Elite 8 Matchups and Predictions | The Boneyard

Elite 8 Matchups and Predictions

bballnut90

bballnut90

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Quick power rankings/predictions entering the Sweet 16:

1. South Carolina-they're still undefeated and #1 despite a rough 4th quarter vs. Indiana. I think they come out and likely beat Oregon State, but Oregon State is playing well.

2. Texas-they've looked consistently the best this tournament. They defend the heck out of you, have guards that can make shots and a great playmaker in Booker. Aaliyah Moore is a stud too. This team has championship potential and size and athleticism to be great.

3. Iowa-they were unbelievable today vs. Colorado, LSU will be a different animal though. If they get the ball movement, shot making and spacing they had today, they can win. Clark has to bring her best stuff like she did today.

4. LSU-the game vs. UCLA today looked like a championship level battle. Both teams made some great plays, played with a ton of fire and it was a blast to watch all around. Flau'jae Johnson is elevating LSU to be a realistic title contender with her play in the post season. Reese will have an easier time tomorrow going up against Iowa than she did Betts. This is clearly the matchup to watch.

5. NC State-they were also brilliant vs. Stanford. Their guards are quick and capable of taking over games. Texas is going to be a tough match up though and I don't expect it to be an easy game.

6. USC-eeked out a win over Baylor. They've had a great season to get this far as a #1 seed, but they'll need to be more efficient to take down UCONN.

7. Oregon State-could be put above USC, they're playing well and dominated Notre Dame inside but will have a much tougher task vs South Carolina.

8. UCONN-they were blowing out Duke and almost let them get back in the 4th quarter. They haven't looked great, but they're still in the Elite 8 with Paige Bueckers playing really good basketball. I'd look for Edwards to have a big game vs. USC. I think their experience and virtue of having Paige could take them to another Final Four.


Predictions:

South Carolina over Oregon State, 75-63. I think Oregon State keeps it close but SC just outmans them down the stretch. I think SC brings a really strong effort after a lackluster finish to the Sweet 16.

Texas over NC State, 67-63. In a battle of 2 very well coached teams, I think Booker takes over and proves to be the best player on the court. Texas is just a little more complete and gets back to the Final Four for the first time in 21 years.

LSU over Iowa, 85-77. I think they match up favorably to Iowa. More size, they can get Iowa into foul trouble and I see Reese/Flaujae feasting. I could also see Clark just going insane and having a legendary performance but I'm sticking with LSU in this one.

UCONN over USC, 68-60. Another drudge it out battle, Paige takes over and gets UCONN back to the Final Four in an unexpected way. This also feels like a toss up though since Southern Cal has played and beaten a lot of really good teams this year and I think they have the pieces to do it.
 
bballnut90 said:
Quick power rankings/predictions entering the Sweet 16:

1. South Carolina-they're still undefeated and #1 despite a rough 4th quarter vs. Indiana. I think they come out and likely beat Oregon State, but Oregon State is playing well.

2. Texas-they've looked consistently the best this tournament. They defend the heck out of you, have guards that can make shots and a great playmaker in Booker. Aaliyah Moore is a stud too. This team has championship potential and size and athleticism to be great.

3. Iowa-they were unbelievable today vs. Colorado, LSU will be a different animal though. If they get the ball movement, shot making and spacing they had today, they can win. Clark has to bring her best stuff like she did today.

4. LSU-the game vs. UCLA today looked like a championship level battle. Both teams made some great plays, played with a ton of fire and it was a blast to watch all around. Flau'jae Johnson is elevating LSU to be a realistic title contender with her play in the post season. Reese will have an easier time tomorrow going up against Iowa than she did Betts. This is clearly the matchup to watch.

5. NC State-they were also brilliant vs. Stanford. Their guards are quick and capable of taking over games. Texas is going to be a tough match up though and I don't expect it to be an easy game.

6. USC-eeked out a win over Baylor. They've had a great season to get this far as a #1 seed, but they'll need to be more efficient to take down UCONN.

7. Oregon State-could be put above USC, they're playing well and dominated Notre Dame inside but will have a much tougher task vs South Carolina.

8. UCONN-they were blowing out Duke and almost let them get back in the 4th quarter. They haven't looked great, but they're still in the Elite 8 with Paige Bueckers playing really good basketball. I'd look for Edwards to have a big game vs. USC. I think their experience and virtue of having Paige could take them to another Final Four.


Predictions:

South Carolina over Oregon State, 75-63. I think Oregon State keeps it close but SC just outmans them down the stretch. I think SC brings a really strong effort after a lackluster finish to the Sweet 16.

Texas over NC State, 67-63. In a battle of 2 very well coached teams, I think Booker takes over and proves to be the best player on the court. Texas is just a little more complete and gets back to the Final Four for the first time in 21 years.

