Final BE OOC thread 25/26

[BFieldHusky]

I was talking about Wisconsin, not Villanova. Someone posted that the Villanova game with Wisconsin would be important to getting them into the tournament. I think Wisconsin is at best a mediocre team. Beating them just means one pretty middle of the road team beat another middle of the road team. Villanova got pasted by Michigan.

So did Gonzaga and Alabama. Doesn't mean they shouldn't get in the tournament.

 

[freescooter]

Butler beat Virginia; Seton Hall beat NC State when they were ranked

Yeah. NC State isn’t close to being ranked anymore. That’s kind of like saying Arch Manning was winning the Heisman until the games started.

 

[shizzle787]

Yeah. NC State isn’t close to being ranked anymore. That’s kind of like saying Arch Manning was winning the Heisman until the games started.

Not true. NC State lost by one to Kansas a few days ago. They are one point away from being ranked so yes they are close to being ranked.

 

[freescooter]

So did Gonzaga and Alabama. Doesn't mean they shouldn't get in the tournament.

I didn’t say it did. I said Wisconsin was a middle of the road team and beating them doesn’t add anything significant to Villanova’s resume. My view is neither Villanova nor Wisconsin are any good. The winner probably has a better shot at getting a coveted 12 seed than the loser. That’s it.

 

[PRHusky]

As of now, even if they lose that game and the 4/5 game in the BET, they would need to go 12-8 in league play to get in. Not impossible. A win tomorrow night, and IMO Villanova has greater than 60% odds to get in.

There is no world in which Villanova makes the Tournament by losing to Wisconsin, going 12-8 in the BE and not winning a single game in the BET.

 

[businesslawyer]

I was talking about Wisconsin, not Villanova. Someone posted that the Villanova game with Wisconsin would be important to getting them into the tournament. I think Wisconsin is at best a mediocre team. Beating them just means one pretty middle of the road team beat another middle of the road team. Villanova got pasted by Michigan.

Please stop. Everyone is being pasted by Michigan right now.

 

[shizzle787]

There is no world in which Villanova makes the Tournament by losing to Wisconsin, going 12-8 in the BE and not winning a single game in the BET.

There is actually as they would have 20 wins and a really good SOS.

 

[auror]

I think the BE is getting 4 in for sure. Depending on the right circumstances, 5 is in play.

I definitely wouldn't say for sure. Too many of the decent teams failed to accumulate wins. I think St. John's is too good not to get in, and Seton Hall has put themselves in a decent position. 3 seems almost a lock.

Assuming Nova loses to Wisconsin in Milwaukee, then entering league play:
Nova is 0-3 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the high 30s.
Butler is 1-3 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the 50s
Creighton is 0-5 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the 50s
Providence is 0-5 in first 2 quads, pred avg int he 70s,
Georgetown and Xavier also 1-3 in first 2 quads.

Those 6 teams have a single Quad 1 win between them. One. And the best 4 of them have a single Q1 or Q2 win combined. Combined! Nova, Butler, Creighton, and Providence went a combined 0-5 in Q2 in non-conference.

If the teams that are 0-5 in the first 2 quads end up being the teams that rise up into the 4th/5th spots in the conference standings, they might've had too much ground to make up. That's what happened in '24.

 

[shizzle787]

I definitely wouldn't say for sure. Too many of the decent teams failed to accumulate wins. I think St. John's is too good not to get in, and Seton Hall has put themselves in a decent position. 3 seems almost a lock.

Assuming Nova losses to Wisconsin in Milwaukee, then entering league play:
Nova is 0-3 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the high 30s.
Butler is 1-3 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the 50s
Creighton is 0-5 in first 2 quads, pred avg in the 50s
Providence is 0-5 in first 2 quads, pred avg int he 70s,
Georgetown and Xavier also 1-3 in first 2 quads.

Those 5 teams have a single Quad 1 win. One.

If the teams that are 0-5 in the first 2 quads end up being the teams that rise up into the 4th/5th spots in the conference standings, they might've had too much ground to make up. That's what happened in '24.

Providence is done, and Creighton has a lot of ground to make up.

 

[superjohn]

Please stop. Everyone is being pasted by Michigan right now.

He's even making up Big East losses now and taking away wins the Big East had over ranked opponents.

Everyone knows the conference is really down this year but freescooter is going to let you know it's even more down than we think by inventing stuff.

 

[shizzle787]

He's even making up Big East losses now and taking away wins the Big East had over ranked opponents.

Everyone knows the conference is really down this year but freescooter is going to let you know it's even more down than we think by inventing stuff.

It's not even down from last year. Our OOC winning % is higher and our Torvik score is higher. It's two from two years ago.

 

[freescooter]

Not true. NC State lost by one to Kansas a few days ago. They are one point away from being ranked so yes they are close to being ranked.

LOL. Stop it. If you want to be ranked your best win can’t be Boise State. They are 0-teams people have actually heard of. Though maybe that blowout of Liberty will help them. Yikes!

 

[auror]

Providence is done, and Creighton has a lot of ground to make up.

And there's a reasonable argument that those are the 3rd and 4th most talented teams in the conference, so them finishing 4th and 5th (or higher) is certainly in the realm of possibility. Creighton looked the part last night.

 

[shizzle787]

And there's a reasonable argument that those are the 3rd and 4th most talented teams in the conference, so them finishing 4th and 5th (or higher) is certainly in the realm of possibility. Creighton looked the part last night.

Possibly, but Kim English guarantees Providence will suck. He stinks. Creighton is going to need to go at least 14-6 in conference play to have a chance at a bid. That is going to be tough for them.

