Drummond at the next level?

[Waquoit]

Marcus Camby never became much of an offensive threat. What's he on, his 4th contract? The nay sayers here are basing their opinions on his offensive game in the post. More specifically, his shooting. They aren't giving any credit to his passing or the way he can run the floor on the break. Or his shot blocking and rebounding. He'll get a 2nd contract as soon as he wants it.

 

[Dogdeacon]

As a fan, its easy to say that Drummond should stay for many obvious reasons. But if I am Andre Drummond, I would never pass on an opportunity to set myself up for life. Right now, Drummond most likely gets picked 2nd on potential alone. He is 6"11 and a freak athelete. The NBA gives kids like that a very long leash. Worst case scenario, if Drummond never develops at the next level, he will still have a 5-6 year career and earn upwards of $30+ million. Until midseason this year, Kwame Brown was still in the NBA. Bottomline, if you go through the history of the NBA draft and do a case study on how many projected top 3 picks went back to college for an additional year, it would quickly become a cautionary tale of money lossed vs skills developed. All you ahve to do is look back to last year and see how far Sullinger will drop and most likely Harrison Barnes as well.

IF Andre Drummond is going to get better, which is the entire reason to draft him, then it stands to reason that he will be a higher pick next year vs. this year. Draft will be weaker, he will be better.

 

[Palatine]

If he's going in the top five. He can't really improve his position.

 

[Prezidint]

Marcus Camby never became much of an offensive threat. What's he on, his 4th contract?

Let's compare stats:
Freshman year:

Camby:
60% Free Throw, 10 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.6 Bl.PG, 1.2 AsPG.

AD:
29.5% Free Throw, 10 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.7 BlPG, 0.4 AsPG.

Camby 22 minutes per game, Drummond almost 29.

Gotta add a third to Camby's totals to directly compare:
Camby:
13 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.8 Bl PG, 1.5 AsPG
AD:
10 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.7 Bl PG, 0.4 AsPG

Figure give AD a nod for playing in the BE rather than whatever UMass was in, and the two compare fairly well.

How again, tell me, does a guy go 18 years and never have a coach/father/uncle/hecklers say, "dude, shoot 'n ball from over your eyes, not under."

 

[djct1999]

IF Andre Drummond is going to get better, which is the entire reason to draft him, then it stands to reason that he will be a higher pick next year vs. this year. Draft will be weaker, he will be better.

Hmmm, He is projected to go 2nd overall....doesnt have too much room to move up, a ton of room to move down!

 

[Druken Friar]

It's pretty obvious he's a lottery pick, maybe even number 1. However, another year of college won't change his draft spot.
Quote from http://nbadraft.net/andre-drummond-returning-sophomore-year
"We feel that this would be a tremendous decision for his future as a second season at UConn will do wonders in developing Drummond's skill set, confidence and long term potential for the NBA level. Allowing him to hit the ground running and not have to battle through a couple seasons of catching up to the NBA game and regaining confidence.

He's learning under the premiere talent developer in Jim Calhoun who turned players such as Marcus Williams and Hilton Armstrong into first rounders and Hasheem Thabeet into the 2nd overall pick.

Watching Drummond play this year has been an emotional roller coaster. At times he flashes the immense potential he possesses as a new age center who can run the floor like a deer and overpower opponents with jaw dropping athleticism and strength around the rim. But often times it can be frustrating as the young bigman has no idea how to position himself for rebounds. He also shies away from contact and doesn't utilize his great strength inside."

 

[Dogdeacon]

It's pretty obvious he's a lottery pick, maybe even number 1. ."

ESPN has him 6th, and I don't think this has been updated since NCAAs as his stock is shown rising whereas after UConn's postseason its most likely neutral or descending. 5th - 8th is likely projection today from outsider perspective, but Calhoun will do much better due diligence, talk to NBA GMs and coaches and get a handle on it before sitting down with AD.
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft

 

[Gurleyman]

There are a lot of people who have done better at the pro level than in college. Rudy Gay, for one (Joe Johnson also averaged around 12-14 ppg at Arkansas and then 25 in the NBA). Among big men, LaMarcus Aldridge was 9.9 and 5.9 as a freshman (15 and 9 as a sophomore - a legitimate projection for Andre next year if he came back) and is now an All-Star. Byron Mullins averaged 8.8 at Ohio State in his one season and looked like nothing special, and has now developed big-time shooting range for a 7-footer and will probably have a long NBA career. Had Bynum played in college he would have had similar season to Andre's this year - probably even worse due to the veteran talent on the team he would have played for. Other guys just play much different - guys like Jamal Mashburn and Antwan Jamison lived in the post in college and became perimeter guys in the NBA - they don't even look like the same players. Most big guys who dominated at lower DI schools (Adonal Foyle, Patrick O'Bryant, Michael Olowakandi, Jason Thompson, etc.) have not panned out at the next level as anything more than back-ups - with the occasional David Robinson-type exceptions.

