Expansion/realignment chatter post TAMU

[freescooter]

So you say that college athletics are moving to super conferences, but then say the Big East will be carved up by the ACC if the ACC loses a couple of teams. Walk me through that again? How do we have superconferences where the entire Big East is not merged with the ACC? Give me a scenario.

A&M and Missouri to the SEC as 13, 14. VaTech and Florida State to the SEC. as 15 and 16 UCONN, West Virginia, Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse, USF to the ACC as 11-16. TCU, Cincinatti and Rutgers to where? And you can substitute any of the left outs for any of the ins. Depending on the way the big 10 goes, and they aren't taking TCU, or Cincinatti, if the Big East doesn't work it correctly, it is possible that anywhere from 2-4 teams could be left in the cold.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I'll try to do this slowly so you can follow as when things are presented at a normal pace it appears to be beyond your capabilities.

1 - A&M does officially move to the SEC, leaving nine remaining members of the B-12.
2 - The P-12 takes four of the remianing nine (just to keep you up to speed, current ten as although they are called the B-12 they only have ten members, less A&M) to expand to sixteen.
3 - Likely in two steps (one to get to fourteen, the second to get to sixteen) the SEC finds another three schools to add to their conference. For the sake of argument, I will project what appears to be the worst case for the ACC, which would be three members of that conference jumping to the SEC.
4 - The ACC will immediately grab BE schools to replace those that they lost to the SEC and later add other BE members when they move to sixteen.

If this was too fast for you I apologize but I constructed this in a manner which a fifth grader should be able to follow with ease.

The thing is, as a 16/24 model would be beyond anything that could be considered realistic, among the few certainties is that the BE will not be able to start with its own (nine members once TCU joins) football membership and increase to sixteen. Another certainty is that the P-12, B1G and SEC will all survive this round of expansion (to four super conferences). This will leave three players remaining for the last one spot (as a superconference), the B-12 (which will be nearly completely decimated by this point), the Big East (which will be limited in what it can expand to without a split from the catholic schools) and the ACC.

As a hybrid BE cannot get to sixteen, it will be obvious to all that they cannot be a final destination. This will not only make the ACC a more attractive landing point for football members who want to remain part of the BCS, this will by default make them the fourth superconference.

 

[RS9999X]

If the SEC goes to 16 to match the PAC all bets are off.
The ACC could stay at 10 for a 9-game conference schedule. They could add 2. They would drive if the decisions is to go to 16. The BE couldn't drive and pretend to rep the basketball schools.

Of course I think they will add Nova, SJU, ND and GU as basetball members in that scenario and become the BE in all but name. And yes, RU would be in the mix over USF.

 

[jpm25]

Why does a school have to pursue the most dollars in athletic revenues, when those extra dollars never make it out of the athletic department anyway? Why wouldn't a school be just as happy making some less money and being more competitive? Why does the President care what the assistant coaches make, for example, or whether they fly coach or business class when recruiting?

it is known as The Flutie Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flutie_Effect

 

[mattp]

I still see the most significant issue being that in this game of musical chairs, unless you are already a brand that will be guaranteed a seat once the music stops, finding a seat that will absolutely not be removed is of far greater importance than being immediately competitive. All members of the SEC will have a seat once the music stops. If the eventual move becomes four sixteen member BCS conferences and the BE's next move is to the 12/20 model, there is little chance that the BE will survive ahead of the ACC and a limited portion of the twelve football members will be able to find a home. In Missouri's eyes, a move to a 12/20 BE may do little more than put their school on the chopping block again in a few years. Many current Be football members may also see things this way.[/quote]

when all is said and done i think the idea that the BCS will become more exclusive is wrong. so far every move has been to give more teams BCS access, and i think that will continue. there's anti trust to think about. i don't think musical chairs is an appropriate metaphor b/c they keep adding chairs, not taking them away

 

[freescooter]

it is known as The Flutie Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flutie_Effect

There have been a number of studies, including one by a guy on the BC faculty, which suggest that the Flutie effect was total nonsense. BC had been seeing significant increases in applications before and after Flutie. There have been other studies which indicate that successful football programs do bring about increases in such things as alumni giving, though successful basketball programs tend not to have much effect.

 

[upstater]

it is known as The Flutie Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flutie_Effect

Zimbalist pegs the probable success of such an effect at a 10% chance of success, and then he brings up the Loser's side, what happens when your school loses games.

One might tromp down Commonwealth Ave to see how Boston U's average class score has risen by the same amount as BC's in the time since Flutie. BU was also recently ranked through an international survey above BC.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

One might tromp down Commonwealth Ave to see how Boston U's average class score has risen by the same amount as BC's in the time since Flutie. BU was also recently ranked through an international survey above BC.

It's the Jack Parker Effect!

No, but seriously, the Flutie Effect is mostly garbage. It is true that continued success in a big time football or basketball program can increase applications, it happened at UConn post 1999. Of course, there are many, many other factors involved, so athletics is probably a secondary factor.