I don't understand how they can project us as a #4 seed and then say Sweet 16 is the best-case scenario. If we're a #4 seed, then Sweet 16 should be the average outcome, not the best case.
I would say,
Best case: Facey goes from DNP to DD-Lite, Brimah becomes a threat on offense as well as a strong post-up defender and rebounder (and elite shot-blocker, needless to say), Purvis and Boat co-exist in the backcourt while shooting 40% from deep, and Daniel Hamilton steps in immediately with scoring from the wing. After a solid non-conference performance, we cruise through the weak AAC schedule and hang around #10 in the rankings all year. We earn a #2-#3 seed and an Elite 8 appearance, with a reasonable shot at a Final Four.
Worst case: The 4/5 offer no offensive threat, and outside shooting suffers. We slog through a bunch of hideous offensive games with Boat and Purvis slashing into the paint with minimal success. Hamilton is not the stud we thought we were getting. We go 0-4 against Florida, Duke, Texas, and Stanford and plummet out of the rankings. The lack of marquee wins late in the year prevents us from getting back into the Top 25, and we languish in "others receiving votes". We earn a #9 seed in the Tournament and bow out in the first round against a well-coached mid-major.