Critical to win the National Championship

[Alydar]

What did Rivers do last season?

She averaged 13 min., shot 25% fg (23-99).
She shot 3.2% from 3 (1-31) and was a 50% ft shooter (12-24)

In the final four she played 20 min against Louis. and had 3 pts.
In the title game vs UConn she played 5 min and had 1pt.,

Charlie Creme: " But Saniya Rivers' move to Raleigh from South Carolina was Wes Moore's big score in the transfer portal. One of the country's top recruits in 2021, Rivers could flourish with more opportunity with the Wolfpack."

That's a "big score"? She was a top 5 recruit but so were Brady and Patterson and Creme didn't even mention them.

Creme thinks Azzi Fudd is a question mark though?

 

[Alydar]

Stymie, I have the same suspicion. This is not the same team fans have been accustomed to in the past few years. this is going to be a fast power team as their talent and skill set will be on full display.

It sure would appear that way. The front line will be incredibly deep if the freshmen contribute.

But over the years UConn has averaged 60-65 fg attempts/game and about 30% have been 3's. That means 18-20 3's/game. Most of those will come from Fudd/Ducharme/LLS/Muhl. Right now I wouldn't expect the entire frontcourt to take more than 3-4/game.

 

[hoophuskee]

I would not even bring it up unless I thought each of the player's I mentioned can reach the level I think is needed. If they don't for any reason (injuries or otherwise), I don't see a NC happening and even a FF is rough.

My thoughts.

For NC, Azzi needs to be 1st AA level. At least 2 players (from Dorka, Edwards, Caroline) need to play at a minimum 3rd team / Honorable Mention Level.

Not a historian but maybe someone can check what teams won a NC without a First team AA?

I'm 100% in agreement with you on all your posts. Incidentally, for UCONN's 11 titles, in 8 of them they had the WCBB of the year. One of the 3 they gave it to Beard instead of DT. So actually UCONN really had 9. Another year Stewart was actually the best player in the Tournament though Griner was the most dominant player.

And the 3rd year as you mention 3 players UCONN needs plus Azzi - well in 99-00 they had elite players - greater than your suggestion- All-Americans Bird, Ralph, and Sveta.

So just looking at past years they need that dominant type of player plus as you say- others that are either A/A or near A/A. If they don't get that-- then FF again will be extremely rough as it has been. And agree don't see a NC if they don't. But what they have is doable for NC to start season with.

 

[MilfordHusky]

To me, the question of whether the 2022-2023 Huskies can win a National Championship boils down to whether they can find that player to knock down shots in crunch time. We have seen Paige do it many times, most recently against NC State. But how many here remember the 2010 NC championship game against Stanford. No one could put the ball in the basket. Stanford led 20-12 at the half. Finally, Maya and Caroline Doty started to get shots to fall and the rest of the team loosened up to go on to a 53-47 victory. So with Paige out, I think the team will be able to replace many of Paige's stats against lesser opponents where we can build up a lead. There is lots of talent on this team, but the real question is whether greatness will emerge in pressure situations.

Exactly! In our losses last year, we had extended scoring droughts. In losses in prior years, the same was true. Look at the WNBA playoffs. Chicago lost when they had a scoring drought. Vegas won because they had few droughts--they could rely on Wilson, Gray, Plum, or even Young. If Azzi, Lou, Caroline, and the front court can score reliably, I like our chances.

 

[TeamFirst!]

Jim hit the nail on the head!!! The real question....

This is where Lou comes in. I think she can score against tough competition and she will at least help replace Paige.

 

[Bone Dog]

This is where Lou comes in. I think she can score against tough competition and she will at least help replace Paige.

Personally, I think that as a shooter Lou is comparable to Paige and Azzi. Note, I said comparable, not the same as. The real difference is probably going to become clear that she doesn't have the same all-around excellent game those two have. But as a replacement for Paige's scoring, Lou will not disappoint.

