Duke: The State of Duke Women's Basketball

[CamrnCrz1974]

Since I regularly have discussions with @ucbart , @HuskyNan , @EricLA , @CocoHusky , @vowelguy , and occasionally @JS about this topic, I figured I would post this for the entire Boneyard.

Apologies in advance, as it is an extremely long post (even by my posting standards).

The following excerpt is from the GoDuke.com release for this week's ACC/Big Ten Challenge:

With the win Saturday against Ball State, Duke head coach Joanne P. McCallie reached 300 wins at Duke in her 12 seasons. She became the quickest ACC coach to reach 300 wins at an institution in only 382 games.

McCallie was 15 quicker than the next closest coach, which was Kay Yow of NC State, which it took her 397 contests. In comparing two of the winningest coaches of all time Geno Auriemma (386) and Pat Summitt (397), Coach P was quicker than both of them.

In a vacuum, Duke's win total under Coach P looks very, very impressive. And it is -- 300 wins in 382 games (.78543). But Duke was an elite program BEFORE Coach P took over (her first season as head coach was 2007-08). And this statistic -- in a vacuum -- ignores where Duke was before and the trend of what Duke has become.

OVERALL RECORD (last 7 years of Gail Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Joanne P. McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 220-25 (89.79 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 98-8 (92.45 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 6 regular season ACC titles, 4 ACCT championships, 6 years finishing #1, 1 year finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 23-7 (one NCAA runner-up, three Final Fours, five years at least making the Elite Eight, all seven years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that using the last 7 seasons of Coach Gail Goestenkors' tenure at Duke is selectively including certain years and excluding others. To make the comparison more fair, I will include three additional years -- the last decade of Coach G vs. 11 years of Coach P.

OVERALL RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 301-46 (86.74 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 138-16 (89.61 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 8 regular season ACC titles, 5 ACCT championships, 8 years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 33-10 (four NCAA runner-up, four Final Fours, seven years at least making the Elite Eight, all ten years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that the ACC is a much better conference now, with the additions of Louisville and Notre Dame. But the ACC was very tough in the 1990s. In 1999, for example, Duke won the ACC regular season title and Duke and NC State both made the Final Four. But Clemson won the ACC Tournament, defeating UNC for the title (Clemson and UNC both lost in the Sweet 16 that year). Maryland and UNC both made the Final Four in 2006, along with Duke, and UNC made it again in 2007. In Goestenkors' last 10 years, UNC made the Final Four twice, at least the Elite Eight four times, and at least the Sweet 16 seven times. Virginia made the Elite Eight in consecutive years in the mid-1990s (and three straight Final Fours in the early 1990s) and was still an ACC threat, winning the conference regular season championship (but Duke won the ACCT) in 1999-2000.

So while there was not a Notre Dame (another school that was consistently making the Final Four), there were schools like Louisville (Final Four contender in recent years) and Syracuse (surprise appearance in the Final Four), plus school like Florida State (multiple Elite Eight appearances while Coach P has been at Duke).

And I think that is where the issue is, as a Duke graduate and a Duke fan. Duke WAS the "Notre Dame" in Goestenkors' last 10 years, making 4 Final Four appearances and 7 Elite Eight appearances. Since McCallie has been at Duke (11 years), Notre Dame has 6 Final Four appearances, with one title, and 7 Elite Eight appearances).

And looking at McCallie's 11 years at Duke does not take into account the following -- the direction of the program, based on the last five years.

OVERALL RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 123-45 (73.21 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 55-25 (68.75 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: Zero regular season ACC titles, Zero ACCT championships, Zero years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 6-4 (Zero Final Fours, Zero Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 2 Second Round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)


When Goestenkors left and McCallie took over, Duke had eight McDonald's All-Americans on the roster (six returning players and two incoming recruits). Duke was a premiere destination school, with the program having 2 MCDAA players in the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.

Now?

