Demolish the XL center

[Hans Sprungfeld]

OK, so I did the last 5 years, but ignored last year because we didn't play at XL.

O. M. G. The effect expected by this board is real, and it's huge (at least over the 4 seasons analyzed)!

	Gampel FG delta	Gampel 3P delta
2021-2022	.100	.057
2019-2020	-.005	.000
2018-2019	.060	.087
2017-2018	.067	.153
Mean	.056	.074

Over the aforementioned seasons, UConn's average FG% advantage at Gampel was 5.6% better than at XL. Their relative 3P% advantage was 7.4 percent better! I am completely shocked at how stark this difference is. Granted, this doesn't say anything necessarily about wins and losses, but damn!

I am not an expert in statistics, so please feel free to critique my method. The link below will bring you to the spreadsheet I created and used for the analysis. Let me know if you have any questions regarding the methodology.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1026LdhrZANJ2AxJJm1FhuEb1qHts-FGmUEgt1qzJ9cA/edit?usp=sharing

Post/handle?
Kudos in any case.

 

[Kolumbo]

I got curious about your final sentence, so I took a quick look that might be incomplete.

Somebody had mentioned Villanova earlier.

Does any other team besides St John's play in two arenas?

Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown all play in off-campus arenas that are beyond walking distance, and more than a 10-minute drive.

Maybe there's others. But I don't disagree with your overall point.

True and I'm sure there are others who play in nearby pro arenas. I do think it is different for city folk who are used to hopping on trains buses or walking a few miles. That's the benefit of going to school in a city. The fact that we choose to play both hoops and football off campus was really driving my statement.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

True and I'm sure there are others who play in nearby pro arenas. I do think it is different for city folk who are used to hopping on trains buses or walking a few miles. That's the benefit of going to school in a city. The fact that we choose to play both hoops and football off campus was really driving my statement.

That's why I added my agreement w/you.
But having sunk my own (modest) cost in time spent answering a curiosity, I figured I might as well offer to others what I'd learned.

 

[Kolumbo]

One day I was checking out Pitt with their fans calling for a new basketball facility building a new football stadium. You can actually see where the old football stadium was where Petersen now sits.

Petersen Events Center · 3719 Terrace St, Pittsburgh, PA 15261

★★★★★ · Arena

www.google.com

 

[Kolumbo]

That's why I added my agreement w/you.
But having sunk my own (modest) cost in time spent answering a curiosity, I figured I might as well offer to others what I'd learned.

Well, technically you said you didn't disagree.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Lmfao sure why don’t we play all our games on the road then! Sure to be nice and battle tested!

I always appreciate when it seems easy enough to Log Out and check out some 'missing' posts, so I can see to what & whom a response was directed. It was all the more fun when it was pointed out that the Creighton game lost last year was played in a crowdless Gampel, even though it still was a more familiar venue. I'm glad he ignores me. I must have rolled my eyes too loudly once too often.

 

[Kemba Time]

OK, so I did the last 5 years, but ignored last year because we didn't play at XL.

O. M. G. The effect expected by this board is real, and it's huge (at least over the 4 seasons analyzed)!

	Gampel FG delta	Gampel 3P delta
2021-2022	.100	.057
2019-2020	-.005	.000
2018-2019	.060	.087
2017-2018	.067	.153
Mean	.056	.074

Over the aforementioned seasons, UConn's average FG% advantage at Gampel was 5.6% better than at XL. Their relative 3P% advantage was 7.4 percent better! I am completely shocked at how stark this difference is. Granted, this doesn't say anything necessarily about wins and losses, but damn!

I am not an expert in statistics, so please feel free to critique my method. The link below will bring you to the spreadsheet I created and used for the analysis. Let me know if you have any questions regarding the methodology.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1026LdhrZANJ2AxJJm1FhuEb1qHts-FGmUEgt1qzJ9cA/edit?usp=sharing

This has the potential to be really interesting, and I very much appreciate you putting the work here ... But you have to control for the difference in opponent for this to have any relevance.

This is very much back-of-the-napkin math on my part but looking at this season's opponents as a starting point.

