Does UConn Need "Style Points" to Secure a 2-Seed?

[oldude]

Geno has great respect for his fellow coaches in the BE. He will do anything he can to promote the conference. With that said, UConn needs to put on a show this coming weekend during the BE Tournament at the Mohegan Sun, even if some BE teams get bulldozed in the process.

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed. With Iowa St’s bad loss to Baylor at home on Monday night, that may have already happened. Another loss by Iowa St, Michigan or LSU in their respective conference tournaments certainly wouldn’t hurt. But UConn can’t leave it up to fate.

MOV or “Style Points” are not supposed to be a major factor in tournament seeding decisions. But in all honesty, why even have a selection committee in the first place, if “Style Points” or the “Eye Test” are not a consideration? Some bright computer wiz could just write a program, feed in all the information and out pops a 68-team bracket. Charlie Crème and all the other pundits lose their jobs and there is nothing for fans to argue about. IMO, after the committee looks at all the numbers, NET, SOS, injuries, etc., the last few close calls come down to the style points and the eye test.

I believe the Huskies will come out with their foot on the gas on Saturday in Uncasville and I don’t expect them to let up until the championship game is over on Monday evening. Using their 9-player deep rotation, UConn will pressure opponents relentlessly on defense, while pushing the ball up the court in transition, looking to maximize both the score and MOV. If UConn is lucky, they might just earn a rematch with Villanova in the finals, so they can make it abundantly clear that the February 9th game without Paige, Liv & Caroline was quite simply a fluke.

Some might say it doesn’t matter if or when UConn plays SC…..Greensboro, Minneapolis, wherever. The Huskies are a better team than they were in the Bahamas, so let’s bring on the Gamecocks and have at it. Honestly, I’m OK with that way of thinking. But I sure wouldn’t mind a few more games to build momentum, particularly at the friendly confines of Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, CT.

 

[DEpup]

Yes I think they need style points with their now fully stacked line up as contrast to earlier games with BE foes that we're closer with several key players injured. They've now pulverized Marquette so an equally pulverizing defeat of Villanova, Creighton, and/or DePaul by 30-40 would be helpful to the committee to justify taking our injuries into account.... There will be considerable UConn bias chatter so style points would give the committee the political cover to lean into the eye test and ignore the middle part of the season.

 

[oldude]

It has always struck me that whatever analytics are involved in setting up the bracket for the Big Dance, the committee invariably leaves itself room for “rationalization” whenever it’s convenient.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Injuries supposedly are factored into seeding decisions, but how much of a role they play will come down to a decision by the selection committee that they will undoubtedly rationalize in whatever way they deem appropriate.

 

[Boreifs]

This year it does matter when they play SC or Stanford. Every extra week is more time for Paige.

 

[ucbart]

Geno has great respect for his fellow coaches in the BE. He will do anything he can to promote the conference. With that said, UConn needs to put on a show this coming weekend during the BE Tournament at the Mohegan Sun, even if some BE teams get bulldozed in the process.

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed. With Iowa St’s bad loss to Baylor at home on Monday night, that may have already happened. Another loss by Iowa St, Michigan or LSU in their respective conference tournaments certainly wouldn’t hurt. But UConn can’t leave it up to fate.

MOV or “Style Points” are not supposed to be a major factor in tournament seeding decisions. But in all honesty, why even have a selection committee in the first place, if “Style Points” or the “Eye Test” are not a consideration? Some bright computer wiz could just write a program, feed in all the information and out pops a 68-team bracket. Charlie Crème and all the other pundits lose their jobs and there is nothing for fans to argue about. IMO, after the committee looks at all the numbers, NET, SOS, injuries, etc., the last few close calls come down to the style points and the eye test.

I believe the Huskies will come out with their foot on the gas on Saturday in Uncasville and I don’t expect them to let up until the championship game is over on Monday evening. Using their 9-player deep rotation, UConn will pressure opponents relentlessly on defense, while pushing the ball up the court in transition, looking to maximize both the score and MOV. If UConn is lucky, they might just earn a rematch with Villanova in the finals, so they can make it abundantly clear that the February 9th game without Paige, Liv & Caroline was quite simply a fluke.