Duke has had one top ten player (Leaonna Odom) in the past four recruiting classes (20-16, 2017, 2018, 2019) and two other top 20 recruits (Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin). Duke has had 8 players in the last three classes with at least one recruiting rating over 100.

SUMMARY:
While the number of wins -- 300 wins in 382 games -- looks great overall, it does not consider that Duke was a truly elite program with elite talent/recruits/players and that the program's status has SIGNIFICANTLY dropped. Duke was a national powerhouse and a perennial Final Four contender. No more.

 

[HawkHusky]

I really liked Goestenkors. She just seemed like the kind of coach that players love to play for.

 

[JordyG]

Since I regularly have discussions with @ucbart , @HuskyNan , @EricLA , @CocoHusky , @vowelguy , and occasionally @JS about this topic, I figured I would post this for the entire Boneyard.

Apologies in advance, as it is an extremely long post (even by my posting standards).

The following excerpt is from the GoDuke.com release for this week's ACC/Big Ten Challenge:



In a vacuum, Duke's win total under Coach P looks very, very impressive. And it is -- 300 wins in 382 games (.78543). But Duke was an elite program BEFORE Coach P took over (her first season as head coach was 2007-08). And this statistic -- in a vacuum -- ignores where Duke was before and the trend of what Duke has become.

OVERALL RECORD (last 7 years of Gail Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Joanne P. McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 220-25 (89.79 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 98-8 (92.45 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 6 regular season ACC titles, 4 ACCT championships, 6 years finishing #1, 1 year finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 23-7 (one NCAA runner-up, three Final Fours, five years at least making the Elite Eight, all seven years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that using the last 7 seasons of Coach Gail Goestenkors' tenure at Duke is selectively including certain years and excluding others. To make the comparison more fair, I will include three additional years -- the last decade of Coach G vs. 11 years of Coach P.

OVERALL RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 301-46 (86.74 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 138-16 (89.61 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 8 regular season ACC titles, 5 ACCT championships, 8 years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 33-10 (four NCAA runner-up, four Final Fours, seven years at least making the Elite Eight, all ten years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that the ACC is a much better conference now, with the additions of Louisville and Notre Dame. But the ACC was very tough in the 1990s. In 1999, for example, Duke won the ACC regular season title and Duke and NC State both made the Final Four. But Clemson won the ACC Tournament, defeating UNC for the title (Clemson and UNC both lost in the Sweet 16 that year). Maryland and UNC both made the Final Four in 2006, along with Duke, and UNC made it again in 2007. In Goestenkors' last 10 years, UNC made the Final Four twice, at least the Elite Eight four times, and at least the Sweet 16 seven times. Virginia made the Elite Eight in consecutive years in the mid-1990s (and three straight Final Fours in the early 1990s) and was still an ACC threat, winning the conference regular season championship (but Duke won the ACCT) in 1999-2000.

So while there was not a Notre Dame (another school that was consistently making the Final Four), there were schools like Louisville (Final Four contender in recent years) and Syracuse (surprise appearance in the Final Four), plus school like Florida State (multiple Elite Eight appearances while Coach P has been at Duke).

And I think that is where the issue is, as a Duke graduate and a Duke fan. Duke WAS the "Notre Dame" in Goestenkors' last 10 years, making 4 Final Four appearances and 7 Elite Eight appearances. Since McCallie has been at Duke (11 years), Notre Dame has 6 Final Four appearances, with one title, and 7 Elite Eight appearances).

And looking at McCallie's 11 years at Duke does not take into account the following -- the direction of the program, based on the last five years.

OVERALL RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 123-45 (73.21 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 55-25 (68.75 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: Zero regular season ACC titles, Zero ACCT championships, Zero years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 6-4 (Zero Final Fours, Zero Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 2 Second Round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)


When Goestenkors left and McCallie took over, Duke had eight McDonald's All-Americans on the roster (six returning players and two incoming recruits). Duke was a premiere destination school, with the program having 2 MCDAA players in the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.