The point about NBA teams not practicing much is true (and is even more exaggerated this year with the weird schedule due to the lockout), but what Andre needs as much as 5-on-5 practice time at this stage of his career is repetitive drills - box out drills, jump hook drills, post move drills, catch and shoot drills (with a release point above his forehead), over and over and over again until all those things become second nature and can be applied into game settings (not to mention FT shooting work). The NBA teams will have support personnel around him - coaching and practice sparring partners - to put in that work, even if it doesn't come in a 5-on-5 setting. However, a year of college coaching as an incremental step before the leap to the NBA wouldn't be all that bad either, given how far he has to go with so many things. If Oriakhi comes back, he's a good sparring partner, and even a guy like Bradley might be able to provide a good, strong body to go against. But if he does come back, he needs to show some improvement (similar to Aldridge) to prove that his ceiling is higher.

 

[Waquoit]

ESPN has him 6th, and I don't think this has been updated since NCAAs as his stock is shown rising whereas after UConn's postseason its most likely neutral or descending.

Did you see that block against ISU where he met Royce coming in for the jam full steam? He stopped that big load dead in his tracks, the ball didn't budge once he met it. How many others in the draft can do that? He ain't descending.

 

[Palatine]

It's pretty obvious he's a lottery pick, maybe even number 1. However, another year of college won't change his draft spot.

That's easy to say when you are gambling with someone elses' career.

 

[Prezidint]

That's easy to say when you are gambling with someone elses' career.

It's easy to say it, PERIOD.
Wake up.
You're an odd mix of solid, well-informed posts, and crap that should be stuck under the tables at Waffle House.
Barring injury, which is a "DUH," the kid is not going lower next year relative to this year, which is a top heavy draft.

 

[caw]

It's easy to say it, PERIOD.
Wake up.
You're an odd mix of solid, well-informed posts, and crap that should be stuck under the tables at Waffle House.
Barring injury, which is a "DUH," the kid is not going lower next year relative to this year, which is a top heavy draft.

I would change that to "barring serious, career ending injury." Look at Kyrie Irving.

 

[TheChamps990411]

AD just turned 18 years old and has never been taught to play the game for someone his size correctly. when your his size with his athletic ability you should live in the post and dominate anyone you play against in HS and college because no one is going to be able to matchup physically.

 

[Palatine]

I would change that to "barring serious, career ending injury." Look at Kyrie Irving.

Irving went after his freshman year. Regardless, AD is an unusual talent and a top five draft pick. He should think very carefully about jeopardizing that even if the chances are remote.

 

[dogpause]

The dilemna for Andre is that if he stays at UConn, but doesn't show much improvement, he'll be penalized. However, the thing that bothered me about Andre was not how he performed, but that he didn't seem to learn very much. There were times when I had to ask, is anyone coaching this kid? Or are they coaching, but he's not getting it? That's the scary part.

I can live with the poor FT shooting through an entire season. We've all seen many times where a player's FT shooting improves over the summer. But the failure to be in the right place on defense, to not be able to box out, to not set effective screens throughout the season is very worrisome.

It's rare that a JC-coached big man doesn't show improvement from one year to the next, but from what we've witnessed this year, it's not a lock that Andre blossoms next year if he stays at UConn. It's not a lock that he ever blossoms, but I certainly hope he does. He's a nice kid and a gifted athlete, but why does it so oftenlook like he's never been coached?

 

[Waquoit]

The dilemna for Andre is that if he stays at UConn, but doesn't show much improvement, he'll be penalized.

That is a good point. Lamb and KEA are 2 names that hurt their draft position by staying another year.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Did you see that block against ISU where he met Royce coming in for the jam full steam? He stopped that big load dead in his tracks, the ball didn't budge once he met it. How many others in the draft can do that? He ain't descending.

This is getting old and I'm beating a dead horse. Drummond was argued as #1 or 2 coming into this year and now he's #5+. That is descending versus the competition. He has 1-3 plays per game that make you say wow, but then disappears, bricks free throws (29.5%!) and shoots jump shots from his chin. Like any prospect he has a range of NBA comps projection but his is particularly wide. Best case poor man's Dwight Howard, worst case DeAndre Jordan probable I'd agree with whoever suggested Camby as a pretty good comp.

There is no way you can definitively say Lamb hurt his stock when he was never on the board last year and is still pretty high (teens?) this year although I'd say he too is descending KEA is tough too, I think if he came out after his frosh year he might have gone highest, but then no NC. IN 1999 though his leadership skills and clutch play were well known his size and weight were NBA issues. To me he hurt his stock by staying in school AND never getting into top phsycial shape. For a similar example see Williams, Marcus (remember his 15%+ body fat measure at NBA combine).

 

[champs99and04]

I've always wondered why people think players would develop more/better if they stayed in college. In college, he has a limited amount of time in the gym, limited access to coaches, limited practice time with a team and most important, he's practicing against college players. If he goes pro, he's got about 100 times as many practices in a year. He's got unlimited access to coaches and training time. He doesn't have an obligation to be taking care of classes. And he gets to go against pro players. Why do you think kids like Oak played so much better after a few weeks of big man camp against the best and taught by the best? As a pro, that's not a two week camp - it's a 365 day camp.

