Creighton Scouting Report

[Fan1978]

Creighton (13-4)
#15 in KenPom
35h in minutes continuity (62.6%)​

23rd in Offensive efficiency

• 3rd w/ a 61.4 2P%
• 7th in 3PA/FGA (48.8%); 71th w/ a 36 3P%
• 47th in A/FGM (57.4%)
• 52nd w/ a 75.4 FT%, but just 331st in FTA/FGM
• 96th in turnover prevention
• 181st in offensive tempo
• 192nd in offensive rebounding rate

15th in Defensive efficiency

• 1st in FTA/FGM prevention
• 4th in 3PA/FGA prevention (27%); 39th in opp. 3P% (30.2%)
• 5th in A/FGM prevention (37.9%)
• 12th in defensive rebounding rate
• 25th in opp. 2P% (44.6%)
• Opponents spend 17.8 seconds/possession (283rd in tempo)
• 362nd in turnovers caused rate

Results from first Big East games

• OTL to Villanova 66-68
• 67-72 L to Marquette
• Four straight wins against Georgetown, Providence, DePaul and St. John’s
• Non-conference losses to Colorado State
• Non-conference wins to Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Alabama
• Non-conference schedule ranked 66th hardest

View attachment 95177

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Steven Ashworth 6’1 170 senior transfer from Utah State

Trey Alexander 6’4 190 junior

• 209th in usage rate
• Team’s third highest rated defender

Baylor Scheierman 6’7 205 fifth-year returnee

• 237th in usage rate; 395th in national offensive efficiency
• Teams second highest rated defender

Mason Miller 6’9 190 sophomore

• 6th nationally in offensive efficiency

Ryan Kalbrenner 7’1 270 senior

• 71st nationally in offensive efficiency
• Team’s highest rated defender

View attachment 95176
FREQUENTLY USED BENCH PIECES - 22.0% minutes (345th in nation)

• Since the start of Big East play, Farabello is the only bench piece who has played 6+ minutes in consecutive conference games.

Francisco Farabello 6’3 180 fifth-year returnee

• 426th nationally in offensive efficiency

UConn’s first half-dozen Big East opponents entered this season facing major roster facelifts while Creighton is one of the few teams in the conference with most of its key roster returning.

The biggest change has been Ryan Nembhard transferring to Gonzaga and Utah State senior Steven Ashworth taking his place in the starting lineup. After a 21.6% usage rate at Utah State, Ashworth’s rate has dipped to 16.9% at Creighton, who, along with Arthur Kaluma replacement Mason Miller, performs most of his scoring from the perimeter while opening up space for Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander to generate most of their offensive from the inside.

Ashworth is still the team’s point guard, but, like UConn, the team shares the ball very well with Scheierman and Alexander actually posting higher assist rates than Ashworth. Simply put, Mason Miller is an elite spacer with size, but an ultra-low usage guy, so much of Creighton’s offense is based on a three-man game between Alexander/Kalkbrenner/Scheierman.

Speaking of their usage rate, the trio all played 38+ minutes in their last game against St. John’s, which features six players playing 22+ minutes, one with six (redshirt freshman forward Isaac Traudt) and two other forwards playing one minute. Like last year, elite spacer Francisco Farabello returns in his role off the bench and is playing even more this year. Considering his low usage rate, he and Ashworth almost never share the floor together, but when they do, Creighton basically turns their offensive strategy into a two-man game with Kalkbrenner and Alexander along with three spacers: Farabello, Ashworth and Miler.

A downside of Kaluma and Nembhard transferring out: more of their scoring emphasis is on Kalkbrenner/Scheierman/Alexander – they are responsible for 62.8% of the team’s scoring while last year, the trio scored 55.4% of the team’s total.

