Early line on UConn vs SC

[AzzisBraids]

Here's what I like: UConn has Sarah Strong, Azzi Fudd and Blanca Quinonez. Those there have enough in offensive production to ignite this team. I also like our defense, UConn's defense was great last year and it's even better this year. Defensively, UConn is going to force SC into their 3rd, 4th and 5th options. I also like that Geno is the mastermind behind this all. He has had South Carolina's number in schemes. He will deploy another that we haven't seen to topple this team.

Here's what makes me nervous: Raven Johnson, she is a rebounding nightmare and now has unlocked her scoring ability. She's a dangerous player when left to her own devices. Taniya Latson and her drawing foul ability. She's another. Joyce Edwards making jumpshots is dangerous as well. I also don't like Agot Makeer in this matchup. She is long, lanky and can seemingly bolster this team.

All in all - I expect a fun game. My wish is that Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong resurrects their Final Four self from last year and decide to go off. If they do that, there's nothing that South Carolina can conjure that will vanquish UConn.

 

[VA Huskie]

We have confidence that Ash / KK and Sereh will get their confidence back.
This is it for Azzi —and she will show the country why she will be the number 1 draft choice in the WNBA
No doubt that the other 3 teams have gotten better from last year. Texas looks like UConn in a lot of ways.

Agree, although I don’t think Texas has the outside shooting we have (Fudd, Strong and Blanca), nor do we have the inside strength they have.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I believe that UConn's players will rise to the occasion and play as they did in the last Final Four!
Anything is possible but our girls have shown a toughness that comes from knowing their teammates will have their back!
Yes SoCar, UCLA, and TX are all playing well coming into this Final Four but they haven't faced a defense like UConn's can present!
UConn is capable of bringing 32 to 38 points off the bench and the other 3 are not able to match that!
Have faith in our girls they'll make us proud!

 

[Cuango]

After watching the four top seeds win, I have much doubt that UConn will prevail this Friday. I think SC looked a lot better and will win the game. I hope I am not right. SC looked good last season also after beating Texas in the semi's but still lost to UConn. I hope the same thing happens this time.

It is really on us. If we play well, we will win! (I believe) Obviously, there are ways for us to lose but barring foul trouble or injuries, this game will be determined by how we play. I don’t believe they can win if we play well.

 

[Bald Husky]

Its important that we get off to a great start in the first. I get afraid just hoping that we can survive our dreaded second quarter. If we have at least any kind of lead at halftime than I will be confident that we can close the book on our opponent, no matter who it is.

 

[Vancat]

Will the AFLAC duck be playing?

 

[browns]

Shade and KK have to play a lot better..Azzi it's time for her to up her game like last year..Sarah being Sarah and shutting down Edwards like she has in the past..Blanca continue to dominate the game when she come in
I can see a problem with Okot dominating Jada or Williams
As far as SC not seeing a defense like Uconn well they played Texas 3 times albeit lost twice but Texas is darn close as good as Uconn's defense

 

[oldude]

This idea that KK & Ash have to play a lot better is nonsense. Somewhere on the internet there is a video of Geno talking about the difference between tangibles and intangibles. His role model for intangibles is none other than Kelly Ferris, the original Swiss Army knife. In her first FF, she had 0 points in both games, but did a little of everything else to help UConn secure victory.

Then in her last FF, with UConn’s opponent doing everything to stop the Huskies big scorers, Ferris knocked down a bunch of 3’s as UConn won another championship.

KK is running the offense splendidly. She and Ash are relentless defenders, hustling all over the court. Any scoring UConn gets from either player is gravy.

If UConn’s two AA’s are carrying the scoring load along with our super freshman off the bench, why should we care whether anyone else scores a lot, a little or not at all?

 

[Tonyc]

The one thing that has to happen is UConn continue to play great D and force their opponent to dribble. UConn will score one way or another. Their defense makes opponents nervous because they dont know when their defense will attack them. Defense is why UConn has this win streak, and it will continue.

 

[PhillyCoach]

As many posters have said--any of the 4 teams could win. I believe If UConn plays their A game then they should win. All 4 teams have great defenses. IMHO it will come down to shooting %. If UConn total FG % is under 44% and 3 pt shooting % is under 33% then UConn is in big trouble. Can Azzi handle the biggest pressure as a Senior? If she scores less than 15 pts. it gets sticky. As a throw in--I think Texas beats UCLA and that will be a fire cracker final with UConn if they beat SC.