Now?

Duke has had one top ten player (Leaonna Odom) in the past four recruiting classes (20-16, 2017, 2018, 2019) and two other top 20 recruits (Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin). Duke has had 8 players in the last three classes with at least one recruiting rating over 100.

SUMMARY:
While the number of wins -- 300 wins in 382 games -- looks great overall, it does not consider that Duke was a truly elite program with elite talent/recruits/players and that the program's status has SIGNIFICANTLY dropped. Duke was a national powerhouse and a perennial Final Four contender. No more.

Good, insightful, honest post by a dedicated WCBB fan that happens to root for Duke. I have to be honest. I root for Duke in every game they play except for the rare occasions they play UConn. There, I said it. It kind of crept up on me over the years. Although I sometimes tease triaddukefan I feel for him and the helpless misery many Dukies like you feel right now.

 

[cabbie191]

Cameron: Thanks for sharing.

Do you have a perspective as to relative OOC strength of schedule between the two coaches?

 

[oldude]

While Duke and UConn did meet up in the Sweet 16 last year, the regular season matchups ended 3 years ago after a string of one-sided games. Once upon a time, Duke-UConn was must see TV. Much like TN, I miss the old rivalry with Duke.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I suspect an analysis of Holly Warlick would look similar. Good W-L record in a vacuum, but clearly the program is not on the same level as it was during the previous coaching tenure.

What do you do? School administrations at both seem to be fine with status quo. Certainly they could bring in a better coach, but it could get worse too with a switch.

 

[Fightin Choke]

My heart aches for you. It's like the Faust years for Notre Dame, or the Davie years. Or pretty much everyone since Holtz (except maybe Kelly?) It's like watching an accident in slow motion, knowing there is nothing you can do to stop it. It's like tracking global warming. Each year you get more evidence that backs the theory, but it never seems to be enough for the US to really make significant changes. I think (hope) this is the year that McCallie gets the ax. Duke's recruiting has dropped precipitously AND on court performance is surprising bad, even given my low expectations; but it HAS to look really bad for her to finally get replaced. Duke fans have suffered long enough. A losing record in the ACC would help the cause.

 

[IrishTiger]

My heart aches for you. It's like the Faust years for Notre Dame, or the Davie years. Or pretty much everyone since Holtz (except maybe Kelly?) It's like watching an accident in slow motion, knowing there is nothing you can do to stop it. It's like tracking global warming. Each year you get more evidence that backs the theory, but it never seems to be enough for the US to really make significant changes. I think (hope) this is the year that McCallie gets the ax. Duke's recruiting has dropped precipitously AND on court performance is surprising bad, even given my low expectations; but it HAS to look really bad for her to finally get replaced. Duke fans have suffered long enough. A losing record in the ACC would help the cause.

Kelly is a really good coach and has done well. He’s the best coach since Holtz.

 

[UConn82]

I did not think your post was too long.

It was thoughtful and informative.

You deserve better as a loyal fan. It must be tough.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Do you have a perspective as to relative OOC strength of schedule between the two coaches?

I do not have a specific OOC comparison. I can research that issue.

But I researched a similar issue in February 2016, and I comparing predecessor Gail Goestenkors' last 7 years at Duke with Joanne P. McCallie's 8.5 years (including over half of 2015-16) at Duke:

Against Top 5 Opponents:
Goestenkors: 14-14 (50.00 percent)
McCallie: 7-28 (20.00 percent)

Against Top 10 Opponents:
Goestenkors: 25-14 (64.10 percent)
McCallie: 19-36 (34.545 percent)

Against Ranked Opponents:
Goestenkors: 60-20 (80.00 percent)
McCallie: 58-49 (54.21 percent)

Against UConn:
Goestenkors: 2-1 (2-2 for her career; 2-1 against UConn over her last seven years; both wins in the State of Connecticut)
McCallie: 0-8 (and only one loss was less than 22 points, and that was by 16 points)

Against Tennessee:
Goestenkors: 4-3 (5-4 for her career; 4-3 against Tennessee over her last seven years)
McCallie: 1-1

Note that the ranked opponents would include ACC and non-conference opponents. I will have to break it down and compare ranked non-conference opponents between the two coaches and expand the parameters to Coach G’s last 10 years and McCallie’s 11 years (not including this season).

