Duke Attendance

[visitingcock]

They have had the age thing (including polls) periodically. The Boneyard tends older, in fact quite old - there are (or have been) posters in their 90's. I'm in my mid 60's, a bit younger than many.

Same age +/- as you.

 

[DefenseBB]

These threads take on such a divergent life of their own, that many posts forget the main point, which on this thread, Duke attendance has dropped 46% from last year and 59% from the recent 10 year average. This is occurring as this team is a better version than any of the last 10 years. None of the reasons postulated by our many fine colleagues explains why. Did Kara turn off many fans by her style/personality?

This is not a demographic issue. Many, many teams- elite (UConn/SC), good (Iowa/Indiana/Iowa State) or even below average (Texas Tech/Mich State) are drawing well this year.

The Duke attendance will get a boost when NC fans (5-8,000) and NC State (5,000) fans come to Cameron but the overall attendance will still be way down from last year.

While the trend down started with JPM from 2013-2020, it took a huge hit this year. JPM's last year in 2020 had 3,417 vs. Kara's 2022 season of 3,018 to now 1,620-Why?

 

[visitingcock]

These threads take on such a divergent life of their own, that many posts forget the main point, which on this thread, Duke attendance has dropped 46% from last year and 59% from the recent 10 year average. This is occurring as this team is a better version than any of the last 10 years. None of the reasons postulated by our many fine colleagues explains why. Did Kara turn off many fans by her style/personality?

This is not a demographic issue. Many, many teams- elite (UConn/SC), good (Iowa/Indiana/Iowa State) or even below average (Texas Tech/Mich State) are drawing well this year.

The Duke attendance will get a boost when NC fans (5-8,000) and NC State (5,000) fans come to Cameron but the overall attendance will still be way down from last year.

While the trend down started with JPM from 2013-2020, it took a huge hit this year. JPM's last year in 2020 had 3,417 vs. Kara's 2022 season of 3,018 to now 1,620-Why?

Duke, this year and I assume last year, is primarily built on Defense and is very weak offensively. It's the exact opposite of the very popular Iowa teams. Fans aren't wild about the low scoring games. Using Massey's numbers, Duke is ranked 80th in Offense and 2nd in Defense. In terms of actual points scored, Duke's 56.7 ppg is much lower ranked (155th) while their defense gives up only 50.2 ppg.

That's not gonna generate much excitement to casual fans that you hope to turn into more supportive fans. It's gonna take some years of success to build a fanbase that will be drawn to these low scoring affairs (said by a defense-is-the-key-to-winning Gamecock) A flash in the rankings won't do it. It takes sustained success and offensive improvement.

Good luck to Duke.

 

[DefenseBB]

Duke, this year and I assume last year, is primarily built on Defense and is very weak offensively. It's the exact opposite of the very popular Iowa teams. Fans aren't wild about the low scoring games. Using Massey's numbers, Duke is ranked 80th in Offense and 2nd in Defense. In terms of actual points scored, Duke's 56.7 ppg is much lower ranked (155th) while their defense gives up only 50.2 ppg.

That's not gonna generate much excitement to casual fans that you hope to turn into more supportive fans. It's gonna take some years of success to build a fanbase that will be drawn to these low scoring affairs (said by a defense-is-the-key-to-winning Gamecock) A flash in the rankings won't do it. It takes sustained success and offensive improvement.

Good luck to Duke.

Um, color me skeptical as Vic at Texas and MSU built historically defensive minded teams that could struggle scoring at times and heck, your own team at SC is built on defense, not offense so not sure your logic holds but maybe. To me, she isn't doing enough out-reach which is the lifeblood of any growing program. Dawn, Vic and Kim have all talked openly about how they met with the community to garner support. Even JPM was seen and heard more than a few times working the palm shake.

That said, one of the things she is showing is she can coach with a confidence and arrogance that has to be put aside when trying to garner support. The cancellation of the 2020-21 season, comments about basketball size and a few other press snippets have me scratching my head. Look, she came from Tennessee and may not understand all the grass roots efforts that Pat did in the early days to grow that support to the 14k fans they attracted during their heyday when Kara was there. Mine is solely conjecture and not worth a hill of beans, only showing the data and trying to make conclusions.

