Drummond's draft status/projection

[Dogdeacon]

I think its 51-49 that he stays. He's said he's staying, but odds are what 75% (?) that the post-season ban holds and what that truly means is playing the entire season under a cloud/rock. You may not get TV exposure/notice etc.. On the other hand for Andre to say I'm not coming back because I'll miss another opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament where he basically no-showed seems a little counter-intuitive. Clearly he needs the development, practice time and added maturity. I think the fact that he was similarly 51-49 college v. high school this past season is illustrative of how big of a jump the NBA would be for him.

The biggest cognitive dissonance I have about his pro-status right now was on display last night. Future pro's simply impact a game more. What a dramatic contrast between him and the ultra-confident game controlling Royce White. On Drummond's few chances he'd try for the spectacular play (slamming putbacks) rather than the smarter confident play to rebound the basketball and put it back. But the reason he does that is his ability to make anything that is not a dunk is still suspect (illustrated by one miss in particular) AND he is scared to get fouled. White impacted almost all of his team's offensive possessions and with 12 defensive rebounds was pretty important on that end as well. In contrast Drummond disappears.
Where would people rank Drummond in terms of players on the floor last night?
Royce White looked eons better (basketball skills and maturity - both obviously 3 levels over Drummond) and was consistently able to school anyone that guarded him one-on-one. And when White had a mismatch (Giffey) it was an automatic 2.
Lamb, Napier and Boatright (who was hit or miss) all were more into the flow of the game then Drummond. Drummond (4 blocks, one nice one on White although it was athletic recovery after he was beaten) might have had a bigger impact defensively than any of those three. But its tough to argue that this impact was profound given the 3 rebounds and the fact that he had to be kept away from White to avoid foul trouble yet still fouled out in 26 minutes. Heck I think the other IState bigs Ejim & Booker had bigger impacts with some key putbacks and statement dunks. To me Andre Drummond never looked like one of the 5 best players on the floor. How is that a lottery pick!?

I'll admit Drummond is still probably pick # 5-8-ish on athleticism and potential alone. But he's got a real chance of sliding come draft day and a much more frightening chance of being a dud in the NBA if he goes pro before maturing as a person and before developing any semblance of an offensive game. I think Calhoun could actually make a good case to Andre that he's better off playing an under-the-radar year at UConn and working on his game away from the constant draft evaluation limelight.

 

[hungry husky]

Drummond has a tough decision to make. I think even after this tough season his stock has peaked and that could justify him going...he has more to lose by coming back if he has an equally disappointing season. If he leaves now he has the potential to turn into Kwame Brown and if he never develops his game he won't secure that lucrative second contract.

As a UConn fan, I want him to stay and I think he'd benefit a lot by staying another year by maturing and gaining more experience. Though he may sacrifice being a lottery pick this year, he'd still be a 1st round pick no matter what because of his potential. In the short term, this may cost him a little money and prestige of being a lottery pick but if he ends up becoming a good NBA player with a long career then it's going to make him a LOT more money in the long term. I hope KO can break this down to him.

Royce White was by far the best player on the court and I was totally blown away by his quickness for such a big guy. I think most impressive was that he only had 1 turnover considering he played 38 minutes. He was Drummond's daddy. I actually hope they take down Kentucky.

 

[ruskin]

AD got exposed last night. Counter-intuitively I think he's gone. He's better off following the Andrew Bynum model and put in some apprentice years and get paid very well for it and (hopefully) get to the second contract. Another year like this at UConn and he plays himself out of lottery money.

 

[caw]

Roscoe was able to defend White, aside from that I agree with your post.

 

[upstater]

Drummond had a deer in the headlights look last night. Saw him standing around quite a bit as even Boatright was fighting for rebounds.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Roscoe was able to defend White, aside from that I agree with your post.

Yeah you are right, Roscoe did a good job keeping Royce in front of him on most possessions.

My opinion is the line of thinking (ruskin's which admittedly will be factored in) "exposed last night = risk of further exposure" is inherently flawed and those advising Andre and/or UConn shouldn't use that suspect logic or it will be easily refuted. If you are worried about getting schooled in NCAA games what do you think will happen in the pro's where virtually every big guy is as skilled as Royce and as athletic as you (Drummond)? However, getting schooled occasionally in the NCAA and learing how to school less skilled players will both ultimately help AD's development as a player. Ie. If I'm Andre I'd have sought out Royce White after that game and asked him how he grew into the player he is.

Pointing to one example of success like Andrew Bynum (and what is this his 5th year and he's finally blossoming!?) and ignoring the more statistically abundant failures is also quite typical of NBA draft decisions. I simply think its indisputable that anyone seriously evaluating Andre Drummond's basketball performance* in 2011-12 would determine that he is NOT ready to move to the next level.

