CV Returning

[champs99and04]

When your starting point is so low, incremental improvements are only getting you so far, even with better coaching. Then you're looking at the additions of 2 talented redshirting players, one of whom has RS'd for 2 years, and 2 grad transfer role players from bad teams. None of whom have a track record that suggest they could fix the most glaring weakness on the team (shooting).

And people suggest we're going to jump 140+ teams in quality to even get on the bubble?

I mean sure, if absolutely everything breaks right there's a chance we could make the tournament, but this should be under no circumstance remotely close to what some in this thread have called a "reasonable expectation".

It's not that uncommon. Boston College jumped nearly 100 spots last year with basically the same players. Auburn went from 82 to 23. Penn State went from 87 to 19. UCF was at 185 in 2016 and finished 68th in 2017.

Starting from scratch is the expectation in this sport. Coaches are in constant crisis management mode because that's what the job requires. And it's not just Kentucky replacing five lottery picks with five McDonald's all-Americans. Players transfer, graduate, and declare early all the time. If you're searching for any sort of meaningful correlation between one season and another, it's probably not going to exist barring obvious cases where a good team stays good or an obviously overmatched team stays overmatched. Things like talent and experience are far more indicative of how the betting market will value a particular team. On that front, any known quantities give you an advantage. Jalen Adams is indisputably a great player unless something goes wrong. Gilbert is a player we know is going to be good. Same with Vital, same with Smith. Carlton, Wilson, Diarra, and Polley have the tools to be good. This isn't the NBA. A player does not have a static value that may fluctuate every now and again. Their development is measured against historical prototypes and not their past selves. There is a reason Loyola Chicago is fetching longer odds than us to win the title despite the fact that they finished 150 spots ahead of us on KenPom and return four of their best six players.

I'm not trying to impose a hard line by any means. There are serious limitations, especially in the front court. But it's not a roster that's remarkably different from the one that would have been tournament bound in Ollie's first year at the helm. In fact, I'd argue it's better. People underestimate how profoundly a couple of players can impact a team.

 

[Waquoit]

But it's not a roster that's remarkably different from the one that would have been tournament bound in Ollie's first year at the helm. In fact, I'd argue it's better.

And you'd be wrong. You Ollie-fluffers need to turn the page.

 

[champs99and04]

Your post really doesn't make much sense. You called out people on their expectations and point to us having Alterique coming off of injury as a reason why expectations should not at all be lowered while also saying Larrier was a net negative. Larrier was also coming off of injury.

I'm saying things aren't much different now than they were last year at this time, when most of us expected - provided the health of Gilbert - that we would make the tournament or at least come close. Given the fact that your expectations for this season seem similar to mine, I'm not sure what the hang-up is. Obviously if Gilbert still isn't right, that changes things. I never expected Larrier to be that good last year, at least early on.

 

[champs99and04]

And you'd be wrong. You Ollie-fluffers need to turn the page.

My argument that the team will dramatically improve because of the fact that Hurley will do a much better job than Ollie makes me an Ollie-fluffer. OK.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Whaley with a coach can be a better option than Diarra purely on length and defensive ability. We will see of course, but all should be better just from a maturity factor but add in the new staff who seem pretty capable of coaching up this team should be much better than last year. They get a lot better with Jalens full buy in on both ends alone too. We've seen nothing from Sid but like I've said before despite Larrier making a few shots he was really horrid on the other end and most certainly gave up more points than he scored, it's an upgrade simply on team defense.

I think Diarra is a Jeff Adrien in waiting, who never got a chance. Everyone seems to think Sid Wilson is the second coming of...I don't know who...yet I believe Diarra had a similar ranking out of HS. Wilson is a little higher rated. Diarra is listed at 6'8" and 215. Same height as Whaley. I think he runs the floor very well, rebounds well and can be an offensive force around the rim if we get him the ball. Whaley is an instinctive shot blocker, but I didn't see much else.