I am curious what @CamrnCrz1974 has to say as he is a known entity on the Duke board and may be able to shed some light.

 

[visitingcock]

Um, color me skeptical as Vic at Texas and MSU built historically defensive minded teams that could struggle scoring at times and heck, your own team at SC is built on defense, not offense so not sure your logic holds but maybe. To me, she isn't doing enough out-reach which is the lifeblood of any growing program. Dawn, Vic and Kim have all talked openly about how they met with the community to garner support. Even JPM was seen and heard more than a few times working the palm shake.

That said, one of the things she is showing is she can coach with a confidence and arrogance that has to be put aside when trying to garner support. The cancellation of the 2020-21 season, comments about basketball size and a few other press snippets have me scratching my head. Look, she came from Tennessee and may not understand all the grass roots efforts that Pat did in the early days to grow that support to the 14k fans they attracted during their heyday when Kara was there. Mine is solely conjecture and not worth a hill of beans, only showing the data and trying to make conclusions.

I am curious what @CamrnCrz1974 has to say as he is a known entity on the Duke board and may be able to shed some light.

I get your point, but Vic and Kim came with Monster names as coaches - and produced from the get-go. Dawn came with a monster name as a player and worked the grassroots and local fans HARD. (Yes, Pat was great at the grassroots work).

Yes, Duke can build greatly and a high end of year ranking could help justify the low scoring. You are also right she needs to work the fans at a grass roots. As with Southern football and politics, ya' gotta work the fried chicken circuit.

 

[Blue Huskie]

I'm shocked at Stanford. A great product nearly every year and it's that low? Maples holds over 7K and when I see them on TV it seems pretty full. Mystery to me.

 

[Ladeeeeda]

Duke, this year and I assume last year, is primarily built on Defense and is very weak offensively. It's the exact opposite of the very popular Iowa teams. Fans aren't wild about the low scoring games. Using Massey's numbers, Duke is ranked 80th in Offense and 2nd in Defense. In terms of actual points scored, Duke's 56.7 ppg is much lower ranked (155th) while their defense gives up only 50.2 ppg.

That's not gonna generate much excitement to casual fans that you hope to turn into more supportive fans. It's gonna take some years of success to build a fanbase that will be drawn to these low scoring affairs (said by a defense-is-the-key-to-winning Gamecock) A flash in the rankings won't do it. It takes sustained success and offensive improvement.

Good luck to Duke.

Lol...Duke's "plan" isn't to be a Defensive team forever. The team is this way bc of the personnel that is there right now. None of them have ever been strong offensive performers with the exception of Day-Wilson and the current Freshmen class.

 

[azfan]

I have heard that a lot of administrators from other schools have visited Grand Canyon to see if there are any ideas that they can bring back with them. I am probably biased from knowing their AD from earlier in her career, but she has been a part of an impressive group there and certainly should be on the radar for power conference schools looking for a new AD in the future.

A conversation between the Antelope AD and a power 5 conference would be very interesting. As you know Grand Canyon is a Christian college and a number of the staff within and without of the athletic department are there for the Christian environment.

I may have shared the first time that I attended a Grand Canyon game the national anthem was played 10 minutes before the tip. Before tip off the president of the student body came to Center Court and led a prayer.

Ingrained in the culture there is religion. So the Grand Canyon AD might be well suited for Baylor or another power five School with that kind of institutional framework. I'm not sure how many power five jobs would fall into a category that would be of interest to the AD.

That said the AD is leading a tremendous effort to showcase women's basketball. The experience in West Phoenix is much closer to what the kitties present in McKale rather than the really woeful disappointment that's called staging women's basketball at Desert Financial.Arena.

Tomorrow my birthday I'm reconsidering my tradition of driving down the I 17 to watch the Devil's lose to the Buffs.

In past years celebrating my birthday watching the Devils has always been wonderful. One of my fondest memories was 2019 when ASU stormed back from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter led by Robbi "Buckets" Ryan and Courtney Ekmark to achieve a 60-58 miracle win over Utah by outscoring the Utes 22-3 in the 4th. The Devils trailed the entire game until with 36 seconds left the miracle happened. One of those memorable moments when CTT' defense was matched by an incredible offensive performance. One of the best birthday presents I've ever received.(my have times changed!)

