Plebe
La verdad no peca pero incomoda
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I haven't seen it widely advertised, but at halftime of tomorrow's UConn-Oregon game the committee will give their first "top 16" reveal.
It'll be interesting to catch a glimpse of the committee's thinking, particularly when it comes to how they weigh teams with fewer quality wins and fewer losses against those with more quality wins but more losses (or losses to lower-rated teams).
The committee's top 4 seeds, as of tonight, are almost certainly:
I believe that the following teams will be on the #2 and #3 seed lines (listed here alphabetically):
#2 line (in alphabetical order): Maryland, NC State, Stanford, UConn
#3 line (in alphabetical order): Gonzaga, Iowa, Oregon State, UCLA
As for the #4 line, I believe Indiana, Mississippi State and Northwestern will be in the 13-15 range. The #16 spot -- the last coveted hosting berth -- is really up for grabs. I could see it going to any of the following: Arizona, Arizona State, DePaul, Florida State, LSU, Missouri State. Most likely, either Arizona or DePaul.
Please argue away
It'll be interesting to catch a glimpse of the committee's thinking, particularly when it comes to how they weigh teams with fewer quality wins and fewer losses against those with more quality wins but more losses (or losses to lower-rated teams).
The committee's top 4 seeds, as of tonight, are almost certainly:
- South Carolina. Although I personally think Baylor is the best team in the country, there's no doubt SC has the best résumé. The one loss to Indiana is greatly outweighed by 2 wins over the RPI top 10, 4 wins over the top 25, and 9 wins over the top 50. No other team comes close to that.
- Baylor. Despite a weak OOC schedule (#112), Baylor has done enough to secure the #2 overall seed for now, with the big road win at UConn anchoring a résumé that includes 3 top-25 wins and 7 top-50 wins.
- Louisville. The neutral-court win over Oregon headlines a résumé that, like Baylor's, includes 3 top-25 wins and 7 top-50 wins, with the only blemish being the road loss at RPI #25 Ohio State.
- Oregon. Despite losses to Louisville and Arizona State, Oregon's win over Stanford and sweep of Oregon State, as part of 7 top-50 wins, give the Ducks an edge over other contenders.
I believe that the following teams will be on the #2 and #3 seed lines (listed here alphabetically):
#2 line (in alphabetical order): Maryland, NC State, Stanford, UConn
#3 line (in alphabetical order): Gonzaga, Iowa, Oregon State, UCLA
As for the #4 line, I believe Indiana, Mississippi State and Northwestern will be in the 13-15 range. The #16 spot -- the last coveted hosting berth -- is really up for grabs. I could see it going to any of the following: Arizona, Arizona State, DePaul, Florida State, LSU, Missouri State. Most likely, either Arizona or DePaul.
Please argue away
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