Some might say it doesn’t matter if or when UConn plays SC…..Greensboro, Minneapolis, wherever. The Huskies are a better team than they were in the Bahamas, so let’s bring on the Gamecocks and have at it. Honestly, I’m OK with that way of thinking. But I sure wouldn’t mind a few more games to build momentum, particularly at the friendly confines of Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, CT.

Another big help would be for indiana to fall out of the top-16 seeds. This would take the B1G out of having 4 teams in the top 16 seeds.

FWIW-if we play Villanova, we have to beat them soundly. We've already beaten DePaul(once), Marquette(once), and Creighton(Once-ish) in blowout fashion while being short handed. I think the committee would be very impressed if we laid the hammer down on Villanova and beat them old school style.

I do ultimately think we will be the 2-seed in Bridgeport and I think that's fair, if injuries are taken into consideration, like the committee says. We need a little help from our friends in the Big 12 and the Big 10, but we also need to help ourselves, too.

And-I think the most massive help is Paige playing more than 13-15 minutes and maybe being the MOP of the tourney....or even making the all tournament team.

 

[MdStang]

It has always struck me that whatever analytics are involved in setting up the bracket for the Big Dance, the committee invariably leaves itself room for “rationalization” whenever it’s convenient.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Injuries supposedly are factored into seeding decisions, but how much of a role they play will come down to a decision by the selection committee that they will undoubtedly rationalize in whatever way they deem appropriate.

The pundits and experts often talk about the "eye test" in regard to NCAA seeding. Looking at the last 2 weeks of the season we certainly pass the "eye test" as a 2 seed. Who else has a bench with a Freshman McD's AA, a former All Big Ten F, a probable WNBA first round pick and last year's national POY?

 

[my2cents]

As usual, Oldude is 100% right. I am resigned to the fact that we will be #3 in the SC region, or #2 in the same region with no difference.
We were under the impression that the selection committee would have two criteria, Quad record ( based on NET) and how teams are playing lately.
Injuries need to be taken into effect, as are players coming back or out. For example, is Tennessee the same team without Horston, obviously not.
So we are a #5 net, which would make us the best 2 seed.
We have added one of the best players in the country, how does that not have a positive effect on our current trend? It does, ask the coaches we have played and are about to play.
No, something else is in play and that has to do with the UCONN bias discussions in and around WCBB, that can't be discussed on this board.

 

[EdSaid]

"Any team, anytime, anyplace" GA

You can't scoreboard watch. You can't wait for someone else to beat SC. If it happens in the 4th game or the 5th game or 6th game, you have to beat them. You either play or you don't.

BE Tournament, peddle to the metal. No regrets. 40-50 points per game.

 

[Rb335]

What uconn can control is winning the big east tournament. That puts them in the best remaining attainable position for the committee. I’m also hopeful the matchups break our way and we get to play DePaul and Creighton to add 2 more Quad 1 games to our resume. That also gives the committee tangible evidence of how a healthy uconn compared to quad 1 talent. Beyond those metrics, not much else uconn can do. The quad 3 loss to Villanova will be used as rationality by the committee for whatever decisions they make.

What we can’t control, is how other teams perform. We could benefit from bad blunders from other 2/3 seeds, or teams falling out of the top 16, relieving conference logjams.

 

[visitingcock]

"Should" not need style-points. But MAY if their NET ranking suffers in comparison to other teams who will face more highly ranked teams in their tournament.

At the current point of the season, I don't see how anybody could say UConn deserves to be ranked below a top 8 team.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I think everyone agrees that they would rather see a UConn-South Carolina matchup in the Final 4 instead of the Elite 8. In order to do that UConn has to avoid the 8 & 9 overall seeds. If the goal is to avoid playing South Carolina before the Final 4, then overall seeds 10-15 would be better than 8 & 9.

The 2 games that Paige has been back, UConn has outperformed the "Massey Spread" by 34 & 27 points. If they can do that for the next 3 games, it will be hard to find 7 or 8 teams playing better than they are.

It has always been my belief that your overall body of work gets you into the tournament and your recent play gets you the seeding.

