ESPN's "Way too early 2018/2019 Top 25"

[PAHuskeyFan]

NCAA champion Irish lead women's basketball's way-too-early top 25

UConn at #4... not too surprising.
Behind ND, Oregon and Baylor. I agree with ND and Baylor... not sold yet that Oregon is #2...

As the title says... Way Too Early.

 

[HoopsFan21]

When was the last time we were ranked as low as #4? Gotta be a few years.

 

[Sky ball]

That poll settles it. 38-0 next year & National Champions. Take it to the bank.

 

[willtalk]

NCAA champion Irish lead women's basketball's way-too-early top 25

UConn at #4... not too surprising.
Behind ND, Oregon and Baylor. I agree with ND and Baylor... not sold yet that Oregon is #2...

As the title says... Way Too Early.

When you make ratings this early pretty much all you have to go on is logic. And logically the ratings make sense. Oregon, for example, appears to have the deepest team in the country and depth goes a long way in mitigating the ill effects of Timing. They just ran into a hot ND team, while they them selves had some really subpar shooting from a majority of their starters. I mean how often will Hebert miss those bunnies? In evaluating the strength of a team via a comparative score, one has to consider where on their own sliding scale the teams players played. Were they, game of their lives good, average or sub par? One needs to consider the odds of those same game conditions repeating themselves.

Now some of the teams can realistically be juggled around a bit, but generally they are in the right ball park. I mean it is a "far too early ranking".

 

[EricLA]

I think that's fair. When you look at what we lost - 3 key players - to what Oregon lost - Lexi Bando, I totally agree they should be ranked ahead of us. However, they are delusional with Tennessee. They lost their 2 best players and bring in a freshman class that is good but not game changing. Ahead of Mizzou who lost no one to graduation? I don't think so. Tenn should be about 15 or so.

Meanwhile, SC who lost "only" Wilson (granted a huge loss) is down at 15? They bring in a top 10 kid, as well as they get T'ea Cooper, a top 5 or so kid, eligible next year. but they are behind Tennessee? I don't think so. I hope SC mops the floor with them when they play. Let's hope Saxton is able to use her tremendous athleticism to become a good hoops player (she's rated low but I think she could be quite good)...

And Oregon State? Come on - they add a pair of twin towers - both over 6'7". They do lose Gulich, but again, given what is coming back and what they lost/add compared to Tennessee, and they are ranked lower? Sheesh...

 

[SCspur]

Creme is officially a joke

 

[Rb335]

I think UConn will be as successful as Walker’s sophomore leap. If she can do her best imitation of Lou and Collier as sophomores, that gives us four really good options.

I honestly think the 16/17 team was more of an unknown than next year. We had zero returning players who had really proved themselves. At least next season we have three proven AA level players. That’s a solid building block.

I like the #4 spot. It takes the pressure off of our team and will allow them to figure things out over the course of the season. A final four isn’t out of the question.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Interestingly, he says we would have been #1 if Z had stayed. I would have thought #2, maybe #3.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Creme is officially a joke

Uh oh, someone saw #15...

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Interestingly, he says we would have been #1 if Z had stayed. I would have thought #2, maybe #3.

I'm guessing he realizes that UConn, despite the loss, was the clear best team in the country the past year and that another step up from Stevens along with improvement from Walker and others would partly mitigate the losses of Nurse and Williams. I'd have had UConn #2 or #3 but can understand why one might have had them 1st.

 

[SCspur]

Uh oh, someone saw #15...

No way Mizzou, Tenn, Georgia and Miss St will be better. Miss St loses 4 of their 5 starters and people still expect them to be top 10?? Stanford at #6 after losing 11 games this year and losing McPhee to graduation?? I'm not sold on Maryland as they always bow out early in the tourney and couldn't win their tourney in the weakest P5 conference. Tenn at 9?? I had to stop reading because I absolutely knew at that point it was a complete joke.

 

[biobioprof]

Uh oh, someone saw #15...

