I currently have:
Montana St. over K St.
Kent St. to S16
Utah St. to S16
Pitt to S16
as the biggest upsets, plus a few more first rounders.
One of the last four in usually makes a sweet 16 run, or at least wins the first round game and I'm not confident in Iowa St. at all, and to a certain extent Xavier as well. I also like Kent St.'s ability to stay close against great competition and I don't think Indiana even qualifies as that at times. Utah St. can score as well as anyone in the country when they're on and Mizzou plays zero defense. And a 2 seed usually falls before the S16, I think Zona could be ripe for that. Of course those are the biggest ones I have so far, less likely than the Furman's or VCU's of the first round, but you gotta take some risks in larger pools!