 

[ERWUC65]

This idea that KK & Ash have to play a lot better is nonsense. Somewhere on the internet there is a video of Geno talking about the difference between tangibles and intangibles. His role model for intangibles is none other than Kelly Ferris, the original Swiss Army knife. In her first FF, she had 0 points in both games, but did a little of everything else to help UConn secure victory.

Then in her last FF, with UConn’s opponent doing everything to stop the Huskies big scorers, Ferris knocked down a bunch of 3’s as UConn won another championship.

KK is running the offense splendidly. She and Ash are relentless defenders, hustling all over the court. Any scoring UConn gets from either player is gravy.

If UConn’s two AA’s are carrying the scoring load along with our super freshman off the bench, why should we care whether anyone else scores a lot, a little or not at all?

Nonsense? This is the Final Four and all #1 seeds that easily got here. That's why we should care. NOT going to win against SC then TX or UCLA without offense point production from KK and Ash (especially). Defense is great and against UNC and ND it was enough, but without an offensive threat from those two, and our bigs, these teams have the players that can double Sarah and Azzi all game long.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Massey has us winning by 1 point with a 51% win probability 71-70.

 

[hoophuskee]

As it is every year, In the FF any team can win. All the teams are good to reach this point.

 

[hrmancst]

If Massey really believes in his methodology he should be making large bets on South Carolina by either taking the 6.5 points or getting the 2.25/1 that is available at either Fanduel or DraftKings on the money line (a straight up bet on the outcome of the game without a point spread). Over time, making bets like that would certainly make him a fortune if his methodology is really more accurate than the Vegas line.

Somehow I doubt that he has the confidence in his algorithm to do that.

Massey has us winning by 1 point with a 51% win probability 71-70.

 

[Vancat]

As we saw with the men, stuff happens

 

[HopJim]

Shade and KK have to play a lot better..Azzi it's time for her to up her game like last year..Sarah being Sarah and shutting down Edwards like she has in the past..Blanca continue to dominate the game when she come in
I can see a problem with Okot dominating Jada or Williams
As far as SC not seeing a defense like Uconn well they played Texas 3 times albeit lost twice but Texas is darn close as good as Uconn's defense

Some seem to not remember that Azzi had 34 points 2 games ago. Not great shooting the past 2 games but Fudd managed the game well, getting the ball to Blanca and Sarah as needed while playing great defense. We don't need 30 points from any of these 3 to win (although it would be nice).

 

[skidroe]

It sure would be helpful if Shade could make a shot or two. Just imagine if Shade and Heckle and Ziebell could be cooking on all cylinders. Let's just hope Fudd's first shot goes in.

 

[martyn]

I'd say all three teams have played better than UConn in the past few games but as we know, that means nothing at this time of the year......I'd like to think UConn was playing down to the competition........time to change that...

I thought UConn last two games had a case of the nerves, which surprised me. When they have that supreme self confidence you can't touch them. Just hope they have that coming up.

 

[oldude]

Nonsense? This is the Final Four and all #1 seeds that easily got here. That's why we should care. NOT going to win against SC then TX or UCLA without offense point production from KK and Ash (especially). Defense is great and against UNC and ND it was enough, but without an offensive threat from those two, and our bigs, these teams have the players that can double Sarah and Azzi all game long.

Last year against SC in the national championship, Paige, Azzi & Sarah outscored the entire SC team all by themselves. The idea that roll players have to score for UConn to win just isn’t so. Roll players have to do what they do: play defense, rebound, hustle. If they score, that’s great. But it’s not imperative.

 

[hrmancst]

If Massey really believes in his methodology he should be making large bets on South Carolina by either taking the 6.5 points or getting the 2.25/1 that is available at either Fanduel or DraftKings on the money line (a straight up bet on the outcome of the game without a point spread). Over time, making bets like that would certainly make him a fortune if his methodology is really more accurate than the Vegas line.

Somehow I doubt that he has the confidence in his algorithm to do that.

The pessimists here must not be betting because the money line bet for SC now pays 2.6/1. That means that most of the money being wagered has been bet on UConn despite the fact that the bettors now have to put up $3.5 to win $1.

 

[hart2hart]

Play A game we win, Play B game then it’s a toss-up! I predict an A game from the players! Just be who they are and we win. Be Confident!

