Crunch time minutes

[Vowelguy]

What's interesting to me are the minutes allocated in the premium games. More than starting, more than regular season minutes, this gives the true picture of how Geno evaluates the players.

In last year's 7 closest games (Tenn, Ark, SC, Marq, Iowa, Bay, Ariz), these were the minutes:
PB 38 CW 36 EW 35 ON 28 AE 26
NM 26* AG 16 Rest 5
(Nika was out/injured for 3 games, counting those at 0 would put her avg at 15. * OT games were normalized to a 40-minute scale.)

So thinking of what likely will be the top 5 games of the year (SC, Ore, Lou, Atlantis Game 3, Tenn), here is my guess:

PB 37 (-1 vs 2021)
CW 30 (-6)
AE 26 (0)
EW 25 (-10)
ON 23 (-5)
21
NM 20 (-6/+5)
DJ 14
Rest 4 (-17)

 

[Boreifs]

A two-time all Big 10 player is going to average 14 minutes in big games?! Oh my.

 

[hoophuskee]

What's interesting to me are the minutes allocated in the premium games. More than starting, more than regular season minutes, this gives the true picture of how Geno evaluates the players.

In last year's 7 closest games (Tenn, Ark, SC, Marq, Iowa, Bay, Ariz), these were the minutes:
PB 38 CW 36 EW 35 ON 28 AE 26
NM 26* AG 16 Rest 5
(Nika was out/injured for 3 games, counting those at 0 would put her avg at 15. * OT games were normalized to a 40-minute scale.)

So thinking of what likely will be the top 5 games of the year (SC, Ore, Lou, Atlantis Game 3, Tenn), here is my guess:

PB 37 (-1 vs 2021)
CW 30 (-6)
AE 26 (0)
EW 25 (-10)
ON 23 (-5)
21
NM 20 (-6/+5)
DJ 14
Rest 4 (-17)

Nika was hurt during the NCAA's which clearly affected her play, and as a result also allowed other players to accumulate minutes all because she was hurt.

More games in terms of performance like in last two in NCAA from Liv in which she scored a combined 4 points on 1-10 shooting while shooting 2-6 from the FT line will probably result in a pretty decent decline of said minutes.

 

[fireford]

I appreciate the efforts of someone who comes up with such interesting thoughts at 1:28 AM EST. There are lots of variables that may go into this of course (injuries, fouls, Geno's doghouse, etc.). Even that all aside I'm a little puzzled to see the initials "CD" not even on the board. From what we've been reading about how impressed Geno has been with her, I'd expect her to be an integral part of our rotation even in the big games that you mentioned. Even if not a lot, enough to get her out of the "rest" category.

 

[SVCBeercats]

You just enlarged the chip on Caroline's shoulder. Both Dorka and Caroline will have many more minutes. Fudd will have fewer minutes.

What's interesting to me are the minutes allocated in the premium games. More than starting, more than regular season minutes, this gives the true picture of how Geno evaluates the players.

In last year's 7 closest games (Tenn, Ark, SC, Marq, Iowa, Bay, Ariz), these were the minutes:
PB 38 CW 36 EW 35 ON 28 AE 26
NM 26* AG 16 Rest 5
(Nika was out/injured for 3 games, counting those at 0 would put her avg at 15. * OT games were normalized to a 40-minute scale.)

So thinking of what likely will be the top 5 games of the year (SC, Ore, Lou, Atlantis Game 3, Tenn), here is my guess:

PB 37 (-1 vs 2021)
CW 30 (-6)
AE 26 (0)
EW 25 (-10)
ON 23 (-5)
21
NM 20 (-6/+5)
DJ 14
Rest 4 (-17)

 

[Kaizen]

It is very difficult to put the mins for the players with so many good talent players. I think even Geno will have a tough time to decide who are the starters now.

 

[hoophuskee]

I appreciate the efforts of someone who comes up with such interesting thoughts at 1:28 AM EST. There are lots of variables that may go into this of course (injuries, fouls, Geno's doghouse, etc.). Even that all aside I'm a little puzzled to see the initials "CD" not even on the board. From what we've been reading about how impressed Geno has been with her, I'd expect her to be an integral part of our rotation even in the big games that you mentioned. Even if not a lot, enough to get her out of the "rest" category.

