Explain to Stanford, Louisville, Baylor and Maryland

[oldude]

I dont think 1 good win is going to be enough to get Louisville a #1. If SC & NCSt lose, I suspect it'll be Maryland or possibly Baylor.

If TAMU loses, they probably hold the last #1, unless NCSt wins the ACCT.

There’s a lot of dominoes involved. What if Stanford gets knocked off in the Pac12 tournament? What if UConn gets knocked off in the BE....,😫

 

[visitingcock]

Meh, 1-4 is almost no different from 5-8 THIS YEAR.

but yeah, we are not one of the 4 best

 

[oldhusky]

Last year I thought three teams were a cut above the rest of the field. This year the top 8 or so seem very tight. I was hoping if Uconn got a number one overall seed, that they might get a significantly weaker #2 seed in their region.

Then I looked at the likely #2 seeds and they all scare me about equally. If I could hand pick the #2 seed from 5-8 I don't know who I would prefer. A national champion from a #2 seed is much more likely this year than in most past tournaments IMO.

 

[Adriacus]

For the first time in years, am FAR more interested in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups than FF.

Is an Overall #1 UConn really happy if they are faced with Arkansas in the Sweet 16 and Louisville in the Elite 8?

The basketball enthusiast in me hopes for 4 solid rounds of great competition. The realist in me thinks that the Committee is more likely to create some seriously imbalanced quadrants due to their incessant politicking.

 

[Vowelguy]

There’s a lot of dominoes involved. What if Stanford gets knocked off in the Pac12 tournament? What if UConn gets knocked off in the BE....,😫

UConn, Stanford, and A&M's resumes are strong enough that a conference tournament loss is unlikely to drop them off the #1 line. And even if they do lose, Louisville ain't jumping them given the lack of high-quality ACC teams.

 

[UcMiami]

Looking at the AP ranking this week in a wide angle view I think is a pretty good indication - by wide angle I mean, not who is first or second, but how teams break into groups. Here are the point spreads in the voting:
44
16 #1 Seeds
15
67
1 #2 Seeds
29
10
65
15 #3 Seeds
54
62
What that signifies to me is the AP voters after the games on Sunday have pretty clearly defined the #1 seeds and the #2 seeds. They see a clear difference between Stanford, NC State, TA&M and Uconn as one seeds, and the universe of Baylor, Louisville, Maryland, and SC. And then they see a clear break from those 4 and the next two teams UCLA and Indiana, and another break from the rest of the teams.

Not saying AP voters are the final word, but their top ten tends to be pretty good and the way their voting has so clearly fallen into 4 sections 1-4, 5-8, 9-10, and the rest is a pretty clear indicator of consensus across 30 very diverse voters. Within each of the groups the voting is much closer except between 1 and 2, which is probably indicative of 'you are #1 until you lose' inertia more than a clear preference.

Obviously there are tournaments to play and a upset of any of the top 10 might change their position in a group or their group, but I'm not sure the top ten have so nicely grouped into 1 seeds, 2 seeds, and top 2 three seeds in a ranking at the end of a regular season before.

 

[sweetspot]

No mention of Baylor here because of their weak sked but this is a pretty good comp of UM/USC/NCSU.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Based on AP polls, South Carolina is #7 overall, that is far away from the #1 seed.

Why would an AP poll be relevant to seeding? Many of the voters spend far less time looking at resumes than does anyone on the selection committee.

 

[Plebe]

Based on AP polls, South Carolina is #7 overall, that is far away from the #1 seed.

The AP poll is entirely irrelevant to tournament seeding.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Fans of other programs and some in the Media say the same thing about UConn. Why is UConn a #1 seed as they don't pass the eye test and don't have the Strength of Schedule?

 

[oldude]

Fans of other programs and some in the Media say the same thing about UConn. Why is UConn a #1 seed as they don't pass the eye test and don't have the Strength of Schedule?

Cause it’s UConn.........

 

[bbsamjj]

UConn has a huge win (SC), one very good win (UT) and only one loss (against a top 16 team on the road). In this year, that's good enough for a #1 seed.

 

[#1florida]

Creme does not rank the teams. He tries to predict how the committee will rank the teams.
Those are very different things.

I think Creme "ranks" the teams, and wants to influence the committee. My opinion.

