Doggydaddy's UConn vs Duke game preview

[Wonkster]

Nothing to disagree with in terms of DD's analysis. This game still makes me nervous for a few reasons:

-Duke has to win against UConn at some point, don't they? The law of averages is pretty nuts.

Au contraire, mon frère.

You may be be surprised to learn that there is no "Law of Averages" in mathematics. There is, however, the Law of Large Numbers which only addresses repeated identical experiments as the number of repetitions heads toward infinity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

No two games between Duke and UConn even come near being repeated under identical conditions, and thus this concept is inapplicable.

Additionally, the pitifully few games between the two teams so far does not even remotely come near satifying the "large number" requirement. It appears you're trying to invoke "The Law of Small Numbers" which also doesn't exist in mathematics.

More here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

 

[arty155]

Wow, another outstanding preview, DD. Really enjoy your format and compelling narrative – very clear, very interesting, very motivating - even to a casual fan still learning the game (typo: Polly’s stats may have dropped off the version currently posted). Your straightforward suggestions, regarding what to look for during the game, really add a lot to the Boneyard. Thanks, Arty

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Great job, as usual DD!!!!!
If you go back and watch the first couple games of this season and then view the most recent UCONN games it's amazing how quickly and efficiently the UCONN girls have adapted to the new "touch" rules on defense! Some of the other so-called POWERHOUSE teams are still fouling like crazy as they keep touching/hitting on defense! Our coaching staff is the best in the country, not even close! KML & Tuck will be playing limited minutes for a while till they get their sea-legs back! But just having them available is going to change the games big-time! I think Geno will be cautious right out of the gate.

 

[magic]

Gray is not the player she was last year physically. I'm looking forward to watching Hartley defend her.

Some great matchups. Stewart and Peters, Dolson and Williams, Jefferson and Jones. If playing, KML and Liston.

I believe Hartley will be a very difficult matchup for Gray, especially right now. Bria is back at the top of her game, and Gray just does not have the mobility or speed at this point in time. Husky backcourt is much improved over last year. Quicker and more athletic than Duke's. In fact I cannot find one matchup in this game that favors Duke. My only question is, what impact the officials will have in another high profile made for tv game ?

 

[doggydaddy]

I believe Hartley will be a very difficult matchup for Gray, especially right now. Bria is back at the top of her game, and Gray just does not have the mobility or speed at this point in time. Husky backcourt is much improved over last year. Quicker and more athletic than Duke's. In fact I cannot find one matchup in this game that favors Duke. My only question is, what impact the officials will have in another high profile made for tv game ?

If KML doesn't start, I'm looking forward to seeing how Banks (probably starter) does in guarding the much taller Liston. And conversely, looking forward to seeing how Liston covers the much quicker Banks.

 

[magic]

If KML doesn't start, I'm looking forward to seeing how Banks (probably starter) does in guarding the much taller Liston. And conversely, looking forward to seeing how Liston covers the much quicker Banks.

While Liston is 3-4 inches taller, she does not really create her own shot, and is not a great ball handler. She finds a lot of open shots at 3pt. line in transition . I love Banks' speed and athleticism in this matchup.

 

[meyers7]

-Duke has to win against UConn at some point, don't they? The law of averages is pretty nuts

Laws were made to be broken.

 

[Striper69]

Upset City, Baby! (Dick Vitale voice)




Can't wait to watch the game tomorrow night!

 

[Wonkster]

Upset City, Baby! ( Vitale voice)

God spare women's basketball. Vitale is one of the main reasons I stopped watching men's college basketball. What a buffoon.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

Nice article and preview, however I certainly don't think UConn wins this game by 20+, especially being that the game is @ Duke, where they are notoriously hard to beat there. Something like just 4 home losses since 2008-2009; a remarkable stat to be sure..I think this game comes down to turnovers and coaching...two stats where UConn has the advantage. I certainly don't want to see a blowout, especially considering it's a 1 vs 2 matchup. This should be a great game, possibly even going into overtime..

 

[doggydaddy]

the game is @ Duke, where they are notoriously hard to beat there.

2009-10 - Uconn 81 Duke 48
2011-12 - Uconn 61 Duke 45

I totally understand the possibility of an upset with a team as talented as Duke. But there is some history to go by.

What are you basing your prediction on?

 

[Boxerpups4me]

2009-10 - Uconn 81 Duke 48
2011-12 - Uconn 61 Duke 45

I totally understand the possibility of an upset with a team as talented as Duke. But there is some history to go by.

What are you basing your prediction on?

I don't believe I made a game prediction. I purposely stayed away from going there, but I did say that UConn has statistical advantages in key areas. Your right, UConn is really the only team to have much success playing at Duke. However, Duke is healthy, and Williams was just a freshman in that matchup and was still obviously adjusting to the game, and add two top five recruiting classes for Duke since then, and your right, they are a very talented team. It's really hard to say if KML and Tuck will contribute much in their first game back..It might take a few games for them to be totally 100%. The closest I will come to a prediction is that I still like UConn in this game, but a much closer win than the other ranked teams they have played. UConn leads in most statistical categories that you referenced in your article, and the key ones like defense and turnovers could be critical for a UConn win if Stewart is having a bad game. With all that said, for Duke to even have a chance in this game they will need to control the boards, one stat which they fare better than UConn at, limit the turnovers to under 15 and just hope that Stewart has a bad game. Couple all that with the game being @ Duke, and things could go their way. Like I said, a very well written article that was very articulate and thoughtful. You obviously put a lot of research into it and I enjoyed reading over it..

 

[willtalk]

While a Duke win is possible it is at this point in time improbable. I actually think Duke would have a better chance of beating Ucon in the NCAA's given the extra time for players coming off injuries, Gray, Henson, to get in better game condition and the frosh posts to get more experience, even though it would also mean the addition of a healthy KML and Tuck returning for Ucon. Duke needs Gray's defense which is what is affected and thus limited the most by her not being 100%. Gray when she is healthy is an excellent half court on ball defender. It is Dukes defense rather than their offense that is their weakness and biggest concern this season.

 

[huskybill]

As Geno, by his own admission, never mentions the other team, how will our players know who to guard?

DD, Good to see you still have your fan club telling you what a great job you're doing. As you may remember, I applied for the fan club, but you said you didn't want any fans almost as tall as you are.

 

[doggydaddy]

As Geno, by his own admission, never mentions the other team, how will our players know who to guard?

DD, Good to see you still have your fan club telling you what a great job you're doing. As you may remember, I applied for the fan club, but you said you didn't want any fans almost as tall as you are.

Almost as tall as me? Not unless I get the Bria Hartley height shrinking treatment.

I'd like to join the club and beat you over the head with it,