Does UCF have a right to claim the National Championship?

[whaler11]

Go ahead and name them. For Bama you get LSU and Clemson. They have no other top 25ish wins.

UCF has Memphis (x2), USF, and Auburn. So they have 3 wins as good as LSU and one win as good as Clemson.

At some point the facts matter more than the eye test. This isn't supposed to be figure skating.

Sure, count UConn and Temple why you are at it.

Those aren’t facts - that a win over Memphis or USF is more meaningful than a win over Mississippi State or LSU is just something you want to be true.

I like how you have forgotten they buried Florida State by taking out their QB. Beating Florida State labor day weekend isn’t as good as beating South Florida - el oh el.

 

[billybud]

Playing Auburn's schedule...LSU, Alabama, Georgia twice, Clemson....I wonder if UCF would be undefeated?

 

[whaler11]

Go ahead and name them. For Bama you get LSU and Clemson. They have no other top 25ish wins.

UCF has Memphis (x2), USF, and Auburn. So they have 3 wins as good as LSU and one win as good as Clemson.

At some point the facts matter more than the eye test. This isn't supposed to be figure skating.

If you want to make an argument for UCF it is the eye test because their resume BLOWS.

 

[John]

My problem with all of this on a personal level is that it's yet another reason to fall out of love with college sports in general.

 

[billybud]

According to Sagarin...Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia...all played five or more teams in the Sagarin Top 30.....UCF played one.

And when you look at the Final Playoff Top 25 Ranking...

UCF played two....Memphis

Bama played three...Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU

Clemson played three...

Oklahoma played three

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't like Alabama being in there. Not because of talent but because they didn't win their own division. At minimum you should have to win your division and play in the conference championship.

Not just that, their schedule sucked. UCF had a tougher schedule.
Alabama Football Schedule, Alabama Football Scoreboard and Results - SEC
They beat two ranked teams, 9-3 LSU and 8-4 Mississippi State. That's it.
UCF won three games against teams in the final top 25. Memphis twice and USF.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Go ahead and name them. For Bama you get LSU and Clemson. They have no other top 25ish wins.

UCF has Memphis (x2), USF, and Auburn. So they have 3 wins as good as LSU and one win as good as Clemson.

At some point the facts matter more than the eye test. This isn't supposed to be figure skating.

Whoa. Why are you counting the win against Clemson? Bama didn't have that when they picked the playoff teams. You count that, you need to count UCF's win against Auburn as well. They happened on the same day.

The reality is that Alabama played the weakest SEC schedule it could possibly play this year, and their big out of conference win came against an FSU team that ended up being crappy. If not UCF, Ohio State was probably more deserving than Alabama this year. That Iowa loss killed them.

 

[whaler11]

Whoa. Why are you counting the win against Clemson? Bama didn't have that when they picked the playoff teams. You count that, you need to count UCF's win against Auburn as well. They happened on the same day.

The reality is that Alabama played the weakest SEC schedule it could possibly play this year, and their big out of conference win came against an FSU team that ended up being crappy. If not UCF, Ohio State was probably more deserving than Alabama this year. That Iowa loss killed them.

FSU was crappy because Alabama injured their quarterback.

 

[BlueDogs]

Playing Auburn's schedule...LSU, Alabama, Georgia twice, Clemson....I wonder if UCF would be undefeated?

Probably not, but then again, neither are the ordained contenders.

 

[SubbaBub]

Sure, count UConn and Temple why you are at it.

Those aren’t facts - that a win over Memphis or USF is more meaningful than a win over Mississippi State or LSU is just something you want to be true.

I like how you have forgotten they buried Florida State by taking out their QB. Beating Florida State labor day weekend isn’t as good as beating South Florida - el oh el.

You mean 6-6 FSU? Sorry, that's what they were. Their QB wasn't 4-6 wins better. You are the one making assumptions, I'm looking at the results.

The best team doesn't always win that's with they play the games. In a world where you can't compare apples to apples directly, you can only rely in the the results. Miss St is not a top 25 team if their name was La Tech, look at who they beat, no one.

 

[stamfordhusky]

They have done everything to make the claim. The committee doesn't look that good right now.

