Duke's gonna be really good

[Suebird10fan]

I'm not talking about this year, although it wouldn't be a shock to see them sneak into the final four, assuming they are lucky to get in Stanford's bracket.

But next year and especially the year after, Duke is going to be very, very tough to beat, at least for any team outside of Storrs. They've got two superstars in the making in Gray and Williams. They start a freshman and four sophomores right now and they're pretty good. They're playing without Henson and Wells. Henson didn't put up good numbers but everyone seems to think she has great potential. And Wells was putting up some outstanding numbers (4.0 Assists per game, 3.6 Steals and only 1.4 Turnovers!!!). And to top it off they bring in the Hoopgurlz number 3 recruit next year, Alexis Jones.

Next year Duke should be the third best team in the country. Two years from now there will be three tiers: UConn, who barring very serious injury or transfer problems, will be light years ahead of anyone but Duke. Duke, who, same caveats, will be way ahead of every team except for UConn. And every one else. Assuming the series continues for two more years, the game in Durham this time 2014 should be a doozy.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

i agree 100%

Duke is young and they will get better and have Alexis Jones coming in next season. They are gonna be tough.

I am happy for the Blue Devils.

 

[doggydaddy]

I'm not sold on their coach. We shall see.

 

[Suebird10fan]

By the way ... chin up TriadDukeFan

 

[sarals24]

Not sold on their coach either, or their offensive scheme. Haven't seen her develop any talent yet beyond what they came in with. We shall see. Based on talent alone they should be up there for the next few years, but so should Tennessee. Yes, in WCBB you can win a certain amount of games based on talent alone, but the true top programs develop it and sustain it.

 

[MilfordHusky]

When they add Jones and Griner leaves Baylor, Duke should be #2 in talent and perhaps also in the rankings.

 

[cardfan]

They are talented for sure, but I'll be impressed when I see them run an offense and less one on one play. That said, I expect to see them or MD in Fresno.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I think there is a presumption that talent unto itself is the sole criteria for being a "great team" and I know that UConn has a great deal of talent. I feel that it's having talent that defers "to the good of the whole" that makes the difference. If it were talent alone there were a number of times that Duke was at least as talented or maybe even more talented than the Huskies and were slaughtered by Geno and the kids. I think the present Duke coach might be better at coaching and motivating her team than her predecessor but I doubt that she gets as much out of her players as does Geno. I absolutely loved the way that Stokes defended Duke's vaunted freshman center and actually stuffed her a couple of times. The UConn defense is the real engine of their success and I feel that that's been the case for quite a while now. It sets up their offense wonderfully and is a wonderful tool.

 

[Buckaroobanzai]

When Duke demonstrates that it can consistently put the ball into the bucket, then I'll discuss how "great" they will be in the future. They have no real offensive scheme and, thus, will fall when they encounter an effective defense - which should be in the round of 16. Final four? Forget it.

 

[connboy77]

I'm not sold on their coach. We shall see.

I agree the only thing preventing Duke from being a great team the next few years is their coach!

 

[alexrgct]

Coach P's done a great job staying the course after GG's departure, continuing to recruit well, and keeping the program from experiencing a big dropoff. However, whereas G got her teams to the Final Four with some regularity, P has yet to do so at Duke. She's been a #1 seed in 2009, only to be upset early, and was a #2 in 2010 in a bracket where the #1 had been defeated. Yes, they would have needed to beat Griner, but that was not a great Baylor team by any stretch. So the opportunities have been there.

I do think the expected post-Griner dropoff at Baylor and the likely dropoff of ND next season should leave Duke with a big-time opportunity to shine along with some combination of A&M, Rutgers, Stanford, and maybe Tennessee depending on how a number of factors in Knoxville play out. We shall see.

Remember when the ACC had three of the four F4 teams and both of the championship participants? Seems like a long time ago, even though it wasn't especially.

 

[Icebear]

Personally, I think that JPM is a solid coach but with a very different system than GG. She is just now starting to achieve the success I expect from her.

What Duke is doing is showing that defense can win gamesin the ACC even without outstanding offense but last night we just beat them at that game. We do that to many teams.

 

[HuskyNan]

Coach P's done a great job staying the course after GG's departure, continuing to recruit well, and keeping the program from experiencing a big dropoff. However, whereas G got her teams to the Final Four with some regularity, P has yet to do so at Duke. She's been a #1 seed in 2009, only to be upset early, and was a #2 in 2010 in a bracket where the #1 had been defeated. Yes, they would have needed to beat Griner, but that was not a great Baylor team by any stretch. So the opportunities have been there.

Geno has maintained that a team needs All-American type players in order to win a championship. So I looked at Duke's media guide to see what GG's post-season record at Duke was vs Coach P.

