Current Talent and Incoming Talent

[jibsey]

Our problems can be fixed with some decent bigs, everyone will be better.

 

[MDHuskFan]

Get some good bigs in & it should even potentially boost production from our current bigs. Iron sharpens iron, unfortunately right now we’re rubbing cotton balls together this season

 

[olehead]

Maybe a bit of both - we had a run of single digit team recruiting years but normally landed in the 15-35 range. In addition to those above, Louisville, Arizona, Texas, Mich St, Syracuse, etc were consistently ahead of us. Okafor was high 90's - as was Kemba and Shabazz. Yet, we're the one with 4 championships - because they stayed and developed for 3+ years.

Kemba was a McD All Am.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

Our problems can be fixed with some decent bigs, everyone will be better.

This is simplistic. In the second half on Wednesday we got outplayed at every spot on the floor, particularly noticeable at the guard spot, by Rideau and Collins.

 

[UofCT]

Thanks for the heads up. I'll rethink trying to be helpful to you next time.

Who are you? This is a forum. Stay in your lane

 

[traitor71]

This is pretty close to a total rebuild and talent is desperately needed. That is clear just from the eye test. I know it gets progressively harder to deal with as bad years string together, but all you can really do is see what Hurley does. Losses like the one to South Florida are just part of it all, and really shouldn't be that surprising as when you aren't a good team, you can lose to anyone.

Hurley is clearly more engaged than KO was and it is hard to believe that he won't be fielding good teams in a couple of years.

 

[spudzj6]

Our problems can be fixed with some decent bigs, everyone will be better.

When I first read this, I thought it said our problems can be fixed with decent drugs. Laughed at first, then realized it may be the only answer to being able to watch this team the rest of the year.

 

[tentoes4rings]

Adams will be fine long-term. If you wanted instant-impact freshmen from Day 1, you're spoiled.

This sounds a lot like your the program couldn’t do better than Ollie rhetoric Stain. This program was used to excellence and recruits who either performed at a high level their first year or showed exciting promise. Being okay with no impact from freshmen is a loser mentality.

 

[methodology]

This sounds a lot like your the program couldn’t do better than Ollie rhetoric Stain. This program was used to excellence and recruits who either performed at a high level their first year or showed exciting promise. Being okay with no impact from freshmen is a loser mentality.

Completely false. There are plenty of key contributors who were non factors their freshman year over the past 25 years

 

[polycom]

This sounds a lot like your the program couldn’t do better than Ollie rhetoric Stain. This program was used to excellence and recruits who either performed at a high level their first year or showed exciting promise. Being okay with no impact from freshmen is a loser mentality.

This is revisionist history.

 

[auror]

KenPom and others have done work and found that on average non-top 30 freshman are often not important to team success in their first year. That's the expected cutoff for consistently positively affecting winning. So that's not just showing flashes, but being an important net positive contributor.

Always exceptions, etc. But take Akinjo. He's a low top 100 recruit, thrust into a big role at Georgetown. It seems like he's blossoming as a freshman, but he's got a 27% turnover rate and despite better shooting of late he's shooting 42% on 2s so he has a sub 100 ORTG.

Akok and Kofi are on the fringe of top 30, and would probably be good contributors with a neutral overall impact as freshmen. Precious would likely swing the needle a good deal.

 

[yukonfan4]

Always exceptions, etc.

we depend on those non-top 30 freshmen exceptions:

boatright- #55
shabazz- #82
jeremy lamb- #86
brimah- #241
giffey- unranked

all these guys played big roles their first year. i chalk that up to good recruiting beyond the ranking lists and great coaching. i'm not arguing about the stats you cite- i can't- i'm just saying we've had more success than the average program in getting the most out of guys early on. hopefully hurley can continue that practice

 

[auror]

we depend on those non-top 30 freshmen exceptions:

boatright- #55
shabazz- #82
jeremy lamb- #86
brimah- #241
giffey- unranked

all these guys played big roles their first year. i chalk that up to good recruiting beyond the ranking lists and great coaching

They've definitely helped, but not something we should EXPECT. For every 1 that hits, there will be multiple that are net negatives.

As it is, Lamb was the genuine exception. He was awesome. Brimah was really good as well, although in limited minutes. Shabazz was a neutral contributor as a freshman, maybe slightly positive with defense factored in. Boatright would probably count as a net positive as well. Giffey was a negative, though.

 

[tentoes4rings]

Completely false. There are plenty of key contributors who were non factors their freshman year over the past 25 years

No. I’m not saying it happened with all of the top guys. There were plenty of guys like Hilton and Thabeet who went from non contributors to stars their final years but to say we’re spoiled because we expect a freshman to make an impact is ridiculous. Top programs have some freshmen who make a big impact, we’ll need some of that too to get back to what we were accustomed to.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Okafor was high 90's - as was Kemba and Shabazz. .

This post has to win for most glaring factual inaccuracy of the season so far.

 

[polycom]

No. I’m not saying it happened with all of the top guys. There were plenty of guys like Hilton and Thabeet who went from non contributors to stars their final years but to say we’re spoiled because we expect a freshman to make an impact is ridiculous. Top programs have some freshmen who make a big impact, we’ll need some of that too to get back to what we were accustomed to.

Before doing the research... I didn't agree with you but honestly the data says you're more correct than not correct.

Freshman year numbers...
Ray Allen - 12ppg on 51%
Rudy Gay - 11ppg on 46%
Ben Gordon - 12ppg on 43%
Kemba Walker 9ppg on 47%
Shabazz Napier 7ppg on 37%
Rip Hamilton 15 ppg on 38%
Emeka - 8 ppg and 6 boards
Ryan Boatright 10ppg on 42%
Jeremy Lamb - 10ppg on 48%

 

[tzznandrew]

Before doing the research... I didn't agree with you but honestly the data says you're more correct than not correct.