I don't think initial observations during the summer mean that much - and in addition I think he'd also say amazing things about Paige, CWill, Azzi (which he did), Evina and Nika if he were to watch them over the summer in the same manner he is watching CD.

Then it comes down to who is best and for 3 positions (pg, sg and sf), why would you need to give 6 players crunch time minutes instead of 5 when the coach has shown he generally uses a short bench anyways (as does every coach when they are stacked with a/a caliber/wnba caliber types)? Four of these players are all-american caliber/ (and/or) wnba caliber. And we know he thinks Nika is awesome, too don't we? It's not like with these 5 (if healthy), they are going to wear down if they were to share 3 positions in some manner during crunch time.

 

[CL82]

You really need someone to take charge and lead decisively in crunch time. Someone to take charge and lead the troops. A captain, if you will. Any volunteers?

 

[jdubct]

It is very difficult to put the mins for the players with so many good talent players. I think even Geno will have a tough time to decide who are the starters now.

Agree. He'll have a much easier time selecting players situationally from a 8 or 9 person rotation.

 

[chrissaran]

You just enlarged the chip on Caroline's shoulder. Both Dorka and Caroline will have many more minutes. Fudd will have fewer minutes.

Azzi won't have fewer minutes. You are right; however, Dorka and Caroline will have more minutes.

 

[fireford]

I don't think initial observations during the summer mean that much - and in addition I think he'd also say amazing things about Paige, CWill, Azzi (which he did), Evina and Nika if he were to watch them over the summer in the same manner he is watching CD.

Then it comes down to who is best and for 3 positions (pg, sg and sf), why would you need to give 6 players crunch time minutes instead of 5 when the coach has shown he generally uses a short bench anyways (as does every coach when they are stacked with a/a caliber/wnba caliber types)? Four of these players are all-american caliber/ (and/or) wnba caliber. And we know he thinks Nika is awesome, too don't we? It's not like with these 5 (if healthy), they are going to wear down if they were to share 3 positions in some manner during crunch time.

Thank you for your reply and while you bring up some fair points I'm still not convinced that CD won't be good for at least 10 minutes during crunch time games if she's everything she's advertised to be (I tend to think she will be). While all the players you mentioned bring a great skill set to the table, last year the team had their share of games where everyone not named Bueckers was struggling to hit shots from the outside (and even Paige had her moments where they weren't falling). This year she gets some help from Fudd in that category but Fudd's still a freshman and still recovering from some things so we have to factor in some unknowns as far as she goes.

If the team is not shooting well collectively from the outside and/or those we rely on to hit shots from the outside are in foul trouble or their physical conditions requires a breather, who is Geno going to go with first off the bench to launch some threes? They didn't really have the option last year to get threes off the bench (Makurat was hurt most of the season), which is a big reason why he relied more on the starters to carry the load even when the shots weren't falling. Now that Geno has that weapon off the bench to utilize I foresee him using it at least 10+ minutes a game (even in big games where the bench is shorter).

 

[huskyd]

It is very difficult to put the mins for the players with so many good talent players. I think even Geno will have a tough time to decide who are the starters now.

No prob. Ask the BYers, who seem to have nothing better to do than speculate on the same topic from every possible angle. The good news is that time is passing, and we are drawing nearer to reality: the season.

 

[Vowelguy]

Fine to argue that player X will play more, but still only 200 minutes in a game. Which player Y is going to play less?

 

[huskeynut]

All this will shake out when practices start. Safe to say Paige will get the minutes needed to secure a win. Christyn will get plenty of minutes. I still say Nika starts at the point. E will get hers, no doubt. As will Aaliyah.

Liv and Dorka are going to be an interesting situation. I think Dorka is way to good to have only 14 minutes in big games.

Azzi will get plenty of minutes.

The reality is none of us really know what will happen. Geno has a plan but as we have seen way too many times, injuries can really mess up the works. And we could be in for some pleasant surprises as the season unfolds.

 

[MooseJaw]

Fine to argue that player X will play more, but still only 200 minutes in a game. Which player Y is going to play less?