 

[Bigboote]

ESPN has a preview of the teams here. At the end they have six folks' predictions of the outcomes. They're unanimous picking UConn over USC by an average of about six points. They're 4-2 for Texas over UCLA, average among the six is 3.5 points in favor of Texas.
I think the averages are pretty good.

 

[Tngamecock]

I also think both Suarez and Miles getting tweaked during the game helped South Carolina. That game could have been a lot closer and who knows what could have happened in the 4th if Miles and Suarez were 100%

Miles got cramps late in the game. Missed a whopping 2 minutes. Suarez missed very little time as well and wasn’t limping when she came back in. If those two teams played 20 times South Carolina would win 20 of them. Keep in mind they do not play teams like South Carolina during the season, and regardless of what they did the game before, reality hit them. That game went exactly like many pundits thought. Said it would be close for the first couple of quarters but it wouldn’t be a game by the fourth quarter. We all knew it.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

The pessimists here must not be betting because the money line bet for SC now pays 2.6/1. That means that most of the money being wagered has been bet on UConn despite the fact that the bettors now have to put up $3.5 to win $1.

So the bet is like the $2 Secretariat Belmont ticket. You're betting for a souvenir.

 

[Tngamecock]

Massey's current score prediction is UCONN 71 SC 70...

I want to see a game like last year's championship game, where UCONN is "can't miss" kind of shooting and Dawn basically stops Coaching at the start of the 2nd Quarter, sits on the bench and yells the "F" word every time something goes good for UCONN or bad for SC.

I will never forget how she just "gave up" ... some will say she just saw the writing on the wall, but her job is to COACH her Team.

Now now let’s not make up stuff.

 

[jaundicedeye]

Last year against SC in the national championship, Paige, Azzi & Sarah outscored the entire SC team all by themselves. The idea that roll players have to score for UConn to win just isn’t so. Roll players have to do what they do: play defense, rebound, hustle. If they score, that’s great. But it’s not imperative.

I contend that our role players have to be viable scoring options to keep the SC defense from sagging off and free to double Sarah and Azzi. I know they will get shot opportunities and I just hope they can make good on them.
Last year was last year. We do not have Paige and I believe SC is much better and they will be better prepared.

 

[ERWUC65]

Last year against SC in the national championship, Paige, Azzi & Sarah outscored the entire SC team all by themselves. The idea that roll players have to score for UConn to win just isn’t so. Roll players have to do what they do: play defense, rebound, hustle. If they score, that’s great. But it’s not imperative.

Well, no Paige this year and SC is considerably better and looking for revenge. And by the way, one of the Role (not Roll) players KK had 9 points in that game. I hope you're right, but I think we win with consequential scoring from one or more of KK, Ash, K9 and Blanca.

 

[hoopsfan22]

No Paige = game could go either way.

 

[JoePgh]

I expect that Blanca, rather than Ashlynn or KK, will be UConn's third scorer. She will certainly get starter's minutes, even if she comes off the bench at the start of both halves.

I wonder how South Carolina will defend UConn's "small lineup", with Sarah, Blanca, and three guards. But I also wonder how UConn will defend both Edwards and Okot with that lineup. It's possible that Dawn will get Okot off the floor when UConn goes to its small lineup.

South Carolina had a lot of trouble, especially at the start of the game, against Texas's ballhawking press. Maybe now that they have experienced that from Texas, they will be prepared when UConn does the same thing.

I think the key to the game will be rebounding. Last year (I believe in both games against SC) UConn had a rebounding edge. If they can do that again, they will win again. But that may not be as easy as it was last year.

 

[oldude]

Well, no Paige this year and SC is considerably better and looking for revenge. And by the way, one of the Role (not Roll) players KK had 9 points in that game. I hope you're right, but I think we win with consequential scoring from one or more of KK, Ash, K9 and Blanca.

SC is “considerably better?” SC was looking for revenge last year after UConn ended their home court winning streak and they got stomped again by the Huskies in the final. This year the Gamecocks were soundly beaten by TX in the SEC Championship, the second time TX beat them. They also lost to a pretty average OK team and struggled to put away TCU in the Elite 8 until the 4th qtr.

Look, SC is a good team. But when Geno has the players, he always beats SC, and Geno has the players to match up with anyone SC has on their roster.

The only team that really concerns me is TX. The Longhorns are deep, talented and coached by the 2nd best coach in the FF.