Crunch time minutes

[Zanzman]

See post above. I have ON AE DJ playing 63 minutes, which means 23 at the 4 and 17 mins for a wing.

Mir's problem is that she's 5'11 trying to play PF, but without the guard skills of EW or CW. She needs to have a Gabby transformation to become an impact player.

I use numbers/stats all day for my job so believe me I'm a numbers guy. But one needs to be careful with extrapolations from stats.

In baseball, pitcher A may have a 1.0 ERA and pitcher B a 3.0 ERA. Does that mean you should start pitcher A? Oh did I mention that pitcher A is a relief pitcher?

Playing time is not exogenous. If you want to believe AG is more valuable than CW and EW, you're welcome to it. Geno clearly does not agree.


If AG is getting 14 mins in big games, then either she's improved a bunch or Azzi & DJ are not as good out of the box as we hoped.

Interesting vowel guy is actually a numbers guy mmmmmm

 

[hoophuskee]

I have sensed a bias towards bigs in the PER stats just by casual observation, but was unaware of your article references that I presume try to quantify it somewhat. I will be interested in looking at those. The bias would need to be a very big one to explain some differences which are also big. I don't have those numbers right in front of me, but what I recall is that for a stat that is supposed to tract to average being 15, Aubrey was around 26 and Evina and Christyn were near 20.

I am not necessarily saying that Aubrey is better than either but believe the argument that she may make as big a contribution per minute is at least debatable. Then I believe all three players would perform best at their natural position. Taking the counter position first, I think Aubrey would be considerably less effective as a 3. By the same token, while I think Evina and Christyn can easily play 2/3, both are somewhat miscast and less effective as a 4. If they were not asked to play out of position their production per minute could be greater.

Obviously we are loaded everywhere, and whether you look at the wings or bigs, minutes for some very good players are going to be limited. I think we have the depth to play people mostly at their best positions, I agree that there is a big bias in the PER stats before looking at your articles, which I will read, but suspect I will still use the stats, but try to do so putting that bias in perspective.

For me- I think comparing a bench low post player vs a regular starter primarily a perimeter player by using a stat that heavily favors low post players is not the correct comparison to use for this PER stat.

Overall- looking at how the stat seems to favor Aubrey last year over CWill and Evina, imo shows a major flaw in the stat if used as a comparison in this manner. Just as in 2019 that the WNBA top 10 PER stats show either 9 or 10 or all 10 of the best players as tops in the league were low post players. Also digging into the stats it shows that only once in Sue Bird’s entire WNBA career was she in the top 10 in PER and that was 2004 in which she was number 10 only.

To further that- bench player in NBA Enes Kanter’s top 3 PER years are superior to Larry Bird’s 1st 3 years in NBA in which he was All-NBA 1st team.

With all this data—for me it seems like PER can’t be used when comparing bench players vs starters and/or low post players vs perimeter players. Too many other factors.

 

[HopJim]

It's all speculation at this point. If no one else posts it, I will revisit and post a new poll of starters for this coming season. Probably in early October before any exhibition games start.

NOT trying to be confrontational, but Nika played the end of the season injured. That is what stands out most in people's memory. While Paige was the "face" of the team in crunch time (remember the end of the SC game when it seemed NO ONE wanted the ball in their hands, it ended up in Paige's hands several times, and she delivered), IMHO Nika was the engine that set the tone and drove the bus. I sometimes feel like many people underestimate Nika and don't give her the credit IMHO she deserves...

Her intensity was matched by no one on the team, and she turned into a tenacious defender, competent shooter, and all around good/solid PG. As a freshman on a NC caliber team. Not only that, assuming she is healthy, she decided to forego going back to Croatia to play with her national team, instead opting to stay in Storrs to (hopefully) work on her game.

Add those things all up including her incredible competitiveness, and I don't see Geno "taking her out in favor of Azzi". The minutes Azzi gets IMHO will come if others are injured, tweaked, or will be spread across the board coming from Paige, Christyn, and Evina (and Nika as well, but not JUST Nika). IMHO.

My point is, some seem to relegate Nika to an "also-ran" position, and I just don't believe she is. She's in integral part of the energy, aggressiveness, tenacity and attitude that this team lacks (meaning too many "nice guys"). Not saying this team won't be "tough", but Nika is the toughest of them all.

I will be fascinated to see how Geno manages the minutes this season. I know @Vowelguy was talking about MPG in BIG games, not averages for the season. I really believe it will come down to matchups. Against a team like SC with numerous bigs to throw at us, the MPG will look different than against a team like, say, Arizona - with much smaller players who are athletic and quick, or maybe a team like ND, which may rely heavily on 3 point shooting.

BTW I mentioned those last 2 teams because I'm more familiar with them. Not sure what Oregon or L'ville will look like this season, or who will get a majority of minutes for them.

Nika's skills are more intangible than many on the team. Her intensity is hard to replicate and often causes the players around her to play better. That being said, without trying to generate "click bait," while she is one of the best at defending lanes/zones on the court, she never proved at any time during the year that she is a strong one on one guard defender. Fast guards usually blew by her. While she did a great job improving her outside shot, her overall offense (driving, passing, generating her own offense) was average. Most years, Nika would be a solid starter but to win the title UConn likley needs exceptional performance on offense and defense. With so much talent on this team, by 2nd half of season, when Geno gets the team ready for playoffs, Nika's minutes will likely decline. Not meant as a slight on her but a comment on what UConn needs to win the overall championship and the depth of talent on this year's team.