Nika, jump on me if y'all want, I can take it. Just remember last season she was a rollercoaster player, as related on the BY by many posters and her contributions. A rocky start-many here wondered why she was even on the team. She couldn't guard anyone, she couldn't hit the backboard. Injury? yes. Then she played better but still couldn't find the rim, then in one game it seems she scored half her season total points in a game. Then great defense, with more assists, all doubters fell in love with Nika. End of season again hampered with injury.
Will we get a better Nika this season? I bet we do, however I don't know for sure and none of us do. What we all know is that we have an amazing class coming in, we believe the best in the nation. What we don't know is how fast and far they progress. Who will have injuries, who may be in the dog house. What we hope, Azzi is as expected, Caroline Ducharme live up to the hype just to mention 2 of the freshmen. Geno will play those he feels have the best chance of winning. I'm glad I don't know the answer it will be a lot more fun watching how the players sort things out, and how the coach puts the puzzle pieces together.
Short answer to the original question, all players minutes will be lower, my guess Nika.

 

[EricLA]

It's all speculation at this point. If no one else posts it, I will revisit and post a new poll of starters for this coming season. Probably in early October before any exhibition games start.

NOT trying to be confrontational, but Nika played the end of the season injured. That is what stands out most in people's memory. While Paige was the "face" of the team in crunch time (remember the end of the SC game when it seemed NO ONE wanted the ball in their hands, it ended up in Paige's hands several times, and she delivered), IMHO Nika was the engine that set the tone and drove the bus. I sometimes feel like many people underestimate Nika and don't give her the credit IMHO she deserves...

Her intensity was matched by no one on the team, and she turned into a tenacious defender, competent shooter, and all around good/solid PG. As a freshman on a NC caliber team. Not only that, assuming she is healthy, she decided to forego going back to Croatia to play with her national team, instead opting to stay in Storrs to (hopefully) work on her game.

Add those things all up including her incredible competitiveness, and I don't see Geno "taking her out in favor of Azzi". The minutes Azzi gets IMHO will come if others are injured, tweaked, or will be spread across the board coming from Paige, Christyn, and Evina (and Nika as well, but not JUST Nika). IMHO.

My point is, some seem to relegate Nika to an "also-ran" position, and I just don't believe she is. She's in integral part of the energy, aggressiveness, tenacity and attitude that this team lacks (meaning too many "nice guys"). Not saying this team won't be "tough", but Nika is the toughest of them all.

I will be fascinated to see how Geno manages the minutes this season. I know @Vowelguy was talking about MPG in BIG games, not averages for the season. I really believe it will come down to matchups. Against a team like SC with numerous bigs to throw at us, the MPG will look different than against a team like, say, Arizona - with much smaller players who are athletic and quick, or maybe a team like ND, which may rely heavily on 3 point shooting.

BTW I mentioned those last 2 teams because I'm more familiar with them. Not sure what Oregon or L'ville will look like this season, or who will get a majority of minutes for them.

 

[Dogstar]

What's interesting to me are the minutes allocated in the premium games. More than starting, more than regular season minutes, this gives the true picture of how Geno evaluates the players.

In last year's 7 closest games (Tenn, Ark, SC, Marq, Iowa, Bay, Ariz), these were the minutes:
PB 38 CW 36 EW 35 ON 28 AE 26
NM 26* AG 16 Rest 5
(Nika was out/injured for 3 games, counting those at 0 would put her avg at 15. * OT games were normalized to a 40-minute scale.)

So thinking of what likely will be the top 5 games of the year (SC, Ore, Lou, Atlantis Game 3, Tenn), here is my guess:

PB 37 (-1 vs 2021)
CW 30 (-6)
AE 26 (0)
EW 25 (-10)
ON 23 (-5)
21
NM 20 (-6/+5)
DJ 14
Rest 4 (-17)

I thk CD is gonna surprise a lot of people and pilfer some important mins. Jmo

 

[hoophuskee]

Thank you for your reply and while you bring up some fair points I'm still not convinced that CD won't be good for at least 10 minutes during crunch time games if she's everything she's advertised to be (I tend to think she will be). While all the players you mentioned bring a great skill set to the table, last year the team had their share of games where everyone not named Bueckers was struggling to hit shots from the outside (and even Paige had her moments where they weren't falling). This year she gets some help from Fudd in that category but Fudd's still a freshman and still recovering from some things so we have to factor in some unknowns as far as she goes.