Coach G
1992 no NCAA tourney
1993 no NCAA
1994 no NCAA
1995 lost 2nd round
1996 lost 2nd round
1997 lost 2nd round
1998 lost Elite 8
1999 lost in Championship game (Michelle Van Gorp, Georgia Schweitzer)
2000 lost Sweet 16 (Georgia Schweitzer) Won ACC tourney
2001 lost Sweet 16 (Georgia Schweitzer) Won ACC tourney
2002 Final Four (Alana Beard, Mo Currie, Iciss Tillis) Won ACC tourney
2003 Final Four (Alana Beard, Lindsay Harding, Iciss Tillis) Won ACC tourney
2004 lost Elite 8 (Lindsay Harding, Mo Currie, Iciss Tillis) Won ACC tourney
2005 lost Elite 8 (Mo Currie)
2006 lost Final Four (Lindsay Harding)
2007 lost Sweet 16 (Lindsay Harding, Alison Bales, Abby Waner)

Coach P
2008 lost Sweet 16 (Abby Waner, Chante Black)
2009 lost 2nd round (Chante Black)
2010 lost Elite 8 (Jasmine Thomas) Won ACC tourney
2011 lost Elite 8 (Jasmine Thomas) Won ACC tourney

I maintain that Coach P has done as well as Coach G as far as postseason records go. And don't forget, Coach G could get the 'deer in the headlights' look in big games. The Boneyard had a bit of fun with that a few times.

And for those who point to Duke's games UConn as a comparison of Coach G to Coach P, let's look at the series:

CONNECTICUT .............................................................3-8
Home 0-4 • Away 1-1 • Neutral 2-3
Jan. 11, 1980 .........H............................... Connecticut 81, Duke 69
Dec. 9, 1988 ..........N............................... Duke 83, Connecticut 69
Coach G
Nov. 13, 1998 ......... A .............................. Connecticut 104, Duke 74
Feb. 1, 2003...........H................................ Connecticut 77, Duke 65 Post-TASS group of Diana and a bunch of role players
Jan. 3, 2004 ........... A ................................ Duke 68, Connecticut 67 UConn was up by 20 something and folded, Harding hits last second 3 to win
Mar. 28, 2006 .........N....................... Duke 63, Connecticut 61 (OT) Possibly the worst UConn team in 10 years
Nov. 25, 2007 .........N................................ Connecticut 74, Duke 48
Coach P
Jan. 18, 2010 .........H................................ Connecticut 81, Duke 48
Jan. 31, 2011 ......... A ................................ Connecticut 87, Duke 51
Jan. 30, 2012..........H................................. Connecticut 65, Duke 41
Mar. 29, 2011 .........N .............................. Connecticut 75, Duke 40

 

[pap49cba]

Duke may well be good going forward but Geno owns Coach P.

 

[alexrgct]

I disagree. There is a huge difference between making the Final Four four times and the championship game twice (including a loss in the championship game in OT against a team it had to play four times- not sure why Duke's media guide undersells its 2006 season), and winning five ACC tourneys at time when the conference was stronger than it is now, and where Duke's gone under Coach P. Even 2007, which ended in a disappointing tourney finish, Duke looked like a legit contendeder. Duke under Coach P has not looked to me like a team ready for primetime. And losing in the second round as a #1 is shocking in WCBB.

BTW, that "neutral" court in 2006 was Bridgeport, I believe. I'd also take that 2006 UConn team over 2005 (definitely) and possibly 2007 (debatable) as well.

 

[ScarlettB]

I have to agree with Icebear about Coach P. She is a solid coach and I think she has done a great job in particular his year with a team who starts 4 sops and 1 frosh. As a fan of another team, one of the things that I find interesting about some of the Boneyarders is that they seem to think that the only coach in the game today who can coach a team to the national championship is Geno. Yes he is the best coach in WCBB, but there are others with solid credentials and teams that can win it all. Coach P brought her 2005 Michigan State team to the championship game and Kim Mulkey won that 2005 championship without B. Griner. I don't think Duke will win it all this year either, but that doesn't mean they aren't a good team or aren't well coached. They are young and have a lot of room to improve.

 

[Icebear]

I disagree. There is a huge difference between making the Final Four four times and the championship game twice (including a loss in the championship game in OT against a team it had to play four times- not sure why Duke's media guide undersells its 2006 season), and winning five ACC tourneys at time when the conference was stronger than it is now, and where Duke's gone under Coach P. Even 2007, which ended in a disappointing tourney finish, Duke looked like a legit contendeder. Duke under Coach P has not looked to me like a team ready for primetime. And losing in the second round as a #1 is shocking in WCBB.