 

[bantamlaker]

While Duke and UConn did meet up in the Sweet 16 last year, the regular season matchups ended 3 years ago after a string of one-sided games. Once upon a time, Duke-UConn was must see TV. Much like TN, I miss the old rivalry with Duke.

For awhile a rivalry second only to TN in importance. I remember flying back to Hartford on 2/1/2003 (memory not that good - had to look up the date), the night 20-0 UConn with DT was playing undefeated Duke with Alana Beard. The pilot would give us scores during the flight. Finally, when he announced it’s over, UConn 77 Duke 65, the passengers cheered so wildly you would have thought the pilot had landed a damaged plane on the Hudson River.
Duke would go 35-2 losing to TN in the semis and we would beat TN in the finals for the 2nd of what would be 3 championships in a row.
Definitely miss those old rivalries !

 

[triaddukefan]

 

[Bama fan]

Since I regularly have discussions with @ucbart , @HuskyNan , @EricLA , @CocoHusky , @vowelguy , and occasionally @JS about this topic, I figured I would post this for the entire Boneyard.

Apologies in advance, as it is an extremely long post (even by my posting standards).

The following excerpt is from the GoDuke.com release for this week's ACC/Big Ten Challenge:



In a vacuum, Duke's win total under Coach P looks very, very impressive. And it is -- 300 wins in 382 games (.78543). But Duke was an elite program BEFORE Coach P took over (her first season as head coach was 2007-08). And this statistic -- in a vacuum -- ignores where Duke was before and the trend of what Duke has become.

OVERALL RECORD (last 7 years of Gail Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Joanne P. McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 220-25 (89.79 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 98-8 (92.45 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 6 regular season ACC titles, 4 ACCT championships, 6 years finishing #1, 1 year finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 23-7 (one NCAA runner-up, three Final Fours, five years at least making the Elite Eight, all seven years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that using the last 7 seasons of Coach Gail Goestenkors' tenure at Duke is selectively including certain years and excluding others. To make the comparison more fair, I will include three additional years -- the last decade of Coach G vs. 11 years of Coach P.

OVERALL RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 301-46 (86.74 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 138-16 (89.61 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 8 regular season ACC titles, 5 ACCT championships, 8 years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 33-10 (four NCAA runner-up, four Final Fours, seven years at least making the Elite Eight, all ten years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that the ACC is a much better conference now, with the additions of Louisville and Notre Dame. But the ACC was very tough in the 1990s. In 1999, for example, Duke won the ACC regular season title and Duke and NC State both made the Final Four. But Clemson won the ACC Tournament, defeating UNC for the title (Clemson and UNC both lost in the Sweet 16 that year). Maryland and UNC both made the Final Four in 2006, along with Duke, and UNC made it again in 2007. In Goestenkors' last 10 years, UNC made the Final Four twice, at least the Elite Eight four times, and at least the Sweet 16 seven times. Virginia made the Elite Eight in consecutive years in the mid-1990s (and three straight Final Fours in the early 1990s) and was still an ACC threat, winning the conference regular season championship (but Duke won the ACCT) in 1999-2000.

So while there was not a Notre Dame (another school that was consistently making the Final Four), there were schools like Louisville (Final Four contender in recent years) and Syracuse (surprise appearance in the Final Four), plus school like Florida State (multiple Elite Eight appearances while Coach P has been at Duke).