If he has the potential, it will be brought out faster if he goes pro. He needs another year of college is ridiculous. Do I want to see him stay for another year? Hell yes, but that's only because I'm selfish fan. I am not for a second thinking what is best for the kid.

I sort of disagree with you. Of course he could get better in the NBA, but I think Drummond's a kid who needs to stay in college for a year or two to mature a little bit. While I wouldn't blame him one bit for leaving and cashing that check, I think it's better for him long term if he sticks around for a little bit longer. It's possible that Drummond goes high in the lottery, stores that money away, and maybe starts off slow but improves into one of the best centers in the league before his rookie contract runs out. However, I'm concerned that it's more likely that Drummond is devoured by big men who are just as athletic and immensely more skilled. I'm just not sure Drummond has the hunger to work himself out of an early career struggle. If anybody can get everything out of him it's Calhoun. The money isn't going anywhere. I feel like he's Deandre Jordan at worst.

 

[champs99and04]

That is a good point. Lamb and KEA are 2 names that hurt their draft position by staying another year.

Lamb hurt his draft position by staying? This is news to me, because I'm pretty sure he would have gone in the mid-first round last year at best, based on what I've heard. Most websites are predicting that he's a lottery pick this season. Besides, KEA and Lamb are completely different cases than Drummond. Drummond has the kind of athleticism that you don't see very often. Barring a career ending injury, the kid is not going to have any trouble making money during his lifetime. Somebody is always going to think that they can get it out of him.

 

[Waquoit]

This is getting old and I'm beating a dead horse. Drummond was argued as #1 or 2 coming into this year and now he's #5+. That is descending versus the competition.

You said he was descending more lately based on UConn's NCAA performance. Now you go back to "coming into this year". I'll try better to keep up.

 

[Deadrody]

Based on his current talent level, Drummond would never get the all-important 2nd NBA contract. Sure he would be a lottery pick based on potential, but we all saw what his skill level is. He has tremendous potential, but until he has numbers at the collegiate level close to a double double average, he simply isn't ready. I would expect that that would be the advice he gets from Coach and all of the Uconn alums in The League. Yes, there is the APR issue, but Drummond is still going to get the chance to grow his game and set himself up for life with that 2nd NBA deal. I predict the people in the know will tell him to come back. Hopefully, he listens.

Nonsense. I don't think he's ready now, but I find it extremely hard to believe that he wouldn't be good enough to make serious money after 3 years in the NBA.

 

[caw]

Irving went after his freshman year. Regardless, AD is an unusual talent and a top five draft pick. He should think very carefully about jeopardizing that even if the chances are remote.

The point was that Irving got injured, rather seriously, played 15 games as a freshman, and still was the #1 pick in the NBA draft. Ohhh and he refused a bunch of workouts leading up to the draft. So his serious (though not career ending) injury didn't impair his draft status.

Honestly, I can't believe there is even an argument about Drummond being drafted high and getting a second contract. The kid is 18, just put up 10-8-3 as a freshman in the BE (much harder than the SEC) and he did that based on pure athletic ability. He had arguably as good an individual freshman season, statistically speaking, as any big since Donyell at UConn and better than anyone but maybe Okafor (8-9-4). And Drummond did it with nothing but his athletic ability and shooting 30% from line.

 

[aboogieee]

Just look at Dwight Howard. Similar situations in which both were dominate around the basket against HS "kids" and not much has changed w/ Howard's game. Still struggling w/ his shot and in the post but highly sought after because of his athleticism and defense. Drummond will strive off the same thing in his early years. He was just exposed in college but should earn a second contract.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Did you see that block against ISU where he met Royce coming in for the jam full steam? He stopped that big load dead in his tracks, the ball didn't budge once he met it. How many others in the draft can do that? He ain't descending.

BUMP
Waquoit - perhaps you mixed up the definition of descending?
Drumguy is another who guaranteed AD in top 5

I think good that Andre fell to a team with some promise and history as opposed to going to Sacto or GState or Toronto which would have been possible death sentences. Playing in a place where fans care will be good for him and with Monroe already competent in the middle there will be time for him to develop.

 

[Tenspro2002]

You can add Drummond to the list of guys whose draft stock was hurt by letting scouts see their warts. He was a top-2 pick going into this season and left as barely top-10.

 

[Dogdeacon]

You can add Drummond to the list of guys whose draft stock was hurt by letting scouts see their warts. He was a top-2 pick going into this season and left as barely top-10.

NO no no no no. Drummond got schooled by Thomas Robinson in a one-on-one game, did well at measurement & workout stuff, but not basketball stuff. This would have come to light because basketball scouts are good and are paid to do their homework and be right. Supposing AD would have been top 2 just because Chadd Ford writes meaningless things like that about 10 guys every year is spurious. No better indication of where someone would have been drafted THAN WHERE THEY ARE DRAFTED!

 

[upstater]

That is a good point. Lamb and KEA are 2 names that hurt their draft position by staying another year.

Lamb, at best, was ticketed for the lower teens in last year's draft.