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How much toilet paper did you buy?Did you read farther into this thread, where the same doctor is advocating travel restrictions and avoiding large gatherings now.
How much toilet paper did you buy?Did you read farther into this thread, where the same doctor is advocating travel restrictions and avoiding large gatherings now.
The hysterical buying up toilet paper, beans, rice, and medical equipment is indeed insane. But limiting travel and cancelling large events, temporarily, to flatten the curve as we now say, is absolutely necessary; and is not an irrational response to a pandemic. Travel and large gatherings are the exact two things that led this to become a pandemic in the first place, and will only exacerbate it such that hospitals are overrun not just with the people who “might as well get checked out”; but with actual cases.THIS is EXACTLY the POINT I have been making in several threads and have been beaten up by numerous fear mongering posters on this site.... The world has lost its sense of reason and balance as evidenced by the cancelation of all sporting events, school years, and other gatherings, plus hoard-buying of anything and everything, even freaking toilet paper. Thankfully this insanity will eventually pass and life will get back to normal, but I am sad for the scars that will be left behind.
How much toilet paper did you buy?
Lol patheticHow much toilet paper did you buy?
please stop posting pictures of me. I have a little 'problem' with popcorn. so what? im getting help. whattayou perfect?
Here's a nice recent article chronicling the research done by Dr. Shi Zheng-Li, who has been investigating the role of bats and other mammals for SARS coronavirus infections for the past ~15 years.
Fascinating research. Of course, certain folk on here will argue that since she's from China, everything she's published in high-quality peer-reviewed literature (and corroborated by non-Chinese researchers) over this time should not be believed.
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How China's 'Bat Woman' Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus
Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out therewww.scientificamerican.com
NPR had an article 10 days ago that the actual death rate in China outside of Wuhan is around 0.4% which is less than 1 death per 100 people. Elderly and at-risk people should take precautions, but the 3-4% death rate number will start to decrease by the end of this
It's not at all what you've been saying, you got blowback because your posts were absolutely ridiculous.THIS is EXACTLY the POINT I have been making in several threads and have been beaten up by numerous fear mongering posters on this site.... The world has lost its sense of reason and balance as evidenced by the cancelation of all sporting events, school years, and other gatherings, plus hoard-buying of anything and everything, even freaking toilet paper. Thankfully this insanity will eventually pass and life will get back to normal, but I am sad for the scars that will be left behind.
If PJ is right we all die.
As we use to say "when you see a potential mate, if you don't connect you can't inject". Or, "keep in mind you need to bind"."The overall sequence 120 similarities between 2019 -nCoV spike and SARS -CoV spike (isolated from human, civet 121 or bat) are around 76% -78% for the whole protein, around 73% -76% for the RBD, and 50%-53% for the RBM (Fig. 3A, 3 B )" Source: https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/early/2020/01/23/JVI.00127-20.full.pdf. There is enough similarity to show that SARS-CoV-2 uses ACE2 as its receptor, but not much similarity.
At this point, it is just a hypothesis that the bats could be a pool for such a large variety of viruses that one of them might evolve to be a perfect infectious agent in humans. This is very much like the idea of monkeys typing randomly on typewriters and hoping they'll produce Shakespeare: it takes more monkeys than the numbers of atoms in the universe billions of years to have a chance. The chance of SARS-CoV-2 evolving in such a bat pool is hardly "perfectly plausible," it is statistically akin to the monkeys writing Shakespeare. There just aren't enough bats in the world to make a large enough reservoir for this to work.
Meanwhile the classic model, while it does rely on a series of rare events, is known to have happened many times in human history - most pathogens enter humans this way. It will generate pathogens regularly - but not pathogens as super-adapted to humans as SARS-CoV-2. The classic process can and no doubt did generate the 2002 SARS, but it cannot have generated SARS-CoV-2.