And I think that is where the issue is, as a Duke graduate and a Duke fan. Duke WAS the "Notre Dame" in Goestenkors' last 10 years, making 4 Final Four appearances and 7 Elite Eight appearances. Since McCallie has been at Duke (11 years), Notre Dame has 6 Final Four appearances, with one title, and 7 Elite Eight appearances).

And looking at McCallie's 11 years at Duke does not take into account the following -- the direction of the program, based on the last five years.

OVERALL RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 123-45 (73.21 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 55-25 (68.75 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: Zero regular season ACC titles, Zero ACCT championships, Zero years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 6-4 (Zero Final Fours, Zero Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 2 Second Round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)


When Goestenkors left and McCallie took over, Duke had eight McDonald's All-Americans on the roster (six returning players and two incoming recruits). Duke was a premiere destination school, with the program having 2 MCDAA players in the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.

Now?

Duke has had one top ten player (Leaonna Odom) in the past four recruiting classes (20-16, 2017, 2018, 2019) and two other top 20 recruits (Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin). Duke has had 8 players in the last three classes with at least one recruiting rating over 100.

SUMMARY:
While the number of wins -- 300 wins in 382 games -- looks great overall, it does not consider that Duke was a truly elite program with elite talent/recruits/players and that the program's status has SIGNIFICANTLY dropped. Duke was a national powerhouse and a perennial Final Four contender. No more.

I liked Gail G. when she was coaching Duke. I never understood why she failed so miserably at Texas.

 

[HopJim]

Since I regularly have discussions with @ucbart , @HuskyNan , @EricLA , @CocoHusky , @vowelguy , and occasionally @JS about this topic, I figured I would post this for the entire Boneyard.

Apologies in advance, as it is an extremely long post (even by my posting standards).

The following excerpt is from the GoDuke.com release for this week's ACC/Big Ten Challenge:



In a vacuum, Duke's win total under Coach P looks very, very impressive. And it is -- 300 wins in 382 games (.78543). But Duke was an elite program BEFORE Coach P took over (her first season as head coach was 2007-08). And this statistic -- in a vacuum -- ignores where Duke was before and the trend of what Duke has become.

OVERALL RECORD (last 7 years of Gail Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Joanne P. McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 220-25 (89.79 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 98-8 (92.45 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 6 regular season ACC titles, 4 ACCT championships, 6 years finishing #1, 1 year finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 7 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 23-7 (one NCAA runner-up, three Final Fours, five years at least making the Elite Eight, all seven years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that using the last 7 seasons of Coach Gail Goestenkors' tenure at Duke is selectively including certain years and excluding others. To make the comparison more fair, I will include three additional years -- the last decade of Coach G vs. 11 years of Coach P.

OVERALL RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of McCallie not including this season):
Goestenkors: 301-46 (86.74 percent)
McCallie: 297-80 (78.77 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 138-16 (89.61 percent)
McCallie: 132-38 (77.65 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 8 regular season ACC titles, 5 ACCT championships, 8 years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2
McCallie: 4 regular season ACC titles, 3 ACCT championships, 4 years finishing #1,2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #3, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 10 years of Goestenkors vs. 11 years of Coach P, not including this season):
Goestenkors: 33-10 (four NCAA runner-up, four Final Fours, seven years at least making the Elite Eight, all ten years at least making the Sweet 16)
McCallie: 21-10 (zero Final Fours, four Elite Eights, seven years at least making the Sweet 16, three second round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)

Now, one could argue that the ACC is a much better conference now, with the additions of Louisville and Notre Dame. But the ACC was very tough in the 1990s. In 1999, for example, Duke won the ACC regular season title and Duke and NC State both made the Final Four. But Clemson won the ACC Tournament, defeating UNC for the title (Clemson and UNC both lost in the Sweet 16 that year). Maryland and UNC both made the Final Four in 2006, along with Duke, and UNC made it again in 2007. In Goestenkors' last 10 years, UNC made the Final Four twice, at least the Elite Eight four times, and at least the Sweet 16 seven times. Virginia made the Elite Eight in consecutive years in the mid-1990s (and three straight Final Fours in the early 1990s) and was still an ACC threat, winning the conference regular season championship (but Duke won the ACCT) in 1999-2000.

