Final BE OOC thread 25/26 | The Boneyard

Final BE OOC thread 25/26

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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The other thread got closed and there are still seven games so we can finish here.

Torvik tournament percentages:

UConn: 100%
St. John's: 99.2%
Seton Hall: 53.4%
Villanova: 53.3%
Butler: 29.9%
Creighton: 16.4%
Providence: 2.1%

The other four are under 1%.

NET rankings this morning:

UConn (7)
St. John's (23)
Villanova (36)
Seton Hall (37)
Butler (46)
Creighton (79)
Providence (93)
Georgetown (111)
Xavier (137)
DePaul (147)
Marquette (173)

Villanova is playing Wisconsin in Milwaukee tomorrow. A win there IMO would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Seton Hall is playing Providence on the road. Similarly, a win there would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Those are the two scenarios we need to root for.

Saturday, I would root for St. John's over Kentucky, Butler over Northwestern, Georgetown over Xavier, and Creighton over Marquette.
 
I did Torvik's team cast for the following teams (for just getting in) and here are results (I had all teams going 0-4 against UConn and St. John's for worst case scenario):

Villanova: including a loss to Wisconsin and loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals, they were the last team in at 20-12 (12-8).
Seton Hall: including a loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals (and loss to Providence tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (11-9)
Butler: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals (and loss to Northwestern tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (13-7)
Creighton: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, they were the third to last team in at 20-12 (14-6)
Providence: is screwed. With a loss to Georgetown in the BET quarterfinals, Providence needs to go 23-9 (16-4) with a home win over St. John's to get in. This is the one prediction I think is harsh, but it's over for them.
 
shizzle787 said:
I did Torvik's team cast for the following teams (for just getting in) and here are results (I had all teams going 0-4 against UConn and St. John's for worst case scenario):

Villanova: including a loss to Wisconsin and loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals, they were the last team in at 20-12 (12-8).
Seton Hall: including a loss to Butler in BET quarterfinals (and loss to Providence tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (11-9)
Butler: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals (and loss to Northwestern tomorrow), they were the third to last team in at 21-11 (13-7)
Creighton: including a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, they were the third to last team in at 20-12 (14-6)
Providence: is screwed. With a loss to Georgetown in the BET quarterfinals, Providence needs to go 23-9 (16-4) with a home win over St. John's to get in. This is the one prediction I think is harsh, but it's over for them.
Expand ...
Curious about GTown. I would think they would have a better shot than Providence.
 
If St. John's wins out, the team cast still has the Johnies as the best #2 seed.

If we go 18-2 (with losses to St. John's and Seton Hall on the road) and win the BET, we are the #2 1 seed.

If we go 18-2 and lose in the BET final to St. John's, we are the #4 1 seed.

Overall, this tracks with my thinking that we can lose three more games max and get a one seed.
 
.-.
shizzle787 said:
If St. John's wins out, the team cast still has the Johnies as the best #2 seed.

If we go 18-2 (with losses to St. John's and Seton Hall on the road) and win the BET, we are the #2 1 seed.

If we go 18-2 and lose in the BET final to St. John's, we are the #4 1 seed.

Overall, this tracks with my thinking that we can lose three more games max and get a one seed.
Expand ...
I said earlier in the week that we need 20 BE wins between the regular season and BET to lock up a #1 seed. Seems Torvik agrees with me.
 
Georgetown: assuming a loss to Nova in BET quarterfinals, they would be first team to get bye by going.....25-7 (17-3). To be fair, I did not put margin of victory in and this seems off.
 
Though people seem to think the BE is down, it is actually slightly better than last year % wise and in Torvik. I see a different trend no one is talking about: the original six eastern schools are performing at a high level overall and the five western (and arguably lesser brands) are struggling- which if reversed would be a huge problem.

East:
UConn (potential #1 seed)
St. John's (top 25 team)
Nova (bubble team)
Seton Hall (bubble team)
Georgetown (wrong side of bubble but respectable)
Providence (wrong side of bubble but respectable- needs new coach)

West:
Butler (bubble team)
Creighton (bubble team)
Xavier (stink)
Marquette (stink)
DePaul (stink)
 
shizzle787 said:
The other thread got closed and there are still seven games so we can finish here.

Torvik tournament percentages:

UConn: 100%
St. John's: 99.2%
Seton Hall: 53.4%
Villanova: 53.3%
Butler: 29.9%
Creighton: 16.4%
Providence: 2.1%

The other four are under 1%.

NET rankings this morning:

UConn (7)
St. John's (23)
Villanova (36)
Seton Hall (37)
Butler (46)
Creighton (79)
Providence (93)
Georgetown (111)
Xavier (137)
DePaul (147)
Marquette (173)

Villanova is playing Wisconsin in Milwaukee tomorrow. A win there IMO would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Seton Hall is playing Providence on the road. Similarly, a win there would put their tourney odds over 60%.

Those are the two scenarios we need to root for.

Saturday, I would root for St. John's over Kentucky, Butler over Northwestern, Georgetown over Xavier, and Creighton over Marquette.
Expand ...
did anyone other than UConn neat a top 25 team this year?
 
.-.
shizzle787 said:
Though people seem to think the BE is down, it is actually slightly better than last year % wise and in Torvik. I see a different trend no one is talking about: the original six eastern schools are performing at a high level overall and the five western (and arguably lesser brands) are struggling- which if reversed would be a huge problem.