With the above said, I expect UConn to win by 40+ on Saturday, 25+ on Sunday and 25+ on Monday. I think at least a couple of teams above them will lose a game that actually makes a difference and end up with a 6 or 7 overall seed.

To answer the OP's question, because the Big East is a weak conference, style points will be very important.

 

[BostonCanuck]

Unfortunately the committee wouldn't think twice about underseeing UConn. Recent history proves that, like in 2019 when they were a two-seed with one fewer loss than Louisville, whom they ended up beating in Albany anyway to advance to the Final Four.

So yes, they could very well end up in Greensboro, even if they win out and pass the eye test doing it. But the biggest reason that may not happen is because of how deeply unfair it would be to South Carolina. Think about it. In that scenario, the overall number one seed with the player of the year would be little more than even money (real-world odds) to even get to the Final Four. The committee would need to take a very deep breath before indulging itself with such a move. And that may be what saves the day for South Carolina, and more importantly for the fans.

 

[MooseJaw]

It has always struck me that whatever analytics are involved in setting up the bracket for the Big Dance, the committee invariably leaves itself room for “rationalization” whenever it’s convenient.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Injuries supposedly are factored into seeding decisions, but how much of a role they play will come down to a decision by the selection committee that they will undoubtedly rationalize in whatever way they deem appropriate.

Sad but true. I have tried listening to their rationalizations on past selection eves and end up scratching my hair challenged head, double talk, lack of logic and often devoid of reason. If they can't explain it in simple English, I don't trust their gibberish.

 

[Wbbfan1]

It would help if Louisville and/or NC State were to lose before the finals of the ACC Tournament dropping one of them to a #2 seed. One might drop off the #1 Line after a loss in the ACC Finals anyway if Baylor wins out to get a #1 Seed. Michigan loses to Iowa Baylor Routs Iowa State again. UConn easily wins all their Big East Tournament Games they'll get a #2 seed. UConn might not need all of that to happen if Baylor routs Iowa St. I don't see the Lady Vols beating LSU to get them dropped to a #3 seed.

I think Charlie Creme is right when he predicted/thought UConn will end up as a #2 seed because of Conference Tournament Play.

 

[SLY63]

Does UConn Need "Style Points" to Secure a 2-Seed?

Yes (IMO, it wouldn't hurt)​

 

[Plebe]

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed.

Not necessarily. The second committee reveal of February 10 had UConn as the 3 seed in Bridgeport. It's more about where UConn and other teams end up falling along the S-curve.

So here’s my rationalization. At the start of the season, SC, Stanford & UConn were heads & tails above every other WBB team. UConn’s injuries and illness knocked them down for awhile. But with everyone back & healthy, the Huskies are once again among the top 3 teams in the nation.

Preseason expectations are purely speculative and have never been a factor in postseason seedings. The committee doesn't like to base its decisions on speculation. I understand why homer fans would feel this way but there's a reason why "fans" aren't the committee.

 

[Centerstream]

I don't think that the Committee is even going to look at the BE Tournament Championship if we win it...we are expected to win it.
And conversely if SC, Stanford or NC State lose in their Tournament, nothing will change...they will still be #1 seeds in the region closest to the schools (except for State obviously).

 

[veryolddog]

I think that UConn should be a number 16 seed. Then they can play the number one seed and defeat them and move on to the final four.

 

[oldude]

I don't think that the Committee is even going to look at the BE Tournament Championship if we win it...we are expected to win it.
And conversely if SC, Stanford or NC State lose in their Tournament, nothing will change...they will still be #1 seeds in the region closest to the schools (except for State obviously).

You may be correct that the committee expects UConn to win the BE tournament. But any loss by a top team in March can have really negative ramifications. Should SC lose in the SEC Tournament while NC St wins the ACC Tournament, that might just send NC St to Greensboro and SC to Bridgeport, where it’s not inconceivable that the Gamecocks still run into UConn in the Elite 8.

If no one wants to play UConn right now, they sure as hell don’t want to play the Huskies in Bridgeport.

 

[nomdoux]

Given all factors, the Wichita #2 seed is both the most realistic/fair & also desirable for UConn, provided NC State holds their present overall ranking & therefore gets the Bridgeport #1 seed.