So while there was not a Notre Dame (another school that was consistently making the Final Four), there were schools like Louisville (Final Four contender in recent years) and Syracuse (surprise appearance in the Final Four), plus school like Florida State (multiple Elite Eight appearances while Coach P has been at Duke).

And I think that is where the issue is, as a Duke graduate and a Duke fan. Duke WAS the "Notre Dame" in Goestenkors' last 10 years, making 4 Final Four appearances and 7 Elite Eight appearances. Since McCallie has been at Duke (11 years), Notre Dame has 6 Final Four appearances, with one title, and 7 Elite Eight appearances).

And looking at McCallie's 11 years at Duke does not take into account the following -- the direction of the program, based on the last five years.

OVERALL RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 123-45 (73.21 percent)

ACC RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 55-25 (68.75 percent)

ACC FINISHES (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: Zero regular season ACC titles, Zero ACCT championships, Zero years finishing #1, 2 years finishing #2, 2 years finishing #4, 1 year finishing #7

NCAA RECORD (last 5 years of Coach P, not including this season):
McCallie: 6-4 (Zero Final Fours, Zero Elite Eights, 2 Sweet 16s, 2 Second Round losses, one year missing the NCAAT altogether)


When Goestenkors left and McCallie took over, Duke had eight McDonald's All-Americans on the roster (six returning players and two incoming recruits). Duke was a premiere destination school, with the program having 2 MCDAA players in the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.

Now?

Duke has had one top ten player (Leaonna Odom) in the past four recruiting classes (20-16, 2017, 2018, 2019) and two other top 20 recruits (Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin). Duke has had 8 players in the last three classes with at least one recruiting rating over 100.

SUMMARY:
While the number of wins -- 300 wins in 382 games -- looks great overall, it does not consider that Duke was a truly elite program with elite talent/recruits/players and that the program's status has SIGNIFICANTLY dropped. Duke was a national powerhouse and a perennial Final Four contender. No more.

Curious what motivates to write such a lengthy assessment about a team you may or may not root for. I don't write this much about my own children.

 

[ucbart]

I liked Gail G. when she was coaching Duke. I never understood why she failed so miserably at Texas.

She wasn't a Texas gal with Texas roots. Very hard to recruit a state where you don't have any ties to it.

 

[Bama fan]

She wasn't a Texas gal with Texas roots. Very hard to recruit a state where you don't have any ties to it.

I get that, but she was not from North Carolina either. Is Texas unique it its somewhat zenophobic attitude toward a coach's place of origin? I do not know one way or the other. Certainly recruiting is an Achilles heel of some coaches. Thanks for your input.

 

[bballnut90]

It's sad to see what's happened to the program under P....but I do love your breakdown posts, Cam. I hope Duke eventually finds a solid replacement who is more capable...Duke was a powerhouse under Gail. I'll also chime in and say it's also worth noting is the frequency of #1 rankings under each coach. Regardless of where a team finishes, there's something to be said for staying a power throughout the regular season, especially during the "meaty" part of January-early March when rankings are starting to take a more accurate shape:

Look at the last 7 years of Coach G:
2007-preseason #6, steadily climbed to #1 and remained #1 from mid-January until tournament started
2006-preseason #1, remained #1 or 2 all year besides 2 weeks at #4.
2005-preseason #6, climbed to #1 by January for 3 weeks. Was ranked 1, 2, or 3 for most of the season.
2004-preseason #2, was ranked #1-#4 all season
2003-preseason #1, held ranking until mid-January and was #2 rest of year
2002-preseason #5, struggled early but was ranked in top 3-5 from January until end of year
2001-preseason #4, was ranked between 3-5 all year besides 1 week


So for 7 consecutive years Duke was in the top 5 almost the entire time.
*They were also top 5 almost the entirety of January-end of season during those 7 years.