Maybe @SCspur is pointing out that Creme should know that Emer Nichols has already announced she’s transferring from A&M.

 

[Dillon77]

"The Lady Vols Will Be Young But Talented" is starting to rank up there with "There's a train right behind this one" and "the check is in the mail."

How often has WCBB been subjected to that prediction?
A prediction of #9 for this group is a stretch considering they're losing center Russell and steady-eddie Nared.
ESPNw just looks at the SEC -- and Tennessee -- through green-shaded glasses.

Two others caught my attention:

- #20 Duke.
They were not in the top 16 of seeded teams with Brown and Greenwell, yet they're supposed to be in the top 20 with the tough-but-always-getting injured Haely Gorecki and Leaonna Odom, who is "now on the verge of becoming a star?" Fine...let's check in on that in January.

Regarding the ACC, after ND and Louisville, I see Duke and FSU being challenged in a major way by Syracuse, Va. Tech and North Carolina State. FSU will take awhile to work in new pieces (maybe even a year) and Ga. Tech has got to deliver on all the talented folks they're bringing in. (Note similarity to Tennessee.)


-- #21 UCLA
No Jordin Canada, Monique Billings and Kelli Hayes? Everyone else was -- with all due respect -- a follow-the-leader to those three seniors. Top 25 is a stretch at the beginning of the year. Got to see who steps up and what comes of it. Once again, check in January, please.

 

[wallman]

If you have that many problems with it, you could always write your own.

 

[triaddukefan]

If Duke finishes in the top 20, I'll name my first child McCallie

 

[stwainfan]

Davis is capable of being a big time scorer. I do agree with that. Also Westbrook and Hayes should be better.

 

[willtalk]

I would bet that if you went on any of the Vol forums the majority of their fans would think a #9 ranking is much too high.

My take on the teams generally being in the right ball park was not referring to the entire poll, rather just the the top few.

 

[SCspur]

What's your take on the Gamecocks #15 ranking? Thoughts about other teams? @SCGamecock @cockhrnleghrn @shiverz45 @Gamecockfan77

 

[hugefan]

I will enjoy rooting against the Notre Dame Whining Irish.

 

[Charliebball]

Yes way too early for top 25 rankings.....................I fully expect multiple transfers involving some of those teams regardless of NCAA rule changes................

 

[biobioprof]

I think that's fair. When you look at what we lost - 3 key players - to what Oregon lost - Lexi Bando, I totally agree they should be ranked ahead of us. However, they are delusional with Tennessee. They lost their 2 best players and bring in a freshman class that is good but not game changing. Ahead of Mizzou who lost no one to graduation? I don't think so. Tenn should be about 15 or so.

Jordan Frericks is a very significant loss to graduation.

The problem for Mizzou is that without Frericks, other teams will be able to focus even more on Sophie. This year's backcourt for Mizzou was OK but not that great, on both ends of the floor. One thing I noticed when we blew Mizzou out at Reed Arena was that when they went to the press on D, it was Sophie and Jordan applying the pressure, not the guards. Frericks was the main secondary option to Cunningham on the offensive end. Porter is talented but was a non-factor in too many games due to foul trouble, and that was with her sharing the 5 with Frericks.

Tennessee may be overrated, but I wouldn't point to Mizzou as a team that should be higher than they are in Creme's analysis.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I'm not sold on Maryland as they always bow out early in the tourney and couldn't win their tourney in the weakest P5 conference.

Some history...Maryland won the first three Big Ten regular season and conference tournament championships in its first three years in the Big Ten. Maryland made the Final Four in 2014, lost their best player (Alyssa Thomas) to graduation, then made the Final Four again in 2015. After a Sweet 16 in 2017 (which arguably was bowing out earlier than expected), Maryland lost Walker-Kimbrough and Jones to graduation and Destiny Slocum to transfer. But this past year, Maryland went 25-7, finished second in the Big Ten, and did so after not returning its three best players. I think it is a bit unfair to say Maryland "always bow out early in the tourney."