The Committee avoids penalizing NC State with a formidable essential road game, move UConn out of their backyard in down year (thereby resisting bias claim), preserve the Huskies v. South Carolina matchup until the Championship game, & keep Final Four path open for the 3 best teams healthy/on paper (Stanford) without facing each other beforehand.

 

[dtbtbtb]

yes. The "eye test" is important to show that this healthy UConn team with Paige is not the same team that lost 4 out of the 5 times (excluding the SC game where UConn had the full team) this season...

 

[Forego]

Style points won’t make any difference to the selection committee. After years of listening to the selection committee providing their rational for seeding team A in this bracket or at this seed level it has become obvious that the committee plays fast and loose with the criteria and year to year keeps shifting what criteria takes precedence. It is recognized that their task is extremely difficult and the results will not please everyone. But they need to be more consistent with how they apply/weight the criteria to the seeding and bracket assignments.

 

[Waquoit]

The WCBB world wants in the worst way for UConn to get smacked down whenever possible. I'm not going to worry about it. Let them have their fun and underseed UConn. The only losers are whomever gets put in their bracket.

 

[LoboDays]

The IFs are abundant. In the upcoming Power 5 Conference tourneys, 3 #1 seeds will fall. If you’re writing your brackets down, use a pencil.

 

[cabbie191]

Geno has great respect for his fellow coaches in the BE. He will do anything he can to promote the conference. With that said, UConn needs to put on a show this coming weekend during the BE Tournament at the Mohegan Sun, even if some BE teams get bulldozed in the process.

As everyone knows, the last committee reveal prior to March 13 Selection Sunday has UConn as a 3rd seed, 9th overall, slotted for a potential Elite 8 game with SC in the Greensboro Region. For UConn to end up in the Bridgeport Region, the Huskies must be a 2-seed. With Iowa St’s bad loss to Baylor at home on Monday night, that may have already happened. Another loss by Iowa St, Michigan or LSU in their respective conference tournaments certainly wouldn’t hurt. But UConn can’t leave it up to fate.

MOV or “Style Points” are not supposed to be a major factor in tournament seeding decisions. But in all honesty, why even have a selection committee in the first place, if “Style Points” or the “Eye Test” are not a consideration? Some bright computer wiz could just write a program, feed in all the information and out pops a 68-team bracket. Charlie Crème and all the other pundits lose their jobs and there is nothing for fans to argue about. IMO, after the committee looks at all the numbers, NET, SOS, injuries, etc., the last few close calls come down to the style points and the eye test.

I believe the Huskies will come out with their foot on the gas on Saturday in Uncasville and I don’t expect them to let up until the championship game is over on Monday evening. Using their 9-player deep rotation, UConn will pressure opponents relentlessly on defense, while pushing the ball up the court in transition, looking to maximize both the score and MOV. If UConn is lucky, they might just earn a rematch with Villanova in the finals, so they can make it abundantly clear that the February 9th game without Paige, Liv & Caroline was quite simply a fluke.

Some might say it doesn’t matter if or when UConn plays SC…..Greensboro, Minneapolis, wherever. The Huskies are a better team than they were in the Bahamas, so let’s bring on the Gamecocks and have at it. Honestly, I’m OK with that way of thinking. But I sure wouldn’t mind a few more games to build momentum, particularly at the friendly confines of Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, CT.

There are two issues your post addresses. 1) Major point - Does UConn need to wallop opponents in the BE tournament in order to move up in the pecking order to secure placement in Bridgeport. IMO, no - they just need to win out. I think what’s more critical is what happens to the teams ranked just ahead of them by the selection committee.

2) Minor point - It’s implied in the first few sentences of your post that if UConn needs to crush the opposition in the tournament, this might have to occur “reluctantly” because of Geno’s admiration/fondness/respect of his fellow coaches. No reluctance! A hallmark of Husky teams is, if they are playing to his standards, they play at 100% or greater the entire game. With the exception of not throwing up shots in the final seconds of a quarter where the game is clearly already decided, there is no let up. I don’t think Geno cares about the final score nearly as much as the team’s effort and execution, and I don’t think this changes going into the BE tournament even if might impact their NCAA seeding.