* just that & not where he's projected to be drafted etc...

 

[Tenspro2002]

AD got exposed last night. Counter-intuitively I think he's gone. He's better off following the Andrew Bynum model and put in some apprentice years and get paid very well for it and (hopefully) get to the second contract. Another year like this at UConn and he plays himself out of lottery money.

Ding ding ding. His stock has already dropped and he would have been better off staying in high school, money-wise. He's not going to want to risk it dropping further by playing another year in college and looking ordinary.

 

[Palatine]

If you're in the lottery, you have to go.

There is no guarantee he would be in the lottery next year. If he is projected this year, then he shouldn't gamble with his future.

 

[Yonick]

If UConn can play in the 2013 tourney Drummond stays. If not, he goes.
With 13 of the 68 tourney teams not allowed in next years tourney (20%) I think it's safe to assume that a similiar % of non NCAA tourney teams will be ineligible too. That means around 60 teams. This includes Syracuse, FSU, Indiana, etc. I do believe the NCAA will have to change it's criterion in order to allow these teams to get up to snuff.
Announcing 2013, in the fall of 2011 is unfair to these teams. I believe the NCAA will have to revise this to start in 2015.

 

[tykurez]

If UConn can play in the 2013 tourney Drummond stays. If not, he goes.
With 13 of the 68 tourney teams not allowed in next years tourney (20%) I think it's safe to assume that a similiar % of non NCAA tourney teams will be ineligible too. That means around 60 teams. This includes Syracuse, FSU, Indiana, etc. I do believe the NCAA will have to change it's criterion in order to allow these teams to get up to snuff.
Announcing 2013, in the fall of 2011 is unfair to these teams. I believe the NCAA will have to revise this to start in 2015.

Those teams would have been ineligible THIS year if the rules were in place. Next year they are all likely eligible (except us and some other boondocks no-name.)

 

[caw]

Here's the thing, Calhoun tells players when it is best for them to go, based on how high they will go and their ability to get that second/third contract.

Drummond needs a lot work on being a big. He actually defend Royce decently in the final 7 minutes of the game. His only real big mistake was on the first play of the game where he picked Royce up way too high out.

 

[SubbaBub]

Top 5 he should go, otherwise he should stay. He is going to get better. I have no doubts about that, but he is behind Bynum at this stage in his development. I think he'd have a rough start in the league.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk

 

[HuskyBballFan]

If UConn can play in the 2013 tourney Drummond stays. If not, he goes.

Not that simple. The decision deadline for early entrants has been moved up to sometime in April. There's a very good chance that we still won't know our tournament status by then.

 

[Cheddie]

To me Andre Drummond never looked like one of the 5 best players on the floor. How is that a lottery pick!?

Forget last night. The kid has one in a million athletic ability. He's still learning the game - obviously - but you don't teach what he has. With a few exceptions, maybe Davis, a few others, any NBA team that selects someone else is going to regret it. That said, his game is really, really raw for any short-term NBA impact, and teams aren't set up to teach rookies. (Bynum lucked out having Kareem tutor him. AB averaged all of 1.6 points per game his rookie season.) I'm sure JC will be frank and honest with Andre about the opportunities and the pitfalls of his decision. I think it's in his best interests to keep working on his game in Storrs. But with the money available, I certainly won't criticize him and his family if they decide to go pro. He seems like a great kid and I'm thrilled he's in the Husky family.

 

[Vuce]

AD is going to be in the lottery whether he comes out this year or next.

 

[tykurez]

Forget last night. The kid has one in a million athletic ability. He's still learning the game - obviously - but you don't teach what he has. With a few exceptions, maybe Davis, a few others, any NBA team that selects someone else is going to regret it. That said, his game is really, really raw for any short-term NBA impact, and teams aren't set up to teach rookies. (Bynum lucked out having Kareem tutor him. AB averaged all of 1.6 points per game his rookie season.) I'm sure JC will be frank and honest with Andre about the opportunities and the pitfalls of his decision. I think it's in his best interests to keep working on his game in Storrs. But with the money available, I certainly won't criticize him and his family if they decide to go pro. He seems like a great kid and I'm thrilled he's in the Husky family.

It's tough to discern, really. Go back and look at Dwight Howard's draft projection ... it's eerily similar to what one would think Andre's is. Freak amounts of athleticism that very few are gifted with and tons of potential to exploit it, but a questionable drive a passion at a young age.

At the end of the day, the lottery is the lottery ... and Andre is probably a top 5 pick.

