Have to disagree with ESPN's rankings. The #1 player is Aliyah Boston. It's not about points, but her dominating everything that happens on the court- it's not just her blocks, but her threat of blocks. She disrupts everything that the opposing team wants to do, while opening up huge scoring opportunities for her teammates by being an offensive threat, no matter how many points she scores or doesn't. And the notion that Kamila Cardoso is just the #21 player in the Top 25 is absurd. Cardoso is the second-best post player in the nation. It is the combination of Boston and Cardoso that has made South Carolina into an unbeatable force. Hands down. And the 6'6" Kitley is the reason Virginia Tech is where they are.
This tournament is dominated by the posts and power forwards. Connecticut is where it is overwhelmingly because of Aaliyah Edwards. LSU because of Angel Reese. And though incredibly fun and exciting to watch, without Czinano, Clark and Iowa are nowhere.
To add to your points, I think you can be a good team that is even ranked without star true bigs, but to be a real championship contender you have to have them. The teams at the very top generally do, and to cut down the nets you have to go thru them. South Carolina and Stanford are examples of teams that not only have a star C but superstar backups behind them that are even bigger, and multiple other bigs that 90% of teams would start.
One reason it is so important is because of how rare a stud that is 6-4 or more is. Beyond that the very best teams get way more than their share, extending to the backups. Why would a player like Cardosa for example go to South Carolina knowing she would be behind Boston for two years? Other than the obvious odds for a championship, I think it might be because she gets to practice against Boston every day.
She could have put up All American numbers at dozens of quality programs, and breeze thru most of the regular season against far smaller and less talented direct competition, facing only a handful of true tests against another WNBA level true C. You could argue that practicing against Boston develops her game more than dominating inferior competition. Betts at Stanford went there knowing she would be behind Brink for a couple of seasons despite her number 1 high school ranking, perhaps for similar reasons.
As for Uconn, the above points are one reason why I don't prefer the four out and start Aaliyah at C next year scenario. Many want to find a way to add perhaps Aubrey or Caroline to the starting lineup next year at the 4, moving Aaliyah to the 5. Part of that logic is the alternative is using a talented but unproven newcomer at the 5 like Ice or Jana.
While I understand that Caroline and Aubrey may be better overall players than Ice or Jana at least in their first year, there is more to it than that. First Aaliyah is a natural 4 heading into her senior season, and I would like to see her dominate there rather than playing at a position where she is not as good. Caroline is a natural 3 and similarly is less effective at the 4. Now for Aubrey it might be different. She played her first two years more as a big, and this year more as a wing, but as we saw when she had to step up when Aaliyah was sitting, despite her size and slender build, she could be very good at the 4.
The small lineup could be very effective against the vast majority of our opponents, I get that. To pursue the goal that we have every year of a championship, I think you have to look past most of the BE schedule and the first couple of rounds of the NCAA tournament and ask who are the biggest obstacles to getting there? I think the answer is generally those teams that have those very rare star true C types, along with very good 4's and plenty of quality backup bigs.
So I would rather spend the season getting comfortable with two bigs and be more prepared for the teams that are our biggest ultimate challenge. Give Ice or Jana the opportunity to earn a start even with growing pains initially, and let them grow into being pretty ready to go toe to toe, with the star bigs they will need to face later. They don't have to win those later battles, just be competitive and not be dominated. With Aaliyah as good as anybody at her natural 4, we can certainly dominate positions 1-4 against most everybody. Nika, Azzi, and Paige as the starting smalls, backed by Caroline and sometimes Aubrey (used behind Aaliyah some too), plus KK or Ashlynn and Q if needed, but in tough games I could see us just using the starters plus Caroline and Aubrey for the 120 minutes at 1-3.
We may want to use KK, but we don't have to because when Caroline or Aubrey comes in for Nika, Paige can slide over to the point.
I am not saying never use small ball. There will be times to use it, but I think the default mode should be two bigs. I am also not saying go with Ice or Jana if they are not producing at a pretty high level. If neither is ready to at least be an above average 5 from the get go, then I would go small ball too, but I really expect both to be above average from the start but not as good as they will be later in their careers. A great proven experienced 5 from the portal is still a dream, but I'm starting to think there may not be anyone in the portal this year that meets those standards.
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