As an aside, if you were to ask UConn fans about the 2015-16 and 2016-17 games with Maryland, you will hear stories about how Brenda Frese's team played the Huskies very, very close in two games. In 2015-16, Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Morgan Tuck, etc. beat Maryland 83-73, but UConn led only 75-71 with 1:11 remaining. And in 2016-17, Maryland led a furious fourth quarter charge to cut UConn's lead to five at various points in the fourth quarter, before succumbing, 87-81.

As Charlie Creme noted, if Blair Watson can return from an ACL tear suffered in January, then Brenda Frese will have her top five scorers returning, plus point guard Channise Lewis. And consider this - in the 2018 recruiting class, Maryland got the following players:

Shakira Austin
#4 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#5 - ASGR
#10 - Blue Star
#12 - Prospects Nation

Olivia Owens
#26 - Blue Star
#26 - ASGR
#31 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#50 - Prospects Nation

Taylor Mikesell
#28 - Blue Star
#30 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#31 - ASGR
#60 - Prospects Nation

Maryland finished 18th in RPI this year and, again, with a record of 25-7. If Watson returns healthy, Frese will have her top five scorers, another point guard, a top ten freshmen, plus two other well-regarded recruits. Given the losses by some of the schools, I do not see Maryland at #7 as all that shocking.

 

[SCspur]

Some history...Maryland won the first three Big Ten regular season and conference tournament championships in its first three years in the Big Ten. Maryland made the Final Four in 2014, lost their best player (Alyssa Thomas) to graduation, then made the Final Four again in 2015. After a Sweet 16 in 2017 (which arguably was bowing out earlier than expected), Maryland lost Walker-Kimbrough and Jones to graduation and Destiny Slocum to transfer. But this past year, Maryland went 25-7, finished second in the Big Ten, and did so after not returning its three best players. I think it is a bit unfair to say Maryland "always bow out early in the tourney."

As an aside, if you were to ask UConn fans about the 2015-16 and 2016-17 games with Maryland, you will hear stories about how Brenda Frese's team played the Huskies very, very close in two games. In 2015-16, Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Morgan Tuck, etc. beat Maryland 83-73, but UConn led only 75-71 with 1:11 remaining. And in 2016-17, Maryland led a furious fourth quarter charge to cut UConn's lead to five at various points in the fourth quarter, before succumbing, 87-81.

As Charlie Creme noted, if Blair Watson can return from an ACL tear suffered in January, then Brenda Frese will have her top five scorers returning, plus point guard Channise Lewis. And consider this - in the 2018 recruiting class, Maryland got the following players:

Shakira Austin
#4 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#5 - ASGR
#10 - Blue Star
#12 - Prospects Nation

Olivia Owens
#26 - Blue Star
#26 - ASGR
#31 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#50 - Prospects Nation

Taylor Mikesell
#28 - Blue Star
#30 - Dan Olson/Collegiate Girls Basketball Report
#31 - ASGR
#60 - Prospects Nation

Maryland finished 18th in RPI this year and, again, with a record of 25-7. If Watson returns healthy, Frese will have her top five scorers, another point guard, a top ten freshmen, plus two other well-regarded recruits. Given the losses by some of the schools, I do not see Maryland at #7 as all that shocking.

Don't forget they lost in the round of 32 in 2016 to seventh seed Washington. My initial post wasn't a knock on Maryland. They are a fine program and Frese is a very good coach. But I just don't think they'll be that good. IMHO I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa or Nebraska or even Mich St won the Big 10 this year. SC plays Maryland again this year so maybe they will prove me wrong.

 

[Dillon77]

I will enjoy rooting against the Notre Dame Whining Irish.

We ND fans always welcome competition, but didn't you mean "winning" Irish?
(and, besides, these young women look pretty darn happy to me...

See you next season. December. Let's do it again.

 

[hugefan]

I heard that Notre Dame were changing their colors to black and white stripes. Their motto next year along with WHINING will be “who needs a bench when we have 8 players on the court”.