Duke also achieved #1 rankings in her last 5 seasons.
*Gail was the only coach during that period to be ranked #1 in all 5 seasons. She also achieved #1 rankings in January or February in all 5 seasons.
*For comparison sake, Connecticut was only ranked #1 during 2 of those 5 years.

Now if you look at her production vs. the McCallie years you have:
2008-preseason #10, ranked between 9-15 all year.
2009-preseason #8, spent about half the year ranked between 3-6
2010-preseason #6, ranked between 6-11 all year. Never cracked top 5.
2011-preseason #6, ranked between 3-6 almost all year. Never cracked top 2.
2012-preseason #8, ranked between 5-9 all year. Peaked at 5.
2013-preseason #3, ranked between 3-5 all year.
2014-preseason #2, ranked top 3 until February
2015-preseason #7, spent almost all year between 10-17
2016-preseason #14, was ranked 12-14 until January, fell out of rankings for good in mid-Jan
2017-not ranked in preseason, lurked their way back into relevance in late December and spent most of year between 9-15.
2018-preseason #12, ranked between 14-20 most of the year.
2019-preseason #20, currently unranked

In 11 years she has spent 7 season being ranked outside the top 5 most of the year.
In 11 years, she has had 6 years where she never cracked the top 5.
In 11 years, she has never earned a #1 ranking after GG handed over the program to her that achieved #1 status the previous 5 years


Pretty telling stats.

I'll also point out that most of the success that P rode was based off:
1. ACC weakening big time from 2008-2013. During this time frame we didn't see 1 ACC team make the Final Four. Big time power North Carolina plunged downward and Maryland dropped off big time after 2009. Duke was able to beat up a weaker conference for much of 2009-2013 which inflated their ranking much of the year.

2. GG's recruits. From 2008-2011, all major contributors were recruited by GG.

3. Lexie Brown transferring in. She made Duke a much better team in 2017 and 2018 after an abysmal 2016 season. Still, they were never in the national picture nor were they considered a strong Final Four threat. Now that she's gone, Duke appears to be abysmal again.

To her credit, I will point out that I thought she had a good run with Duke from 2012-2014 when she put together good teams with her own players. 2013 and 2014 could've been Final Four teams with a healthy Chelsea Gray (and Alexis Jones)...I don't think there's any questioning that.


Overall though, the program has clearly been trending downward ever since P took over. There is understandably going to be a struggle period under new leadership where it'll take time for players to adjust, but she's been there for 11 years now and has never come close to replicating the success that GG had. She's never had a team be a realistic title threat or even a Final Four favorite.
I don't think there's ever been a game I've watched with her team where I thought, "Wow. This team has a chance to win it all" where you felt like that at some point every year under GG.

Time will tell what happens for P and Duke, but I think the outlook is bleak.

Similarly, I think Holly Warlick has Tennessee down a very similar path. The only difference is she's recruiting better than GG, but her teams never look good, no one respects Tennessee as a plausible title threat, and there's no question the program is steadily trending downward even if she lands a top 10 kid almost every year.

 

[DefenseBB]

Yes, as we all have noted on this Forum too many times to count, Duke has dropped from stature from the days of GG. We have also noted that in the 40+ years of WCBB in Title 9 era, no school has been able to sustain top echelon status after the preeminent standard bearer left the program- ie LaTech, Old Dominio, Texas, Tenn, Duke (to some extent as they didn’t win any titles).
In other words, all great programs suffer after their star coach retires, resigns, or leaves, ND and UConn will probably suffer the same fates.
The real question is given the money Duke puts into WCBB are they getting an ROI on their money? That answer has been yes despite program concerns raised by players a few years ago, to wit she was an given extension thru 2021 at $900-$1mm per year.
There is very little chance of Duke buying her out even if this year is a disaster. Buying out Women’s sports coaches just doesn’t happen especially with 2 years and estimated $2 million in salary left.
The current winning percentage in the new, more competitive landscape is still pretty good.
I do not expect her contract to get extended before then nor do I think Duke will retain her if her current trend continues.
This is different than Sylvia Hatchell or C.Vivian Stringer who built their programs at their schools though I do think JPM is a significantly better coach at this point than either of them.
Sorry Triad and Cameron....