Debating whether Dr. Baric's hypothesis is plausible based on statistics is not necessary, because we can go to animals and search for viruses. If the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 was one of a diverse pool of randomly varying bat viruses is correct, we'll see a huge range of viruses in bats ranging in genomic similarity from 98% to 100%. In fact, we don't see any closer than 96%. The hypothesis is being disproven by ongoing research.
The fact that SARS-CoV-2 is related to previous SARS (at a low level) does not tell us its origins, because a bioengineer would also begin working from the SARS-CoV sequence. What is key is that the SARS-CoV-2 has improved human binding compared to all those others, but worse animal binding -- yet it did no evolution in humans. There is no natural process that can bring that about (apart from the gazillion monkeys typing hypothesis).
As we use to say "when you see a potential mate, if you don't connect you can't inject". Or, "keep in mind you need to bind".
Having the ability to attach to a receptor site is still only the first step in what's required to get a problem from viruses. For a molecule that's just considered passive, viruses have several parts to their molecular makeup in order to subvert any cell. Nature really is fascinating. Thanks for your information.
This virus ultimately has to be airborne in order to get to the lungs. We have to breathe it in. We don't breathe in droplets. We have to release the virus from those droplets into the air when we contact those droplets. Am I wrong?
"The overall sequence 120 similarities between 2019 -nCoV spike and SARS -CoV spike (isolated from human, civet 121 or bat) are around 76% -78% for the whole protein, around 73% -76% for the RBD, and 50%-53% for the RBM (Fig. 3A, 3 B )" Source: https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/early/2020/01/23/JVI.00127-20.full.pdf. There is enough similarity to show that SARS-CoV-2 uses ACE2 as its receptor, but not much similarity.
At this point, it is just a hypothesis that the bats could be a pool for such a large variety of viruses that one of them might evolve to be a perfect infectious agent in humans. This is very much like the idea of monkeys typing randomly on typewriters and hoping they'll produce Shakespeare: it takes more monkeys than the numbers of atoms in the universe billions of years to have a chance. The chance of SARS-CoV-2 evolving in such a bat pool is hardly "perfectly plausible," it is statistically akin to the monkeys writing Shakespeare. There just aren't enough bats in the world to make a large enough reservoir for this to work.
Meanwhile the classic model, while it does rely on a series of rare events, is known to have happened many times in human history - most pathogens enter humans this way. It will generate pathogens regularly - but not pathogens as super-adapted to humans as SARS-CoV-2. The classic process can and no doubt did generate the 2002 SARS, but it cannot have generated SARS-CoV-2.
Debating whether Dr. Baric's hypothesis is plausible based on statistics is not necessary, because we can go to animals and search for viruses. If the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 was one of a diverse pool of randomly varying bat viruses is correct, we'll see a huge range of viruses in bats ranging in genomic similarity from 98% to 100%. In fact, we don't see any closer than 96%. The hypothesis is being disproven by ongoing research.
The fact that SARS-CoV-2 is related to previous SARS (at a low level) does not tell us its origins, because a bioengineer would also begin working from the SARS-CoV sequence. What is key is that the SARS-CoV-2 has improved human binding compared to all those others, but worse animal binding -- yet it did no evolution in humans. There is no natural process that can bring that about (apart from the gazillion monkeys typing hypothesis).
virological.org
Can we trust our government to be truthful?We cant trust the China numbers, why would that government start being truthful? Let’s see if their supply chains reopen AND the virus does not boomerang back. This will take a few weeks. I’m watching Italy who is probably 3 weeks ahead of us. They made a number of mistakes, not banning travel fast enough, especially from China. Hindsight is 20/20 but they should have locked down sooner.
This makes your posts in this thread even more terrifyingJBM, I have no idea why you think I don't understand infectivity and the molecular biology of binding. I am a PhD scientist with decades of experience in molecular biology and therapeutics. The reason I pointed to gene sequence similarity is because it addresses the question of virus origins. I was not discussing virulence at all.
As for the data in bats, there is no evidence at all of strain evolution in bats toward or anywhere near SARS-CoV-2. There is no evidence of a bat pool of coronavirus diversity that encompasses any of the key genetic components of SARS-CoV-2, much less the whole virus.
