Dana O'Neil on UConn post season chances

[Matt1010]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but the passage is from an ESPN article making predictions a month from Selection Sunday. I don't mind the prediction but the lack of respect for everyone but Bazz is appalling.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/p...day-brings-predictions-make-look-smart-stupid

Prediction that will make me look stupid: Shabazz Napier will channel his inner Kemba Walker and UConn will streak into the NCAA tournament by winning its last nine regular-season games and the inaugural American tournament. Napier will be in the player of the year conversation and hard to keep off All-American ballots. And help four old ladies safely cross an intersection.

Yeah, this is totally a prisoner of the moment thing.

Napier just about single-handedly beat Memphis on Saturday afternoon, so indulge the frenzy.

The reality is, the surrounding cast of Huskies aren't nearly as good as the ones Walker had around him. There is no Alex Oriakhi here or Roscoe Smith, and Ryan Boatright isn't as reliable a backcourt mate as Jeremy Lamb.

Napier has carried UConn for virtually the entire year, asked to do more longer even than Walker did back in 2011.

And Napier won't play his conference tourney in Madison Square Garden, where UConn fans can turn it into a home court. The Huskies will go to Memphis, the Tigers' legit home court.

So logically and realistically this is silly, totally knee-jerk, ride the hot hand kind of hysteria.

However ... the American isn't the Big East. It's not even half of it. It's a five-team conference with a bunch of drivel.

And the schedule breaks nicely for UConn. The Huskies have six regular-season games left. Three are against Temple, South Florida and Rutgers. Napier could hop on one foot and UConn would win those.

Two of the three remaining trickier ones, against SMU (who'd a thunk we'd ever say tricky and SMU in the same sentence?) and Cincinnati are at home; the other at Louisville to finish up the season. The Cards are nearly as interior-challenged as the Huskies and Napier can go mano-a-mano with Russ Smith any day (he did, after all, have 30 against UL earlier this year).

And then it's on to the conference tournament, where the Huskies will get a bye at least to the quarterfinals. So I'm saying there's a chance.

 

[tcf15]

I don't think it's disrespectful to this current team to say there is no Oriakhi, Roscoe or Lamb and that Napier has had to shoulder more of a load than Kemba did. That's just a credit to the 2011 team of how underrated they were in terms of total talent.

 

[Kitaman]

Its really unfair to Kemba. Hell a couple of years ago he did the impossible, now people are casually talking as if what Kemba did can be repeated. I say it won't, as that was a historic moment in time.

Bazz will have to do it differently, in his own way. I just hope he does not feel a burden is put on his shoulders, and he just plays Bazz ball. Its really up to the supporting cast to get us deep in the Tourney(s). In other words this go around its all about our team, and not a Savior. We go as far as the team takes us not Bazz. He needs them and they need him.

 

[storrsroars]

I don't take issue with Dana suggesting Kemba had more support. Kromah has been solid, but pretty much everyone else has been uneven, including Boat, DD and Giffey. And it was about mid-February that Lamb really started making his presence known - and he was great from that point on. You also can't argue that AO and Roscoe were better on the inside.

That said, when 2014 is hitting on all cylinders, I'd take them. But I think 2011 wins 60% of the matchups as the 2014 doesn't hit on all cylinders most of the time. That could well change with Bromah starting to exert himself and DD getting back to top form. This is the time everything needs to come together, and hopefully it does.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Boatright this year: 12.4 ppg, 39.4% from 3, 3.6 apg, 3.4 rebound per game

Lamb 2010-11: 11 ppg, 36.8% from 3, 1.6 apg, 4.5 boards per game

So I kind of disagree with her saying Boat not as reliable backcourt mate as Lamb

 

[Walker11]

The talent on the current team is very underrated. We don't have the NBA talent of Lamb and Kemba but are much more experienced. Kromah, Deandre and Boat are pretty damn good and all are experienced. Bazz is a first team AA. Griffey is light years better than his freshman version.

 

[RichZ]

I think he's underselling LK and DD. And Boat should be compared to the freshman 'bazz, not to Jermey.

 

[Jerry1714]

Boatright this year: 12.4 ppg, 39.4% from 3, 3.6 apg, 3.4 rebound per game

Lamb 2010-11: 11 ppg, 36.8% from 3, 1.6 apg, 4.5 boards per game

So I kind of disagree with her saying Boat not as reliable backcourt mate as Lamb

Lamb averaged about 16 ppg in the BET and NCAAT, he was also 12-17 from 3 in the NCAAT.