Creighton also played Xavier, who stinks.

 

[auror]

Possibly, but Kim English guarantees Providence will suck. He stinks. Creighton is going to need to go at least 14-6 in conference play to have a chance at a bid. That is going to be tough for them.

That's my point. That's why I don't think the conference is guaranteed to get 4 bids. There's a decent chance it shakes out that way, but there are an unfortunate number of poor scenarios.

 

[shizzle787]

That's my point. That's why I don't think the conference is guaranteed to get 4 bids. There's a decent chance it shakes out that way, but there are an unfortunate number of poor scenarios.

I think the number is between 3-5 with the most likely scenario being 4 (which I would take for a down year).

 

[superjohn]

It's not even down from last year. Our OOC winning % is higher and our Torvik score is higher. It's two from two years ago.

UConn is a lot better than last season but Creighton, Marquette, and Xavier are way down. We'll see where St. John's is by the end of the year but it's extremely unlikely they only lose 1 more game the rest of the regular season and through the conference tournament earning another #2 seed.

I don't see a major improvement from Seton Hall, an improvement from Nova, and an improvement for Butler balancing that out.

 

[freescooter]

Let’s try this one more time. I don’t think Villanova is a tournament team without beating UConn and St John’s in the conference. Why? Because their non-conference schedule was filled with dreck. La Salle, Temple, Queens, Duquesne, Penn and Pitt. They also played 2 ranked teams and went 0-2 with a five point loss to BYU and a blowout loss to Michigan. They have a mediocre Wisconsin left. There are very few good wins remaining in the NBE other than the 4 I noted. In my view Wisconsin is Villanova of the Big 10. Except playing in the Big they have more opportunities for big wins. I doubt they get enough but a road with more chances than Villanova. So I doubt this game is any more than a blip on either teams’ resume for the tournament but if Villanova loses its chances are more badly damaged of the 2.

Is that clear, John?

 

[shizzle787]

Let’s try this one more time. I don’t think Villanova is a tournament team without beating UConn and St John’s in the conference. Why? Because their non-conference schedule was filled with dreck. La Salle, Temple, Queens, Duquesne, Penn and Pitt. They also played 2 ranked teams and went 0-2 with a five point loss to BYU and a blowout loss to Michigan. They have a mediocre Wisconsin left. There are very few good wins remaining in the NBE other than the 4 I noted. In my view Wisconsin is Villanova of the Big 10. Except playing in the Big they have more opportunities for big wins. I doubt they get enough but a road with more chances than Villanova. So I doubt this game is any more than a blip on either teams’ resume for the tournament but if Villanova loses its chances are more badly damaged of the 2.

Is that clear, John?

Villanova's non-conference SOS is 203 (aka very middle of the pack not dreck as you pronounce). They played 4 P4 teams out of 11 which is better than a lot of other bubble teams.

 

[HooperScooper]

Article from CBS Sports on the topic. One poster (who shall remain nameless) won't like it but I like to be a realist and also understand overall what is going on in college basketball. BE has a winning record against the ACC and Big 12. No surprises in here. Seton Hall the biggest surprise team and Marquette the biggest disappointment.

College basketball conference rankings: Big 12 tops high-major hierarchy

With nonconference play winding down, here's how the high-major conference hierarchy is shaping up

www.cbssports.com

This video was in the sidebar. Robbie Hummel and Chris Hassel discuss UConn. Hummel is a big believer in the Huskies. Only a minute and a half long.

Huddle Up...Uconn Is The Beast Of The Big East Stream of NCAA Basketball

Huddle Up...Uconn Is The Beast Of The Big East

www.cbssports.com

 

[businesslawyer]

Let’s try this one more time. I don’t think Villanova is a tournament team without beating UConn and St John’s in the conference. Why? Because their non-conference schedule was filled with dreck. La Salle, Temple, Queens, Duquesne, Penn and Pitt. They also played 2 ranked teams and went 0-2 with a five point loss to BYU and a blowout loss to Michigan. They have a mediocre Wisconsin left. There are very few good wins remaining in the NBE other than the 4 I noted. In my view Wisconsin is Villanova of the Big 10. Except playing in the Big they have more opportunities for big wins. I doubt they get enough but a road with more chances than Villanova. So I doubt this game is any more than a blip on either teams’ resume for the tournament but if Villanova loses its chances are more badly damaged of the 2.

Is that clear, John?

Come on. You have been on this board long enough to realize that all bubble team’s records look like dreck to us. Unless you’re going to compare them to other bubble teams, which is silly to do at this point in the year, pointing out their résumé’s flaws is utterly pointless.

 

[karstenkibbe]

Villanova's non-conference SOS is 203 (aka very middle of the pack not dreck as you pronounce). They played 4 P4 teams out of 11 which is better than a lot of other bubble teams.

I prefer the more descriptive Yiddish term of shtik dreck to describe Nova’s non-con SOS.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I think the number is between 3-5 with the most likely scenario being 4 (which I would take for a down year).

I think a few miracles are necessary to get five. Four is possible but it well could be a tossup between three and four.

 

[Scottobot]

My prediction is just 3 teams, UConn, St John’s, Seton Hall. Maybe if Nova beats UConn and St John’s and doesn’t have any more bad losses they can make it.

 

[superjohn]

My prediction is just 3 teams, UConn, St John’s, Seton Hall. Maybe if Nova beats UConn and St John’s and doesn’t have any more bad losses they can make it.

This sounds right. Teams didn't do enough out of conference and they're going to beat up on each other.