LSU over Iowa, 85-77. I think they match up favorably to Iowa. More size, they can get Iowa into foul trouble and I see Reese/Flaujae feasting. I could also see Clark just going insane and having a legendary performance but I'm sticking with LSU in this one.

UCONN over USC, 68-60. Another drudge it out battle, Paige takes over and gets UCONN back to the Final Four in an unexpected way. This also feels like a toss up though since Southern Cal has played and beaten a lot of really good teams this year and I think they have the pieces to do it.
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I wonder if we'll see a Texas-USCw NC game.
 
Four one seeds versus four three seeds. What were the chances of that happening?
 
I think USoCal’s athleticism, size in the post, and JU Ju Walkins will just be to much for UConn to with contend with. I hope I’m wrong. I predict
USoCal 66
UConn 54
 
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DEpup said:
It means the 2 seeds were over rated.
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UCLA I think beats any of the other 3 seeds. LSU was a brutal draw for them. The others I agree. Stanford had a favorable PAC schedule, Ohio State was never 2 seed material despite getting the seed, Notre Dame was a borderline 4/5 until the end of the regular season too.
 
Let’s say Paige and JuJu cancel each other out scoring. How do the remaining players measure up? I have to believe Paige will substantially outplay JuJu in every way but scoring and perhaps rebounding. If that happens, I think this game will be determined (barring foul trouble) by Aaliyah & Ashlynn. If those two score 17+ each and Nika and KK just give us their average game, we should win this game going away. Of course, this assumes that our girls can get their legs back by Monday night!

As someone else pointed out earlier though, this team has certainly overachieved at this point and is playing on house money.
While that certainly does not lessen my desire for them to win, let me just say how proud I am of these young women who have basically given their all for this program and who, win or lose Monday night, have carved themselves out a permanent niche in the pantheon of great UConn teams! Whenever the question of “What was the toughest UConn team ever?” they will absolutely be among the top choices!

I also have to mention the coaching job Geno has put in this season. While I doubt the National Media will agree, I believe it to be among the best jobs of his legendary career! I’d like to see any other coach take this roster with all the injuries, the lack of any meaningful bench, and the fact that four out of seven of the contributing players were freshmen, and still, on the eve of the Elite Eight, be a favorite to make it to yet another Final Four! Anyone out there who wants to intimate that Geno has “lost his fastball”, can kiss my royal heinie!
 
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No-one should count Uconn out until the final buzzer. There are many' many teams that were supposed to beat Uconn, according to the Pundits, and didn't.This is the Elite Eight and no team has been to it as many times as Uconn. This is Uconn's territory and they become different players when they get here. Uconn has a tradition that they belong here, that they earned this spot in spite of all their injuries. I am looking forward to seeing the surprised and downcast faces of the other players as we continue our march forward. This is our year and I BELIEVE!!!!!! GO FRESHMEN!!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!! GO PAIGE!!!!!
 
SLY63 said:
I am shocked that we are favorite over USC. I am a die-hard UConn fan, but would put $$$ on USC +3.5
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Vegas understands that each game has its own personality. They don't base their pointspread on one previous game, but on the whole resume of a team & matchups vs. their opponent.
Every champion has a game where they are tested before regaining their top form. Both teams struggled to finish their games to reach the Elite Eight. This game starts with a clean slate!
 
Solid win by South Carolina despite inconsistent officiating both ways. Watkins/Johnson were the difference makers today, Ashlyn especially was dominant defensively and on the boards. Johnson hit some big shots and made big plays. On the semis where they'll face Texas or NC State. Texas vs. South Carolina will be Dawn vs. Vic once again, a rematch of the 2017 title game and 2021 Elite 8. I think Texas very easily could upset South Carolina.

If it's NC State vs. SC, it'll be Saniya Rivers going up against her old team. Also, NC State was the last team to beat South Carolina in South Carolina (in Fall 2020).

Up next is Texas/NC State, should be a great battle.
 
jaydee602 said:
Vegas understands that each game has its own personality. They don't base their pointspread on one previous game, but on the whole resume of a team & matchups vs. their opponent.
Every champion has a game where they are tested before regaining their top form. Both teams struggled to finish their games to reach the Elite Eight. This game starts with a clean slate!
Expand ...
Vegas sets odds so that half of the bettors bet on each team. If a lot of people are betting on UConn, the odds will keep moving in their favor to encourage others to bet on the opponent. That’s why odds move.

www.sportsbettingdime.com

How Do Bookmakers Determine Sports Odds?