It would be awesome to get that production from Boat during the AAC and NCAAT

 

[storrsroars]

Boatright this year: 12.4 ppg, 39.4% from 3, 3.6 apg, 3.4 rebound per game

Lamb 2010-11: 11 ppg, 36.8% from 3, 1.6 apg, 4.5 boards per game

So I kind of disagree with her saying Boat not as reliable backcourt mate as Lamb

Lamb didn't start playing 30+ mins until mid-January. And Lamb got remarkably better from outside the arc and getting to the FT line more often after Feb.

Quick look at Lamb's 3 pt shooting for 2010-11:
Nov-Jan: 17-54 31.5%
Feb: 11-32 34.7%
Mar/Apr: 17-35 48.6%

Obviously, Lamb's PPG followed a similar trajectory. So Lamb went from an afterthought to a legit scoring threat and deadly wing shooter that year. Boat has been looked at as a #2/3 scoring threat all year.

 

[breezy]

Bazz's career will meet a literary ending regardless of what happens. I just hope his last game doesn't look like his game @ cincy.

 

[Sportsman5]

I think Dana Oneil is focusing on how the 2011 team played at it's best and how the 2014 team has played on average. Kemba literally carried the team on his back in 2/3 of games that season. The 2014 team is deeper and more experienced. The only way I would take 2014 is if I thought Kemba was more valuable than bazz. Take bazz and kemba off each team and I would take 2014 just about every time. Boatright, kromah, Giffey, Daniels, Nolan starting 5 with Brimah, Calhoun, and Olander off the bench.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but the passage is from an ESPN article making predictions a month from Selection Sunday. I don't mind the prediction but the lack of respect for everyone but Bazz is appalling.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/p...day-brings-predictions-make-look-smart-stupid

Prediction that will make me look stupid: Shabazz Napier will channel his inner Kemba Walker and UConn will streak into the NCAA tournament by winning its last nine regular-season games and the inaugural American tournament. Napier will be in the player of the year conversation and hard to keep off All-American ballots. And help four old ladies safely cross an intersection.

Yeah, this is totally a prisoner of the moment thing.

Napier just about single-handedly beat Memphis on Saturday afternoon, so indulge the frenzy.

The reality is, the surrounding cast of Huskies aren't nearly as good as the ones Walker had around him. There is no Alex Oriakhi here or Roscoe Smith, and Ryan Boatright isn't as reliable a backcourt mate as Jeremy Lamb.

Napier has carried UConn for virtually the entire year, asked to do more longer even than Walker did back in 2011.

And Napier won't play his conference tourney in Madison Square Garden, where UConn fans can turn it into a home court. The Huskies will go to Memphis, the Tigers' legit home court.

So logically and realistically this is silly, totally knee-jerk, ride the hot hand kind of hysteria.

However ... the American isn't the Big East. It's not even half of it. It's a five-team conference with a bunch of drivel.

And the schedule breaks nicely for UConn. The Huskies have six regular-season games left. Three are against Temple, South Florida and Rutgers. Napier could hop on one foot and UConn would win those.

Two of the three remaining trickier ones, against SMU (who'd a thunk we'd ever say tricky and SMU in the same sentence?) and Cincinnati are at home; the other at Louisville to finish up the season. The Cards are nearly as interior-challenged as the Huskies and Napier can go mano-a-mano with Russ Smith any day (he did, after all, have 30 against UL earlier this year).

And then it's on to the conference tournament, where the Huskies will get a bye at least to the quarterfinals. So I'm saying there's a chance.

I'll miss this... Glad i was a part of a few of those games, especially the championship game against ville

 

[PAHusky]

There are two types of husky tournaments teams - those you think can make a run (99, 04 and 11, obviously, also 06 and 09 and a few others) and those that can't (for example - did anyone really believe we were going anywhere in 2012?). Of the former, there's a further bifurcation - teams you expect to make a run (99,04, 06) and teams you think can make a run (2011, 2014). For the teams that you think can make a run, you're really looking at three major variables - the team's demonstrated ceiling, confidence/coaching, and whether or not there are any dominant teams in the field. For example, in 2011, we'd seen from the Maui tournament, the Texas and Nova regular season wins, and the BE tourney that our ceiling, when we played well, was extremely high. We knew we had a POY candidate. We entered the tourney off of an unprecedented run with a HOF coach fully engaged and hungry and mentally we were in an untouchable place. As far as our competition, there really weren't any dominant teams that year. The final four was Butler, VCU, Squid Squad and us. Not to demean our championship, but things would have been more difficult in other years (and they would have been easier in some years too - again, not taking anything away from the team).