The Committee looks fine. UCF played the nation's 83rd most difficult schedule. They had NO good wins. They struggled to beat a mediocre Memphis team. With their schedule, they had absolutely no right to claim a spot in the final four.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[whaler11]

You mean 6-6 FSU? Sorry, that's what they were. Their QB wasn't 4-6 wins better. You are the one making assumptions, I'm looking at the results.

The best team doesn't always win that's with they play the games. In a world where you can't compare apples to apples directly, you can only rely in the the results. Miss St is not a top 25 team if their name was La Tech, look at who they beat, no one.

Yes he was. It’s moranic to ding FSU for being bad after Alabama themselves ruined their season.

 

[SubbaBub]

Yes he was. It’s moranic to ding FSU for being bad after Alabama themselves ruined their season.

So your in agreement with the people who think Gilbert is the reason we aren't making the Final Four this year?

Come on. Losing a starting QB is tough, but it isn't that tough, you know who else lost their starting QB? Georgia.

FSU was overhyped as is the custom with preseason polls. They are in no way a good win for Bama any more than the cancelled Georgia Tech was a good win for UCF.

And if Memphis isn't a good team then neither is Auburn because Memphis play UCF a lot tougher than Auburn did.

At the end of the day, you have your record and your schedule. UCF is better than Alabama in both regards.

 

[John]

The Committee looks fine. UCF played the nation's 83rd most difficult schedule. They had NO good wins. They struggled to beat a mediocre Memphis team. With their schedule, they had absolutely no right to claim a spot in the final four.

The P5 pretzel twist. As David Byrne sang, "Same As It Ever Was"

 

[whaler11]

So your in agreement with the people who think Gilbert is the reason we aren't making the Final Four this year?

Come on. Losing a starting QB is tough, but it isn't that tough, you know who else lost their starting QB? Georgia.

FSU was overhyped as is the custom with preseason polls. They are in no way a good win for Bama any more than the cancelled Georgia Tech was a good win for UCF.

And if Memphis isn't a good team then neither is Auburn because Memphis play UCF a lot tougher than Auburn did.

At the end of the day, you have your record and your schedule. UCF is better than Alabama in both regards.

Good grief. This seriously is impressively stupid.

1. Francois is much much much much much much much much much better than Gilbert. They had a true freshman behind him - did you notice anything about the shape of their season?

2. The difference between winning and losing in football is who your quarterback is. Google Jimmy Garrapolo maybe you’ll learn something. Penalizing Alabama for causing FSU’s bad record is so painfully backwards it can’t even be comprehended. Sorry Alabama - your win against FSU doesn’t count because your defense was so good as to ruin their season but taking out their key player.

3. Alabama’s schedule is rated higher in every computer ranking of strength of schedule. The composite computer rankings believe that USF and Memphis are much less impressive than you do. Didn’t you want to talk about ‘facts’? What’s more of a fact? That the composite rankings all point in one direction while you point in the opposite?

You want to talk up a schedule that included?
UConn, East Carolina, Temple, Cincinnati, FIU and Austin Peay? They skipped out on Georgia Tech. That’s 7 games without playing ANYONE (playing those 6 teams is only marginally closer to football than skipping Georgia Tech). Those 6 teams could combine and not finish in the top 15. Those teams stunk like low tide in Bangkok.

This is a serious argument? How many times can you get credit for beating Memphis?

Here is the sum total of what Memphis did this year: Beat Navy at home and beat UCLA. Wow - maybe they should beat them a third time and we could put UCF in an AFC wildcard game.

 

[Stinger92860]

Aresco needs to get on every major sports outlet and talkup how the AAC and UCF were screwed by the p5 monopoly.

 

[J187Money]

UCF claiming the national title without winning the CFP kinda feels like somebody making a trophy to win in a made up rivalry game that only one side cares about (...but not really)

Bama made some up - why can't UCF?

Alabama still claims most national titles (with some sketchy counting)

 

[cohenzone]

Good grief. This seriously is impressively stupid.

1. Francois is much much much much much much much much much better than Gilbert. They had a true freshman behind him - did you notice anything about the shape of their season?