 

[Cornell Lt]

We'll know the players rotation and players usage (minutes) sometime in early December

 

[EdSaid]

Forget about minutes.

Two minutes left in a tie game. Who is on the floor:
PB

CW
AW
DJ
AE (First off the bench)

 

[D J B]

Forget about minutes.

Two minutes left in a tie game. Who is on the floor:
PB

CW
AW
DJ
AE (First off the bench)

That's when the rubber meets the road.

 

[huskeynut]

Forget about minutes.

Two minutes left in a tie game. Who is on the floor:
PB

CW
AW
DJ
AE (First off the bench)

I get all the initials but - who is AW?

And in crunch time - AE is not first off the bench. She's on the floor.

 

[EdSaid]

I get all the initials but - who is AW?

And in crunch time - AE is not first off the bench. She's on the floor.

My bad. AW is EW

I was right on the fence with AE. Every time I watch her play, I like her more.

Players that will take the shot, can make the shot, play defense, hungry to win.

On
DJ Every Big 10 game she played was a battle, very unlike the American or Big East
EW Has everyone's back and is on a mission
PB She beat SC all by herself
CW She needs to play like last season's postseason all season.
The Freshman can shoot lights out and has been in enough international competition to be ready.
**AE see above

Bench
ONO Remember the AZ game?
NM Great defensively, but streaky offensively.
AG My favorite player, but not a crunch time player.
Everyone else Hopefully 2-3-4 develop into that crunch time player.

 

[Zanzman]

I get all the initials but - who is AW?

And in crunch time - AE is not first off the bench. She's on the floor.

I’m guessing Evina Westbrook

 

[Skeets]

My bad. AW is EW

I was right on the fence with AE. Every time I watch her play, I like her more.

Players that will take the shot, can make the shot, play defense, hungry to win.

On
DJ Every Big 10 game she played was a battle, very unlike the American or Big East
EW Has everyone's back and is on a mission
PB She beat SC all by herself
CW She needs to play like last season's postseason all season.
The Freshman can shoot lights out and has been in enough international competition to be ready.
**AE see above

Bench
ONO Remember the AZ game?
NM Great defensively, but streaky offensively.
AG My favorite player, but not a crunch time player.
Everyone else Hopefully 2-3-4 develop into that crunch time player.

Are we having yet another ONO love fest here? IMO she's on the floor until she proves she shouldn't be.

 

[JoePgh]

Forget about minutes.

Two minutes left in a tie game. Who is on the floor:
PB

CW
AW
DJ
AE (First off the bench)

Obviously, it depends on who is playing well and shooting well in that particular game, which will vary from game to game. It also depends on who is in foul trouble. And it depends on the opponent and who is best equipped to defend the opponent's primary scoring threat(s).

My standard comment on all the "who starts?" threads is that Geno and Caroline Doty don't know, and probably won't know until the last week of preseason practice. Past performance and high school reputations are far less important than who does best in practice between October 15 and November 15.

And on the question that you pose here, Geno and Caroline Doty won't know the answer until the clock shows 2:00 in the 4th quarter. They could not answer the hypothetical question being stated here even if they were inclined to do so (which they aren't).

 

[D J B]

Are we having yet another ONO love fest here? IMO she's on the floor until she proves she shouldn't be.

To be fair, she's on the floor until someone else proves she shouldn't be.

 

[D J B]

Obviously, it depends on who is playing well and shooting well in that particular game, which will vary from game to game. It also depends on who is in foul trouble. And it depends on the opponent and who is best equipped to defend the opponent's primary scoring threat(s).

My standard comment on all the "who starts?" threads is that Geno and Caroline Doty don't know, and probably won't know until the last week of preseason practice. Past performance and high school reputations are far less important than who does best in practice between October 15 and November 15.

And on the question that you pose here, Geno and Caroline Doty won't know the answer until the clock shows 2:00 in the 4th quarter. They could not answer the hypothetical question being stated here even if they were inclined to do so (which they aren't).

Everything you say is true. No one knows anything at this point, if ever. No one ever knows what's going to happen until it happens. Folks here are just playing a speculation game until there are actual games, actual players able to begin the season, and a reasonable reality for actual possibilities. Even then, it's still just a guessing game.

We're bored, we're playing a simple "what if". This is just fun and games for now. Let it be.

 

[mhshuskies]

Geno basis critical minutes on who he can “trust”. The eight listed seems about right for the beginning of the season, but could easily see that expanded to ten, based on defensive performance. That may allow full court pressure which would be ideal!

 

[Majic Hands]

Reading all these thread of. Who's starting? Who's first off the bench? Who's in at the end? Who's in at crunch time?

I think I have the definitive answer. Coach will start every game with, 5 player. Coach will end the game with, 5 players.

There may be moments where it looks as if he's trying to play with 4 or 6 players but only for a moment before he gets it sorted.

I'm betting Coach will move players on and off the floor. Whenever he wants.

I'm thinking coach will be utilizing 2 of the taller front line players more often than just 1 or 3 of the taller front line players.

I think that if Coach wants to play up tempo, 40 minutes of aggressive defense & offence, and can get the kids to buy in, we could see a rotation of more players.

Some of the BYers probably can make an educated guess because Coach over the years has expressed how he likes to approach the game and we see what he does every year.

With the kids he now has. I'm beside myself with anticipation. Looking forward to this season getting underway.

 

[EasyEd]

I think Geno is going to play 7 players at a time to ensure everyone gets minutes and to guarantee a championship.

 

[Vowelguy]

A piece of advice: if you don’t think speculating is interesting or appropriate please put this thread on IGNORE.