DD needed to go pro for the following reasons:
1) He's already 22, and he'd be 23 at the time of the next draft. (# of players aged 23 at time of draft who were drafted in top 20 picks.. 2013- None, 2012- None, 2011- None, 2010- None, are you getting this picture?) GMs project based on age. If he came back to school and dominated, it's what he would be supposed to do as a turning 23 year-old senior and his stock would stay around the same, or only slightly improve.
2) If an injury to Nerlens Noel can cost him 6 spots in the draft, imagine what it would do to DD's late first round stock currently. Older players' stock is impacted worse by injuries than younger ones', since teams draft older guys in a hope they can contribute immediately.
3) His stock is artificially inflated right now due to championship exposure. His talent is legit, but the exposure that influences opinions (most likely!) wouldn't be repeated next year.
4) Stretch 4's are hot in the league right now and that can help earn him a late first round look. Could be hot next year, too, but maybe not as much.
5) There is 0 guarantee he'd improve and dominate next year. For example, he shot 42% from 3 this year, and it is reasonable to suggest that would go down if he faced more defensive pressure and took more shots. He certainly could improve in some or even all areas, but how likely is a consistent improvement? It would have to be dramatic to raise his stock. He averaged a 13-6 this year. Anything less than 18-8 probably LOWERS his stock, considering expectations and the age quandary.
6) He can come back for his degree any time he wants later, and he would have missed out on a year of potential basketball salary earning. As we know, it's the 2nd and later contracts that pay, so the younger you get to those contracts, the more earning years in your prime you have.
1) He's already 22, and he'd be 23 at the time of the next draft. (# of players aged 23 at time of draft who were drafted in top 20 picks.. 2013- None, 2012- None, 2011- None, 2010- None, are you getting this picture?) GMs project based on age. If he came back to school and dominated, it's what he would be supposed to do as a turning 23 year-old senior and his stock would stay around the same, or only slightly improve.
2) If an injury to Nerlens Noel can cost him 6 spots in the draft, imagine what it would do to DD's late first round stock currently. Older players' stock is impacted worse by injuries than younger ones', since teams draft older guys in a hope they can contribute immediately.
3) His stock is artificially inflated right now due to championship exposure. His talent is legit, but the exposure that influences opinions (most likely!) wouldn't be repeated next year.
4) Stretch 4's are hot in the league right now and that can help earn him a late first round look. Could be hot next year, too, but maybe not as much.
5) There is 0 guarantee he'd improve and dominate next year. For example, he shot 42% from 3 this year, and it is reasonable to suggest that would go down if he faced more defensive pressure and took more shots. He certainly could improve in some or even all areas, but how likely is a consistent improvement? It would have to be dramatic to raise his stock. He averaged a 13-6 this year. Anything less than 18-8 probably LOWERS his stock, considering expectations and the age quandary.
6) He can come back for his degree any time he wants later, and he would have missed out on a year of potential basketball salary earning. As we know, it's the 2nd and later contracts that pay, so the younger you get to those contracts, the more earning years in your prime you have.
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