Grand Canyon is playing the 18th, I may well forego the Sun Devils in favor of a really rousing, passionate, fun experience on the west side.

 

[awhom111]

A conversation between the Antelope AD and a power 5 conference would be very interesting. As you know Grand Canyon is a Christian college and a number of the staff within and without of the athletic department are there for the Christian environment.

I may have shared the first time that I attended a Grand Canyon game the national anthem was played 10 minutes before the tip. Before tip off the president of the student body came to Center Court and led a prayer.

Ingrained in the culture there is religion. So the Grand Canyon AD might be well suited for Baylor or another power five School with that kind of institutional framework. I'm not sure how many power five jobs would fall into a category that would be of interest to the AD.

That said the AD is leading a tremendous effort to showcase women's basketball. The experience in West Phoenix is much closer to what the kitties present in McKale rather than the really woeful disappointment that's called staging women's basketball at Desert Financial.Arena.

Tomorrow my birthday I'm reconsidering my tradition of driving down the I 17 to watch the Devil's lose to the Buffs.

In past years celebrating my birthday watching the Devils has always been wonderful. One of my fondest memories was 2019 when ASU stormed back from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter led by Robbi "Buckets" Ryan and Courtney Ekmark to achieve a 60-58 miracle win over Utah by outscoring the Utes 22-3 in the 4th. The Devils trailed the entire game until with 36 seconds left the miracle happened. One of those memorable moments when CTT' defense was matched by an incredible offensive performance. One of the best birthday presents I've ever received.(my have times changed!)

Grand Canyon is playing the 18th, I may well forego the Sun Devils in favor of a really rousing, passionate, fun experience on the west side.

Yeah, I am not sure what her long-term goals are even though she has worked at two schools that are far different from Gran Canyon, but it is definitely more than the culture thing that Grand Canyon has been innovating in that might be of interest to other schools. They have been very aggressive with their coach hiring and it pays off more often than not. She has not gotten around to women's basketball yet, but Pitt's athletic director has also been involved in some successful coach hiring that a bigger revenue school might be interested in emulating in the future.

 

[azfan]

Yeah, I am not sure what her long-term goals are even though she has worked at two schools that are far different from Gran Canyon, but it is definitely more than the culture thing that Grand Canyon has been innovating in that might be of interest to other schools. They have been very aggressive with their coach hiring and it pays off more often than not. She has not gotten around to women's basketball yet, but Pitt's athletic director has also been involved in some successful coach hiring that a bigger revenue school might be interested in emulating in the future.

?

Not sure if you're referring to the Grand Canyon ad and women's basketball coach but in fact the AD made a tremendous hire with Molly Miller.

Molly Miller - Women's Basketball Coach - Grand Canyon University Athletics

Miller's marks SEASON SCHOOL RECORD 2014-15 Drury 26-4 2015-16 Drury 26-5 2016-17 Drury 30-4 2017-18 Drury 31-3 2018-19 Drury 35-1 2019-20 Drury 32-0 2020-21...

gculopes.com

Molly Miller is leading the Grand Canyon women's basketball program for her third season as Lopes head coach after taking over the program on April 7, 2020.

Miller enters the 2022-23 season with an .866 winning percentage, second highest among active Division I head coaches, .19 behind UConn’s Geno Auriemma. The two-time Division II Coach of the Year ended her Drury career with the D-II national runner-up in 2019 and an undefeated, top-ranked 2020 team when the national tournament was canceled because of COVID-19.

 

[awhom111]

?

Not sure if you're referring to the Grand Canyon ad and women's basketball coach but in fact the AD made a tremendous hire with Molly Miller.

Molly Miller - Women's Basketball Coach - Grand Canyon University Athletics

Miller's marks SEASON SCHOOL RECORD 2014-15 Drury 26-4 2015-16 Drury 26-5 2016-17 Drury 30-4 2017-18 Drury 31-3 2018-19 Drury 35-1 2019-20 Drury 32-0 2020-21...

gculopes.com

Molly Miller is leading the Grand Canyon women's basketball program for her third season as Lopes head coach after taking over the program on April 7, 2020.