 

[shizam]

Duke is 2-12 (16%) verse ND, Lville and Fl State in last 4 yrs
ND 0-6 (2 tourney losses)
L’ville 1-3
Fl State 1-3

Since joining ACC ND is a perfect 9-0 verse Duke including 3 ACC tourney eliminations.

Duke 2015 #1 recruiting class didn’t work out.
Salvadores left to go pro in Spain
Gorecki is good but injuries have slowed her.
Lambert injured
Primm didn’t come around.
Suggs is very avg.
UCONN had the actual best class w
Samuelson and Collier
Second was L’ville w Durr and Fuehring

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I get that, but she was not from North Carolina either. Is Texas unique it its somewhat zenophobic attitude toward a coach's place of origin? I do not know one way or the other. Certainly recruiting is an Achilles heel of some coaches. Thanks for your input.

It apparently had to do with Texas recruiting. Whether you want to blame her as being from elsewhere, missteps relating to the actual recruiting or, what I had heard, missteps with some Texas alums that soured a lot of folks on her, I can't be 100% specific, but it was apparently somewhere in all of that.

It isn't unique, Vivian at Rutgers faced a perception when she came that she wasn't interested in local coaches and talent - it wasn't exactly true, but it was and at times still is an odd perception.

As to not being from North Carolina, that isn't Duke's "hot bed" of recruiting because of the academics.

 

[oldude]

She wasn't a Texas gal with Texas roots. Very hard to recruit a state where you don't have any ties to it.

So how do you explain the success of Kim Mulkey from Santa Ana, CA who played and coached at Louisiana Tech prior to taking the HC job at Baylor?

 

[Fightin Choke]

So how do you explain the success of Kim Mulkey from Santa Anna, CA who played at Louisiana Tech?

Maybe because she plays the part? She doesn't dress like she's from Santa Anna.

 

[oldude]

Maybe because she plays the part? She doesn't dress like she's from Santa Anna.

 

[hoopsfan22]

So how do you explain the success of Kim Mulkey from Santa Ana, CA who played and coached at Louisiana Tech prior to taking the HC job at Baylor?

Mulkey was born in Santa Ana, and that's basically it. I would guess she doesn't even consider that her home town because she probably barely remembers it as she spent much of her childhood living and playing basketball in Louisiana. I mean you guys have heard Mulkey at a press conference... she has that deep south drawl and I've heard her say one time to the press that "y'all are city slickers and need to grow up in the country" or something to that effect. Mulkey is about as far from California as she is Connecticut.

 

[oldude]

Mulkey was born in Santa Ana, and that's basically it. I would guess she doesn't even consider that her home town because she probably barely remembers it as she spent much of her childhood living and playing basketball in Louisiana. I mean you guys have heard Mulkey at a press conference... she has that deep south drawl and I've heard her say one time to the press that "y'all are city slickers and need to grow up in the country" or something to that effect. Mulkey is about as far from California as she is Connecticut.

I get that Kim now looks and acts like she was raised in West TX, but I don’t buy that her success at Baylor is the result of her persona, as opposed to the fact that she’s an outstanding coach and recruiter.

When Kim arrived in Waco, she took over a 7-20 team that was last in the conference. The Lady Bears made the NCAA tournament in her first year and have won over 20 games every year since. Kim can flat out coach. That’s why she is successful.