Freshman year numbers...
Ray Allen - 12ppg on 51%
Rudy Gay - 11ppg on 46%
Ben Gordon - 12ppg on 43%
Kemba Walker 9ppg on 47%
Shabazz Napier 7ppg on 37%
Rip Hamilton 15 ppg on 38%
Emeka - 8 ppg and 6 boards
Ryan Boatright 10ppg on 42%
Jeremy Lamb - 10ppg on 48%

Of that list, though, Allen, Gay, Gordon, Walker, and Hamilton were all McAAs or Top 30, so they don't disprove Auror's point.

Emeka and Lamb both are clearly the exceptions auror was talking about.

Bazz and Boat...well you can tell from the shooting percentages they struggled, and if you gave Adams the amount of time these guys got (Adams is the 5th guard, behind Gilbert, Jalen, CV, and Tarin rather than the 3rd in each of their cases) he might put up something like those numbers with something like their efficiency. Tarin puts up 10ppg as our 4th guard.

Also consider he's behind two Top 30 prospects (Adams and Gilbert) who are 4 and 3 years out of high school, a grad senior and a junior. Where's he seeing the floor this year?

It's a guard-rich team; it's no surprise that a freshman guard doesn't get a ton of burn.

 

[CL82]

I do not give Ollie any credit for his success with Calhoun's guys

I do. His first two years first keeping the team together and second motivating and driving them to a natty, was excellent coaching in my opinion. Think about the guys he coached against in 2014. It was impressive. That said, the wheels fell off the bus and he had to go.

 

[polycom]

Of that list, though, Allen, Gay, Gordon, Walker, and Hamilton were all McAAs or Top 30, so they don't disprove Auror's point.

Emeka and Lamb both are clearly the exceptions auror was talking about.

Bazz and Boat...well you can tell from the shooting percentages they struggled, and if you gave Adams the amount of time these guys got (Adams is the 5th guard, behind Gilbert, Jalen, CV, and Tarin rather than the 3rd in each of their cases) he might put up something like those numbers with something like their efficiency. Tarin puts up 10ppg as our 4th guard.

Also consider he's behind two Top 30 prospects (Adams and Gilbert) who are 4 and 3 years out of high school, a grad senior and a junior. Where's he seeing the floor this year?

It's a guard-rich team; it's no surprise that a freshman guard doesn't get a ton of burn.

Fair point I didn't read the original aurors's post just the post I quoted.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't know what team you guys watched for the last 30 years, but I recall only a few true impact freshmen. KEA and Rudy stand out, probably Caron too. I'm not saying several others didn't play important roles, but that was usually due to lack of experienced depth in front of them.

Calhoun never, ever recruited anything like Calipari and Coach K do now, rolling out whole teams of 5 stars top 15 guys and hitting refresh the next year. What he did was find guys who were better than their ranking and who fit what he wanted to do. That is exactly the model Hurley is following. It's also what Mark Few and most coaches with consistent success do. Hell, even Self brings in 3 star kids at KU. Lagerald Vick was a 3 star and so was Frank Mason.

Brendan Adams will be a hell of a basketball player by Junior year. You can count on it. The new guys coming in are all quality players, with both guards being better than their rankings suggest, and Akok being a borderline 5 star (as is Kofi if we get him). The future looks bright.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Completely false. There are plenty of key contributors who were non factors their freshman year over the past 25 years

And plenty who were key players as freshmen. To say that you should never expect a freshman to contribute from Day 1 ignores not only the trend in college basketball at all levels across the country, but the history of this very program.

 

[crazyUCfan23]

Yeah I kind of discussed this in another thread, but the reality is this year was to kind of hope we could keep the players we had here, and replace the exits with real, bonafide talent.

Right now we have 2-3 guys who have the talent levels to either start or make a real impact over four years. The rest are kind of one tool guys we need more than one tool from and reality is we're just not gonna get that from them. and entire half of the roster are kind of lucky to have scholarships. It's hard to really even see growth with that.

Next year the freshman/inexperienced guys we have this year will probably be real contributers and be more starter-ish. And we'll have another wave of guys as talented, maybe a little more talented who instead of being leaned on all the time - will come off the bench and rotate through more like they should. And we'll be able to better leverage some one-tool guys. Bad players who see the court this year, won't next year. But in that mix, you'll see major bumps and likely the end result is a record similar to this year's squad, but with actual growth from your key guys.

It's that next year where you've got bonafide talented starters and then ANOTHER good wave of talent to fill out your bench with some one tool guys who really should be pretty good. Then - well you'll see a tournament caliber team.

I'm going to be really interested in this year's roster turnover. It'll be interested to see if Cobb cooks off. I don't think Whaley has a home here. Those are two spots that open up and who knows - maybe a late commit but more likely a transfer that can be used to fill a hole. But they could be really important slots to fit that you MIGHT be able to upgrade a bit. I think that's where you have a chance to add depth.

cobb is a senior, so he won't be here next year.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

This post has to win for most glaring factual inaccuracy of the season so far.

Glad I could help. I'm in the beer biz...sober thought isn't always in the cards.

 

[methodology]

And plenty who were key players as freshmen. To say that you should never expect a freshman to contribute from Day 1 ignores not only the trend in college basketball at all levels across the country, but the history of this very program.

I didn't say that no freshman should ever be expected to be a contributor. Tentoes was responding to a post about Brendan Adams and it was off base what he was saying.

 

[LambChops]

B. Adams brings size and has a decent 3. He seems like he genuinely cares and wants to win. Something that I can't say for many on this team.

Best Adams on the team IMO