Average KenPom rank
Gampel -- 231
XL -- 192

Taken a step farther

Average KenPom defensive rank
Gampel -- 227
XL --142

Playing an average opponent that far apart, especially in defensive efficiency, is going to play an incredible part in performance.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Hello, Harford! Announcing Hard Rock Hotel Hartford

Introducing Hard Rock Hotel Hartford, a new-build 170-room property set to open fall 2018 in the Capital City’s fast evolving Downtown North (“DoNo”) neighborhood. Developed in collaboration with Centerplan Companies and managed by Hard Rock

news.hardrock.com

I never wanted that press release to end, and I wondered if it ever would.

The laughs will have to suffice while I await the posting 'elsewhere' of a video clip from an @August_West live-streaming that purports to capture an interaction with the alerted manager in the aftermath of a chocolate-dripped chicken wing at a Golden Corral buffet in Michigan.

PS - The subsequent post that elicited your "?" reply, is about how Hard Rock's headline spelled it "Harford," which I only know as an I-95 road sign amusement announcing a county near Baltimore with that name.

 

[Get a Job]

This has the potential to be really interesting, and I very much appreciate you putting the work here ... But you have to control for the difference in opponent for this to have any relevance.

This is very much back-of-the-napkin math on my part but looking at this season's opponents as a starting point.

Average KenPom rank
Gampel -- 231
XL -- 192

Taken a step farther

Average KenPom defensive rank
Gampel -- 227
XL --142

Playing an average opponent that far apart, especially in defensive efficiency, is going to play an incredible part in performance.

Agreed. I was skeptical of the venue effect before my analysis, and I'm still-but-less skeptical. Your critique is a great example of the limitations of my analysis. Unfortunately I lack the time, skills and will to go as deep as needed to get a really robust picture of the reality of the situation. Imagine doing 60 hours of work to find out that there is no difference between the venues!!

 

[John]

How fragile a program/team are we if this difference between venues is really true? Good/great teams are good/great wherever they play.

 

[August_West]

I never wanted that press release to end, and I wondered if it ever would.

The laughs will have to suffice while I await the posting 'elsewhere' of a video clip from an @August_West live-streaming that purports to capture an interaction with the alerted manager in the aftermath of a chocolate-dripped chicken wing at a Golden Corral buffet in Michigan.

PS - The subsequent post that elicited your "?" reply, is about how Hard Rock's headline spelled it "Harford," which I only know as an I-95 road sign amusement announcing a county near Baltimore with that name.

I'm thinking I should monetize this.

 

[Deepster]

Um, have you looked at what is going up across the street from the baseball park?

Yes. Pretty sure they don't think anything will be ready for another 18 months. Is that inaccurate?

 

[Waquoit]

Playing in Hartford makes zero sense, financially or athletically, for UConn, but it will continue to be supported by people who talk about how convenient it was for them to drown their sorrows after the game.

I just felt like the finances needed to be talked about in this thread

UConn collects seat donations for two locations. Cancel out the XL and all that seat donation money goes away. I figure that's gotta be at least $1M a year for the $1,000 seats alone. So any discussion of finances without factoring in that money is just bad faith.

 

[Tenspro2002]

OK, so I did the last 5 years, but ignored last year because we didn't play at XL.

O. M. G. The effect expected by this board is real, and it's huge (at least over the 4 seasons analyzed)!

	Gampel FG delta	Gampel 3P delta
2021-2022	.100	.057
2019-2020	-.005	.000
2018-2019	.060	.087
2017-2018	.067	.153
Mean	.056	.074

Over the aforementioned seasons, UConn's average FG% advantage at Gampel was 5.6% better than at XL. Their relative 3P% advantage was 7.4 percent better! I am completely shocked at how stark this difference is. Granted, this doesn't say anything necessarily about wins and losses, but damn!

I am not an expert in statistics, so please feel free to critique my method. The link below will bring you to the spreadsheet I created and used for the analysis. Let me know if you have any questions regarding the methodology.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1026LdhrZANJ2AxJJm1FhuEb1qHts-FGmUEgt1qzJ9cA/edit?usp=sharing

You'd want to normalize it by quality of opponent (KenPom defensive rating, for example) in each venue to make sure that what you're seeing isn't just that we play more cupcake games in Gampel than XL.