Compare that to this year. What's our ceiling? I'm not really sure if we've seen it. Memphis at Memphis? The first 35 minutes of the Cinci game? The first half against Maryland? Florida definitely warrants consideration. I think we can play better, but we need to see it before the tourney. As far as mentally, I think this team's confidence is peaking, which is nice. This obviously depends on how the rest of the season shakes out but, like the 2011 team, I'm glad that we (fingers crossed) got the ugly losses out of system in the middle dregs of the campaign. In terms of the rest of the field, I think it's wide open again. Cuse is cuse. Florida is a great team but we've beaten them (albeit at home) so we know doing it again isn't ludicrous. Wichita St? Right. Zona is wounded. Duke sucks. A handful of other teams are dangerous but also substantially flawed. Overall, the field is wide open again. We'll see how things shake out but for now I'm chugging the kool aid. Not sure if we win it but I think we'll make a nice run.

 

[dante]

I think Dana Oneil is focusing on how the 2011 team played at it's best and how the 2014 team has played on average. Kemba literally carried the team on his back in 2/3 of games that season. The 2014 team is deeper and more experienced. The only way I would take 2014 is if I thought Kemba was more valuable than bazz. Take bazz and kemba off each team and I would take 2014 just about every time. Boatright, kromah, Giffey, Daniels, Nolan starting 5 with Brimah, Calhoun, and Olander off the bench.

I would take the 2011 team i think they were better defensively rebounded better and blocked better, roscoe and oriahki(sp?) would abuse our current bigs, junior boat versus freshman bazz i would take bazz

 

[tzznandrew]

did anyone really believe we were going anywhere in 2012?

Sadly, me. No matter how objective I am about most things in life, I always talk myself into thinking UConn can do much better than their record suggests. I thought: get by Iowa State, and then they'll be pumped up for Kentucky, to prove everyone wrong. And then Royce White and a second Roscoe Smith half-court heave happened, and reality set in...

And that certainly isn't the first time. Give me Donyell Marshall's free throws, and, sure, we could have beaten Arkansas. And UCLA anywhere but Cali...back to back. And 1996? Keep Ricky healthy, and why not a three-peat? And...

 

[Gringo]

I think Dana Oneil is focusing on how the 2011 team played at it's best and how the 2014 team has played on average. Kemba literally carried the team on his back in 2/3 of games that season. The 2014 team is deeper and more experienced. The only way I would take 2014 is if I thought Kemba was more valuable than bazz. Take bazz and kemba off each team and I would take 2014 just about every time. Boatright, kromah, Giffey, Daniels, Nolan starting 5 with Brimah, Calhoun, and Olander off the bench.

I disagree. 2011 team likely has four eventual draft picks: Kemba, Lamb, Napier, and Roscoe. Both Napier and Roscoe are projected late first or second round picks. Throw in Oriaki, Coombs-McDaniel, Giffey and Olander and that's a deep team. From the players on both teams obviously Bazz and Giffey are greatly improved, but Olander is pretty much the same player.

I really like this years team and think we are ready to make a run, but I don't think we have four future NBA players on the roster. I guess you could argue Bazz, Daniels, Boatright, and Brimah but the last three are not locks to play in the NBA. I hope they prove me wrong and get to the league though.

 

[Sportsman5]

I would take the 2011 team i think they were better defensively rebounded better and blocked better, roscoe and oriahki(sp?) would abuse our current bigs, junior boat versus freshman bazz i would take bazz

Roscoe would abuse Nolan and Brimah? Scoe was a decent rebounder but was 6'8" and 200 lbs his freshman year and could not create his own offense. Oriakhi would be the best big on either team and played very well in certain games in the season. However he lacked consistent post moves, had questionable hands, and committed some bad fouls. This topic has been talked about time and time again, so I don't want to say anymore. Freshman bazz over Boatright? I believe you are thinking of Sophomore bazz. Bazz showed flashes in some games, but was clearly a freshman and it would be extremely difficult to say he was better as a freshman than boatright is as a junior.

 

[Sportsman5]

I disagree. 2011 team likely has four eventual draft picks: Kemba, Lamb, Napier, and Roscoe. Both Napier and Roscoe are projected late first or second round picks. Throw in Oriaki, Coombs-McDaniel, Giffey and Olander and that's a deep team. From the players on both teams obviously Bazz and Giffey are greatly improved, but Olander is pretty much the same player.

I really like this years team and think we are ready to make a run, but I don't think we have four future NBA players on the roster. I guess you could argue Bazz, Daniels, Boatright, and Brimah but the last three are not locks to play in the NBA. I hope they prove me wrong and get to the league though.