East:
UConn (potential #1 seed)
St. John's (top 25 team)
Nova (bubble team)
Seton Hall (bubble team)
Georgetown (wrong side of bubble but respectable)
Providence (wrong side of bubble but respectable- needs new coach)

West:
Butler (bubble team)
Creighton (bubble team)
Xavier (stink)
Marquette (stink)
DePaul (stink)
Expand ...
Marquette and Creighton are way down this season. We went from St. John's, Creighton, Marquette, and Xavier being teams who could make noise after UConn to just St. John's now. It looks like the only other team who could possibly make noise this season is Seton Hall, they're physically tiny but they play a difficult brand of basketball to play against. Nova is much improved because Neptune is gone but I still think they're at least a year away from being a legitimate factor nationally. Willard will turn them around and make them a national factor though, IMO.
 
I’m not as certain about Villanova being a bubble team as you are. I thing wrong side. They played pretty soft non-conference schedule and didn’t just lose their game to Michigan but got pasted. They would need to beat us or maybe the Johnnies at least once. Wisconsin is just not that good. Beating them is like beating any run of the mill team. They also got pasted when they played BYU and Nebraska, the 2 best teams on their non-league slate. If Villanova loses they might as well start trying to make plans for the NIT or Crown.
 
freescooter said:
I’m not as certain about Villanova being a bubble team as you are. I thing wrong side. They played pretty soft non-conference schedule and didn’t just lose their game to Michigan but got pasted. They would need to beat us or maybe the Johnnies at least once. Wisconsin is just not that good. Beating them is like beating any run of the mill team. They also got pasted when they played BYU and Nebraska, the 2 best teams on their non-league slate. If Villanova loses they might as well start trying to make plans for the NIT or Crown.
Expand ...
Villanova didn't play Nebraska and they didn't get pasted by BYU, they lost by 5.
 
shizzle787 said:
The other thread got closed and there are still seven games so we can finish here.

Torvik tournament percentages:

UConn: 100%
St. John's: 99.2%
Seton Hall: 53.4%
Villanova: 53.3%
Butler: 29.9%
Creighton: 16.4%
Providence: 2.1%

The other four are under 1%.
Expand ...
So Xavier is under 1%? I guess Creighton really did steal their NCAA Tournament bid last night. 😂
 
.-.
BFieldHusky said:
Closer to 4 to 5.
Expand ...
Uhhhhhh - did you even look at the Torvik %'s?

The Nova Wisconsin game is a fair matchup to see what chance our bubble teams have of actually being tourney worthy. Would seem they fall off with a loss.
 
RuffRuff said:
Uhhhhhh - did you even look at the Torvik %'s?

The Nova Wisconsin game is a fair matchup to see what chance our bubble teams have of actually being tourney worthy. Would seem they fall off with a loss.
Expand ...
As of now, even if they lose that game and the 4/5 game in the BET, they would need to go 12-8 in league play to get in. Not impossible. A win tomorrow night, and IMO Villanova has greater than 60% odds to get in.
 
They gotta get to 68 teams somehow. Even if nearly every Big 10 and SEC school makes it there are still holes to fill. Mediocre Big East teams making it should be expected
 
RuffRuff said:
Uhhhhhh - did you even look at the Torvik %'s?

The Nova Wisconsin game is a fair matchup to see what chance our bubble teams have of actually being tourney worthy. Would seem they fall off with a loss.
Expand ...
I think the BE is getting 4 in for sure. Depending on the right circumstances, 5 is in play.
 
.-.
superjohn said:
Villanova didn't play Nebraska and they didn't get pasted by BYU, they lost by 5.
Expand ...
I was talking about Wisconsin, not Villanova. Someone posted that the Villanova game with Wisconsin would be important to getting them into the tournament. I think Wisconsin is at best a mediocre team. Beating them just means one pretty middle of the road team beat another middle of the road team. Villanova got pasted by Michigan.
 
freescooter said:
I was talking about Wisconsin, not Villanova. Someone posted that the Villanova game with Wisconsin would be important to getting them into the tournament. I think Wisconsin is at best a mediocre team. Beating them just means one pretty middle of the road team beat another middle of the road team. Villanova got pasted by Michigan.
Expand ...
So did Gonzaga and Alabama. Doesn't mean they shouldn't get in the tournament.
 
freescooter said:
Yeah. NC State isn’t close to being ranked anymore. That’s kind of like saying Arch Manning was winning the Heisman until the games started.
Expand ...
Not true. NC State lost by one to Kansas a few days ago. They are one point away from being ranked so yes they are close to being ranked.
 
BFieldHusky said:
So did Gonzaga and Alabama. Doesn't mean they shouldn't get in the tournament.
Expand ...
I didn’t say it did. I said Wisconsin was a middle of the road team and beating them doesn’t add anything significant to Villanova’s resume. My view is neither Villanova nor Wisconsin are any good. The winner probably has a better shot at getting a coveted 12 seed than the loser. That’s it.
 
shizzle787 said:
As of now, even if they lose that game and the 4/5 game in the BET, they would need to go 12-8 in league play to get in. Not impossible. A win tomorrow night, and IMO Villanova has greater than 60% odds to get in.
Expand ...
There is no world in which Villanova makes the Tournament by losing to Wisconsin, going 12-8 in the BE and not winning a single game in the BET.
 
.-.
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