We would avoid UCLA and South Carolina until the Final Four. An Elite Eight game against Southern Cal, Texas or Notre Dame is winnable.

The more I see ND play, the more I’m convinced they have the best starting 5 in WBB, now that Westbeld is back. Whether they can match up with SC’s depth or Betts size remains to be seen. As for UConn, Geno may need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to make it to another Final Four……..just like last season.

 

[Bone Dog]

The more I see ND play, the more I’m convinced they have the best starting 5 in WBB, now that Westbeld is back. Whether they can match up with SC’s depth or Betts size remains to be seen

I’m with you on this assessment. A lot depends on Westbeld’s return to form, and Koval’s further development. But all the signs look positive for them. Another way to put it: ND hasn’t peaked yet.