The good news: they’re even better this year. Kalkbrenner is still an elite two-way center, but he’s even more willing to let it rip from three (17% of FGAs are from three, compared to 6% last year). Alexander is still an excellent offensive creator, but he’s increased his efficiency inside the arc and is now truly an all-around guard thanks to his increased assist rate (23.8% compared to 15.1% last year. Scheierman is still one of the most underheralded excellent wings in the nation – he’s a tough, savvy two-way star who has managed to so far increase his usage rate and his efficiency ratings. He’s even been able to foul even less despite his aggressive style of play.

In terms of matchup, obviously the biggest concern is Kalkbrenner. He rarely sits and this is the smallest squad we’ve played against Creighton with Kalkbrenner in the lineup. There are some parallels between Kalkbrenner and Soriano and UConn was able to hold Soriano to just 14 points back in December. However, Soriano is not surrounded with teammates as talented as Alexander and Scheierman and also, he doesn’t play in a system that spaces as well as Creighton. I have trouble picturing UConn defending him effectively without fouling a lot. Singare’s got five fouls to give, right?

In terms of stylistic matchups, there are plenty of intriguing mixes to explore: UConn moves the ball beautifully, but Creighton is elite at defending assist opportunities. Creighton is also the best team in the nation at preventing free throw opportunities, so it’ll be tough for Newton and Castle to break down the defense and get to the bucket. Creighton shoots a ton of threes, and UConn does a nice job preventing perimeter opportunities. UConn is an elite offensive rebounding team; Creighton is an elite defensive rebounding team. Creighton is also excellent at defending the perimeter, but Miller is one of their weakest defenders, so it’ll be interesting to see how Karaban plays against him when he’s at the power forward spot.

I’m not going to lie, with Clingan still out, this is easily the toughest matchup UConn has faced since the Kansas game. However, if Clingan can play…verrrrrry different story.

You are missing loss to unlv. Creighton is pretty much responsible for making mountain west a 5-6 bid league

 

[WhereistheDove?]

It’s a conference road game against a really good team, so it’ll be tough, but I still feel really good about this matchup. Castle really got to Scheierman last time and I’d expect we see no change in the game plan there. And we’re still an elite PnR defense, which really takes a bite out of Kalk’s value on the offensive end. We’re just an awful matchup for this Creighton squad.

 

[RichCTBB]

I don't think the guys are afraid of any road games at this point. I think they've tasted their own blood and are just getting to the point where they are playing with their prey before devouring it. Let's have a meal in Omaha

 

[caw]

Creighton has only played five teams with a top 35 Kenpom defense.

#33 (n) Colorado State (0-1). 69-48
#18 (home win) PC (1-1). 69-60 win, (78-78 regulation) 91-87 OT loss - both teams had a 45+ second half.
#17 @Marquette (0-1) 72-67
#19 Nova (0-1). 68-66
#11 @ UConn (0-1). 62-48

Of note, PC (127) is by far the worst offense by Kenpom of those five teams, followed by Nova (66).

Yes, I know this basically says Creighton loses to good teams but they did beat Alabama, Iowa and Nebraska. Who are very good to decent teams.

They have only two wins where they have scored fewer than 70 points (PC and SJU). Three of their last five come against Marquette, UConn and @Nova. It will be interesting to see if they can win those games because they haven't shown the ability to yet. Even in the one win (PC) they only put up 69 points.

 

[auror]

After the Marquette beatdown, Creighton has trap game written all over it. I hope our guys stay focused.

We call this specific type a "let-down game" crossed with a "game of their season". Short rest window traveling to the Midwest midweek and changing time zones to play a good team with a great crowd. Now, it seems like Hurley so far has done a good job avoiding these pitfall games (other than SHU) and has talked about it endlessly. We're not going to be overlooking them like a typical trap game, but we'll see what kind of energy the team has after that emotional win.

But whatever the spread ends up being (guessing opens -2 and bet up to -3.5), I'll probably take the points.

 

[Palatine]

Hoping for a bounce back game from Karaban and Castle. That would go a long way to a fun trip.

 

[UConnSwag11]

When was the last top 25 road win that we had? Could this be the first in the Hurley era if we win?