 

[Rocket009]

Creme does not rank the teams. He tries to predict how the committee will rank the teams.
Those are very different things.

Not really - he tries to create storylines that the ESPN crew can spend 10 minutes talking about while ignoring the game being played.

 

[Sicilian]

There are times when reading the back and forth on The Boneyard hurts my head. This is one of those times.

 

[Cuango]

Fans of other programs and some in the Media say the same thing about UConn. Why is UConn a #1 seed as they don't pass the eye test and don't have the Strength of Schedule?

Wait! How exactly does UConn not pass the eye test? What is the eye test?

 

[Centerstream]

Stanford is and neither Maryland or Louisville should be, but Baylor is the one that might deserve an explanation. The reveal was made prior to Sunday games.

Exactly who has Baylor beaten? The BIG 12 consists of one good team, a sometimes good team (WVa) and the rest of the conference. But they have Championship history so maybe they deserve a 1 seed.
But I agree that SoCar doesn't deserve to be a 1 seed but because they were everybody's preseason Number 1 team, that carries a lot of weight, especially with Creme.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Yeah, they haven't beaten anyone that strong. No wins to any Top 10 team. Same complaint Mississippi State got in 2019.

They lost to the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the nation and beat everyone below #12. 1-4 against the Top 15. No idea why we got so much flack that year given this situation, but if you're gonna follow the Mississippi State in 2018-2019 model...... sure roll with that, but in my opinion NcState deserves the last #1 seed.

 

[Alydar]

Why is Stanford included in the question? They're overall #2.

South Carolina has a far better resume than Baylor and Louisville. It's not even close. If you're just counting the number of losses, then you have no idea how resumes are evaluated.

I would give NC State the edge over SC for the last #1 seed. SC does have more Quadrant 1 wins, and NC State's two losses are "softer" than any of SC's losses, but NC State has two wins that are far better than SC's best wins.

And one of those losses was without their AA. The committee has excused losses due to injuries as long as the player was back playing. NCSt gets shuffled back by the media mostly because they play defense, which hasn't the glamour. I'll guarantee that where ever NCSt lands as a 2 the 1's coach will whine.

Creme also has rematches between SCar-NCSt and UConn-Ark. ESPN loves rematches. I don't either Stanford or Baylor played anybody outside their conferences who will make the tournament, except as a small conference champ. But I wouldn't want to play Tenn in a S16 game and then have to face Baylor in the E8 with a day's rest. Tenn would get beat but Stanford(Brink) would take a beating.

 

[Alydar]

I think Uconn..TA&M..and Stanford are a given..The last #1 I think is SC..I think they would beat both NC State and L'ville.,Yes NCState beat them but that was really early...The Aggies may be the most complete team..Good post players ..guards that can shoot..a very good defense and a great coach

I agree with who you picked but the committee has stated in the past that early season games count the same. And that loss to NCSt was at home where the Gamecocks scored 48 points. I realize they played a lot of top 50 teams but the very best teams beat them, every time. That's not a 1 seed resume. If they get one it will be for lack of anyone better, not for the season they had.

 

[Alydar]

I generally agree, although it’s unlikely that SC will be a 1 seed if they lose again in the SEC tournament. Should SC lose, I think the last #1 will be whichever team, Louisville or NC St, wins the ACC tournament.

Don't ignore Maryland if they win the B1G and SC & NCst lose again. That's the kind of team the committee loves.

 

[HuskyNan]

Guys, stop bickering. Start discussing

 

[Alydar]

You are but you didn't know you are. You keep saying Creme has no influence on the committees but without any details and evidences. Creme raises such big alarm on his bracketology in ESPN and you believe he has no influence? I don't believe it.

I'd it's been the opposite. Before Creme started meeting with some of the committee he was way off some years. But after a few sessions with the NCAA his selections almost mirrored theirs. I'd say that Creme has served as a way for the committee to lessen the shock when their picks come out. Everyone says, "they agree with Creme so they must be valid". After all, it's all just a PR gimmick designed to draw public attention.
The committee has little real power. They are bound by the rules for selection. If there is anything going on behind the scenes it's with whomever makes those Policies and Procedures. That's where the power lies.

My opinion? Any fan that thinks his/her team needs an easy path to the FF isn't rooting for a FF team.