 

[lange10]

I think Diarra is a Jeff Adrien in waiting, who never got a chance. Everyone seems to think Sid Wilson is the second coming of...I don't know who...yet I believe Diarra had a similar ranking out of HS. Wilson is a little higher rated. Diarra is listed at 6'8" and 215. Same height as Whaley. I think he runs the floor very well, rebounds well and can be an offensive force around the rim if we get him the ball. Whaley is an instinctive shot blocker, but I didn't see much else.

I am crazy excited to see how Diarra develops under Hurley. It's very easy to see the potential there. Diarra only had 8 games last year in which he played 15+ min. In those 8 games he averaged 5.6 ppg and 5.6 rpg. If he can learn to stay out of foul trouble I think he could average 6 ppg and 8 rpg with a few double-doubles sprinkled in.

 

[mauconnfan]

I think Diarra is a Jeff Adrien in waiting, who never got a chance. Everyone seems to think Sid Wilson is the second coming of...I don't know who...yet I believe Diarra had a similar ranking out of HS. Wilson is a little higher rated. Diarra is listed at 6'8" and 215. Same height as Whaley. I think he runs the floor very well, rebounds well and can be an offensive force around the rim if we get him the ball. Whaley is an instinctive shot blocker, but I didn't see much else.

Diarra is at least 2 inches smaller than Whaley and was clueless on D but seemed to get better. Diarra has the ability to still block shots after getting beat with his long arms which I like and he did finish strong at times. I see an Adrien-type but probably will never be as effective from 15 feet like Jeff became but who knows, I hope he does. I like him too just think the ceiling on Whaley is really high and he has tremendous feet and length. Hell we need 2 or 3 of them to get better and fast.

 

[auror]

It's not that uncommon. Boston College jumped nearly 100 spots last year with basically the same players. Auburn went from 82 to 23. Penn State went from 87 to 19. UCF was at 185 in 2016 and finished 68th in 2017.

Notably none of those examples that you cited that started as high as UConn was last year made the tournament. I never said it was impossible. It's within the possible range of outcomes. There is pedigree on the roster. But that's my point. We're starting from a REAL low point. We don't need an Auburn or Penn St-esque climb. We need double their improvement. We need Temple's improvement AND Auburn's improvement in the same season.

Additionally, you say it's not uncommon, but you're looking through the lens of survivorship bias. How many teams didn't climb at all? How many fell spots? How many only rose 20 or 40 spots? Dan Hurley took over Rhode Island in 2013 and they rose 30 spots from their very young 2012 position.

My point was that expecting a rise that drastic is not reasonable. Again, it could happen. We've got more positive indicators in our situation than most 180th ranked teams. But I'm sure as hell not going to consider it likely.

 

[UConnStats]

Diarra is at least 2 inches smaller than Whaley and was clueless on D but seemed to get better. Diarra has the ability to still block shots after getting beat with his long arms which I like and he did finish strong at times. I see an Adrien-type but probably will never be as effective from 15 feet like Jeff became but who knows, I hope he does. I like him too just think the ceiling on Whaley is really high and he has tremendous feet and length. Hell we need 2 or 3 of them to get better and fast.

I haven't heard Hurley mention Whaley once in any of his interviews, and Whaley is nothing like any of his bigs at URI. Carlton, Diarra, and Yakwe more resemble the type of bigs he uses. Williams and Cobb even do more so than Whaley. I like Whaley, but I don't see him getting much playing time this year. He's not strong enough to be the only big on the floor, and his jumper isn't going to allow him to play much of the 4 in Hurley's system either.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Diarra has a great motor and can get boards out of his area. Also, I love how quickly he goes up with ball off the catch. He plays with awesome aggression but needs a lot of polishing. Seems crazy he’s only going into his sophomore year.