If the team is not shooting well collectively from the outside and/or those we rely on to hit shots from the outside are in foul trouble or their physical conditions requires a breather, who is Geno going to go with first off the bench to launch some threes? They didn't really have the option last year to get threes off the bench (Makurat was hurt most of the season), which is a big reason why he relied more on the starters to carry the load even when the shots weren't falling. Now that Geno has that weapon off the bench to utilize I foresee him using it at least 10+ minutes a game (even in big games where the bench is shorter).

Okay – I can see what you're saying and it is definitely possible with what you're saying but I'm skeptical other than an unusual circumstance for it to happen.

 

[Vowelguy]

1) Of course no one knows what will happen. Isnt the point of a message board (esp in the off season) to speculate?
2) I do hope Caroline is great, as I think we could really use another frosh to step up. But the comments I saw on this board were mixed -- some great, some lukewarm -- so I wasn't sure how much to expect from her right away.
3) That said, Geno giving 9 players significant minutes in a big game would be very unusual. Which brings us back to the question of who will play less?

Key question: how many minutes does the 4-guard lineup get & how many where two of ON/AE/DJ are in the game at the same time. My initial guess is a 17/23 split.

 

[Happydad745]

Too hard to call without seeing how the freshmen and DJ will develop at UConn early in the season.

 

[oldhusky]

What's interesting to me are the minutes allocated in the premium games. More than starting, more than regular season minutes, this gives the true picture of how Geno evaluates the players.

In last year's 7 closest games (Tenn, Ark, SC, Marq, Iowa, Bay, Ariz), these were the minutes:
PB 38 CW 36 EW 35 ON 28 AE 26
NM 26* AG 16 Rest 5
(Nika was out/injured for 3 games, counting those at 0 would put her avg at 15. * OT games were normalized to a 40-minute scale.)

So thinking of what likely will be the top 5 games of the year (SC, Ore, Lou, Atlantis Game 3, Tenn), here is my guess:

PB 37 (-1 vs 2021)
CW 30 (-6)
AE 26 (0)
EW 25 (-10)
ON 23 (-5)
21
NM 20 (-6/+5)
DJ 14
Rest 4 (-17)

I think this is a pretty good breakdown if you assume a largely 8 player rotation (in big games), and you assume we play small ball for much of the time with a wing at the 4. If you think of the players by position I believe you are allocating 37 minutes to C's between Liv and Dorka, and only 26 to PF's with just AE and no AG. On the other hand guards and wings are given 133 minutes for three positions.

I believe we have 6 players who could reasonably be considered above average bigs. Liv and Dorka at C and Aaliyah and Aubrey at PF are already proven very good players. Mir did very well in limited minutes and actually had PER numbers (player efficiency rating) comparable to CW and EW and Aubrey had a substantially better PER. By the way using that stat, Aaliyah, Aubrey, Liv and Dorka were all substantially better than CW and EW, who both were better than Nika. Then Amari as a high recruit should be an above average C from the start, so the obvious question is why small ball? We are probably three deep at C and PF with exceptional primary backups at both positions. Personally I think we have as much talent at the 4/5 as we do at 2/3, but obviously we are loaded everywhere.

If you re-figure with Aubrey getting the backup PF minutes, say 14, and a 9 player rotation, then presumably those 14 minutes come at the expense of some combination of Christyn, Evina, Azzi or Nika. I think Aubrey being in the rotation is more probable than not, and 9 being the most likely big game rotation. It could be less like your projection, and at the other extreme I would not be shocked if Geno found a few minutes for CD in a 10 player rotation, but if that happened she would have to earn her minutes probably at the expense of the established wings or the number 1 recruit which is a very high hurdle to cross but perhaps possible.

I understand numbers aren't everything, style and fit matter and so forth

 

[hoophuskee]

I believe we have 6 players who could reasonably be considered above average bigs. Liv and Dorka at C and Aaliyah and Aubrey at PF are already proven very good players. Mir did very well in limited minutes and actually had PER numbers (player efficiency rating) comparable to CW and EW and Aubrey had a substantially better PER. By the way using that stat, Aaliyah, Aubrey, Liv and Dorka were all substantially better than CW and EW, who both were better than Nika. Then Amari as a high recruit should be an above average C from the start, so the obvious question is why small ball?



I understand numbers aren't everything, style and fit matter and so forth

I agree with your statement in bold.

As a result, the stat of PER is doesn't mean that much because it's flawed.
Anyone interested in reading - they can google and read some articles such as "Problems with PER in the NBA." Or 'The Definitive PER Criticism." This article makes mention of PER being particularly flawed with a big bias toward big players. The article further explains the bias toward bigs.