How does a players NBA draft status or best year in the NCAA have anything to do with how good they were as freshman? Of course I would take kemba his junior year, lamb his sophomore year, napier his senior year, and Scoe this year. That team would likely be one of the best teams in NCAA history. Kemba plus all of those players freshman years is astronomically different. If we have this discussion 3 years from now and look at Facey, Brimah, and Nolan on the same team I bet we will wonder how the hell we weren't dominant inside. Once a player is a very good upperclassman it is difficult to remember how much worse they were as freshman because most players look almost the same from a physical perspective from 18-19 to 20-21

 

[tzznandrew]

2011 would beat 2014. That is is a conversation is a testament to how good 2014 can be. But Memphis' guards were blowing past our guards...who stays in front of Kemba? The defense, rebounding, and best player all go to 2011. I think the offense is, at times, better this year...but still, I'll take the national championship team with the player having the individual UConn season of all time every day. Especially in March, when it matters the most.

 

[Gringo]

How does a players NBA draft status or best year in the NCAA have anything to do with how good they were as freshman? Of course I would take kemba his junior year, lamb his sophomore year, napier his senior year, and Scoe this year. That team would likely be one of the best teams in NCAA history. Kemba plus all of those players freshman years is astronomically different. If we have this discussion 3 years from now and look at Facey, Brimah, and Nolan on the same team I bet we will wonder how the hell we weren't dominant inside. Once a player is a very good upperclassman it is difficult to remember how much worse they were as freshman because most players look almost the same from a physical perspective from 18-19 to 20-21

It reflects on the overall talent level on the team. Of course players can grow and get better and by no means is it a perfect comparison. There is no way to know for sure so the argument is moot, but personally I think 2011 team was a better team. Fortunately we are still playing this year and the team is improving. I'm looking forward to see what they do down the stretch.

 

[superjohn]

You guys are seriously overrating Roscoe's freshman year, he averaged 6.3 ppg, 5.2 rebs. on 38% shooting. He played very good defense but he was pretty raw in all of the other aspects of the game. I thought Oriakhi was huge in a couple of tournament games but he was inconsistent all year. It was amazing what that team did but I think people are really forgetting some of the struggles during the regular season.

 

[tzznandrew]

You guys are seriously overrating Roscoe's freshman year, he averaged 6.3 ppg, 5.2 rebs. on 38% shooting. He played very good defense but he was pretty raw in all of the other aspects of the game. I thought Oriakhi was huge in a couple of tournament games but he was inconsistent all year. It was amazing what that team did but I think people are really forgetting some of the struggles during the regular season.

There were struggles, but most of those were in a beast of a Big East where the refs decided not to call fouls--and they especially didn't care if Kemba was clobbered. The defense of that team, by the end of the year, was suffocating in a way we hadn't seen in a long time.

 

[mauconnfan]

There were struggles, but most of those were in a beast of a Big East where the refs decided not to call fouls--and they especially didn't care if Kemba was clobbered. The defense of that team, by the end of the year, was suffocating in a way we hadn't seen in a long time.

Quite honestly our bigs weren't a lot better in the Big East regular season that year than what we get now……real good at Maui and BE tourney on though…….

 

[dante]

Roscoe would abuse Nolan and Brimah? Scoe was a decent rebounder but was 6'8" and 200 lbs his freshman year and could not create his own offense. Oriakhi would be the best big on either team and played very well in certain games in the season. However he lacked consistent post moves, had questionable hands, and committed some bad fouls. This topic has been talked about time and time again, so I don't want to say anymore. Freshman bazz over Boatright? I believe you are thinking of Sophomore bazz. Bazz showed flashes in some games, but was clearly a freshman and it would be extremely difficult to say he was better as a freshman than boatright is as a junior.

Kemba was at his best when bazz was running the point, freshman bazz d was sickening he would stay on his man and not let him breath what was bazz nickname ( reach around something)? because he was steadily strip the ball of whoever he was guarding unlike today.. roscoe played better d and rebounded better then anyone one in our team oriakhi would out muscle our bigs.. we all have our opinions

 

[Sportsman5]

It reflects on the overall talent level on the team. Of course players can grow and get better and by no means is it a perfect comparison. There is no way to know for sure so the argument is moot, but personally I think 2011 team was a better team. Fortunately we are still playing this year and the team is improving. I'm looking forward to see what they do down the stretch.

the NBA drafts mostly on potential. The NBA focuses on physical measurables such as height, wing span, vertical leap etc. Talent has a lot to do with actual basketball skills and ability to execute those basketball skills. Some of the most talented basketball players in the world don't play in the NBA because they are 2-3 inches too short. An argument can be made that Kemba would carry the team and would outplay bazz, but the supporting cast around Napier is better than kembas supporting cast. if you don't think so than I suggest you rewatch the entire 2011 season. The offense was TERRIBLE besides kemba. that's why he averaged almost 25 per game. UConn has four players in Bazz, boat, Kromah and Daniels that can legitimately create their own offense on a consistent basis. the 2014 team is also a great 3 point shooting team. Maybe the 2011 team is a better defensively and rebounding, but 2014 blows 2011 out of the water defensively.