 

[mauconnfan]

I haven't heard Hurley mention Whaley once in any of his interviews, and Whaley is nothing like any of his bigs at URI. Carlton, Diarra, and Yakwe more resemble the type of bigs he uses. Williams and Cobb even do more so than Whaley. I like Whaley, but I don't see him getting much playing time this year. He's not strong enough to be the only big on the floor, and his jumper isn't going to allow him to play much of the 4 in Hurley's system either.

We will see. He definitely lost any momentum he had earlier when he was the best of the bigs and that's strange how he lost impact. If he works hard on his offense over the summer around the basket, I think he will be a plyer for time. But I also see what you guys are talking about with Diarra, hopefully the understanding of the game catches up to the motor.

 

[ctchamps]

I'm saying things aren't much different now than they were last year at this time, when most of us expected - provided the health of Gilbert - that we would make the tournament or at least come close. Given the fact that your expectations for this season seem similar to mine, I'm not sure what the hang-up is. Obviously if Gilbert still isn't right, that changes things. I never expected Larrier to be that good last year, at least early on.

A significant number predicted last season was going to be a disaster because so many new players had to be integrated into the team. The season bore that out.

During the season the pro KO camp split with many defecting because in spite of their prediction of a bad season and therefore needing to give KO two more seasons they felt (and yes in spite of logical arguments emotions dictate conclusions) the play was so atrocious two seasons should not be accommodated.

A few stalwarts, labeled apologistas, tried to point out conditions that influenced last season other than KO. They never eliminated KO from bearing responsibility. They felt in the scheme of rational debate all factors need consideration. You were one of them. @mauconnfan was another. And of course the two of you were marginalized by those who insisted any explanations other than KO for last season was a defense of KO.

In spite of my personal reasons for believing it was time for a new direction I supported your efforts because I have a personal distaste with any group that uses bullying tactics.

With that long preamble, returning to this year’s team, I believe that people are discounting the role experience playing together has on outcomes. There are still two important components that may need time to integrate into the team to accomplish my prediction for next year, Alterique and Sid. But they will have the luxury not afforded last season given the easier early season schedule and the majority of players who have one season under their belts playing together.

 

[champs99and04]

Notably none of those examples that you cited that started as high as UConn was last year made the tournament. I never said it was impossible. It's within the possible range of outcomes. There is pedigree on the roster. But that's my point. We're starting from a REAL low point. We don't need an Auburn or Penn St-esque climb. We need double their improvement. We need Temple's improvement AND Auburn's improvement in the same season.

Additionally, you say it's not uncommon, but you're looking through the lens of survivorship bias. How many teams didn't climb at all? How many fell spots? How many only rose 20 or 40 spots? Dan Hurley took over Rhode Island in 2013 and they rose 30 spots from their very young 2012 position.

My point was that expecting a rise that drastic is not reasonable. Again, it could happen. We've got more positive indicators in our situation than most 180th ranked teams. But I'm sure as hell not going to consider it likely.

I suppose it depends which way you look at it. From a numbers standpoint, your perspective makes sense. A jump from 180 or so into the top 50 basically never happens. I haven't gone back and looked at every team over the last century, but my brief research definitely didn't return anything suggesting that's possible, much less realistic.

The flaw in that approach, from my end, is that it standardizes something that is no longer relevant in an attempt to make any future accomplishments look more impressive (I am not saying that was your motif, but I think it's natural to overstate the accomplishments of the guy that follows the guy everyone wanted out). It's like if I start talking about the world's population and finish with "but only a select few have had what it takes to join the 6,000 post club on the boneyard." Well, yeah. When you describe the exception from the viewpoint of the exception, it's going to look like you defied the odds because it's muting all the variables that don't align with that trajectory.

In terms of talent, this is a tournament roster. Last year we had NIT talent and bad coaches take that to where we were. Talent upgrade, plus experience upgrade, plus coaching upgrade is the formula that makes us an anomaly, IMO. That's not to say I'll be turning cars over if we don't make it, but we should be a team that plays good basketball. Talent regresses to the mean in the end more than anything else. I can't see Jalen Adams finishing his career with one tournament appearance. I just can't.