But, alex, that was very early in her tenure and as I noted the style of play under JPM is very different and has required something of a transition. I think that JPM is ahead of the curve replacing GG. Each season has brought improvement under her after the initial reset.

 

[alexrgct]

But, alex, that was very early in her tenure and as I noted the style of play under JPM is very different and has required something of a transition. I think that JPM is ahead of the curve replacing GG. Each season has brought improvement under her after the initial reset.

That's fair, but they still lost (badly) to a #9 seed as a #1 in her second season. A #9 seed that P was coaching two seasons prior, which you'd think would have given her an advantage if anything. That's a bad loss any way you slice it.

I'm not saying she can't get Duke back that additional fraction of a level up to where they were under G, if not beyond...but I do think Duke is a small but significant step down from where they were. Certainly, she has a special player in EW and good recruits coming back from injury and in from high school, so the talent will be there.

 

[Icebear]

That's fair, but they still lost (badly) to a #9 seed as a #1 in her second season. A #9 seed that P was coaching two seasons prior, which you'd think would have given her an advantage if anything. That's a bad loss any way you slice it.

I'm not saying she can't get Duke back that additional fraction of a level up to where they were under G, if not beyond...but I do think Duke is a small but significant step down from where they were. Certainly, she has a special player in EW and good recruits coming back from injury and in from high school, so the talent will be there.

Yes, the last couple of recruiting class reports are very positive for Duke.

 

[UcMiami]

I think it is hard to judge any team off of a single game against Uconn, especially such a young team where most of the players are starting for the first time against us. Our defense is not something they will have seen before and it is a very disruptive defense. I just went to the Duke site to check their season stats (that include last night's game) and they are averaging 75.3 ppg, and limiting opponents to 53.2 ppg - a 22 ppg differential which is pretty good. They average 17 assists a game, a very respectable total that points to generally pretty good offensive sets. And while we certainly missed a fair number of open shots last night, compared to previous contests I was impressed with the speed with which they closed in on the outside shooters - I think that definitely had an effect on our 3 point shooting as we were looking a little rushed in those shots we did take, and were reluctant to take a number of them.
As coaches have said - Uconn can make good teams look awful. No idea how far this Duke team will go, but I think they have some solid talent and play good hard basketball. And they are very young and should continue to improve. I think they should be able to go to school on this game tape and be more prepared for other strong defensive teams.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Coach G
Nov. 13, 1998 ......... A .............................. Connecticut 104, Duke 74
Feb. 1, 2003...........H................................ Connecticut 77, Duke 65 Post-TASS group of Diana and a bunch of role players
Jan. 3, 2004 ........... A ................................ Duke 68, Connecticut 67 UConn was up by 20 something and folded, Harding hits last second 3 to win
Mar. 28, 2006 .........N....................... Duke 63, Connecticut 61 (OT) Possibly the worst UConn team in 10 years
Nov. 25, 2007 .........N................................ Connecticut 74, Duke 48
Coach P
Jan. 18, 2010 .........H................................ Connecticut 81, Duke 48
Jan. 31, 2011 ......... A ................................ Connecticut 87, Duke 51
Jan. 30, 2012..........H................................. Connecticut 65, Duke 41
Mar. 29, 2011 .........N .............................. Connecticut 75, Duke 40

Nan, the 2007 game was Coach P not Coach G. Gail went 2-2 against Geno.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think in the 2004 game that we lost 68-67, the lead was nearly 20. Not sure if it was over 20.

I'm sure that Foley, the kid from Australia, hit the 3 at the buzzer for the win.

 

[wallman]

Will the game be replayed? I was mad I missed it due to my grandsons party, well I am with him all the time JK!

 

[EricLA]

Not sold on their coach either, or their offensive scheme. Haven't seen her develop any talent yet beyond what they came in with. We shall see. Based on talent alone they should be up there for the next few years, but so should Tennessee. Yes, in WCBB you can win a certain amount of games based on talent alone, but the true top programs develop it and sustain it.

tennessee's not recruiting the same top tier recruits that Duke and UCONN are. after this year, i'd not be surprised to see them drop out of the top 10. certainly the top 5. unless they get russell and another 1 or 2 top 1o kids, they will remain far behind UCONN and Duke.

as for Duke, i agree. the talent is all there. it remains to be seen how the kids develop. but UCONN-Duke is going to be a fun battle the next few years...

 

[UcMiami]

Eric - TN already has a nice start on 2013 with Davis and you just never know in recruiting. I am certainly not counting them out of anything down the road. I do think they need to get the coaching issues fixed after this year as that has to be tough on the recruiting trail.
Side Bar: The one thing that sets Uconn recruiting off from most other programs is the way Geno focuses on a very few kids each year, rather than a sort of blanketing of top ranked players, and his willingness to walk away from great talent if he doesn't see the fit with his program.