Favorite First Round Picks?

[BleedHuskyBlu]

Thought I would get away from the stressful UConn talk for a second

Any upsets you feel really comfortable about? Either outright or to cover the spread?

So far I like Furman +5.5 and to win outright

Also hoping Oral Robert can beat Duke hopefully the 7’5 guy can slow Dukes big men down.

And if Memphis can get past FAU I like them a lot vs Purdue

 

[navery12]

Furman to the Sweet 16 (and over Charleston to get there)

I wanted to pick Oral Roberts and Drake but didn't love their 1st round matchups

 

[bendm]

Charleston over SDSU
Louisiana over Tennesse
VCU over SMU

 

[Ripper32]

VCU over St. Mary's. They can apply enough ball pressure and score enough to beat SMU.

I love Memphis over the FAU Owls. FAU is undersized aside from Goldin at the 5. Williams and Davis are just too much & the tigers have the better supporting cast.

UCSB could keep it close against Baylor. They play slow and their frontcourt isn't bad.

Also, like SDSU to handle CoC. They are so stingy defensively.

 

[BleedHuskyBlu]

Charleston over SDSU
Louisiana over Tennesse
VCU over SMU

After watching St. Mary break the press vs BYU and Gonzaga in the WCC, VCU should have the recipe to beat them. Mahoney is a great scoring guard but he was getting flustered with the press

 

[MrSec224]

After watching SMU break the press vs BYU and Gonzaga in the WCC, VCU should have the recipe to beat them. Mahoney is a great scoring guard but he was getting flustered with the press

Only problem is if VCU can score enough to win. Take the under in this one

 

[shizzle787]

Pick the upsets on Friday. Thursday usually goes roughly chalk. Friday is when the upsets happen.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Charleston tops the list of 12-5 upsets for me. Boise State over Northwestern. USC over Michigan State. Utah State over Mizzou.

I had PC beating UK, but with the Cooley talk, I'm not sold now.

Down the road I like TCU beating Gonzaga.

 

[UConNick]

I know it may not be the “hip” thing to mention on this site right now, but every year I gather a bunch of key stats (eFG%, 3pt defense, tempo, TO%, etc.) and assess who are the most likely upset picks. Granted, even the ones that look “good” are still going to be hard games to win, but I’ve nailed at least one every year based off those interpreting those metrics. My biggest claim to fame was calling Abilene Christian over Texas to my friend group in 2021.

All that is a preface to say I don’t see a bunch of statistical conclusions to draw this season, at least compared to the last couple of years I’ve done this. Drake over Miami is the main one I’ve seen, and one I’m going to play a lot, but after that… there’s a little bit of evidence for Kennesaw over Xavier, and surprisingly, GCU over Gonzaga, though nothing even close enough for me to be confident with staking my rep on. Games just may be closer than everyone thinks. Charleston and Pittsburgh (if they win) were also possible.

 

[kobebeanbryant]

I like Kent State to sweet 16. Memphis as well (and potentially further).

 

[HeGotGame]

Pick the upsets on Friday. Thursday usually goes roughly chalk. Friday is when the upsets happen.

Based on what?

The last two years day 1 had more upsets than day 2

 

[Austin316]

Charleston tops the list of 12-5 upsets for me. Boise State over Northwestern. USC over Michigan State. Utah State over Mizzou.

I had PC beating UK, but with the Cooley talk, I'm not sold now.

Down the road I like TCU beating Gonzaga.

I like TCU too.

 

[CTBasketball]

Drake.

 

[auror]

Drake.

If Norchad Omier doesn't play (and it's looking like even if he plays he'll be well below 100%), definitely take Drake. Drake performed really well away from home against good teams this year, and Miami is susceptible because their D is so bad.

 

[auror]

I don't know if Montana St beats Kansas St, but I like them to cover and I think they're live. K St is ripe for upset. - No pre-season expectations, member of hyped conference, unbalanced team (mediocre D), one and done in conference tournament, they foul a ton and MtSt draws a ton of fouls so they should have a way to generate easy points, K St best D component is 3 point arc D but MtSt ignores the arc.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

I don't know if Montana St beats Kansas St, but I like them to cover and I think they're live. K St is ripe for upset. - No pre-season expectations, member of hyped conference, unbalanced team (mediocre D), one and done in conference tournament, they foul a ton and MtSt draws a ton of fouls so they should have a way to generate easy points, K St best D component is 3 point arc D but MtSt ignores the arc.

How we aren’t a 3 over K State boggles my mind

 

[That Guy]

Furman over Virginia
UCSB over Baylor
NC State over Creighton
Utah State over Mizzou
Drake over Miami
Boise State over Northwestern

The 8s vs. 9s you might as well flip a coin for all of them

 

[Ripper32]

Hold off on the drake celebrations.

 

[Billy Jack]

I still like Drake to pull the annual 12 over 5 upset over Miami. Omier is not 100%. He’s Miami’s leading rebounder and they don’t have much size without him.

Kentucky (6) also has injury problems. You don’t want to lose your senior PG going into the tournament. I expect them to go down to Providence (11)

Penn State (10) over Texas A&M (7)
Utah State (10) over Missouri (7)

 

[Billy Jack]

I don't know if Montana St beats Kansas St, but I like them to cover and I think they're live. K St is ripe for upset. - No pre-season expectations, member of hyped conference, unbalanced team (mediocre D), one and done in conference tournament, they foul a ton and MtSt draws a ton of fouls so they should have a way to generate easy points, K St best D component is 3 point arc D but MtSt ignores the arc.

I’m looking for K State to go out in the round of 32 as well. In addition to everything you mentioned, they turn the ball over a lot (14.5 per game). That’s the kind of team that can beat themselves in a close tournament game. That first round loss in the B12 tournament? Sure enough - 19 turnovers.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I still like Drake to pull the annual 12 over 5 upset over Miami. Omier is not 100%. He’s Miami’s leading rebounder and they don’t have much size without him.

Kentucky (6) also has injury problems. You don’t want to lose your senior PG going into the tournament. I expect them to go down to Providence (11)

Penn State (10) over Texas A&M (7)
Utah State (10) over Missouri (7)

Not only do I have Drake over Miami, but I also have Kent State over Indiana and then beating Drake to go to the S16.

A couple reasons why Kent State is my team this year:

• Senderoff is one of the most under-heralded coaches in the nation: .500 or better in each of his eleven seasons at Kent State
• Their backcourt is old (two fifth-year seniors) and balanced
  • Fifth-years Sincere Carry (17.6p, 4.9a, 1.7s, 4.3 FTAs) and Malique Jacobs (13.0p, 3.6a, 2.7s, 5.0 FTA) can both create their own offense and are tenacious defenders.
  • Sophomore Jalen Sullinger is a lights-out three point shooter (42.9 3p%)
• They are a defense-first team that both makes it hard for teams to take good shots and they generate TOs (top-40 in both metrics).
• They have a solid rotation of four guys who play the four and five, allowing aggressive gameplay guarding Jackson-Davis, hacking him if need be (68.6 ft%)

 

[Deepster]

I am trying something for kicks.

Took every 12, 13 & 14 seed on the money line (obviously except UConn). $20.00 per bet.

Took a 3 team $25 parlay for each region. The money line on the 1, 2 and 12 seed.

If the 1s and 2s advance, 2 of the 12s win and I pop two games in the 13/14s I should make out okay and it’ll be fun to root for upsets.

 

[Ripper32]

 

[Ripper32]

In the WVU game, if Julian Reese doesn't get in foul trouble, the Terps could win. Their unit defense is above average.