 

[Kemba Time]

You'd want to normalize it by quality of opponent (KenPom defensive rating, for example) in each venue to make sure that what you're seeing isn't just that we play more cupcake games in Gampel than XL.

I did that above for this season. It's substantial. Will try to look for other years if I have time at some point.

 

[zls44]

UConn collects seat donations for two locations. Cancel out the XL and all that seat donation money goes away. I figure that's gotta be at least $1M a year for the $1,000 seats alone. So any discussion of finances without factoring in that money is just bad faith.

You also gain the chance to sell thousands more in future season tickets by building a more fanatical alumni fanbase with the current student body.

Try thinking of the future, just one time.

 

[John]

You also gain the chance to sell thousands more in future season tickets by building a more fanatical alumni fanbase with the current student body.

Try thinking of the future, just one time.

the financial needs are now.

 

[Get a Job]

I did that above for this season. It's substantial. Will try to look for other years if I have time at some point.

If you're interested, I made the spreadsheet editable, so feel to add to and use it.

 

[Kemba Time]

You also gain the chance to sell thousands more in future season tickets by building a more fanatical alumni fanbase with the current student body.

Try thinking of the future, just one time.

This is nonsensical unless the argument is allowing UConn to play all of the games in only one of Gampel or XL Center.

UConn has much more to gain into the future by playing half of its home games in a venue that holds 6,000 more fans in a centrally located part of the state than it does by playing a handful more games each season on campus.

There is a very limited chance that students are going to become "more fanatical" because they went to a dozen games at Gampel instead of a half-dozen in a given season. And in fact, many of these same students will settle in other parts of the state and only buy season tickets as alumni if Hartford is an option.

But there is evidence all over the state -- and this board -- of people who became UConn fans (and then UConn students and then UConn season-ticket holders) because they had the chance to attend UConn games as kids who would lose that opportunity if all games were played in a smaller venue farther from where they live.

Playing at the XL Center serves a very important role in making UConn Basketball the state's de facto pro team -- something Jim Calhoun often mentioned -- that is incredibly vital to the brand if you are willing to think of the future, just this one time.

 

[Waquoit]

You also gain the chance to sell thousands more in future season tickets by building a more fanatical alumni fanbase with the current student body.

Try thinking of the future, just one time.

I still don't get how not having every game at Gampel keeps a student from being a big fan. It wasn't the case for me. I loved Hartford games when I was at Storrs. And I'm pretty sure more students have cars now then back then. I didn't have one. What's changed?

 

[8893]

I still don't get how not having every game at Gampel keeps a student from being a big fan. It wasn't the case for me. I loved Hartford games when I was at Storrs. And I'm pretty sure more students have cars now then back then. I didn't have one. What's changed?

No more Chuck’s or Margaritaville.

 

[Greedo]

True and I'm sure there are others who play in nearby pro arenas. I do think it is different for city folk who are used to hopping on trains buses or walking a few miles. That's the benefit of going to school in a city. The fact that we choose to play both hoops and football off campus was really driving my statement.

This is true. Villanova has a train station in the middle of campus. It's easy for students to get on the train to go to Well's Fargo when they have games in the city.

 

[JohnFSilver]

I got curious about your final sentence, so I took a quick look that might be incomplete.

Somebody had mentioned Villanova earlier.

Does any other team besides St John's play in two arenas?

Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown all play in off-campus arenas that are beyond walking distance, and more than a 10-minute drive.

Maybe there's others. But I don't disagree with your overall point.

Rupp Arena is not on the UK campus and is not owned or controlled by the University of Kentucky. But, it is right downtown lexington. Gotta be a 10 minute walk to the arena. But it doesn't have a campus atmosphere.

How much does it cost to rent Rupp Arena?

UK's new deal with the Rupp Arena was announced this past winter. Starting in the fall of 2018, the school will pay $1.9 million annually in base rent for Rupp Arena, with that number set to grow incrementally. Each year's new rate will be calculated as a 2.4 percent increase to the current rent minus $300,00

 

[JohnFSilver]

I still don't get how not having every game at Gampel keeps a student from being a big fan. It wasn't the case for me. I loved Hartford games when I was at Storrs. And I'm pretty sure more students have cars now then back then. I didn't have one. What's changed?

Me neither. Sister and I had season tickets. We would be in hartford all the time. It was awesome.