Miller enters the 2022-23 season with an .866 winning percentage, second highest among active Division I head coaches, .19 behind UConn’s Geno Auriemma. The two-time Division II Coach of the Year ended her Drury career with the D-II national runner-up in 2019 and an undefeated, top-ranked 2020 team when the national tournament was canceled because of COVID-19.

No, I was referring to the Pitt AD making big names hires in other sports that really turned around terrible programs and likely getting a chance to try again with women's basketball soon.

 

[Husky pride]

So, while doing my usual meandering during a boring conference call at work today, I found a curious and confusing set of statistics: I saw that Duke's 2023 attendance is half or 50% of what it was last year! To add further insult to injury, they are averaging 50% of North Carolina's attendance!

I did more digging to see how other top programs are doing and the usual leading suspects are doing fine. One, Iowa, is traditionally an attendance leader but has jumped by 2K in fans this year due to Caitlin. The other two big board leaders are LSU and Indiana. The 3 decreasing programs are Oregon, Baylor and Duke. The "dead cat bounce" school is ND who in 2020 had 7,681 fans only to fall to 5,005 in 2022 and have only slightly rebounded to 5,282 this year. @triaddukefan and @CamrnCrz1974 need to start making calls to friends and family to get them to show up. Here's the snapshot.
View attachment 83864

I’m surprised Stanford’s attendance isn’t higher. Great analysis! Thanks!

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I am curious what @CamrnCrz1974 has to say as he is a known entity on the Duke board and may be able to shed some light.

Coming off the Gail Goestenkors era (7 Elite Eights, with 4 Final Fours, in her last ten years), Joanne P. McCallie's first season saw attendance at 6764 (out of 9413, the capacity of Cameron Indoor Stadium).In the next few years, attendance wavered, with ups and downs, but still generally very good.

But attendance at Duke women’s basketball games steadily declined during McCallie's last nine seasons, going from 5361 in 2011-12 to 3417 in 2019-20, her last year.
Some of this had to do with McCallie's teams being blown out in high profile matchups at home; some of it had to do with the 2016 HR investigation into McCallie's conduct which found that while there was no mistreatment that was physical or criminal in nature, the program's atmosphere with McCallie at the helm was negative.
And McCallie did no favors for herself, attacking Duke student Hank Tucker, then-sports editor of the Chronicle (Duke student paper) for claiming, in 2018, she was misquoted by Tucker, in 2016, regarding statements she made concerning transfers, UConn, etc. - even though it came out the prior interview was recorded and McCallie did, in fact, make those statements.

Kara Lawson's first year was 2019-20 in which no fans were allowed to attend Duke sporting events -- and Duke shut down its season after four games. With the pandemic slowing, Duke had fans starting to come back in 2021-22, with 5451 fans attending Duke's 56-45loss to #1 South Carolina. But after starting 13-4, Duke went 4-9 the rest of the way, including getting blown out, 74-46, to UNC in the final home game of the year.

Duke is much better this year, sitting at 23-4 overall and 13-3 in the ACC. But this year's squad is predicated on defense to maximize limitations of players on offense. And while Duke is winning, the team scores 65.11 ppg overall (60.38 ppg in ACC games) while allowing 50.70 ppg overall (52.19 in ACC games). It is not an exciting brand of basketball to watch. There is not the star power draw of an Alana Beard, Monique Currie, or Chelsea Gray in terms of wanting to see, "What will she do next?"

For Duke to increase its attendance, there does need to be a grassroots effort to rebuild the program. But Lawson is very insular, keeping information about the program very tight within her inner circle and the team.
The growth -- or rebirth/rebuild - of the program had to happen first -- which it appears to have happened this year. But it has to be sustained, coupled with a product that will draw students, alumni, Durham residents, etc.
With students tenting for men's games (lots of Saturday-Monday combinations in ACC games), the other weeknights in tents are usually for studying or participating in other extracurricular activities. Students can earn more points in tenting by attending certain other athletic events -- and Duke needs to make WBB games more of a priority to earn points.

@triaddukefan

 

[DefenseBB]

Coming off the Gail Goestenkors era (7 Elite Eights, with 4 Final Fours, in her last ten years), Joanne P. McCallie's first season saw attendance at 6764 (out of 9413, the capacity of Cameron Indoor Stadium).In the next few years, attendance wavered, with ups and downs, but still generally very good.