Obviously, I was persuaded by the Tang et al report that there are two strains, a lethal strain that first appeared in November in Wuhan and is responsible for the high early death rate and the high death rate in places like Iran that received the lethal strain, and a weakened strain that first appeared in China in December or January. I think that aspect of the paper is highly likely to be correct, as it is hard to imagine another explanation for the extreme variations we've seen in lethality by outbreak, some outbreaks at 5-20% lethality and some at 0.1-1% lethality. The critique of Tang et al you point to makes some reasonable objections to issues with the Tang paper (which I think cannot be totally honest due to constraints from the Chinese government), but they don't refute the idea that there are L and S strains. I think Tang et al know more than they have said and have highlighted for us two key mutations which, as time will show, greatly weaken virulence and turn the virus into a de facto "vaccine" against the lethal version.
All of these questions will be resolved as we get more sequences from patients in the West and correlate them with outcomes, and observe whether and in what circumstances re-infections occur.
As for your idea that most deaths were early and now there is some health care response that is mitigating death -- no, not in Italy. The healthcare response is not substantially better now in Europe than it was in Wuhan in January. If more people died in Wuhan, it is because the strain they contracted was more lethal. That lethal strain still has the potential to grow and spread. We are not yet safe from it.
I really wasn't asking. I was highlighting the weak link to what has been developing in this country - droplets can remain in the air for up to ten minutes (That's a consensus number. I linked a study in another thread that indicated 45 minutes is possible).I'm not sure exactly what you are asking, but:
- When people exhale, cough, or sneeze, the virus comes out in droplets that can remain in the air for up to ten minutes and travel up to 20 feet.
- Then the droplets fall in surfaces and can last for up to several days, where they can be touched and picked up by fingers, which then infect a person when the fingers touch nose, mouth, or eyes.
- Humidity and warmth protect against viral transmission. Masks protect, both by preventing breathing of aerosol viruses and preventing touching of nose or mouth. Washing hands with hot water and soap, or alcohol, protects.
- Drinking water protects, as viruses are digested and destroyed if swallowed. They have to reach the lungs.
- Once in the lungs they enter cells via the ACE2 receptor on epithelial cells and replicate. The inflammatory response to the viruses can cause the air sacs of the lung to fill up with fluid and mucus, causing suffocation. That is why in severe cases you need oxygen, to make up for the loss of lung capacity.
Question about the droplets with the virus that are exhaled....does the infected person need to be symptomatic to expel the droplets?I'm not sure exactly what you are asking, but:
- When people exhale, cough, or sneeze, the virus comes out in droplets that can remain in the air for up to ten minutes and travel up to 20 feet.
- Then the droplets fall in surfaces and can last for up to several days, where they can be touched and picked up by fingers, which then infect a person when the fingers touch nose, mouth, or eyes.
- Humidity and warmth protect against viral transmission. Masks protect, both by preventing breathing of aerosol viruses and preventing touching of nose or mouth. Washing hands with hot water and soap, or alcohol, protects.
- Drinking water protects, as viruses are digested and destroyed if swallowed. They have to reach the lungs.
- Once in the lungs they enter cells via the ACE2 receptor on epithelial cells and replicate. The inflammatory response to the viruses can cause the air sacs of the lung to fill up with fluid and mucus, causing suffocation. That is why in severe cases you need oxygen, to make up for the loss of lung capacity.
Question about the droplets with the virus that are exhaled....does the infected person need to be symptomatic to expel the droplets?
What I'm getting at is since the droplets can remain in the air for 10 minutes when out in public at grocery, pharmacy do we need to at this point be wearing a mask since infected could unknowingly be spreading the virus if not symptomatic just by breathing?
the things you discover once you discuss another topic...Interesting how we can go years of talking basketball and never really know some other posters are flipping morons, whackos or conspiracy theorist until a pandemic occurs.
This makes your posts in this thread even more terrifying
Can we trust our government to be truthful?