 

[auror]

When was the last top 25 road win that we had? Could this be the first in the Hurley era if we win?

We could basically count Gonzaga, but officially it doesn't count. Maybe 2011 at Texas?

 

[UConnSwag11]

We could basically count Gonzaga, but officially it doesn't count. Maybe 2011 at Texas?

I don’t think we count Gonzaga. But yeah, I’m not sure. Maybe @tcf15 @Storrs South @UConnStats knows?

 

[tykurez]

Yes, it would be the first win @ a top 25 team in the Hurley era.

 

[Storrs South]

I don’t think we count Gonzaga. But yeah, I’m not sure. Maybe @tcf15 @Storrs South @UConnStats knows?

January 16, 2014: @ Memphis

Connecticut vs. Memphis Box Score (Men), January 16, 2014 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Since that game UConn is 0-20 on the road v. top 25 opponents

 

[UChusky916]

After the Marquette beatdown, Creighton has trap game written all over it. I hope our guys stay focused.

Not sure a conference road game against a soon-to-be a top 15 team where UConn hasn't won since rejoining the Big East is a trap game.
It will be a tough test.

 

[F101Voodoo]

Not sure a conference road game against a soon-to-be a top 15 team where UConn hasn't won since rejoining the Big East is a trap game.
It will be a tough test.

My intuitive nature says that we may be subconciously fighting a letdown after the tremendous Winn over Marquette. This at least in the first part of the first half( once counted as quarters). Practically speaking for us to win out the regular season, take the whole thing in MSG, and the championship game is a lot to ask for.

 

[Fan1978]

Hoping for a bounce back game from Karaban and Castle. That would go a long way to a fun trip.

Count on it

 

[RichCTBB]

January 16, 2014: @ Memphis

Connecticut vs. Memphis Box Score (Men), January 16, 2014 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Since that game UConn is 0-20 on the road v. top 25 opponents

That stat is perfect bulletin board material

 

[Palatine]

Contrary to the opinion of some delusional posters, Creighton is certainly capable of beating us as they have in the past. However, at this point of the season we have been in a ton of hostile environments and we have already faced Creighton. This will be nothing new. They will be motivated but as defending National Champs and the current #1, everyone we play is motivated. Again nothing new. If we play our typical game we should win.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Contrary to the opinion of some delusional posters, Creighton is certainly capable of beating us as they have in the past. However, at this point of the season we have been in a ton of hostile environments and we have already faced Creighton. This will be nothing new. They will be motivated but as defending National Champs and the current #1, everyone we play is motivated. Again nothing new. If we play our typical game we should win.

Literally zero posters since the update was posted have stated that Creighton is not capable of beating us. The overwhelming opinion seems to be that this will be a really tough game.

 

[UConn Esq]

UConn -2 tomorrow at open! Interesting line…

 

[AllHusky]

UConn -2 tomorrow at open! Interesting line…

Take it!

 

[WhereistheDove?]

UConn -2 tomorrow at open! Interesting line…

Really good team playing on their home court. Not surprised it’s very tight.

 

[7774]

UConn -2 tomorrow at open! Interesting line…

Not really interesting, just what Kenpom expects.

 

[UConn Esq]

Not really interesting, just what Kenpom expects.

Well it moved to 4 already

 

[Palatine]

Literally zero posters since the update was posted have stated that Creighton is not capable of beating us. The overwhelming opinion seems to be that this will be a really tough game.

There is a thread title stating we are unbeatable. Do you read this board?

 

[Tenspro2002]

After the Marquette beatdown, Creighton has trap game written all over it. I hope our guys stay focused.

lol trap game? It's a top 15 road game! It's like our 3rd biggest regular season game of the year!

 

[WhereistheDove?]

There is a thread title stating we are unbeatable. Do you read this board?

I thought you were referring to this thread. Even in that thread, the VAST majority of posters think the OP is ridiculous. I would hazard a guess that very few posters here think a loss is out of the realm of possibility.