 

[Papa33]

Hokay, I'll take my stab at this.

But I think the other critical aspect of post play that's absolutely necessary is post passing. Olivia was good, but "if someone can develop into a Stef-Gabby-type post passer, that will bode very well. There are great possibilities to pass to in the low post and multiple good cutters and shooters, so a big with good court vision and quick decision making could be the difference."

Stef and Gabby, especially when they had the ball at or near the foul line, transformed our offense: both could spot cutters to the post and/or other "bigs" in the low post, and quickly get the ball to them. Both also made a high percentage of their own shots from the elbow or deeper, and draw defenders away from the low post. They also were often threats to take the ball in one dribble for a layup. Those were potent options that were not nearly so often employed in the last few years. I'm hoping our personnel this year will make those options happen.

 

[Alydar]

This is where Lou comes in. I think she can score against tough competition and she will at least help replace Paige.

She is a 3 level scorer. But what is encouraging are the comments on her mental state and her toughness. Will she perform at a high level in a big moment? My 8 ball says "the odds are good"

 

[cgshuskie]

I think Lou will be like a Clay Thompson for GS. Trail and pop. The 3, 2's even lay ups. I expect her to be the second option often.

 

[UConnCat]

Teams like ND or Louisville seem best able to weather a loss of a primary player -- Miles or Van Lith for example -- and still contend.

Just catching up on this thread and did a quadruple take on this statement. Contend for what? Middle of the pack in the ACC?

 

[Tonyc]

The reason why Paige carried us through the NC State game and the Stanford game is because Geno choose to have her carry the team and he knew she could. The reason why Caroline won some games for us when Paige and Azzi were out was because Geno choose her to carry us. That will change this season because Azzi and Caroline both can do it. Yes the loss of Paige is huge but this is a different team. Last season I dont think Geno had the confidence in other players that he had in Paige. This season we have more players and Azzi and Caroline have a year under their belts. There is no other team with an Azzi and Caroline. Because of the team we have, and I see balance and depth I feel we are a better team then last season.

 

[Alydar]

Great post Tony. I'd go further. UConn has a bunch of players who will have big games where they carry the team. Edwards and Juhasz have already had games like that. It's yet to be seen at this level but LLS has shown scoring ability. And it won't be too long before at least one of the freshmen is at the postgame PC.

 

[Bone Dog]

Just catching up on this thread and did a quadruple take on this statement. Contend for what? Middle of the pack in the ACC?

Both teams were contenders last season — for the elite 8 after all.

 

[UConnCat]

Both teams were contenders last season — elite 8 after all.

Not exactly. ND lost in the S16 last season.

More to the point, you said both teams could lose their best player -- Miles for ND and Hailey Van Lith for Louisville -- and still contend. Not sure for what but definitely not a national championship.

 

[hoophuskee]

It sure would appear that way. The front line will be incredibly deep if the freshmen contribute.

But over the years UConn has averaged 60-65 fg attempts/game and about 30% have been 3's. That means 18-20 3's/game. Most of those will come from Fudd/Ducharme/LLS/Muhl. Right now I wouldn't expect the entire frontcourt to take more than 3-4/game.

If what I read about Geno being impressed with Lou is accurate, then the offense scoring will still be mostly accomplished through guard play by trying to get your most consistent scorers as many shots as you can provided Azzi is able to get open, while Caroline improves on her outside shooting, and Lou, the 24 yo, is able to do her "thing." .

Dorka still has to learn to hit free throws while Edwards has not shown to be a natural scorer - yet. If just 1 of these 2 factors change then above can change. The other 3 bigs are big questions in regard to relying on very good scoring at this moment. And for the most part as a general rule going against other terrific teams the Huskies frontcourt isn't going to "wear down" other teams finely tuned well-coached young athletes. Less terrific teams - sure - possible - but not the terrific teams. And I haven't heard yet if Amari, Ayanna, or Brady have been dominating. If this changes then above can change.