2. The difference between winning and losing in football is who your quarterback is. Google Jimmy Garrapolo maybe you’ll learn something. Penalizing Alabama for causing FSU’s bad record is so painfully backwards it can’t even be comprehended. Sorry Alabama - your win against FSU doesn’t count because your defense was so good as to ruin their season but taking out their key player.

3. Alabama’s schedule is rated higher in every computer ranking of strength of schedule. The composite computer rankings believe that USF and Memphis are much less impressive than you do. Didn’t you want to talk about ‘facts’? What’s more of a fact? That the composite rankings all point in one direction while you point in the opposite?

You want to talk up a schedule that included?
UConn, East Carolina, Temple, Cincinnati, FIU and Austin Peay? They skipped out on Georgia Tech. That’s 7 games without playing ANYONE (playing those 6 teams is only marginally closer to football than skipping Georgia Tech). Those 6 teams could combine and not finish in the top 15. Those teams stunk like low tide in Bangkok.

This is a serious argument? How many times can you get credit for beating Memphis?

Here is the sum total of what Memphis did this year: Beat Navy at home and beat UCLA. Wow - maybe they should beat them a third time and we could put UCF in an AFC wildcard game.

I mostly agree except that you are buying into the starting point which might or might not be valid. The computer rankings are not infallible and in an individual case might overlook a team here and there. Teams like Boise, BYU, TCU at times and maybe even this year's UCF. There is a bias on strength of schedule that might be overweighted against a team with a computerized weaker schedule. While I suspect UCF might have a rough time with an Alabama, UCF did beat Auburn and will never be able to show how that might have done against any of the 4 selected teams. They beat everyone on their schedule which is a roster of D1 teams.

 

[Nostical]

The reality is that Alabama played the weakest SEC schedule it could possibly play this year

I agree but stressing that metric wont mean squat if Bama crunches Georgia Monday night. The only way any of these arguments for Ohio State (insert any other team here) being more deserving is if 'Bama loses. If they win, all of the committee's many decision metrics will be vindicated by the football consignetti.

 

[whaler11]

I mostly agree except that you are buying into the starting point which might or might not be valid. The computer rankings are not infallible and in an individual case might overlook a team here and there. Teams like Boise, BYU, TCU at times and maybe even this year's UCF. There is a bias on strength of schedule that might be overweighted against a team with a computerized weaker schedule. While I suspect UCF might have a rough time with an Alabama, UCF did beat Auburn and will never be able to show how that might have done against any of the 4 selected teams. They beat everyone on their schedule which is a roster of D1 teams.

So all the computers that make up the composite have a blind spot for a certain type of team. A lucky coincidence it’s that list of teams?

 

[J187Money]

So all the computers that make up the composite have a blind spot for a certain type of team. A lucky coincidence it’s that list of teams?

By the end of the season that works itself out. Wisconsin was dinged by the computers UNTIL they were 12-0 and the only undefeated team. At that point, the composite rankings had Wisconsin #1.

UCF was #9 in the final composite rankings. Had they played GT and won, they might have been #7 or #8. The bad teams on the UCF schedule were BAD (UCONN included).

 

[cohenzone]

So all the computers that make up the composite have a blind spot for a certain type of team. A lucky coincidence it’s that list of teams?

That they have a programmed assumption about strength that overlooks the possibility that strength of schedule is irrelevant to whether or not a team with a “weak” schedule is actually the best team. As I said, the computer is generally okay, but not perfect. UCF did knock off a team that beat a few of the finalists.

 

[whaler11]

That they have a programmed assumption about strength that overlooks the possibility that strength of schedule is irrelevant to whether or not a team with a “weak” schedule is actually the best team. As I said, the computer is generally okay, but not perfect. UCF did knock off a team that beat a few of the finalists.

I’ll put it gently. You don’t know what you are talking about.

 

[HuskyHawk]

That they have a programmed assumption about strength that overlooks the possibility that strength of schedule is irrelevant to whether or not a team with a “weak” schedule is actually the best team. As I said, the computer is generally okay, but not perfect. UCF did knock off a team that beat a few of the finalists.

This. The computers all use human estimates and rankings as their base point, and retain those flaws all the way to the end. In a much longer season with more games it might work out, but they play so few against common opponents that it's all but impossible to accurately gauge these teams.