 

[Vowelguy]

The committee has little real power. They are bound by the rules for selection. If there is anything going on behind the scenes it's with whomever makes those Policies and Procedures. That's where the power lies.

You keep saying that, but I dont understand why.
The policies and procedures are not all that restrictive.

• They say little, if anything, about how the ~32 at-large teams are chosen. That's entirely the committee.
• They say little, if anything, on how the teams are to be ranked 1-64. That's entirely the committee.
• The place they come in is during the placement of the teams in the bracket. But again, the restrictions are mostly around where members of the same conference can be placed and how early the can meet up. The only other major criteria I can think of is that they try to keep from sending a team far from home 3 years in a row. Everything else about placement is up to the committee.

 

[bballnut90]

I dont understand why people are so triggered by Creme's projections. He's making picks based on what he thinks the committee will value, not his own favorites. More importantly, he gives us content and insight that we otherwise don't have. It's not like there are people lining up to give their bracketology projections for women's basketball.

 

[Vowelguy]

I dont understand why people are so triggered by Creme's projections. He's making picks based on what he thinks the committee will value, not his own favorites. More importantly, he gives us content and insight that we otherwise don't have. It's not like there are people lining up to give their bracketology projections for women's basketball.

Bb, he’s part of the ESPN industrial complex in its efforts to destroy UConn , and he will not be stopped until all 14 SEC teams are selected for the tournament. How can you not see that?

 

[LCConnFan]

There’s a lot of dominoes involved. What if Stanford gets knocked off in the Pac12 tournament? What if UConn gets knocked off in the BE....,😫

 

[southie]

I dont think 1 good win is going to be enough to get Louisville a #1. If SC & NCSt lose, I suspect it'll be Maryland or possibly Baylor.

If TAMU loses, they probably hold the last #1, unless NCSt wins the ACCT.

As long as I've watched the women's NCAA tournament selection show, I just seem to remember them several times reward a team for winning their conference tournament (despite a lack of quality wins in the regular season) and vault them a bit too high in the seedings for my liking. To many of the past committees, it's like "what have you done for me lately?" (conference tourney championship) is more important than the body of work accomplished in the previous 3-4 months.

So, it will not surprise me to see Louisville end up as #1 seed if they beat NC State on the way to the ACC tourney championship. Granted, another team ahead of them vying for a #1 seed will need to falter in their conference tournament.

 

[UcMiami]

Everybody gets freaked out about the committee and how the seeds are going to go, but the reality is every team is going to have to play six games to win an NC and three of those games are going to be against really good teams that are playing really well themselves. Most years come down to a FF populated by 4 team from the top ten of everyone's list. Here is a decade by decade analysis of FF seeds (perfect score would be 4.0 = 4 one seeds 6.0 = 2 ones and 2 twos, or 3 ones and 1 three etc.):

1990-1999 score is 9.6, 7 years in which a seed other than a 1 or 2 made the FF and 14 non 1 or 2 seed team in the 10 years of FF

2000-2009 score is 7.2, 4 years with other than a 1 or a 2 seed, and 7 non 1 or 2 in the decade.

2010-2019 score is 7.0, 4 years with other than a 1 or 2 seed and 6 non 1 or 2 seeds in the decade.

If you throw out the worst year in each decade as an aberration (eg a #7 seed Washington taking down a 3 and a 4 and two #4 seeds taking out 2 #1s) The scores would be: 9.1/6.4/6.2

Two things, an average of 7.0/7.2 is pretty good for a 64 team tournament for a decade, and the committee has done noticeably better since 2000 than before 2000 (I might say the game has grown up.)

[7.0 = 3 #1s and #4, or 2#1s and a #2 and a #3, or 1 #1 and 3#2s]

In terms of 30 years of tournaments only 2 teams not seeded as a 1 or a 2 ever won the tournament both #3 seeds, the last time when TN got healthy and won in 1997.

Baylor in 2005, MD in 2006, and TA&M in 2011 are the only teams to win not seeded #1 since TN's win in 1997, all as a #2 seed.

 

[triaddukefan]

I guess I'm in the minority, as I don't mind Creme at all.

There’s a lot of dominoes involved. What if Stanford gets knocked off in the Pac12 tournament? What if UConn gets knocked off in the BE....,😫

There is better chance of me becoming a vegetarian than UCONN getting knocked off in the Big East tournament