 

[EricLA]

AD got exposed last night. Counter-intuitively I think he's gone. He's better off following the Andrew Bynum model and put in some apprentice years and get paid very well for it and (hopefully) get to the second contract. Another year like this at UConn and he plays himself out of lottery money.

these are my thoughts exactly. some folks keep talking about coming back another year to develop. the guy's a beast and would love for him to come back for UCONN's sake, but how is it that he can only develop while in college, but not in the NBA?

i was looking at Bynum's stats - he left for the NBA out of high school forgoing his commitment to UCONN. he averaged 1.6 PPG his first year, 8 his 2nd, and now in his 7th season he's averaging 18 PPG and 13 RPG. i'd say he's developed. if Drummond is projected to go in the top 10, how is coming back for another year going to help him $-wise?

someone said NBA teams aren't set up to "teach kids". how is that so? they have millions of $ at their disposal. how is it that their entire staff isn't qualified to teach Drummond but UCONN's staff is? i'll admit i don't know how the NBA works, but it seems counter intuitive that they would draft a kid who is raw, but has potential (teams do it every year), but then not bother to set aside resources to teach him?

 

[Revrat]

I don't buy the "if you are in the lottery you have to go" stuff. If the result is that you are not going to play in the NBA then you are not going to better and get to that next contract. Drummond needs to mature and it won't happen sitting on a bench and being labled a bust. If he had any semblance of an offensive game I would say go but he has zip as far as an offense.

 

[Cheddie]

if Drummond is projected to go in the top 10, how is coming back for another year going to help him $-wise?

someone said NBA teams aren't set up to "teach kids". how is that so? they have millions of $ at their disposal. how is it that their entire staff isn't qualified to teach Drummond but UCONN's staff is?

1. Staying another year may not help him get more $, but he'll be more mature, one hopes better skilled, and perhaps more ready to play.
2. It's not that NBA staffs aren't qualified, it's that they simply don't have the free time during the season to spend tutoring rookies, given the pressures of a NBA schedule and its constant travel demands. Even in this shortened season, NBA teams will play 66 games. If young kids "hit a wall" in college, imagine what that schedule does to them.

 

[imno1]

If UConn can play in the 2013 tourney Drummond stays. If not, he goes.
With 13 of the 68 tourney teams not allowed in next years tourney (20%) I think it's safe to assume that a similiar % of non NCAA tourney teams will be ineligible too. That means around 60 teams. This includes Syracuse, FSU, Indiana, etc. I do believe the NCAA will have to change it's criterion in order to allow these teams to get up to snuff.
Announcing 2013, in the fall of 2011 is unfair to these teams. I believe the NCAA will have to revise this to start in 2015.

I might be wrong but that 13 number was if the rule was in force for this year's tourney.

 

[Cheddie]

It's tough to discern, really. Go back and look at Dwight Howard's draft projection ... it's eerily similar to what one would think Andre's is. Freak amounts of athleticism that very few are gifted with and tons of potential to exploit it, but a questionable drive a passion at a young age.

At the end of the day, the lottery is the lottery ... and Andre is probably a top 5 pick.

I remember all the outrage here when Howard was chosen over Emeka.

 

[suzyq]

I can't begin to figure out what is going on in the mind of an 18 year old with the abilities he has. But...with the excellence that this program has known and its presence in the NBA ( past and present) doesn it strike anyone else that these kids seem to be operating in a vaccum? If my kid was 6'10" tall and had Andre's gifts he'd be at every camp, he'd be trolling the resources of the University, he'd be picking the brains of every player who showed up at the facility. Deac your comment about him talking to White about how he had advanced his game struck me. I thought " I'm sure that never occurred to him". Same thing for Jeremy. I don't expect our former players to spend all their free time mentoring the current ones, but shouldn't Lamb be working out a couple times a month with Rip? Is there some reason why this sort of thing can't happen?

 

[tykurez]

I remember all the outrage here when Howard was chosen over Emeka.

In hindsight, it's ridiculous. But at the time, it wasn't totally unwarranted. Everyone knew his potential ceiling was higher than Mek's, but his questionable drive and unproven abilities lingered. The exact same thing could be said about Drummond ... which is why I still think many scouts will salivate over him.

 

[sparky]

I really don't care one way or the other. He is not ready nor is JL, but what matters most is $$$$$$$$$$$$. The NBA is watered down because of guys like JL and AD, so whatever they do is fine with me. I an a Uconn fan and can't wait till the recruiting is over and we are ready to go in Nov.

 

[Reno]

It's not that NBA staffs aren't qualified, it's that they simply don't have the free time during the season to spend tutoring rookies

This is an outright lie. If anything, they have more time than anyone. There aren't things like classes getting in their way.