Just take a look at the 2019 WNBA season pre-COVID. According to stats from basketball-reference - the top 10 in PER that season 9 or maybe all 10 were big players. Tianna Hawkins is number 8 - and if she is also a PF / center then it's 10 for 10-- all bigs. Number 2 in the WNBA was Washington Player Emma Meesseman. Matter of fact Washington had all 3 of Elena Delle Donne (1), Emma Meesseman (2), and Tianna Hawkins as top 10 (8) in PER.

I don't follow the WNBA a lot-- so I'm asking was Emma 2nd best? What about Tianna as 8? IMO PER is a bias stat.

 

[Waquoit]

The game is changing faster than ever. Whoever is hitting 3's is going to play.

 

[oldhusky]

I agree with your statement in bold.

As a result, the stat of PER is doesn't mean that much because it's flawed.
Anyone interested in reading - they can google and read some articles such as "Problems with PER in the NBA." Or 'The Definitive PER Criticism." This article makes mention of PER being particularly flawed with a big bias toward big players. The article further explains the bias toward bigs.

Just take a look at the 2019 WNBA season pre-COVID. According to stats from basketball-reference - the top 10 in PER that season 9 or maybe all 10 were big players. Tianna Hawkins is number 8 - and if she is also a PF / center then it's 10 for 10-- all bigs. Number 2 in the WNBA was Washington Player Emma Meesseman. Matter of fact Washington had all 3 of Elena Delle Donne (1), Emma Meesseman (2), and Tianna Hawkins as top 10 (8) in PER.

I don't follow the WNBA a lot-- so I'm asking was Emma 2nd best? What about Tianna as 8? IMO PER is a bias stat.

I have sensed a bias towards bigs in the PER stats just by casual observation, but was unaware of your article references that I presume try to quantify it somewhat. I will be interested in looking at those. The bias would need to be a very big one to explain some differences which are also big. I don't have those numbers right in front of me, but what I recall is that for a stat that is supposed to tract to average being 15, Aubrey was around 26 and Evina and Christyn were near 20.

I am not necessarily saying that Aubrey is better than either but believe the argument that she may make as big a contribution per minute is at least debatable. Then I believe all three players would perform best at their natural position. Taking the counter position first, I think Aubrey would be considerably less effective as a 3. By the same token, while I think Evina and Christyn can easily play 2/3, both are somewhat miscast and less effective as a 4. If they were not asked to play out of position their production per minute could be greater.

Obviously we are loaded everywhere, and whether you look at the wings or bigs, minutes for some very good players are going to be limited. I think we have the depth to play people mostly at their best positions, I agree that there is a big bias in the PER stats before looking at your articles, which I will read, but suspect I will still use the stats, but try to do so putting that bias in perspective.

 

[Vowelguy]

I and you assume we play small ball for much of the time with a wing at the 4.

See post above. I have ON AE DJ playing 63 minutes, which means 23 at the 4 and 17 mins for a wing.

Mir did very well in limited minutes and

Mir's problem is that she's 5'11 trying to play PF, but without the guard skills of EW or CW. She needs to have a Gabby transformation to become an impact player.

actually had PER numbers (player efficiency rating) comparable to CW and EW and Aubrey had a substantially better PER. By the way using that stat, Aaliyah, Aubrey, Liv and Dorka were all substantially better than CW and EW, who both were better than Nika.

I use numbers/stats all day for my job so believe me I'm a numbers guy. But one needs to be careful with extrapolations from stats.

In baseball, pitcher A may have a 1.0 ERA and pitcher B a 3.0 ERA. Does that mean you should start pitcher A? Oh did I mention that pitcher A is a relief pitcher?

Playing time is not exogenous. If you want to believe AG is more valuable than CW and EW, you're welcome to it. Geno clearly does not agree.

If you re-figure with Aubrey getting the backup PF minutes, say 14, and a 9 player rotation, then presumably those 14 minutes come at the expense of some combination of Christyn, Evina, Azzi or Nika. I think Aubrey being in the rotation is more probable than not, and 9 being the most likely big game rotation.

If AG is getting 14 mins in big games, then either she's improved a bunch or Azzi & DJ are not as good out of the box as we hoped.