But attendance at Duke women’s basketball games steadily declined during McCallie's last nine seasons, going from 5361 in 2011-12 to 3417 in 2019-20, her last year.
Some of this had to do with McCallie's teams being blown out in high profile matchups at home; some of it had to do with the 2016 HR investigation into McCallie's conduct which found that while there was no mistreatment that was physical or criminal in nature, the program's atmosphere with McCallie at the helm was negative.
And McCallie did no favors for herself, attacking Duke student Hank Tucker, then-sports editor of the Chronicle (Duke student paper) for claiming, in 2018, she was misquoted by Tucker, in 2016, regarding statements she made concerning transfers, UConn, etc. - even though it came out the prior interview was recorded and McCallie did, in fact, make those statements.

Kara Lawson's first year was 2019-20 in which no fans were allowed to attend Duke sporting events -- and Duke shut down its season after four games. With the pandemic slowing, Duke had fans starting to come back in 2021-22, with 5451 fans attending Duke's 56-45loss to #1 South Carolina. But after starting 13-4, Duke went 4-9 the rest of the way, including getting blown out, 74-46, to UNC in the final home game of the year.

Duke is much better this year, sitting at 23-4 overall and 13-3 in the ACC. But this year's squad is predicated on defense to maximize limitations of players on offense. And while Duke is winning, the team scores 65.11 ppg overall (60.38 ppg in ACC games) while allowing 50.70 ppg overall (52.19 in ACC games). It is not an exciting brand of basketball to watch. There is not the star power draw of an Alana Beard, Monique Currie, or Chelsea Gray in terms of wanting to see, "What will she do next?"

For Duke to increase its attendance, there does need to be a grassroots effort to rebuild the program. But Lawson is very insular, keeping information about the program very tight within her inner circle and the team.
The growth -- or rebirth/rebuild - of the program had to happen first -- which it appears to have happened this year. But it has to be sustained, coupled with a product that will draw students, alumni, Durham residents, etc.
With students tenting for men's games (lots of Saturday-Monday combinations in ACC games), the other weeknights in tents are usually for studying or participating in other extracurricular activities. Students can earn more points in tenting by attending certain other athletic events -- and Duke needs to make WBB games more of a priority to earn points.

@triaddukefan

As a brief correction Kara's first year was 2020-21 and that was the year fans were not allow. She cancelled the season after 4 games (3-1, 0-1). Her first full season after Covid, 2021-22 saw 3,018 which was down from McCallie's last year of 3,417 of 2019-2020 which you noted. And yes, McCallie did see a "gradual decline" the last 7 years of the program, it was gradual. Kara has "cratered" the program this year now at 1,620 for 12 home games as last year she averaged 3,018 (as shown in the chart.
She does have her 2 biggest rivals coming into Cameron with NC and NC State but traditionally NC State has about 4,650 fans per game at Cameron while NC fluctuates between 5,230-7.827 (the former being the last two seasons of attendance and the latter being the last 9 seasons. Even those will not boost Kara above last year and I estimate 4,700 and 7,000 for a new average of 2,223. That is a crater and not explained by your "star" power logic. Who in the last 8 years did McCallie have as a "star" vs. Celeste Taylor? As for the students, they seemed to have lost interest, points or no points.

Kara is still a young coach but in year 3, someone needs to tap her on the shoulder and explain "grass roots to her" and show her the historical attendance so maybe that will get her "competitive juices" flowing. While you say insular, I think it is the word "arrogant" given how she comes across in the media. She has had a great 2023 season regardless of what happens with NC/NC State and the ACC tournament. That said, for the fans to not show up is not predicated on a "defensive team" otherwise why would fans have attended MSU or SC games all these years. Plus look at Texas now which is also a "defense first" team but yet Vic has gotten fans out there. Same for LSU.

I appreciate your feedback but to me, you seem to be "whistling past the grave yard" saying to yourself "nothing to be afraid of"....