Who knows though -- this team could very well be better off being a press team and then everything changes. I've hated the idea of fullcourt/ 3/4 court press game in and game out in the past - but this year very well could be. That potentially could be a lot of fun to watch too.

 

[Bone Dog]

Not exactly. ND lost in the S16 last season.

More to the point, you said both teams could lose their best player -- Miles for ND and Hailey Van Lith for Louisville -- and still contend. Not sure for what but definitely not a national championship.

You replied while I was correcting a typo. I meant, and subsequently corrected it, that they both contended for the elite 8. I don’t know about you but in my mind, any teams that make it past the sweet 16 are contenders. What’s more, ND only lost to NC St because of Raina’s last second heroics. Louisville made it to the FF, which absolutely makes them contenders.

You may well think neither of them really had a chance to beat SC, and I’d probably agree. But that doesn’t change the fact that these teams were contenders, as was Creighton.

 

[UConnCat]

You replied while I was correcting a typo. I meant, and subsequently corrected it, that they both contended for the elite 8. I don’t know about you but in my mind, any teams that make it past the sweet 16 are contenders. What’s more, ND only lost to NC St because of Raina’s last second heroics. Louisville made it to the FF, which absolutely makes them contenders.

You may well think neither of them really had a chance to beat SC, and I’d probably agree. But that doesn’t change the fact that these teams were contenders, as was Creighton.

Oh my god. You really are something.

Forget the typos. Forget what the teams did last season. Forget if, fully healthy, they're contenders this season. Here's what you said 4 days ago: Teams like ND or Louisville seem best able to weather a loss of a primary player -- Miles or Van Lith for example -- and still contend.

That's the statement I responded to. You stated Notre Dame could lose Olivia Miles and still contend for a national championship. Not even the most ardent Notre Dame fan would believe that for one minute. Have you looked at their roster?

You said Louisville could lose Hailey Van Lith and still contend for a national championship. Again, not even the most ardent Louisville fan would say something so silly.

 

[Cuango]

I think Jim hit the nail on the head! This team clearly has the talent and if Paige were healthy I would be ready to bet pretty high on their chances for number 12. As it is, I’m confident they can win it all but in order to change the can to will, we need someone (prferably more than one) who can/will raise her game in the big moments. I’m hopeful that Caroline can be that player. I think she is the most likely because she showed it last season against DePaul. Obviously, Azzi is another possibility and don’t sleep on Lou.
I’m hoping Lou is what old timers used to call a “curly wolf”! She’s seen the varmint and been over the mountain. Obviously, this is just a hope and a wish, but she is 24 years old, a grown woman playing with (by far) the most skilled teammates she’s ever played with, who has a chance to accomplish something she probably never seriously thought was possible. I believe we’re going to get the upgraded version of Lou 2.0 and she could possibly be the difference in our quest for #12!

 

[Bone Dog]

Oh my god. You really are something.

I offered an opinion. Disagree if you like. Save the insults and the condescension.

 

[UConnCat]

I offered an opinion. Disagree if you like. Save the insults and the condescension.

Opinions are great; we all have them. When challenged, supporting your opinion is better than playing rope-a-dope.

JMO.

 

[Bone Dog]

Opinions are great; we all have them. When challenged, supporting your opinion is better than playing rope-a-dope.

JMO.

Ok. Fine. Let’s recall the context you omitted: a discussion of what SC would be without Boston. A fair question when thinking about UConn without Paige. This led to the question of what the rest of the top ten would be without their best players. Iowa without Clark, Stanford without Jones, etc. In such a context, is it really so unreasonable (quadruple take unreasonable) to think that some teams might be less diminished by the loss of a primary player? If you don’t think ND and Louisville are those teams, propose others. If you don’t wish to, fine. And you can always pretend that others don’t have cogent opinions, or that they’re rope-a-doping. Whatever.

 

[cgshuskie]

I think Cuango got it right. Lou 2.0 could be the reason we get #12.