Ever been curious how the spread is determined, or how the moneyline comes into being? Read on to learn more about how odds and lines are made!
www.sportsbettingdime.com www.sportsbettingdime.com
 
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And all year UConn was put down because it lost to an unranked team in one of the first games of the season when rankings were dumb. How does that game look now to the smart talking heads on the networks. NC State was good and was more ready to play that early in the season. I'm ready for a rematch for the Championship!
 
bballnut90 said:
Solid win by South Carolina despite inconsistent officiating both ways. Watkins/Johnson were the difference makers today, Ashlyn especially was dominant defensively and on the boards. Johnson hit some big shots and made big plays. On the semis where they'll face Texas or NC State. Texas vs. South Carolina will be Dawn vs. Vic once again, a rematch of the 2017 title game and 2021 Elite 8. I think Texas very easily could upset South Carolina.

If it's NC State vs. SC, it'll be Saniya Rivers going up against her old team. Also, NC State was the last team to beat South Carolina in South Carolina (in Fall 2020).

Up next is Texas/NC State, should be a great battle.
Expand ...
NCSt wins.
 
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How’s this scenario:

UConn beats USC and Iowa beats LSU and then meet in the final four. Everyone assumes, probably not wrongly, that SC will win the NC game against either opponent.

But the Iowa-UConn will have the better narrative, the better matchup of superstars. It’s the game the media will love.

I suspect the NC game, where SC thumps either Iowa or UConn, could feel like an afterthought and that the real event was the prior game. SC will be national champions, but the Paige-Caitlin matchup is what will be remembered.
 
Bone Dog said:
How’s this scenario:

UConn beats USC and Iowa beats LSU and then meet in the final four. Everyone assumes, probably not wrongly, that SC will win the NC game against either opponent.

But the Iowa-UConn will have the better narrative, the better matchup of superstars. It’s the game the media will love.

I suspect the NC game, where SC thumps either Iowa or UConn, could feel like an afterthought and that the real event was the prior game. SC will be national champions, but the Paige-Caitlin matchup is what will be remembered.
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I’ll take it. I couldn’t possibly care less about headlines or TV ratings. I’m only concerned with winning it all.
 
Bone Dog said:
How’s this scenario:

UConn beats USC and Iowa beats LSU and then meet in the final four. Everyone assumes, probably not wrongly, that SC will win the NC game against either opponent.

But the Iowa-UConn will have the better narrative, the better matchup of superstars. It’s the game the media will love.

I suspect the NC game, where SC thumps either Iowa or UConn, could feel like an afterthought and that the real event was the prior game. SC will be national champions, but the Paige-Caitlin matchup is what will be remembered.
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I think the Paige-Caitlin narrative isn’t as big of a talking point anymore outside of UCONN fans bringing them up. Clark-Juju would be a huge matchup too due to Juju being on track to beat Caitlin’s scoring record. I think the NCAA ultimately dropped the ball by putting LSU and Iowa in the same regional since that storyline trumps any potential F4 matchup.

Also, I think SC is very beatable if you catch them on an off shooting night. They aren’t playing their best basketball right now and I could see any team left beating them, though I’d still predict SC to win at this point.
 
While I think Paige can outplay Ju Ju in almost every area, I think the problem is that Ju Ju consistently outdoes Paige when it comes to drawing fouls. Paige only takes good shots, but sometimes getting to the line is about taking a couple bad shots and getting bailed out with a foul. And, unfortunately, fouls are what I think could - if anything - doom the five-player UConn rotation in this one. I’m just hoping it’s close because that means we have a chance! No shame either way - Elite 8 with that lineup on the bench is a great accomplishment.
 
bkart1978 said:
While I think Paige can outplay Ju Ju in almost every area, I think the problem is that Ju Ju consistently outdoes Paige when it comes to drawing fouls. Paige only takes good shots, but sometimes getting to the line is about taking a couple bad shots and getting bailed out with a foul.
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I agree with your overall point. But it’s worth commenting on this one detail. Geno has mentioned this a few times, that for whatever reasons the refs don’t seem to see the fouls Paige endures. Juju, by contrast, appears to be getting the same treatment Caitlyn does, and even the slightest touch on a drive draws a whistle.

So, yes, the fouls Juju draws could be a problem. Job one for Nika is to avoid fouling out, and I think this means not trying to stop Juju’s drives to the rim. She should focus on limiting her passing and leave it at that. Even if Juju scores 40, it’s more important that Nika be on the floor in the closing minutes.
 
HuskyNan said:
Vegas sets odds so that half of the bettors bet on each team. If a lot of people are betting on UConn, the odds will keep moving in their favor to encourage others to bet on the opponent. That’s why odds move.

www.sportsbettingdime.com

How Do Bookmakers Determine Sports Odds?

Ever been curious how the spread is determined, or how the moneyline comes into being? Read on to learn more about how odds and lines are made!
www.sportsbettingdime.com www.sportsbettingdime.com
Expand ...
Exactly, Nan. The bettors affect the odds, not the bookmakers.
As a hopeless gambler who has been wagering on UCONN games for years, I can attest that bettors have always placed wagers on UCONN. In their prime, the Huskies always covered the spread. But that usually inflates the point spread.
 
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