 

[azfan]

As a brief correction Kara's first year was 2020-21 and that was the year fans were not allow. She cancelled the season after 4 games (3-1, 0-1). Her first full season after Covid, 2021-22 saw 3,018 which was down from McCallie's last year of 3,417 of 2019-2020 which you noted. And yes, McCallie did see a "gradual decline" the last 7 years of the program, it was gradual. Kara has "cratered" the program this year now at 1,620 for 12 home games as last year she averaged 3,018 (as shown in the chart.
She does have her 2 biggest rivals coming into Cameron with NC and NC State but traditionally NC State has about 4,650 fans per game at Cameron while NC fluctuates between 5,230-7.827 (the former being the last two seasons of attendance and the latter being the last 9 seasons. Even those will not boost Kara above last year and I estimate 4,700 and 7,000 for a new average of 2,223. That is a crater and not explained by your "star" power logic. Who in the last 8 years did McCallie have as a "star" vs. Celeste Taylor? As for the students, they seemed to have lost interest, points or no points.

Kara is still a young coach but in year 3, someone needs to tap her on the shoulder and explain "grass roots to her" and show her the historical attendance so maybe that will get her "competitive juices" flowing. While you say insular, I think it is the word "arrogant" given how she comes across in the media. She has had a great 2023 season regardless of what happens with NC/NC State and the ACC tournament. That said, for the fans to not show up is not predicated on a "defensive team" otherwise why would fans have attended MSU or SC games all these years. Plus look at Texas now which is also a "defense first" team but yet Vic has gotten fans out there. Same for LSU.

I appreciate your feedback but to me, you seem to be "whistling past the grave yard" saying to yourself "nothing to be afraid of"....

I think Duke is not alone in their attendance conundrum. I've been thinking about this as we've discussed factors that systematically have women's basketball attendance consistently and significantly below the men's game at all levels.

Maryland, for example like Duke has successful teams on both the men's and women's side. Like Duke Maryland's men's team significantly outdraws the women.

"Of course, this represents a systemic problem among women’s sports. South Carolina leads the nation with an announced average of 12,473 fans per game, making it one of only four women’s basketball programs averaging at least 10,000 fans per game this season, according to the NCAA’s records. For comparison, 36 men’s programs currently sit above that threshold."

Analyzing Maryland women’s basketball’s attendance

The Terps’ attendance has been a hot topic of late.

www.testudotimes.com

But again this is not new news we all know that the men's game significantly outdraws the women's game. Other examples of schools with successful programs but lagging attendance include Notre Dame.

So there are a number of questions here. The focus on Duke seems to invite a broader question that has a number of components including:

1. Is there a ceiling on fans or spectators for women's sports in general and basketball in particular.

2. Assuming a growth rate in basketball viewership and attendance is the women's rate of growth in viewership significantly less than the men's and if so why. I suspect the answers are yes and preferences but it would be intriguing were there to be further information available.

3. To what extent are celebrity coaches more important in the women's game than in the men's game for attendance. This I think is really interesting as Kara is clearly a big name a celebrity well-known outside the golden triangle.

4. Is it realistic to expect the experience in Storrs, Iowa City, or Columbia to be generalized to the woman's sport as a whole. I think we're going to have a natural experiment regarding the Huskies over the next 20 years. The post Geno era will certainly provide some information on the attendance front.

5. Regarding Duke attendance. I would be fascinated to have aggregate attendance info for the state over the last 20 years. While Duke attendance has edged down that may well be offset by attendance changes at NC or NC State or other schools in the area. That aggregate attendance data for the state would be telling. With all the competition for sports dollars it may actually be that for whatever reason Duke is losing a share of the dollars available for eyeballs in the state. The question then becomes why. There are alternative explanations beyond that of the celebrity coach. We all know that Duke has struggled over the past with significant issues I'm thinking now of the men's lacrosse fiasco. Perhaps there's some spillover from these types of fiascos?


Interesting comparison men v women

NCAA Men's vs Women's Basketball: Revenue, Viewership, Attendance

It's NCAA Men's vs Women's Basketball! Find out which makes more money, has more fans, sells more game tickets, and more!

www.wsn.com

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I appreciate your feedback but to me, you seem to be "whistling past the grave yard" saying to yourself "nothing to be afraid of"....

Not at all. I was just pointing out there is not a singular reason of explanation for the decline in attendance.